Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Glad to see that all parties are coming to the table to make an agreement. I will say, many posts in this thread did not age well. No one should ever think something is impossible or guaranteed not to happen.
 
adamsapple said:
Yes, they have paused litigation and have reopened negotiations with MS. They were likely waiting on the FTC case result to make a comment on it one way or the other.
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Interesting.

If I'm not mistaken, that means the CMA reaching out to MS rather than vice versa. My hunch, and it's no more than that, is that they've reconsidered their market definition.
 
M1chl said:
The implication of this for anything in tech industry is pretty terrifying. I was initially, yeah well who the fuck cares, CoD last good game 10 years ago and then start to look into it and the potential which Tencent, Amazon and other companies now have is...well not great. As much as green fanboy I am, it was good that Nvidia got a boot. And that was half the money of this...

Since the IT sector is kind of new, the regulation isn't there (outside of the EU), so well, rough times ahead I guess. Maybe I am wrong since, I've been through a rough time lately.
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Markets don't need regulation, anti trust laws and ftc should be blown into outer space.
 
Fabieter said:
As long as I don't have hard numbers I dont trust gamepass to not be a lossleader. Its meant to force competition in a field where they don't have the resources to actually compete.
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This is precisely what gamepass is. MS couldn't compete with Nintendo and Sony, so they essentially changed the entire gaming industry into a loss-leader driven race to the bottom. Only MS and a handful of other mega-caps can compete in this new industry

"When you talk about Nintendo and Sony, we have a ton of respect for them, but we see Amazon and Google as the main competitors going forward," says Spencer. - https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/5/2...itors-phil-spencer-cloud-gaming-amazon-google

The writing has been on the wall for a while and with MS being allowed to complete this acquisition, the hand brake is off.
 
RickMasters said:
true. aslong as they promise to keep it everywhere I wouldnt see any foreclosure arguments being made on MS part.
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There would be no argument on Microsofts part because no regulatory body will sue. Sony won't be challenged over a 10 to 20 billion dollar aquisition. They are free to buy whatever unchecked.
 
Bernardougf said:
Only if MS is ready to burn endless money in a unsustainable business model until they dominate the industry, and this may well be their plans.. and if its well....dont know if sony can stop that... but they can play to their strenghs just like nintendo does
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Game Pass is profitable and they're already experimenting with ways to improve the profit margin with paid Early Access upgrades to the base game that comes included with Game Pass.

foamdino said:
This is precisely what gamepass is. MS couldn't compete with Nintendo and Sony, so they essentially changed the entire gaming industry into a loss-leader driven race to the bottom.
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Game Pass is profitable.
 
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mayham2199 said:
MS and CMA agreed to negotiation so quickly it suggest to me that this was already setup and ready to go based on how the FTC decision went. There is no way as soon as this was announced the CMA got on the phone, got ahold of MS and got all this done so quickly. I bet this meeting was already setup before hand if MS wins against the FTC.
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Obviously. moreover, in my opinion ms and cma could also announce during the week (in any case before the 18th) that they have clarified the remedies and microsoft will finalize the acquisition
 
SlimySnake said:
None of those game publishers compete with CoD. CoD players couldnt care less about FF16 or RE4. Just look at the sales. 3 million each. CoD sells 15 million in a weekend.

Cyberpunk + Witcher are WRPGs that have a completely different audience primarily on PC anyway. The only purchase sony can make is Rockstar/Take2 for GTA. Bungie, CD Project, Ubisoft, are all B players when it comes to CoD and GTA domination.

If sony is interested in saving their business, thats their only play. The other purchases are going to be a bandaid that will not stop the bleeding. If they dont go and buy Rockstar/Take2, they are probably looking to sell their PS division to tencent or apple/amazon. At the hearing, they effectively argued that they couldnt survive without the CoD userbase so maybe they have already thrown the towel behind the scenes. I guess we will find out if they make a play for Rockstar in the next few days.
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Come on, man, this is just ridiculous hyperbole.

For one, Microsoft will not be taking COD from Playstation anytime soon. They primarily want COD to drive Game Pass subscriptions. According to reports, over 1M Playstation players play nothing but COD. Those players will look at COD on Game Pass, the $11/month price, all the early access and extra content, and will jump ship.

COD is making too much money on Playstation for Microsoft to remove it from there. If they do, it'll be in 10+ years. Their interest is in Game Pass. They're trying to steer the customers to that service and attempt to turn gaming into Netflix and if they succeed, then they can drown Sony because Sony doesn't have the infrastructure, manpower, or budget to compete with Microsoft in cloud services.

Sony will be fine. COD will remain there and the PS5 will continue selling like hotcakes.
 
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NickFire said:
I think she comes out of this looking like an absolute clown. I never really understood why they actually filed in light of CMA block at the time, and suspected she was trying to make a name for herself with a last second injunction they did not actually need (so she could claim credit for CMA work). And now she has nothing to point to that makes her look good. Rather, it looks a lot like she just killed any momentum that even the CMA had at one point.

With respect to reforms, let's be real. The people who determine reforms are legislators. 1/2 of them in US will support whoever has the most $. Another half will pretend they don't but then vote for them anyway. She didn't win a darn thing.
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Her stated goal wasn't about winning cases but setting precedents to push for reforms. She and several congressmen have been about that.
 
Solidus_T said:
This is their plan, revealed in the "thought experiment" emails. The thing is that, in looking for the next "Disney" as MS is trying to do to prevent having to make content, Nintendo is even kicking their ass while being a smaller company than ABK. Even this plan may backfire and Nintendo and Sony will still be on top, albeit with Sony considerably crippled by the removal of every Zenimax and ABK game.
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Sony needs the CoD and PSN revenue CoD players bring to fund their $200 million AAA games. CoD brings in $800 million from NA alone. Likely $1.5 billion worldwide. You remove that and thats it. no more AAA games. Nintendo has never relied on CoD and has continued to fund their games by releasing profitable handhelds and cheaper B games while they wait for an AAA zelda and mario game once every 6 years. Sony has to release 2-4 AAA games every year and they simply cannot afford to do that without the CoD revenue.

And thats just the CoD revenue. PS+ has 46 million subscribers bringing in $3-4 billion a year. If sony loses half of that, they are down $3 billion. That was their entire profit margin the last couple of years. Yes, they can always downscale and become a different company like Nintendo but it will not be the Sony we know today.

If this sounds alarmist then just look at the evidence sony presented to the FTC, they literally made the same case.

Gaiff said:
Come on, man, this is just ridiculous hyperbole.

For one, Microsoft will not be taking COD from Playstation anytime soon. They primarily want COD to drive Game Pass subscriptions. According to reports, over 1M Playstation players play nothing but COD. Those players will look at COD on Game Pass, the $11/month price, all the early access and extra content, and will jump ship.

COD is making too much money on Playstation for Microsoft to remove it from there. If they do, it'll be in 10+ years. Their interest is in Game Pass. They're trying to steer the customers to that service and attempt to turn gaming into Netflix and if they succeed, then they can drown Sony because Sony doesn't have the infrastructure, manpower, or budget to compete with Microsoft in cloud services.

Sony will be fine. COD will remain there and the PS5 will continue selling like hotcakes.
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This is straight from Sony. If they believe they cant survive without CoD, im inclined to believe them. They might survive but as a different company. Nintendo had to release last gen hardware and become a handheld only developer, maybe sony will have to create their own niche.

And MS refused to offer sony guarantees. Just look at the emails between Jim and Phil. And Phil's subordinates. CoD wasnt bought for gamepass, it was bought to kill Sony. its literally in the emails.
 
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TheDreadLord said:
Where are all gaf merger/acquisition specialists? Honest question 😂
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if theres one thing we learned today, nobody knows shit
mayham2199 said:
MS and CMA agreed to negotiation so quickly it suggest to me that this was already setup and ready to go based on how the FTC decision went. There is no way as soon as this was announced the CMA got on the phone, got ahold of MS and got all this done so quickly. I bet this meeting was already setup before hand if MS wins against the FTC.
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we heard weeks ago MS and the CMA had a meeting. this was probably what it was about. imo, ms told them if we beat the FTC, we're closing with or without you, so lets sit at the table and work it out.
 
thicc_girls_are_teh_best said:
Those acquisitions outside of Bungie were for developers only, and outside of Nixxes, for devs that either worked exclusively on PlayStation anyway or focused vastly on PlayStation platforms.

Sony's acquisition strategy was never the same as Microsoft's, they never made acquisitions intending to take away 3P partners from Microsoft or remove content that was prolific on Xbox platforms. "Oh but they did that anyway with 3P exclusivity deals!" Yeah you mean the same ones Microsoft did in the past, still do today, and could have competed with Sony to get if they were actually wanting to compete?

And what big 3P exclusives have Sony even gotten so far this gen outside of Forspoken and Final Fantasy games? How does Sony having 3P exclusivity on two IP (one a brand new IP, the other simply for the mainline games) even equate to "buying up 3P exclusivity from all the big 3P" or whatever Imran Khan was yelling about back in 2020?
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Not disagreeing with you, but this purchase is just MS flexing their wallets and rightly so. They were getting squeezed out by Sony and having to pay more to make the same deals due to their lack of playerbase/marketshare.
These deals have been bad for the industry for years, and at this point you cant be mad at MS deciding that its more feasible for them to buy the publisher than pay more everytime. This is definition of good business.
If anything we should be pissed that the end result of these deals regardless of who has done them, has resulted in the consolidation in the gaming market.
 
zapper said:
Obviously. moreover, in my opinion ms and cma could also announce during the week (in any case before the 18th) that they have clarified the remedies and microsoft will finalize the acquisition
Click to expand...

I don't know what will happen but I think the outcome of this deal will be decided before the 18th one way or the other. Either CMA agrees with MS and allows it go through or CMA doesn't and I think the deal is dead after that. I don't think there are any plans to extend the deal at all.
 
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Gaiff said:
For one, Microsoft will not be taking COD from Playstation anytime soon. They primarily want COD to drive Game Pass subscriptions. According to reports, over 1M Playstation players play nothing but COD. Those players will look at COD on Game Pass, the $11/month price, all the early access and extra content, and will jump ship.
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COD needs paid online, so wouldn't it be 17 per month?

I don't see people jumping ship who only play COD just for the privilege of over-paying. But making it excusive next generation would be a big deal.
 
Gaiff said:
Come on, man, this is just ridiculous hyperbole.

For one, Microsoft will not be taking COD from Playstation anytime soon. They primarily want COD to drive Game Pass subscriptions. According to reports, over 1M Playstation players play nothing but COD. Those players will look at COD on Game Pass, the $11/month price, all the early access and extra content, and will jump ship.

COD is making too much money on Playstation for Microsoft to remove it from there. If they do, it'll be in 10+ years. Their interest is in Game Pass. They're trying to steer the customers to that service and turn gaming into Netflix and if they succeed, then they can drown Sony because Sony doesn't have the infrastructure, manpower, or budget to compete with Microsoft in cloud services.

Sony will be fine. COD will remain there and the PS5 will continue selling like hotcakes.
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Imagine how much hyperbole you'd see if Sony was actually in 3rd place ever (hasn't ever happened since PS1). Now imagine if they were in 3rd place for 20 years. Some people are completely detached from reality.
 
SlimySnake said:
Sony needs the CoD and PSN revenue CoD players bring to fund their $200 million AAA games. CoD brings in $800 million from NA alone. Likely $1.5 billion worldwide. You remove that and thats it. no more AAA games. Nintendo has never relied on CoD and has continued to fund their games by releasing profitable handhelds and cheaper B games while they wait for an AAA zelda and mario game once every 6 years. Sony has to release 2-4 AAA games every year and they simply cannot afford to do that without the CoD revenue.

And thats just the CoD revenue. PS+ has 46 million subscribers bringing in $3-4 billion a year. If sony loses half of that, they are down $3 billion. That was their entire profit margin the last couple of years. Yes, they can always downscale and become a different company like Nintendo but it will not be the Sony we know today.

If this sounds alarmist then just look at the evidence sony presented to the FTC, they literally made the same case.
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I mean, to be fair, if (when) Microsoft continues to release COD on Playstation, they won't lose all that revenue. It will be cut down a bit. They'll need to compete in another way. Sony's got the chops, I think they'll be fine.
 
M1chl said:
You are in favor of monopolies? Why would you be, as a consumer you already have little choice, want even less?
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Point free market monopolies that have survived the test of time. That's right they don't exist. If there actually was a free market monopoly, they would simply provide by far the best product at best price. I don't see how consumers lose in that scenario.
 
Not_A-Cop_Maybe said:
Not disagreeing with you, but this purchase is just MS flexing their wallets and rightly so. They were getting squeezed out by Sony and having to pay more to make the same deals due to their lack of playerbase/marketshare.
These deals have been bad for the industry for years, and at this point you cant be mad at MS deciding that its more feasible for them to buy the publisher than pay more everytime. This is definition of good business.
If anything we should be pissed that the end result of these deals regardless of who has done them, has resulted in the consolidation in the gaming market.
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This is not correct.

Microsoft just recently outbid Sony for 2 games exclusivity and subscription service rights: Valheim and Immortality. We just learned about these 2 games from the court case. There'd be plenty of others.
 
foamdino said:
This is precisely what gamepass is. MS couldn't compete with Nintendo and Sony, so they essentially changed the entire gaming industry into a loss-leader driven race to the bottom. Only MS and a handful of other mega-caps can compete in this new industry

"When you talk about Nintendo and Sony, we have a ton of respect for them, but we see Amazon and Google as the main competitors going forward," says Spencer. - https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/5/2...itors-phil-spencer-cloud-gaming-amazon-google

The writing has been on the wall for a while and with MS being allowed to complete this acquisition, the hand brake is off.
Click to expand...

Yes! this makes me soo sad but it makes sure i will be exclusively play retro games earlier than I thought. Iam just shocked how shortsighted people are for some short term gains.
 
Jigsaah said:
I mean, to be fair, if (when) Microsoft continues to release COD on Playstation, they won't lose all that revenue. It will be cut down a bit. They'll need to compete in another way. Sony's got the chops, I think they'll be fine.
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Microsoft's offer for CoD on Playstation held that MS would get 100% of the revenue, so even in that ridiculous scenario offered by MS, Sony still loses the revenue from the game.
 
Who cares, no legal ground, no rhetoric, nothing can block Playstation purchasing Capcom, or Kadokawa, or Konami, or whoever else now
 
GLCEGBQ.jpg



Riky Riky Leaving laugh reactions to my posts from almost 2 months ago... yikes. :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 
Vox Machina said:
Game Pass is profitable and they're already experimenting with ways to improve the profit margin with paid Early Access upgrades to the base game that comes included with Game Pass.



Game Pass is profitable.
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They have never, not once, shown the financials for gamepass - so forgive me if I don't trust a thing out of Phil "trust me bro" Spencer's mouth.
 
boblob said:
Playstation Studios have made 9 acquisitions since 2021.

MS raised the game to new heights, but the game has always been played.
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I wonder what might have happened between 2018 and 2021 that could possibly have caused PlayStation to start acquiring studios? :pie_thinking:

sheesh the "Microsoft only has to do this because it's Sony's fault!" narrative might be the absolute dumbest one people push
 
SlimySnake said:
None of those game publishers compete with CoD. CoD players couldnt care less about FF16 or RE4. Just look at the sales. 3 million each. CoD sells 15 million in a weekend.

Cyberpunk + Witcher are WRPGs that have a completely different audience primarily on PC anyway. The only purchase sony can make is Rockstar/Take2 for GTA. Bungie, CD Project, Ubisoft, are all B players when it comes to CoD and GTA domination.

If sony is interested in saving their business, thats their only play. The other purchases are going to be a bandaid that will not stop the bleeding. If they dont go and buy Rockstar/Take2, they are probably looking to sell their PS division to tencent or apple/amazon. At the hearing, they effectively argued that they couldnt survive without the CoD userbase so maybe they have already thrown the towel behind the scenes. I guess we will find out if they make a play for Rockstar in the next few days.
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LOL. You guys really like the drama... seriously, re-read that.
 
Solidus_T said:
Microsoft's offer for CoD on Playstation held that MS would get 100% of the revenue, so even in that ridiculous scenario offered by MS, Sony still loses the revenue from the game.
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That deal was never signed though. Sony and Mmicrosoft can go back to the table without the weight of this case weighing on the decisions. They'll play hardball for sure, but I don't think 100% of revenue will end up with Microsoft.
 
Jigsaah said:
That deal was never signed though. Sony and Mmicrosoft can go back to the table without the weight of this case weighing on the decisions. They'll play hardball for sure, but I don't think 100% of revenue will end up with Microsoft.
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Did you think MS would release Zenimax games on Playstation too?
 
I think this is clearly a huge loss for playstation and probably bad for gamers in general to lose a major publisher like this. But could be a silver lining that spurs some innovation (assuming Sony's response isn't just to buy more companies).
 
SlimySnake said:
This is straight from Sony. If they believe they cant survive without CoD
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They can and will. You're not stupid. You know it's bullshit and know when to or not to believe corporate speak.

NickFire said:
COD needs paid online, so wouldn't it be 17 per month?

I don't see people jumping ship who only play COD just for the privilege of over-paying. But making it excusive next generation would be a big deal.
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Microsoft could easily waive this. Some games that are entirely dependent on online such as Destiny 2 don't require Xbox Live Gold/Game Pass Ultimate. COD will get special treatment, you can be sure of that. Microsoft will advertise the heck out of it for Game Pass and do all they can to entice players to get it there.
 
Vox Machina said:
Game Pass is profitable and they're already experimenting with ways to improve the profit margin with paid Early Access upgrades to the base game that comes included with Game Pass.



Game Pass is profitable.
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Not even Lyin' Phil had the audacity to make these statements. Everyone knows they're burning money on GP to earn marketshare.
 
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