Improbable? Surely they didn't use that word. That would make your argument weaker than it already is. But no. I believe they were referring to the current incentives at that time.
If it'll make you feel better, I can just agree with you. Whether they lied, misconstrued, spoke vaguely, etc... or not doesn't matter to me. Whatever it is, it was 100% worth it for all the whining, bitching, and pitiful port begging that's happened as a result.
You think big bad scary MS mislead regulators? Sure, fine, whatever. Cry more.