Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Canada coming in with a body blow. Microsoft out here trying to say every regulator is on their side when the reality is the regulators in their largest markets -- US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- all have issues with it. Turns out the only "worldwide" regulators who don't have an issue are the ones where Xbox is largely market irrelevant. (Edit: And the EU, who is salivating at the prospect of fines.)

Funny that.
 
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The way I see it, there's now more than enough evidence to prove what's the plan behind these acquisitions which is taking advantage of the financial strength of the company to damage competitors and build dominant positions in emergent markets.
Microsoft has only been able to justify themselves with a "committment to make things differently with Activision".

Now it's all about the legal system and if these concerns are enough or not to warrant the PI.
But the concerns themselves are undeniable.
 
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CMA got told.
 
splattered said:
Is this deal going to go through or not? It's so all over the place and confusing... haha

staring alfred hitchcock GIF
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No idea. As I said yesterday, I'm not even going to try to predict. Everyone was absolutely convinced the CMA would rule in favor of Microsoft and were shocked when they didn't. I could see the Judge getting to her decision and starting off with a long discussion that makes it sound like it's going Microsoft's way, then turning around with a "but, I have concerns of such-and-such" and ruling for the FTC. I could see the exact opposite happening as well.
 
Dick Jones said:
MS did lie, it's just that they didn't have to lie as that acquisition would have been allowed. Still stupid to mislead as it weakens the word when you go for acquisitions in the future.
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On top of that, MS specified conditions for 'case-by-case' exclusivity. Those conditions were that the game had to make sense to help either drive system sales beyond a certain baseline, or drive sub growth beyond a certain baseline, without being offset by leaving "money on the table" skipping other console platforms, to make the exclusivity make sense.

That's why games like RedFall and (maybe) HiFi Rush make sense as Xbox console exclusives, but why games like Starfield and TES VI do not. This is going by Microsoft's own conditional statements provided to regulators like the EC, btw, not what I personally feel would make sense. IMO they could just make everything exclusive since it's now their property, but MS didn't message that to regulators when getting the Zenimax deal passed through.

And with the Indiana Jones exclusivity in particular, have actively reneged on the conditions for case-by-case exclusivity they themselves gave to regulators for the Zenimax approval.
 
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splattered said:
Is this deal going to go through or not? It's so all over the place and confusing... haha

staring alfred hitchcock GIF
Click to expand...
A lot of people don't understand what is going on so they exaggerate whatever click bait supports their narrative.

As of now, of the FTC wins the PI the deal is dead. However, the FTC winning is very unlikely.

It's a high bar to get the PI granted.
 
Nydius said:
Canada coming in with a body blow. Microsoft out here trying to say every regulator is on their side when the reality is the regulators in their largest markets -- US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- all have issues with it. Turns out the only "worldwide" regulators who don't have an issue are the ones where Xbox is largely market irrelevant.

Funny that.
Click to expand...
People have to be naïve to think that it is all chance and not strategy that Canada's regulator has come out at this precise moment.

It is more than clear They have come to the rescue of the FTC with which it always agrees and delegates to decide on these cases. It is the same case that the UK with the regulators of NZ and Australia have always been aligned.
The CANADA thing is nothing more than a measure of pressure on Judge Corley since the deadline to block in Canada has passed.
 
NickFire said:
Let's put aside that Phil's testimony about future plans means almost nothing for a second.

Instead, let's focus on this exchange. Cause it sounds to me like someone either lied in corporate email records, or lied under oath about Elder Scrolls plans being uncertain. Is there any reason my interpretation would be wrong?
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I think that it means that Phil lied under oath a few days ago. It's strange, because I'm sure they had access to the emails before the hearing.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
1. Read my comment. I didn't say Microsoft made a commitment. I said they told EC that they have no financial incentive ... all the details are in my comment. And there is a clear lie.

2. The "new IPs only" argument has been just debunked.

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1. this what FTC said, and EC replied back saying that this is not true and they did not make their decision whether Microsoft had incentive or not

The absence of competition concerns "did not rely on any statements made by Microsoft about the future distribution strategy concerning ZeniMax's games," said the commission, which itself has opened an in-depth probe into the Activision Blizzard deal and appears keen to clarify what happened in the previous acquisition.

The EU agency found that even if Microsoft were to restrict access to ZeniMax titles, it wouldn't have a significant impact on competition because rivals wouldn't be denied access to an "essential input," and other consoles would still have a "large array" of attractive content.
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2. I saw the tweet, and that I replied directly to. When Stuart said "this is new IP", it implies that he assumed it is matching with his earlier model. His surprise was with that now all titles are now exclusives. This would indicate a change from model 4 to 5, not like model 1 to 5! (full multiplatform to full exclusivity)
 
tmlDan said:



Was this already shared? cause im surprised, Canada allows monopolies or duopolies like crazy, thats why everything's expensive here
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lol I was thinking the same thing - Canada doesn't have the best history with recognizing anti-competitive behavior. Hopefully, the tide is changing and this is indicative of that.
 
Darsxx82 said:
People have to be naïve to think that it is all chance and not strategy that Canada's regulator has come out at this precise moment.
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I don't think anyone believes it's chance. But whether it's strategic or not is irrelevant. It doesn't change the fact that Canada's regulators have issues. Doesn't change the fact that it disproves Microsoft's assertion that "all the regulators but the FTC" have issues with the deal. Doesn't change the fact that the regulators in all of Xbox's major markets, with exception to the EU, have issues with the deal and believe it reduces competition.
 
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Nydius said:
Canada coming in with a body blow. Microsoft out here trying to say every regulator is on their side when the reality is the regulators in their largest markets -- US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- all have issues with it. Turns out the only "worldwide" regulators who don't have an issue are the ones where Xbox is largely market irrelevant.

Funny that.
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And in a letter to the judge, no less.
 
Well I thought from the beginning that the FTC was making a poor case but I think there is now enough evidence to at least cast a shadow of doubt over what Microsoft will do if the deal goes through. The judge did issue a restraining order when everyone thought she wouldn't... I don't know... I'm 50/50 on this right now.
As for the CMA, the biggest challenge there is still on Microsoft's side.
 
This deal is gonna go through and im gonna be happy when it does.

Sony gets all the cookies. Uses every trick in the book to keep exclusivity like DLC stuff, for months, even a year in some cases.

I loved my PS4 but arrogant Sony can fuck off. I dont even own an Xbox but still.
 
My understanding is that Canada had a window of opportunity to block the deal and they (by not saying anything)allowed it to pass. Its weird how this plus the CMA requesting the extension is happening during the closing arguments with the FTC. It feels like everyone thinks Microsoft is closing if the injunction fails.
 
MMaRsu said:
This deal is gonna go through and im gonna be happy when it does.

Sony gets all the cookies. Uses every trick in the book to keep exclusivity like DLC stuff, for months, even a year in some cases.

I loved my PS4 but arrogant Sony can fuck off. I dont even own an Xbox but still.
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There is now enough evidence to suggest that Microsoft did this intentionally to put the other companies out of business. Plus, it seems they've lied several times. And there are no guarantees that Microsoft will stick with its word going forward.

This merger should not go ahead.
 
MMaRsu said:
This deal is gonna go through and im gonna be happy when it does.

Sony gets all the cookies. Uses every trick in the book to keep exclusivity like DLC stuff, for months, even a year in some cases.

I loved my PS4 but arrogant Sony can fuck off. I dont even own an Xbox but still.
Click to expand...
Your Free Xbox® GamePass™ T-shirt will be shipped shortly
 
MMaRsu said:
This deal is gonna go through and im gonna be happy when it does.

Sony gets all the cookies. Uses every trick in the book to keep exclusivity like DLC stuff, for months, even a year in some cases.

I loved my PS4 but arrogant Sony can fuck off. I dont even own an Xbox but still.
Click to expand...
pepsi GIF
 
MMaRsu said:
This deal is gonna go through and im gonna be happy when it does.

Sony gets all the cookies. Uses every trick in the book to keep exclusivity like DLC stuff, for months, even a year in some cases.

I loved my PS4 but arrogant Sony can fuck off. I dont even own an Xbox but still.
Click to expand...

Best thing about all of this is we finally see Microsoft is just as bad as Sony behind closed doors. How anyone comes out of this not seeing it is beyond me.
 
Jigsaah said:
I don't get it. If they concluded this, shouldn't they have just blocked the deal? Why still approve it?

It sounds like this whole trial could have been avoided.
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Did Canada even make a public decision?

Seems like Canada is sticking its nose into things because Microsoft got caught trying to sweep them under the rug.
 
MMaRsu said:
This deal is gonna go through and im gonna be happy when it does.

Sony gets all the cookies. Uses every trick in the book to keep exclusivity like DLC stuff, for months, even a year in some cases.

I loved my PS4 but arrogant Sony can fuck off. I dont even own an Xbox but still.
Click to expand...
I hope you're joking but it's so hard to tell these days because there are some users on here who would say this earnestly so very much Poe's Law at work
Sarcastic Uh Huh GIF by GIPHY Studios 2021
 
Kittehkraken said:
Did Canada even make a public decision?

Seems like Canada is sticking its nose into things because Microsoft got caught trying to sweep them under the rug.
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Oh ok, so I thought all the decisions were made in terms of the regulators and concluded that only the CMA blocked. Didn't know Canada was sitting on their hands.
 
Oh dang! This current testimony is also going to be damning 😄

Tim was asked to calculate how a decrease in PlayStation revenue because of ABK games would help increase Xbox revenue (in case I didn't mishear anything because of the bad audio).

Why was the board interested in this calculation if the intention was never to make ABK games exclusive 😄
 
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