And no one is ignoring the 10-year contract because I touched on it. It went from 3 to 10 years, if they were serious about it, then they would've offered 10 years from the jump or even agreed to a longer deal.
It wasn't 3 year deal, but 3 years on top of existing contract which is ending in 2026 (I think) (so until 2029 probs). And If your theory is correct and Microsoft wants to took away COD from PlayStation, why on Earth would they offer 3 more years preemptively in January when no concerns from regulators was raised? You would think that if Microsoft is so obsessed about making COD exclusive, they would offer no contract until they are forced by regulators, right? Otherwise what was the point?
Sony knows that COD will stay on PlayStation even without deal. Everybody with brain cells knows that. COD is game developed by 8 studios and is designed to recoup development cost back not only by selling game for 80€, but with live service. And to have successful live service you need every possible player imaginable. Also, you are shutting down potential new entrant on the market by keeping game multiplatform. Sony just keeps pressing on this issue because they want this deal blocked. Not because they are afraid that they will loose Call of Duty. They are afraid of COD on Game Pass, so they want deal shut down in it's entirety.
Otherwise why the fuck are they not accepting deal that would make sure that they will have COD until 2036? Even with option to have COD on PS Plus? Because to accept this deal they would probably be required to drop objections about this deal. Which they are not willing to do, because they want it to shut down. It's hardball from their side of court because if they loose they would be without a deal, but there is 0% chance that Microsoft will make COD exclusive even without it.
Will Microsoft make some ABK games exclusive after buyout? Yup. Plenty. But not COD, not Overwatch. Because they live a breathe thanks to huge audience. They need it to continue making new content for that games.