Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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I'll be honest. I don't actually know what's going on in this hearing. Maybe it's because I missed the first couple of hours, but it feels like they are just going around in circles.
The main take for me. Is that there's a MS proposal which the CMA are very positive about. But the details of which are so sensitive, they dont even want to share them with todays judge.
 
Is the judge going to make a decision at the end of this hearing?
Previous decisions about case management were taken immediatly.

He already said the outcomes would be either

1) Yes the case can be suspended as requested

Or

2) I cant tell you the decision today - for now the appeal is July 28 until its looked at further over the next days
 
Judge is becoming
Judge Dredd GIF
The UK has this much power over deals?

I knew the EU can block whatever they want, didn't know the UK was this powerful..
 
Think of it like divorce courts.
This is that circus.
Except they both no longer want to get divorced and the judge is like "you were just in court last week saying she shit in your bed, and you expect me to think you are going to stay together?"
 
The main take for me. Is that there's a MS proposal which the CMA are very positive about. But the details of which are so sensitive, they dont even want to share them with todays judge.

I don't get that feeling. I get the feeling there is no agreed proposal at all and MS want to avoid a decision because it would make it easier for ATVI to walk away tomorrow night.

All that seems to be on offer is an undertaking by both sides to negotiate more.
 
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I think the judge will probably give way to CMA/MS/ABK primarily because they are all on the same page. He is performing his due diligence to make sure the process itself is safeguarded and he wants to vet this application appropriately. That's how it should be. But at the end of the day, I think he will allow the adjournment.

But....they are going to have to give him some "meat", as he said.
 
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I don't get that feeling. I get the feeling there is no agreed proposal at all and MS want to avoid a decision because it would make it easier for ATVI to walk away tomorrow night.

All that seems to be in offer is an undertaking by both sides to negotiate more.

They want to find a way forward that allows them to formally close the deal today and then deal with the CMA after the fact, leaving the CMA with little to no leverage at all because it's all done and dusted.

How the CMA don't see this I don't know (maybe they don't want to).
 
I think the judge will probably give way to CMA/MS/ABK primarily because they are all on the same page. He is performing his due diligence to make sure the process itself is safeguarded and he wants to vet this application appropriately. That's how it should be. But at the end of the day, I think he will allow the adjournment.
The issue with that is that it would be bought up in future cases as a reason to change or extend things
 
I need sauce. I am hungry as hell.
its the laser eyes meme but with judges, Im having a hard time finding any images of it with image search though. I know there is one from the AJ case when he called her a tyrant (lmao) but there is also one from the Rittenhouse case. generally it pops up for a short period in any high profile case when the judge gets mad
 
Microsoft and CMA working together, who would have thought.
I guess Microsoft are playing it safe; so they don't have to go court in 8-10 months about call of duty being taken away.
 
Having to listened to most of it, I see it like this:
CMA: Want to pause proceedings because Microsoft has submitted a plan to fix their issues with it (based on what they are saying, it does indeed seem like a sale of the whole or portion of their cloud gaming business in the UK). They keep referring to another case of some Whisky company which sold part of it's assets in order for the deal to get passed. It was made clear that this deal would be something similar to that.

Microsoft: Also wants to pause proceedings as they are going to make an offer, but which hasn't been provided to the CMA yet. Microsoft is obviously looking to expedite things here and this seems to be the fastest route to getting it closed.

Judge: He has issues because they are trying to use a legal avenue when the offer hasn't been put on the table yet. Instead he is simply to make his decisions on the promises of both MS and CMA that they might be able to resolve issues (as others have said). He also alludes to the weekends deal with Sony could in fact lead it to quash the report findings. Both MS and CMA don't agree with this as Sony's agreement was not the main cause of the issues laid out in the report (which were to do with cloud gaming monopoly). I think the Judge will ask the CMA as to whether they would consider reversing their decision after the break, but since it doesn't resolve their original issues it will be a no. Based on everything he's said so far, I just see him not agreeing to pausing proceedings and as such going ahead with the original CAT tribunal. Apparently a "lot of effort" was made to make it happen this quickly and he seems aggrieved that this would be abandoned at this stage.
 
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Microsoft and the CMA are frantically trying to delete the previous order.

The previous order was lawful.

The judge is asking for evidence as to why he should.

No one has any concrete evidence.

It's all just 'trust us bro, we can sort this out'.

They've got some persuading to do unless they can pull something concrete out.
Is what is going on similar to this?

VP: ok guys, you've had tons of time already to finalize your proposal which I'll make the final decision. What it is?

Two marketing managers: we need more time

VP: why? We were suppose to make a decision today

MMs: both of us were chatting and we want to redo what we were all talking about last month

VP: what? What's going on? How much more time do you need?

MMs: we don't know. We'll get back to you later
 
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They want to find a way forward that allows them to formally close the deal today and then deal with the CMA after the fact, leaving the CMA with little to no leverage at all because it's all done and dusted.

How the CMA don't see this I don't know (maybe they don't want to).

But wasn't facebook and Giphy all done and dusted and then they were forced to divest?
 
Having to listened to most of it, I see it like this:
CMA: Want to pause proceedings because Microsoft has submitted a plan to fix their issues with it (based on what they are saying, it does indeed seem like a sale of the whole or portion of their cloud gaming business in the UK). They keep referring to another case of some Whisky company which sold part of it's assets in order for the deal to get passed. It was made clear that this deal would be something similar to that.

Microsoft: Also wants to pause proceedings as they are going to make an offer, but which hasn't been provided to the CMA yet. Microsoft is obviously looking for expediency here and this seems to be the fastest route to getting it closed.

Judge: He has issues because they are trying to use a legal avenue when the offer hasn't been put on the table yet. Instead he is simply to make his decisions on the promises of both MS and CMA that they might be able to resolve issues (as others have said). He also alludes to the weekends deal with Sony could in fact lead it to quash the report findings. Both MS and CMA don't agree with this as Sony's agreement was not the main cause of the issues laid out in the report (which were to do with cloud gaming monopoly). I think the Judge will ask the CMA as to whether they would consider reversing their decision after the break, but since it doesn't resolve their original issues it will be a no. Based on everything he's said so far, I just see him not agreeing to pausing proceedings and as such going ahead with the original CAT tribunal. Apparently a "lot of effort" was made to make it happen this quickly and he seems aggrieved that this would be abandoned at this stage.
Thank you for this analysis. I cant watch right now, but this seems like a very good description of the stance of all involved parties at the moment.
 
I don't understand what cma and microsoft want, what do they expect from the cat?

They both want the appeal paused.

MS because they think they can get a deal with the CMA and close before tomorrow, and CMA because they believe they can extract some concessions from MS to allow it to close (and if not bring their A team lawyer to the CAT).
 
Is what is going on similar to this?

VP: ok guys, you've had tons of time already to finalize your proposal which I'll make the final decision. What it is?

Two marketing managers: we need more time

VP: why? We were suppose to make a decision today

MMs: both of us were chatting and we want to redo what we were all talking about last month

VP: what? What's going on? How much more time do you need?

MMs: we don't know. We'll get back to you later
Pretty much, good time for you to cash out IMO. Played it well.
 
Somewhere in this deep, long thread, I made a post stating that a deal of this magnitude will always become political. Politics will always come into play, with deals like this, and there'll always be more at play, than what meets the eyes, or what the public is privy to seeing.

And this hearing, along with the FTC's case against MS, is absolute proof of this. I also stated that many of these arm-chair experts on Gaf (and in the general/enthusiast gaming community) don't have a proper or thorough understanding of this, and can only make their decisions and predictions based on their bias/favourites, and cherry-picking information to support those biases (myself included). So many were certain that the EU would rule against MS; they got that wtong. They were then certain the CMA would disapprove of the deal, and while they got that right, they got it right for the wrong reasons (It was the cloud considerations that stopped CMA from okay-ing the deal - which no one saw coming). They were certain the MS lawyer fell right into the CMA's lawyer's play-dumb tactic (it wasn't a tactic, he really was a half-wit), and they'd win that pre-trial; got that wrong too. They were certain the FTC would win, because big-bad-monopoly MS-bad-for-consumers; ...got that wrong too. They were certain the FTC's appeal would go through, and MS would lose another hearing case; the appeal was considered ludicrous, their arguments weak, and it got denied, with absolution. And now, this...

At the time when I made some of those statements, I was heckled and mocked.

Now, here we are...
 
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I think the judge will probably give way to CMA/MS/ABK primarily because they are all on the same page. He is performing his due diligence to make sure the process itself is safeguarded and he wants to vet this application appropriately. That's how it should be. But at the end of the day, I think he will allow the adjournment.

But....they are going to have to give him some "meat", as he said.
Microsoft might need to make a donation. They'll buy a hundred thousand pounds of marmite for underprivileged children.
 
I don't get that feeling. I get the feeling there is no agreed proposal at all and MS want to avoid a decision because it would make it easier for ATVI to walk away tomorrow night.

All that seems to be on offer is an undertaking by both sides to negotiate more.
You might be right. That would explain the lack of willingness for disclosure i.e there's nothing to be disclosed. But I believe the CMA certainly feel there's something there, echoed by MS... 🤷‍♂️
 
You think people who buy real estate for rent purposes do so with the expectation that they'll make back the money used to buy the house with 2-5 years of rent?

Family Feud Lol GIF by Steve Harvey
Nice meme, though irrelevant
In houses its different kind of investment. And usually they make it back in 10-12 years in my country
 
Somewhere in this deep, long thread, I made a post stating that a deal of this magnitude will always become political. Politics will always come into play, with deals like this, and there'll always be more at play, than what meets the eyes, or what the public is privy to seeing.

And this hearing, along with the FTC's case against MS, is absolute proof of this. I also stated that many of these arm-chair experts on Gaf (and in the general/enthusiast gaming community) don't have a proper or thorough understanding of this, and can only make their decisions and predictions based on their bias/favourites, and cherry-picking information to support those biases (myself included). So many were certain that the CMA would rule against MS, and while they got that right, they got it right for the wrong reasons (It was the cloud considerations that stopped CMA from okay-ing the deal - which no one saw coming). So many were certain the EU would follow suit; they were wrong. They were certain the FTC would win, because big-bad-monopoly MS-bad-for-consumers; got that wrong too. And now, this...

At the time when I made some of those statements, I was heckled and mocked.

Now, here we are...

Indeed, here we are despite many of us saying and discussing things that you said "nobody saw coming".

Funny that.
 
I'd love to know what conversation made the CMA so flaccid.

Political Pressure could be a reason.

For some reason England acts like we can be a sillicone valley type thing. As soon as the initial block came MS & Kotick basically said pffft. Bollocks. They're closed for buisness and been that way since Brexit. So the Tories could be pilling pressure on the CMA to try shake the notion we're a closed off country to tech.

The Brexit remark could of also tilted the current Govt as so far its been a resounding failure and one of the biggest companies on the planet hammered it home.

That's my take anyway
 
Somewhere in this deep, long thread, I made a post stating that a deal of this magnitude will always become political. Politics will always come into play, with deals like this, and there'll always be more at play, than what meets the eyes, or what the public is privy to seeing.

And this hearing, along with the FTC's case against MS, is absolute proof of this. I also stated that many of these arm-chair experts on Gaf (and in the general/enthusiast gaming community) don't have a proper or thorough understanding of this, and can only make their decisions and predictions based on their bias/favourites, and cherry-picking information to support those biases (myself included). So many were certain that the CMA would rule against MS, and while they got that right, they got it right for the wrong reasons (It was the cloud considerations that stopped CMA from okay-ing the deal - which no one saw coming). So many were certain the EU would follow suit; they were wrong. They were certain the FTC would win, because big-bad-monopoly MS-bad-for-consumers; got that wrong too. And now, this...

At the time when I made some of those statements, I was heckled and mocked.

Now, here we are...

Eh....you can pat yourself on the back all you want, but you are mischaracterizing much of what has been said by many of us in this thread.

"They were certain the FTC would win"

Cracking Up Lol GIF
 
They seem to be saying that the Sony deal is a significant change of circumstances? Does this imply that the Sony deal includes reasonable access to CoD in the cloud?

Either way, this all seems very panicky and trying to bypass due process. It seems unreasonable to not allow third parties to have their say on any decisions made, after the CMA have in turn had time to review that the proposed changes and ensure they are materially different (and sufficient) to those previously proposed. Why should anyone care about Microsoft's timelines? If they really want the deal then maybe MS & ABK should just extend the time period of the deal?
 
Indeed, here we are despite many of us saying and discussing things that you said "nobody saw coming".

Funny that.
No one saw that the CMA's issue would be cloud specific. Maybe 1 or 2 of you here did, but that wasn't the consensus. That conversation only became a reality after the fact. So, let's be honest here. And that's the only thing I mentioned that no one saw coming.

Give me a break. Perhaps keep your ego at the door, before you decide to hit "reply".
 
I'd love to know what conversation made the CMA so flaccid.
Did you not see the CMA's brand new spiffy HP ultrabooks?

Microsoft are divesting CoD to HP or Dell, or Intel, or anyone else without a major Cloud infrastructure that they can fully lean on and gives Microsoft full control over CoD while still looking like they appeased the SLC.
 
Somewhere in this deep, long thread, I made a post stating that a deal of this magnitude will always become political. Politics will always come into play, with deals like this, and there'll always be more at play, than what meets the eyes, or what the public is privy to seeing.

And this hearing, along with the FTC's case against MS, is absolute proof of this. I also stated that many of these arm-chair experts on Gaf (and in the general/enthusiast gaming community) don't have a proper or thorough understanding of this, and can only make their decisions and predictions based on their bias/favourites, and cherry-picking information to support those biases (myself included). So many were certain that the EU would rule against MS; they got that wtong. They were then certain the CMA would disapprove of the deal, and while they got that right, they got it right for the wrong reasons (It was the cloud considerations that stopped CMA from okay-ing the deal - which no one saw coming). They were certain the MS lawyer fell right into the CMA's lawyer's play-dumb tactic (it wasn't a tactic, he really was a half-wit), and they'd win that pre-trial; got that wrong too. They were certain the FTC would win, because big-bad-monopoly MS-bad-for-consumers; ...got that wrong too. They were certain the FTC's appeal would go through, and MS would lose another hearing case; the appeal was considered ludicrous, their arguments weak, and it got denied, with absolution. And now, this...

At the time when I made some of those statements, I was heckled and mocked.

Now, here we are...
1hhv9m.jpg
 
you can tell beard is a cut above, however he's not got a lot to work with here. if he gets batted back again here i can't see them getting their way today
 
Eh....you can pat yourself on the back all you want, but you are mischaracterizing much of what has been said by many of us in this thread.

"They were certain the FTC would win"

Cracking Up Lol GIF
Did I say all of you? Clearly some of you had favourites (whatever your reasons, aren't important). Clearly some people thought certain players would emerge victorious, at various points throughout this entire thing. My main post that I was referring to, was when I said (paraphrasing) you guys shouldn't be so quick to speak conclusively on something it's evident many of us here don't fully understand.

And while it's all well and good to protect consumers; there is a political agenda also at play here, which is almost unavoidable when you're dealing with corporations this big, throwing around this much money. It becomes more than just "let's protect consumers". There are other vehicles at play, vehicles we may not even be aware of. That's all I was trying to say, in my initial post. It was just an observation, albeit a correct one (in hindsight).

Instead of people have an intelligent decision around that post or observation, I was heckled, mocked and made fun of (similarly to what is happening now, huh?). I guess some people don't learn.

Why no one wants to keep their bias secondary, and keep objectivism primary is beyond me.

Edit to add: I even said "including me" in the post you were referring to. Even I didn't understand everything, and was sometimes making decisions based on my biases. I admit to that. I even admitted to it, at the time. I'm not immune from that either. But what I was saying, despite those biases, I knew this purchase was going to become political. It clearly has. I wasn't wrong about that.
 
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