Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
IntentionalPun said:
Nobody told anyone they would accept the deal. Faber mis-spoke and corrected himself, MS "believes" the deal will work.

And I don't think they can just "accept" a divestiture deal on the spot.

Entire thing needs to be re-examined.

What it sounds like:

MS instead of going to CAT put together a divestiture deal w/ ABK, and are going to offer it up to the CMA. The process for that involves them having to re-submit to the CMA, which could take months, but MS feels like it's going to work.

And of course if MS is offering a deal they think is going to work, they are going to.. tell the media that lol And if they don't think it's going to work, they'd never have stopped the CAT process to move forward with re-submitting.

It'd be gaslighting for MS to re-submit and go "We think they won't accept this deal, we are just doing this to waste millions of dollars."
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The CMA's objections are pretty clear. If Microsoft can restructure the deal in some way that removes itself from the UK cloud streaming market completely then the objection vanishes. The CMA's jurisdiction is UK consumers and UK competition. It has no say regarding Microsoft's cloud plans elsewhere if it is no longer providing cloud gaming to the UK. Microsoft is probably discussing these options with the CMA to understand its risk if it decides to close without regulatory approval.
 
Historia said:
Hopefully it will be irrelevant soon
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I hope it won't. Say what you want about the monetization practices, but the graphics, gameplay and the smoothness is unparalleled for any shooter. It is the king of shooters for a reason.

Just yesterday I played a round of team deathmatch in BLOPS Cold War and it was fun as fuck.
 
BlueLyria said:
Did I miss the meltdowns? I've seen quite a few bans here
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Lots of ALT accounts mainly. Say what you want about Eddie-Griffin Eddie-Griffin , but he at least put some effort into his alts.

I mean....look at this shit.

J-Man997
jpf97
jpf997

block0101
BlockH1010

Frustrated Will Ferrell GIF
 
DeepEnigma said:
Whelp, that's a shift in narrative from yesterday.


Shocked Patrick Stewart GIF by reactionseditor
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it's pretty hilarious to see users who clearly push a narrative accuse those who don't like the deal of doing the same

we're the least organized bunch there is, we don't even fully agree with each other while oddly there's a noticeable group here that is in lockstep coming up with the same idea right around the same time :pie_thinking: funny how that happens
 
adamsapple said:
David Faber from CNBC:

"Microsoft has offered a small discrete divestiture that will satisfy the CMA, or at least they believe will satisfy the CMA ... all of this will put it on the path to close"

Not only is David not a part of Microsoft, but his statement is pretty clear, he quickly corrects himself in the very next sentence.

But let's not let little details like that take us away from the Narrative™.
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What's your point here? Are we suddenly requiring journalist to abandon their traditional sourcing methods and become c-suite execs in order to confirm which company said what?
 
Heisenberg007 said:
FYI - Phil Spencer literally admitted it during the hearing, that he prioritized Cloud server blades instead of pushing Series X on the market for sale.
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I don't know how that came out and yet people still try to run with some idea that cloud isn't a thing, will never be a thing, and this is all just a farce to block a deal. When Phil basically said he fucked Xbox's install base to get more cloud servers running. Clearly he thinks something is there.
 
Varteras said:
I don't know how that came out and yet people still try to run with some idea that cloud isn't a thing, will never be a thing, and this is all just a farce to block a deal. When Phil basically said he fucked Xbox's install base to get more cloud servers running. Clearly he thinks something is there.
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The end game.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
Before:

F02Le3lWYAAJI4T



Now:

F02LjfaXsAIqVrd



This is white-collar corruption at its absolute finest. One small "error" that moved billions of $$, profiting people who were meant to profit.

Us gamers are at the bottom of the barrel in all this; the real story is this and how they all just cut their losses and earned millions in a matter of hours.
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Depends - did the idiot that bought stocks last week sell them already? ;)
 
Pelta88 said:
You know what isn't cheap? Lost sales in the UK, COD's second biggest market outside of the US. Even more expensive, Microsoft not being able to purchase shit, due to establishing a damaging reputation of regulatory indifference.
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These nuclear options aren't gonna happen. MS isn't gonna get banned from the UK and they aren't gonna leave on their own.

Cooler heads will prevail. Ultimately the UK will realize they aren't gonna be the only nation in the entire world to stop the acquisition.

MS will close, the CMA will probably fine them, then they will begin talking about what has to be done in order for it be permanent. MS will probably have to offer even bigger concessions than if they had just waited until the CMA went thru another hearing but MS doesn't have time to wait.

That's my guess anyway. It's honestly the most logical outcome. This deal is big enough the govt pressure would probably be applied to make sure no harm is caused to any market. So in the end its gets done a lot more calmly than many think.
 
ChiefDada said:
What's your point here? Are we suddenly requiring journalist to abandon their traditional sourcing methods and become c-suite execs in order to confirm which company said what?
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What the fuck lol. I'm not arguing about journalistic sources, you agreed with a poster that said MS is prevailing the narrative that the deal is already done, but posted a video which decidedly proves they are not prevailing the narrative.

demigod said:
Lol woke up to this news, we back boyz. Cnbc fudged that up.

Will the energy be the same as yesterday or did the xfans go back to hibernating?
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Interesting choice of words :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 
demigod said:
Lol woke up to this news, we back boyz. Cnbc fudged that up.

Will the energy be the same as yesterday or did the xfans go back to hibernating?
Click to expand...

It's been pretty quiet in here since the revelation that CNBC jumped the gun and the CMA made it clear they're still blocking the deal as it is. There's hope for them, but it involves a renegotiation no matter what. Which neither MS nor ABK seemed to be willing or able to come to an agreement on for months. Now they have to come to an arrangement in the next 6 days that could very well see this whole process play out for months longer. With still no guarantees.
 
Heisenberg007 said:
One of the two (CMA or MS) will have to back down for the deal to go through.

CMA's only concession was the divestiture of Activision and COD. Microsoft rejected divestment.

Possible that CMA now rejects Microsoft's supposed offer to remove xCloud from GPU in the UK. Or perhaps they back down and accept it. Either way, one party will have to leave their initial stance. Let's see how it turns out to be.
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AFAIK the CMA are legally bound to rectify or block all SLCs in a merger under their remit. Upside down astroturfer world thinks an SLC is just a bump in the road, as seemingly do people like Brad Smith, yet the non-acronym description: Serious loss of competition is a merger defcon 1 description to the CMA, there is no realistic backdown for the CMA, only a dodgy capitulation that destroys the CMA reputation.

I just don't see a way that Microsoft gets the win they want. Their win at the moment looks more like they don't lose $3b and buy enough of ATVI that doesn't present an SLC,, which will still be a win, because even without Activision/CoD the other parts of the company have still appreciated in 18month, and the saving of the $3b makes the buy a financial win, even if it is not a foreclosure strategy win like they wanted.
 
Topher said:
Lots of ALT accounts mainly. Say what you want about Eddie-Griffin Eddie-Griffin , but he at least put some effort into his alts.

I mean....look at this shit.

J-Man997
jpf97
jpf997

block0101
BlockH1010

Frustrated Will Ferrell GIF
Click to expand...
Yep that's some truly imaginative work there.By the way do you know this new guy @azertydu92 , he seems nice and totally is not me.

Now I just pray that there won't be an asshole to create an account named azertydu92.
 
wolffy66 said:
Cooler heads will prevail. Ultimately the UK will realize they aren't gonna be the only nation in the entire world to stop the acquisition.
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They're aren't.

But prey tell, are you suggesting political world stage pressure? Sounds just as nuclear.

They've been the lone wolf in many M&As.
 
Remember when michael was arguing with jan about having to get multiple vasectomies and undoing it over and over again. This is how it feels to follow this deal.

snip-snap-the-office.gif
 
Varteras said:
It's been pretty quiet in here since the revelation that CNBC jumped the gun and the CMA made it clear they're still blocking the deal as it is. There's hope for them, but it involves a renegotiation no matter what. Which neither MS nor ABK seemed to be willing or able to come to an agreement on for months. Now they have to come to an arrangement in the next 6 days that could very well see this whole process play out for months longer. With still no guarantees.
Click to expand...
CNBC jumped the gun on reporting that a deal was accepted, which was literally impossible since the CMA can't just do that overnight.

But MS apparently does have a divestiture plan they think will work, that part of the CNBC reporting wasn't corrected.

I don't think ABK is even involved here other than they get to decided to let MS keep playing this game or not come Monday. I'm sure we'll hear a statement from them though.
 
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IntentionalPun said:
CNBC jumped the gun on reporting that a deal was accepted, which was literally impossible since the CMA can't just do that overnight.

MS apparently does have a divestiture plan they think will work. But they have to submit it.

I don't think ABK is even involved here other than they get to decided to let MS keep playing this game or not come Monday. I'm sure we'll hear a statement from them though.
Click to expand...
I think this was already denied by the CMA.
 
Jigsaah said:
I think this was already denied by the CMA.
Click to expand...

I don't think so, people are misreading the correction. The only correction is the deal wasn't accepted.

Likely because.. it wasn't submitted lol

This whole thing is MS / CMA agreeing to go back to a process where MS re-submits a deal.. they couldn't have done the re-submission and rejection in the last 24 hours. That's what the 2-3 month long process will be for.
 
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Heisenberg007 said:
That'd be really stupid by Microsoft.

They seem to have a real chance at this point. If they close, they will shut that door down permanently. The CMA will order divestment (like they did to Meta) and no court will by sympathetic to Microsoft.
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It is a thinly veiled threat by the CMA IMO for them to either accept the current divestment or have all the FTC lawsuit laundry added to the probe, and the Console SLC added, and maybe even a E-sports SLC that should really have been considered IMO after I recently read someone mentioning about CoD's monthly 110m playerbase.
 
adamsapple said:
I'm just glad the CMA lifeline brought back some of the stalwart posters who were MIA all of yesterday, was getting a bit worried for them :messenger_smiling_hearts:
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Uh.....who was MIA yesterday? If anything we had flood of new blood thumping their chests in this thread..........and now they are gone. Seemed like most of our regulars were here.
 
IntentionalPun said:
CNBC jumped the gun on reporting that a deal was accepted, which was literally impossible since the CMA can't just do that overnight.

But MS apparently does have a divestiture plan they think will work, that part of the CNBC reporting wasn't corrected.

I don't think ABK is even involved here other than they get to decided to let MS keep playing this game or not come Monday. I'm sure we'll hear a statement from them though.
Click to expand...

Pretty much any situation involves a renegotiation of the deal. The CMA cannot accept remedies on the current deal. It violates the process. It has to be restructured and the process started over, though likely expedited. Which sounds like it will still take months. From what I gather, no matter what, ABK has to agree to new terms that extend the timeline. Though as others have pointed out, a new deal doesn't just mean the CMA has to look at it. It would have to be sent back to all regulators.
 
Topher said:
Uh.....who was MIA yesterday? If anything we had flood of new blood thumping their chests in this thread..........and now they are gone. Seemed like most of our regulars were here.
Click to expand...
yeah I was going to say, I don't recall anyone being absent?

though there were some from Adams side of things that miraculously resurrected yesterday only to have seemingly vanished again today 🤔
 
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IntentionalPun said:
I don't think so, people are misreading the correction. The only correction is the deal wasn't accepted.

Likely because.. it wasn't submitted lol

This whole thing is MS / CMA agreeing to go back to a process where MS re-submits a deal.. they couldn't have done the re-submission and rejection in the last 24 hours. That's what the 2-3 month long process will be for.
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Ah I see. So they could still accept the "Small Divestiture"?

I wonder what this could be.

I mean it has to have something to do with cloud right?

Maybe, Microsoft has to offer games to Luna? That might not be considered small though.
 
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