Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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Not good right now. I have a feeling I will pay $70 to buy the game. Then I will invest in ATVI stock to make some money and knowing my bad luck the deal will get blocked even though logic tells me the deal should be approved.

Bro, $70 doesn't buy you one share and hasn't since this saga started.

Save yourself the angst and enjoy Diablo 4.
 
Appeal will most likely challenge the judge's application and interpretation of Section 7 of the Clayton Act and resulting improper, elevated threshold imposed on FTC by the judge.

"Reasonable probability that it might" (FTC) vs. Reasonable probability that it will" (Judge)..... substantially lessen competition.

Two very different statements that determine burden of proof threshold. Let's call it what it is, the judge got sloppy and fumbled her citings in order to appease Microsoft/Activision and their merger deadline. She basically admitted this possibility in her write-up.

So it's another loss then?
 
Appeal will most likely challenge the judge's application and interpretation of Section 7 of the Clayton Act and resulting improper, elevated threshold imposed on FTC by the judge.

"Reasonable probability that it might" (FTC) vs. Reasonable probability that it will" (Judge)..... substantially lessen competition.

Two very different statements that determine burden of proof threshold. Let's call it what it is, the judge got sloppy and fumbled her citings in order to appease Microsoft/Activision and their merger deadline. She basically admitted this possibility in her write-up.
Is that the standard applicable to preliminary injunctions while FTC investigates?

If so, it would seem logical for that to be the standard while FTC investigates, and would suggest the judge applied more of a standard for enforcement of an FTC decision after a final FTC investigation.

If that was also an accurate presumption, then I like FTC's chances for a stay of the last judgment.
 
CMA and the FTC wants the thread to reach at 2000.


They get paid by the page count :messenger_grinning_sweat:

Not good right now. I have a feeling I will pay $70 to buy the game. Then I will invest in ATVI stock to make some money and knowing my bad luck the deal will get blocked even though logic tells me the deal should be approved.

do what I did and rent it 🤷‍♂️

also the entire Yakuza franchise and multiple Persona games are already on GP. Play them while you wait for D4.
 
I want off this rollercoaster.

Surprise Youre Coming With Me GIF by Hollyoaks
 
So it's another loss then?

Yeh if that's the route they go down they aren't going to be successful.

Seeing what they brought to the table during the case I don't think they have anyone competent enough in-house to put together an appeal robust enough to have a chance of being successful.
 
These jokers are doing a really poor job of convincing anyone that they actually play games and that they even want to play games.

The yakuza and persona games have already been on gamepass for eons now.

Yeah that was just a Sega Wednesday joke I was referring to P3 Reload and Infinite Wealth. But I am a big self admitted Sega fanboy and I do want the future games all to come to Game Pass. What is wrong with saving money?
 
No clue what you are asking.

By wrong standard I am referring to the legal standard for a judge to decide how they should rule. Some "experts" claim she misinterpreted the applicable one. If true, that would be something an appeal's court looks at seriously. In many cases where that is the appellate decision, their order is for a remand. That means for the original judge to issue a new opinion with the correct standard being applied.
Yeah, I think we are talking about the same Clayton act that ChiefDada provided info for over the last 20 or so pages of which one was quotes from a George town law article explaining the actual acts wording as a probability of a probability, which her wording subverted with the term "maybe" with the word "will" and reducing the standard to a straight probability - at odds with the act - raising the difficulty standard providing evidence for the FTC to make their case, or at least that's what I took from what I read - which might be completely wrong.

The part about Sony, would then mean the judge has already confirmed the second probability exists by stating the deal is bad for Sony.
 
Appeal will most likely challenge the judge's application and interpretation of Section 7 of the Clayton Act and resulting improper, elevated threshold imposed on FTC by the judge.

"Reasonable probability that it might" (FTC) vs. Reasonable probability that it will" (Judge)..... substantially lessen competition.

Two very different statements that determine burden of proof threshold. Let's call it what it is, the judge got sloppy and fumbled her citings in order to appease Microsoft/Activision and their merger deadline. She basically admitted this possibility in her write-up.

These aren't remotely different statements.

"There's a chance I might" vs. "There's a chance I will" are the same damn thing. Doesn't matter how you modify the "chance" part of the statement, the meaning inferred is the same.
 
Yeah that was just a Sega Wednesday joke I was referring to P3 Reload and Infinite Wealth. But I am a big self admitted Sega fanboy and I do want the future games all to come to Game Pass. What is wrong with saving money?

P3 reload isn't even out yet, you can't purchase and play it. At this point you're just trolling.

My favourite hobby is also "saving money".
 
These aren't remotely different statements.

"There's a chance I might" vs. "There's a chance I will" are the same damn thing. Doesn't matter how you modify the "chance" part of the statement, the meaning inferred is the same.
Clearly not a SW fan, then? the "I will" part is talking in an absolute. :)
 
These aren't remotely different statements.

"There's a chance I might" vs. "There's a chance I will" are the same damn thing. Doesn't matter how you modify the "chance" part of the statement, the meaning inferred is the same.
They might be extremely different depending on the context of where they appear.

I am purely speculating right now. But if we are talking about the standard for whether FTC should be allowed to have a merger paused (preliminary injunction), so that FTC can investigate / have a trial before making a final decision, then might and will could matter a ton in the legal world. Might would suggest a threshold standard for a preliminary injunction, where will would suggest the threshold for a permanent injunction.
 
Yeh if that's the route they go down they aren't going to be successful.

Seeing what they brought to the table during the case I don't think they have anyone competent enough in-house to put together an appeal robust enough to have a chance of being successful.

Yeah, they're going to have to prove without a shadow of a doubt that they were unlawfully wronged in this case, and I just don't see how that's going to happen. People can bring up the Clayton Act stuff all they want, but that's the judge's modern interpretation of a very, very old law.

Good luck is all I can say.

Well, actually, that's not true. I also want to say: maybe Khan can better use her time helping the current administration, and Congress, to better understand why there's a need for an antitrust overhaul?
 
They might be extremely different depending on the context of where they appear.

I am purely speculating right now. But if we are talking about the standard for whether FTC should be allowed to have a merger paused (preliminary injunction), so that FTC can investigate / have a trial before making a final decision, then might and will could matter a ton in the legal world. Might would suggest a threshold standard for a preliminary injunction, where will would suggest the threshold for a permanent injunction.
It just doesn't make sense.

"There's a 75% chance he might do something"

"There's a 75% chance he will do something"

Both of these statements are saying the same thing lol The "might" doesn't modify the 75% chance part down to 50% or something lol

In the context of the sentence "will" essentially MEANS might.

Replace 75% with "reasonable probability" and I think you'll see what I'm saying here.
 
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It just doesn't make sense.

"There's a 75% chance he might do something"

"There's a 75% chance he will do something"

Both of these statements are saying the same thing lol The "might" doesn't modify the 75% chance part down to 50% or something lol

In the context of the sentence "will" essentially MEANS might.
Oh yes it does. Have you ever heard the joke about prosecutors being able to indict a ham sandwich?

It stems, at least partly, from the two completely different standards to charge someone with a crime compared to convicting them for it. To charge someone you merely need probable cause (think like 10% probability they did it, although I am over generalizing here). But to convict them you have to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

If the defense attorney argues to dismiss a criminal complaint because the prosecutor did not prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt to the grand jury or magistrate, and the judge actually allows it, the appeal's court will almost certainly overturn the dismissal. The reason is that the prosecutor does not need to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt until after the full blown trial. Doesn't matter how much damage a criminal charge can do to an innocent person who is found not guilty. As long as there is a thresh hold showing the person MIGHT have committed the crime (essentially), the prosecutor gets their trial.

Following now?
 
These aren't remotely different statements.

"There's a chance I might" vs. "There's a chance I will" are the same damn thing. Doesn't matter how you modify the "chance" part of the statement, the meaning inferred is the same.
Not really...it's probability of a probability vs. probability of a certainty, and the law is written to test the former.

Legally, that's a big difference and beyond semantics.
 
P3 reload isn't even out yet, you can't purchase and play it. At this point you're just trolling.

My favourite hobby is also "saving money".
Really? My favorite hobby is gaming.

Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to go finish up Final Fantasy XVI now which I paid $70 for in addition to the $460 that I paid for the PS5 to play it on
 
P3 reload isn't even out yet, you can't purchase and play it. At this point you're just trolling.

My favourite hobby is also "saving money".

Yeah I know that. If MS bought Sega then I would save money on future games. Metaphor, P3, Reload Infinite Wealth are coming in 6-12 months. thats $210 savings. But like I said it was a joke.

Sorry you seem to have an attitude with me and I get it Gamepass cheerleading for games can get annoying on this site. But I think you are the guy that does the good stock analysis. Just wanted to say I appreciate your posts. Good day.
 
Oh yes it does. Have you ever heard the joke about prosecutors being able to indict a ham sandwich?

Come on! You at least have to share the whole story.


Regardless of whether it was pastrami or ham, Wachtler got to observe the sandwich-making process from both sides of the lunch counter. In 1993, he was indicted for extortion and other crimes. Psychology Today explains:

"Wachtler's debacle began as an affair with prominent Republican fund-raiser Joy Silverman. After the relationship ended, he embarked on a series of threatening letters and phone calls to Silverman—including a sexually explicit note addressed to her 14-year-old daughter, complete with an enclosed condom—from various locales around the country."
 
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So yeah it's going to be hilarious if one of the stipulations is MS has to put COD on Nintendo consoles for 10 years. Sony will be business as usual but Nintendo hasn't been getting cod … it would just pushes them further ahead. 🤣
 
They got to get two of the 3 judges to sign off at the appeals court and the judges on that panel are the ones that prefixed over the cases she sited 🤷🏾‍♂️. This deal is happening
 
These aren't remotely different statements.

"There's a chance I might" vs. "There's a chance I will" are the same damn thing. Doesn't matter how you modify the "chance" part of the statement, the meaning inferred is the same.

No. For starters, it's not "There is a chance", it's "Reasonable Probability". Let's break it down:

1. To grant PI, FTC has to show "Reasonable Probability" that the proposed merger is in violation of clayton act, sec. 7.

2. Sec. 7 "prohibits the acquisition by a corporation of stock in another corporation where the effect of the acquisition may be to lessen competition."

2a. Subsequent cases established the term "reasonable probability" = "more likely than not" and the term "may be" = "likely". ("Substantial is entirely different can of worms but it seems like FTC and judge were on the same page with this, I think).

3. Put it all together = The FTC has to prove: "more likely than not" that the acquisition is "likely" to lessen competition substantially" (Probability of a Probability; Lower threshold for FTC)

4. The judge's decision stated the FTC failed to prove: "more likely than not" that the merger "will" lessen competition substantially" (Probability of an Absolute; Higher threshold for FTC).


You might not care or understand the significance in the nuance, but attorneys do.
 
Yeah I know that. If MS bought Sega then I would save money on future games. Metaphor, P3, Reload Infinite Wealth are coming in 6-12 months. thats $210 savings. But like I said it was a joke.

Sorry you seem to have an attitude with me and I get it Gamepass cheerleading for games can get annoying on this site. But I think you are the guy that does the good stock analysis. Just wanted to say I appreciate your posts. Good day.

Look, the way I see it is that if you want to play something enough then you can budget appropriately for it (providing you're an adult, which I'm assuming you are). If a game isn't of thst much importance to you then you won't. D4 has been out for a while now, if it were of thst much importance to you then you would already be playing it (and that also goes for any other game that's not on the service).

Pretending that Microsoft buying out a publisher whose games are already on gamepass will be a big win to you doesn't make any sense at all, sorry.
 
So yeah it's going to be hilarious if one of the stipulations is MS has to put COD on Nintendo consoles for 10 years. Sony will be business as usual but Nintendo hasn't been getting cod … it would just pushes them further ahead. 🤣
If any Nintendo gamers gave a shit about CoD they would have bought a console which has it by now.
 
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