Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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GHG said:
Yeh that's called doing his job, especially when most of those discussions are private and behind closed doors.

You might want to work on your definition of PR however.
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If you think PR is only what you can read on GAF I'll be nice, I'll chalk it up to naivete. And look up the definition of running a business too because I dispute that duplicity is an inherent part of it. It's not mutually exclusive with intellectual honesty.
 
Greggy said:
If you think PR is only what you can read on GAF I'll be nice, I'll chalk it up to naivete. And look up the definition of running a business too because I dispute that duplicity is an inherent part of it. It's not mutually exclusive with intellectual honesty.
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Was he not supposed to be against the buy out?
 
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Greggy said:
If you think PR is only what you can read on GAF I'll be nice, I'll chalk it up to naivete. And look up the definition of running a business too because I dispute that duplicity is an inherent part of it. It's not mutually exclusive with intellectual honesty.
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PR is literally "public relations".

Try starting there and stop wasting my time.
 
Chukhopops said:
Point still stands: MS would only agree to pause the litigation if negotiation is more attractive to them. And we can't forget the timing of the change, an hour after the US decision.

I don't believe this is a mastermind move by the CMA to delay a deal that was already delayed by their initial decision and the appeal process. To me it's a realization that MS' appeal might succeed and they have a better chance of getting concessions in a negotiation.
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I'd say your theory is perfectly plausible (that CMA wanted more time). Until today's news, I was convinced they made a back channel deal because they were afraid of losing. Still suspect as much, but doubt is creeping in a tiny bit.
 
DeepEnigma said:
Which websites? Which are the approved™ ones?

Seems to me the CMA has a more recent statement than MS PR.
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MS:
"While we ultimately disagree with the CMA's concerns, we are considering how the transaction might be modified in order to address those concerns in a way that is acceptable to the CMA"

CMA:
"Microsoft and Activision have indicated that they are considering how the transaction might be modified, and the CMA is prepared to engage with them on this basis"



They're saying the same thing, put the pitchfork down my friend.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
Is that a regulatory body's concern or responsibility if their contract is about to expire? Especially when the CMA had shared their findings and reports months ago, including the concessions they wanted?

Microsoft rejected those concessions and just ignored them at that time.
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That remains a question for the CAT and other such appellate courts. Like I said, I don't think that closing the acquisition and holding ATVI separate would automatically render their decisions dispositive to MSFT. And, if MSFT is subject to fines in the interregnum then they'd find themselves about $3,000,000,000 richer in order to deal with them. You're free to disagree.
 
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adamsapple said:
MS:
"While we ultimately disagree with the CMA's concerns, we are considering how the transaction might be modified in order to address those concerns in a way that is acceptable to the CMA"

CMA:
"Microsoft and Activision have indicated that they are considering how the transaction might be modified, and the CMA is prepared to engage with them on this basis"



They're saying the same thing, put the pitchfork down my friend.
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I don't have a pitchfork. Why are you not trying to control the narrative™ correcting people for saying "MS clearly has a backdoor deal with the CMA already worked out ahead of time?" There are a lot of those the past several pages the past 24 hours, when this is what the CMA recently has said.

"Whilst merging parties don't have the opportunity to put forward new remedies once a final report has been issued, they can choose to restructure a deal, which can lead to a new merger investigation," a spokesperson said.

"Microsoft and Activision have indicated that they are considering how the transaction might be modified, and the CMA is prepared to engage with them on this basis. These discussions remain at an early stage and the nature and timing of next steps will be determined in due course.

"While both parties have requested a pause in Microsoft's appeal to allow these discussions to take place, the CMA decision set out in its final report still stands."
 
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adamsapple said:
MS:
"While we ultimately disagree with the CMA's concerns, we are considering how the transaction might be modified in order to address those concerns in a way that is acceptable to the CMA"

CMA:
"Microsoft and Activision have indicated that they are considering how the transaction might be modified, and the CMA is prepared to engage with them on this basis"



They're saying the same thing, put the pitchfork down my friend.
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They basically are saying the same thing. But CMA has added to it today per reports, and essentially threw in a requirement for a new deal to be presented to them.

That might not mean much at all. There could be language allowing small changes to the MS / AB deal to be made on an expedited fashion without shareholder voting, with CMA already planning a fast track review of only new terms that they plan to approve. (EDIT - this is my expectation still even if I'm losing confidence in it)

But it also might mean that CMA altered a deal, or perhaps I should say clarified what they were open to. If they are literally saying that a new deal must be presented and reviewed, and MS did not realize the existing block would stay in place because this would be a new process, then oh boy. Hang onto your butts.
 
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Vox Machina said:
If MS/ATVI merge before the 18th then Microsoft will have $3 BILLION extra dollars in the bank to pay some fines while the process continues. Easy decision if I'm them.
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Lol at "some fines". Illumina was fined 10% of their top line revenue (EU record) today; the maximum amount the EU can levy. FYI CMA has same 10% max penalty. I trust you understand that 10% of $200b is more than just "some fines". These regulators aren't playing games.
 
NickFire said:
They basically are saying the same thing. But CMA has added to it today per reports, and essentially threw in a requirement for a new deal to be presented to them.

That might not mean much at all. There could be language allowing small changes to the MS / AB deal to be made on an expedited fashion without shareholder voting, with CMA already planning a fast track review of only new terms that they plan to approve.

But it also might mean that CMA altered a deal, or perhaps I should say clarified what they were open to. If they are literally saying that a new deal must be presented and reviewed, and MS did not realize the existing block would stay in place because this would be a new process, then oh boy. Hang onto your butts.
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The fact that CMA are even open to altering the deal to make it more palpable is a huge about-turn from their stance on it a few days ago. It makes it seem like they don't want to put their integrity at question in public view and alter the original decision wholesale but still find a workaround to be able to renegotiate and let it complete for whatever reason, be it political pressure or the fact that they're the only outlier holding it back now.
 
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Gudji said:
Wtf is the thread title new info since yesterday?
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Dc Comics Joker GIF by Max
 
Heisenberg007 said:
I see 3 scenarios here:
  1. CMA fucked up and is now saving face.
  2. Microsoft/ABK and their favorite "journalists" spun yesterday's news and presented in a way that implied the CMA has backed down, perhaps in a bid to raise stock prices and cut down everyone's losses (one can never forget about the money factor)
  3. Or the CMA is using this as an excuse to get the extension in appeal that the CAT denied them.
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2 and 3, the CMA is not saving face, they are in fact doubling and tripling down.
 
adamsapple said:
The fact that CMA are even open to altering the deal to make it more palpable is a huge about-turn from their stance on it a few days ago. It makes it seem like they don't want to put their integrity at question in public view and alter the original decision wholesale but still find a workaround to be able to renegotiate and let it complete for whatever reason, be it political pressure or the fact that they're the only outlier holding it back now.
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Quite the interpretation.

Heidi Klum Wow GIF by Lifetime
 
adamsapple said:
The fact that CMA are even open to altering the deal to make it more palpable is a huge about-turn from their stance on it a few days ago. It makes it seem like they don't want to put their integrity at question in public view and alter the original decision wholesale but still find a workaround to be able to renegotiate and let it complete for whatever reason, be it political pressure or the fact that they're the only outlier holding it back now.
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I thought so yesterday. I still think so if I'm being honest. But at the same time look at what CMA is actually saying today. They are saying the old deal is not getting approved, but a new deal is something they will consider.

I still lean towards CMA is saving face. I'm far too old and jaded to believe a multi-trillion dollar company is not "winning" when news like this comes out. But if the CMA is telling it straight, their literal words do not suggest they have become anymore flexible than they were previously.
 
Zok310 said:
2 and 3, the CMA is not saving face, they are in fact doubling and tripling down.
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2 is likely not true considering MS agreed to pursue this negotiation and delay CAT, so something of substance was discussed that prompted MS to alter the timing. 3 would be pretty dumb for CMA after CAT already strongly criticized them for unreasonable delay tactics.
 
Punished Miku said:
2 is likely not true considering MS agreed to pursue this negotiation and delay CAT, so something of substance was discussed that prompted MS to alter the timing. 3 would be pretty dumb for CMA after CAT already strongly criticized them for unreasonable delay tactics.
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It's leaning more towards #1 based on your options, IMO. But we'll know in a few days as things progress.

NickFire said:
I thought so yesterday. I still think so if I'm being honest. But at the same time look at what CMA is actually saying today. They are saying the old deal is not getting approved, but a new deal is something they will consider.

I still lean towards CMA is saving face. I'm far too old and jaded to believe a multi-trillion dollar company is not "winning" when news like this comes out. But if the CMA is telling it straight, their literal words do not suggest they have become anymore flexible than they were previously.
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Of course, like I said yesterday. Removing xcloud from the UK markets game pass seems like the easiest option to remedy CMA's biggest original concern.
 
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Seriously seems hard to predict WTF is up w/ the CMA.

Their willingness to go this far and "re-negotiate" is unprecedented but doesn't mean MS is going to appease them. I still wouldn't bet the farm on the 2 sides agreeing to terms.
 
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Punished Miku said:
2 is likely not true considering MS agreed to pursue this negotiation and delay CAT, so something of substance was discussed that prompted MS to alter the timing. 3 would be pretty dumb for CMA after CAT already strongly criticized them for unreasonable delay tactics.
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MS is taking a chance, thats it. If CMA comments today shows anything its that they have prohibited the merger. I doubt they have made MS feel comfortable about a new remedy.
 
adamsapple said:
Of course, like I said yesterday. Removing xcloud from the UK markets game pass seems like the easiest option to remedy CMA's biggest original concern.
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Let's step back a second.

CMA wants a new deal between Activision and MS if I am understanding the CMA correctly. Would those terms be part of such a deal? And why would they be?

And the next question - can MS agree to such terms without full blown shareholder approval.

And the next question - does Activision have to extend, and if not, do they want to when share price is close to sell price anyway?
 
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ChiefDada said:
Consider what the lenient EU, which folded on Microsoft/Activision, said/did today in response to another merger initiating a close without their permission.




Now imagine what the CMA would do...

asbQ6V0.jpg
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Nadella be like: "432 million? That's cheap lets go". :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 
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adamsapple said:
Of course, like I said yesterday. Removing xcloud from the UK markets game pass seems like the easiest option to remedy CMA's biggest original concern.
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Seems like the most minimal of crumbs to what the CMA really wants. They are hard on divestment and the like.

A new investigation would probably be based on some things that came out in the PI trial to the public arena.

NickFire said:
Let's step back a second.

CMA wants a new deal between Activision and MS if I am understanding the CMA correctly. Would those terms be part of such a deal? And why would they be?
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Notice how it's the most minimal of fan fiction being offered for just the UK, when the CMA's decision was also based on a global company and their global cloud infrastructure?
 
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DeepEnigma said:
Notice how it's the most minimal of fan fiction being offered for just the UK, when the CMA's decision was also based on a global company and their global cloud infrastructure?
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He's passionate about this stuff and making predictions the same as the rest of us. No issue there for me. But I don't see how that proposal would satisfy anyone at the CMA. Relegating the consumers they protect to second class citizen's doesn't seem a logical way to prevent lack of choices IMO.
 
DeepEnigma said:
Seems like the most minimal of crumbs to what the CMA really wants. They are hard on divestment and the like.

A new investigation would probably be based on more things that came out in trial to the public arena.


Notice how it's the most minimal of fan fiction being offered for just the UK, when the CMA's decision was also based on a global company and their global cloud infrastructure?
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CMA reopens investigations and accept the xcloud divestment... BUT after reading the emails, intentions and lies, returns with the console SLC and demands divestment there also for COD ... what a mind fuck would this be lol


Or they just approve this shit and be done with it ...
 
DeepEnigma said:
Seems like the most minimal of crumbs to what the CMA really wants. They are hard on divestment and the like.
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Agree.

What's easiest for MS to offer vs what the CMA want is the 3 billion dollar question.
 
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Gudji said:
Nadella be like: "432 million? That's cheap lets go". :messenger_tears_of_joy:
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You know what isn't cheap? Lost sales in the UK, COD's second biggest market outside of the US. Even more expensive, Microsoft not being able to purchase shit, due to establishing a damaging reputation of regulatory indifference.
 
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GHG said:
Exactly.

If it's an amount less than the breakup fee agreed with Activision then it's more than worth the risk.
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It does say in the slide "Decision ordering restorative measures" so I assume they will force things back to what it was before. Have no idea how these things work so who knows.
 
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DeepEnigma said:
Seems like the most minimal of crumbs to what the CMA really wants. They are hard on divestment and the like.

A new investigation would probably be based on some things that came out in the PI trial to the public arena.


Notice how it's the most minimal of fan fiction being offered for just the UK, when the CMA's decision was also based on a global company and their global cloud infrastructure?
Click to expand...


The CMA denied on the basis of choice and innovation for the UK gamers, the remedy would and should thus be for something that satisfies their concerns about choice and innovation for UK gamers.


Bernardougf said:
CMA reopens investigations and accept the xcloud divestment... BUT after reading the emails, intentions and lies, returns with the console SLC and demands divestment there also for COD ... what a mind fuck would this be lol

Or they just approve this shit and be done with it ...
Click to expand...

Again, won't be surprised if its the later either.
 
DForce said:


CNBC made a correction after they reported yesterday that CMA and MS agreed to a small divestiture.
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How many millions / billions might have been traded because of one erroneous report?

adamsapple said:
The CMA denied on the basis of choice and innovation for the UK gamers, the remedy would and should thus be for something that satisfies their concerns about choice and innovation for UK gamers.
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Aren't you literally proposing a remedy that would leave UK gamers with less choices?
 
NickFire said:
Aren't you literally proposing a remedy that would leave UK gamers with less choices?
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Those aren't my words, the CMA sees MS rapid growth in cloud as a danger to UK gamers choice and innovation. Removing that hurdle should remove the concern too, right ? I'm just looking at possible things that can continue their newfound negotiations.

The cloud allows UK gamers to avoid buying expensive gaming consoles and PCs and gives them much more flexibility and choice as to how they play. Allowing Microsoft to take such a strong position in the cloud gaming market just as it begins to grow rapidly would risk undermining the innovation that is crucial to the development of these opportunities.
Click to expand...
 
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