Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Madflavor

Member
I know it's easy to forget with all that's going on, but just a few weeks ago he was casually talking about Canada as the 51st state and talking about annexing NATO allies...
I mean Canada has been one of the US's closest allies ffs, what kind of message will the world get by watching this unfold?
And then he goes and begins a trade war with the whole damn world.
Regardless of him being serious or not with the Canada and Greenland talk, all these shenanigans will inevitably make foreign treasury holders feel uneasy.
Since he really seems to believe in tariffs, he could've done it more strategically and perhaps avoid some of this bond market backlash, but instead he chose to carpet bomb the global economy so here we are.

I agree with the way GHG GHG has been saying it. Trump overplayed his hand. We are a very powerful nation obviously, but he seemed to think he could just bully everyone to do what we want, and they would have to bend the knee. Evidently that is not happening, and I think (or at least I hope) that reality is setting in for him. The situation is quickly turning into "how can I salvage this?"
 
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IntentionalPun

Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
The US is almost a third of worldwide goods consumption. If we don't buy your stuff you're basically screwed.

It seems to me that most of the world depends on us to buy their crap.
And why would the world not want to become less dependent on us? Particularly if we are an absolutely unpredictable trade partner?
 

EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
Cheap goods due to market forces and free trade = high purchasing power
Americans have among the highest median income and among the lowest effective tax rate = high income
High purchasing power and high income = able to buy the things you want = successful

Protectionist tariff policies eliminate the cheap goods, massively increase the effective tax rate, and harm the economy (which in turn reduce income and opportunity).

Great plan if the goal is to become poor.
 

Great Auk

Member
So for you it all comes back to... China?

I can't help but feel your angst towards China is highly hypocritical considering they have been the sole partners and enablers throughout what has been an economic golden age for the US.

Pretty much all of the obscene economic growth you've experienced over the last ~20 years has been off the back of their open door manufacturing/economic policies and cheap labour.

The ridiculously high margins (and continuous margin growth) that the top companies on the US stock market have managed to deliver over the last couple of decades? Again, mostly thanks to China.

So now that you've created a monster, by willingly giving away all your methodologies and secrets, you have an agenda and want to punish them? It could have been prevented/stopped at any point before, but as it often does, greed prevailed.

So now, ironically, in order to fight them, you must become them, and you're supportive of that? Nah man, sorry, but it makes no sense. My frank opinion is that you need to try and approach all of this from a different angle. Making one of your closest business partners and business allies a boogeyman isn't going to solve all your problems at home.

I didn't want China to turn into a monster to begin with. I didn't want American companies to go overseas and screw over Americans to begin with. So now finally someone says F that shit and I'm supposed to be against it because people in the past against my preference allowed things to get so out of hand? So then according to your logic this situation has to continue forever because now we can't say enough is enough because of mistakes made in the past. Bad logic.

I also disagree with you premise that China made the US great. It is actually quite the opposite. The US built China. Literally. American capital flowing into that country, employing millions over the last few decades, literally building China's middle class, and allowing a trade deficit to balloon to 400 billion dollars annually. We literally built that country.

China is simply not a good economic partner. They cheat at everything. They're not for anyone. You frame it as if it's a China US problem. I assure you, it is not.
 

GHG

Gold Member
Cheap goods due to market forces and free trade = high purchasing power
Americans have among the highest median income and among the lowest effective tax rate = high income
High purchasing power and high income = able to buy the things you want = successful

Protectionist tariff policies eliminate the cheap goods, massively increase the effective tax rate, and harm the economy (which in turn reduce income and opportunity).

Great plan if the goal is to become poor.

Yep.

Disposable-income-by-country-768x248-1.png.webp


And for no reason that I can find other than pettiness, Trump wants to throw it all away.

I can recognise the fact that the national debt is an issue. I can recognise the fact that the trade deficit is an issue (which in itself feeds in to the debt issue).

But my goodness, you won't find a single economist or economic historian in the world who will tell you that this is the way to solve it.
 

Great Auk

Member
And why would the world not want to become less dependent on us? Particularly if we are an absolutely unpredictable trade partner?

Because at the end of the day, we are the most stable currency to trade with.

Even the EU's purchasing power is no where near the US's, we simply buy a lot more stuff. We literally keep the world in business and we pay with reliable currency.
 

GudOlRub

Member
And why would the world not want to become less dependent on us? Particularly if we are an absolutely unpredictable trade partner?
Personally speaking, without US services I probably wouldn't even have a job as a software developer, whether we like it or not their tech is crucial to the IT infrastructure of the world and it will continue to be so for a good while at least.
But in terms of goods? I never particularly cared for US goods but all this is doing is making me want to actively avoid them.
I'll keep using US services since I don't have much choice, but other than that I'll try to avoid products if I have a choice to buy from some place else that's not actively trying to antagonise us.

Today I sold most of the my portfolio since it went back to green, I kept some VWCE that I bought in January and is still in the red and I kept my Intel stocks because I bought them as a meme and think it's funny, but other than that for sure I'm not dropping a single cent more on the US stock market until someone seriously reigns in on this madness.

I mean, I can understand wanting to bring some manufacturing back, I do agree that the trend the US economy had was unsustainable in the long term, focusing your economy on services alone and outsourcing all manufacturing is a huge risk, especially if a big war comes and you have to isolate yourself to some extent, but the way to undo some of that is not by strong-arming everyone and treating your allies like shit.
With the leverage the US has, deals could be made without any of this mess...
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Cheap goods due to market forces and free trade = high purchasing power
Americans have among the highest median income and among the lowest effective tax rate = high income
High purchasing power and high income = able to buy the things you want = successful

Protectionist tariff policies eliminate the cheap goods, massively increase the effective tax rate, and harm the economy (which in turn reduce income and opportunity).

Great plan if the goal is to become poor.
And for American homeowners, part of that disposable income comes from being able to write off mortgage interest expense. Something only a few countries in the world allows.

Add it up and not surprised the US has lots of disposable income per person.

Problem is Americans like buying tons of shit going into debt so any price increases now go counter to the lifestyle, which would be higher prices and less eating out and buying stuff from Amazon kind of thing.
 

Great Auk

Member
Personally speaking, without US services I probably wouldn't even have a job as a software developer, whether we like it or not their tech is crucial to the IT infrastructure of the world and it will continue to be so for a good while at least.
But in terms of goods? I never particularly cared for US goods but all this is doing is making me want to actively avoid them.
I'll keep using US services since I don't have much choice, but other than that I'll try to avoid products if I have a choice to buy from some place else that's not actively trying to antagonise us.

Today I sold most of the my portfolio since it went back to green, I kept some VWCE that I bought in January and is still in the red and I kept my Intel stocks because I bought them as a meme and think it's funny, but other than that for sure I'm not dropping a single cent more on the US stock market until someone seriously reigns in on this madness.

I mean, I can understand wanting to bring some manufacturing back, I do agree that the trend the US economy had was unsustainable in the long term, focusing your economy on services alone and outsourcing all manufacturing is a huge risk, especially if a big war comes and you have to isolate yourself to some extent, but the way to undo some of that is not by strong-arming everyone and treating your allies like shit.
With the leverage the US has, deals could be made without any of this mess...

How come you're not upset at China?

They engage is currency manipulation, government heavily subsiding industries to crush competition, flood the world with counterfeit goods, engage in widespread intellectual property theft, etc.

This has to end. Enough already.
 

Great Auk

Member
And for American homeowners, part of that disposable income comes from being able to write off mortgage interest expense. Something only a few countries in the world allows.

Add it up and not surprised the US has lots of disposable income per person.

Problem is Americans like buying tons of shit going into debt so any price increases now go counter to the lifestyle, which would be higher prices and less eating out and buying stuff from Amazon kind of thing.

Important fact, with the new tax code enacted in 2017, while you can write off mortgage interest when you itemize deductions, your property taxes are capped at 10,000, and couple that with the loss of personal exemptions and the doubling of the standard deduction, most people (over 90%) take the standard deduction now. So most people don't take advantage of the mortgage deduction since the standard deduction yields a better return.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
How come you're not upset at China?

They engage is currency manipulation, government heavily subsiding industries to crush competition, flood the world with counterfeit goods, engage in widespread intellectual property theft, etc.

This has to end. Enough already.
Aside from people directly concerned with jobs or ultra patriots from the get go buying local first, personally I think the avg person buying stuff doesn't give a shit.

I know I dont. As long as what I buy looks like a good product at a reasonable price, I dont care where it's made. If it's made in a shack in an Antarctic research station who cares. And I'd bet most people are like this too whether it's before tariffs or after tariffs where some countries have tried going the anti-US patriotic route trying to get people buying local.

You can tell people dont care because among the most mainstream and popular product categories people buy like cars, clothes, tech and food are going to be heavily skewed to overseas manufacturing, unless just by coincidence someone buys it and it turns out it's made domestically. Half the beers are probably bottled and shipped across oceans too.
 
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GHG

Gold Member
I didn't want China to turn into a monster to begin with. I didn't want American companies to go overseas and screw over Americans to begin with. So now finally someone says F that shit and I'm supposed to be against it because people in the past against my preference allowed things to get so out of hand? So then according to your logic this situation has to continue forever because now we can't say enough is enough because of mistakes made in the past. Bad logic.

You misunderstand me. I'm not saying continue forever, I'm saying you should ease off the gas instead of emergency braking when there is no imminent obstacle on the road. How exactly that looks, I don't know, but there are highly paid professionals out there whose job it is to come up with a solution instead of a group of people just saying break everything and see where the chips land.

I also disagree with you premise that China made the US great. It is actually quite the opposite. The US built China. Literally. American capital flowing into that country, employing millions over the last few decades, literally building China's middle class, and allowing a trade deficit to balloon to 400 billion dollars annually. We literally built that country.

China is simply not a good economic partner. They cheat at everything. They're not for anyone. You frame it as if it's a China US problem. I assure you, it is not.

You can disagree all you want but the facts and history are available for you to see for yourself.

Where it all started:


The results, year by year:



And no, the US alone aren't responsible for China's growth, they became the manufacturing and economic partner of the world. Of course when something like that happens a symbiotic relationship will develop where China would also benefit.

What did you expect? To get all that access to cheap labour and manufacturing without it benefiting China in some way? They were never going to be your whipping boy forever.
 
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StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Important fact, with the new tax code enacted in 2017, while you can write off mortgage interest when you itemize deductions, your property taxes are capped at 10,000, and couple that with the loss of personal exemptions and the doubling of the standard deduction, most people (over 90%) take the standard deduction now. So most people don't take advantage of the mortgage deduction since the standard deduction yields a better return.
Im not american, so I just went by what I knew and read from long time ago.

I dont understand the 10,000 property tax thing or anything else you said. By however it shakes out, it sounds like a bargain I think.
 

IntentionalPun

Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
Because at the end of the day, we are the most stable currency to trade with.

Even the EU's purchasing power is no where near the US's, we simply buy a lot more stuff. We literally keep the world in business and we pay with reliable currency.
With high tariffs we will pretty quickly NOT be buying as much from the world.

With protectionist policies where we manufacture more we will be buying less from the world.

Being in this position as the world's biggest economy buying everyone else's stuff is partly what helps keep our currency so valuable in the first place. What you seem to be proposing is for us to lose a lot of that leverage, and it seems really backwards when compared to how you talk about the rest of the world.

We can have strong manufacturing where it makes sense but bringing in more manufacturing of cheap products does not, IMO.
 
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GudOlRub

Member
How come you're not upset at China?

They engage is currency manipulation, government heavily subsiding industries to crush competition, flood the world with counterfeit goods, engage in widespread intellectual property theft, etc.

This has to end. Enough already.
Because they can and have been more reasoned with compared with the US since Trump took over.
Example, not long ago the Chinese auto industry was on the loom of wreaking havoc on Europe's auto industry, so the EU levied tariffs on Chinese cars, China understandably got angry but after some negotiation both sides came to an agreement without having to fuck over the auto industry and the common people with a stupid trade war.

Europe has been under the US's umbrella since WW2, Trump could've easily made deals that benefitted both parties and I would've happily choosen american goods over chinese ones but here we are...
 

Great Auk

Member
You misunderstand me. I'm not saying continue forever, I'm saying you should ease off the gas instead of emergency braking when there is no imminent obstacle on the road. How exactly that looks, I don't know, but there are highly paid professionals out there whose job it is to come up with a solution instead of a group of people just saying break everything and see where the chips land.



You can disagree all you want but the facts and history are available for you to see for yourself.

Where it all started:


The results, year by year:



And no, the US alone aren't responsible for China's growth, they became the manufacturing and economic partner of the world. Of course when someonthing like that happens a symbiotic relationship will develop where China would also benefit.

What did you expect? To get all that access to cheap labour and manufacturing without it benefiting China in some way? They were never going to be your whipping boy forever.

When were they our whipping boy? 40 years ago China was 1 billion peasants.

American companies, in their pursuit for more profit, built that country into a powerhouse with the flow of American capital and employing millions of people there. Sounds like the Chinese got quite the deal.

Remember the US is responsible for almost a third of the world's consumption.

I'm not sure how your links say that China made the US great btw.
 

Great Auk

Member
With high tariffs we will pretty quickly NOT be buying as much from the world.

With protectionist policies where we manufacture more we will be buying less from the world.

Being in this position as the world's biggest economy buying everyone else's stuff is partly what helps keep our currency so valuable in the first place. What you seem to be proposing is for us to lose a lot of that leverage, and it seems really backwards when compared to how you talk about the rest of the world.

We can have strong manufacturing where it makes sense but bringing in more manufacturing of cheap products does not, IMO.

I want targeted protectionist policies in key sectors and goods. No trade barriers with countries that trade in good faith.

A lot of you are arguing from the position that I support Trump's across the board tarrifs wholesale which is not true at all.
 

IntentionalPun

Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
I want targeted protectionist policies in key sectors and goods. No trade barriers with countries that trade in good faith.

A lot of you are arguing from the position that I support Trump's across the board tarrifs wholesale which is not true at all.
Well you have yet to criticize any of what Trump has been doing and it is a lot more than just putting tariffs on China, so it's kind of hard to tell you aren't in support of it all.
 

Great Auk

Member
Well you have yet to criticize any of what Trump has been doing and it is a lot more than just putting tariffs on China, so it's kind of hard to tell you aren't in support of it all.

I've posted a few times that for the record I don't agree with blanket tariffs.

I don't expect people to go back several pages to see that though so it's not a big deal.

But let me say for the record, I don't agree with the blanket tariffs lol
 

Rentahamster

Rodent Whores
When were they our whipping boy? 40 years ago China was 1 billion peasants.

American companies, in their pursuit for more profit, built that country into a powerhouse with the flow of American capital and employing millions of people there. Sounds like the Chinese got quite the deal.

Remember the US is responsible for almost a third of the world's consumption.

I'm not sure how your links say that China made the US great btw.

Part of the reason we consume so much is due to cheap manufacturing in China. It's a double edged sword.

We made each other great. We made their poor people middle class urbanites and they made our rich people richer lol.
 

IntentionalPun

Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
I've posted a few times that for the record I don't agree with blanket tariffs.

I don't expect people to go back several pages to see that though so it's not a big deal.

But let me say for the record, I don't agree with the blanket tariffs lol
Sorry that wasn't' really fair of me haven't read every post.
 

GHG

Gold Member
When were they our whipping boy? 40 years ago China was 1 billion peasants.

American companies, in their pursuit for more profit, built that country into a powerhouse with the flow of American capital and employing millions of people there. Sounds like the Chinese got quite the deal.

Remember the US is responsible for almost a third of the world's consumption.

I'm not sure how your links say that China made the US great btw.

The way that they are being treated and talked about by your administration implies that you still see them as your whipping boys. Your "peasant" comment is very much in line with that. Being disrespectful to them is unlikely to get you anywhere.

I didn't say they made you great, they have been the primary contributory factor to your accelerated economic growth. The growth in China-US trade has gone in lock-step with that and you can see it in the numbers. China-US trade goes from $8 billion to $352 billion just 20 years later. If you don't think that's been a huge factor in your economic and stock market margin growth over the same period then I'd like some of what you're smoking.
 

Gp1

Member
Figure I'll ask here and hope for an answer--

My father passed a few years back and I know, from growing up he had investments in at least 3 or 4 stocks.

Mom doesn't remember and I don't have the slightest clue how to find out what they were, how much it was, getting them to Mom or myself..nothing.

Any ideas?

I did the process of my mother's estate 2 years ago.
Providing that you (or your mother) are legally the administrator of your father's estate... At least where i live, i could go and demand this kind of information directly with the bank/investment broker and they are legally obliged to give all your father's investment state until the day of his death.

If you don't have even the faintest idea... I would shoot for the banks your father had an account and, after that, to the biggest brokers/banks in your area.
If that doesn't work, a lawyer would be good.
 

Madflavor

Member
Um I don't know if the dollar is merely weakening, or is actually heading towards crashing. I'm not an expert in the gold and bond market, but if the dollar crashes, wouldn't that be a full blown collapse of the US Economy? Not trying to be alarmist as again I'm not an expert, so I'm hoping this just means it's weakning.
 
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GHG

Gold Member
I wouldn't be too alarmed about the Dollar yet.

All signs are that it's primarily due to the unwinding of Yen carry trades yet again (the same thing that sank markets last August).

It's if the current surge in the Euro fails to subside that you need to be worried.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
A more important thing to consider IMO about higher prices isn't even the tariff part. It's the long term effects. Lets say this US/China pissing match goes on for a while, and in 90 days the other countries tariffs get unpaused.

Life goes on, higher prices, and then at some point cooler heads will prevail and tariffs reduce. Lets assume that happens. People will expect prices to drop like a rock back to normal.

BUT, similar to covid when supply was short due to less workers and inefficiencies with covid protocols, so a lot of manufacturers just jacked up prices to compensate. Demand still there or pretty good, but less production. So if tariffs negatively affect lots of suppliers and they go broke as they cant weather tariff storm, then you might get lot fewer manufacturers. And they arent stupid. If demand is good, the remaining ones will jack it up anyway.
 
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Madflavor

Member


He's not kidding. There is a 0% chance Trump wins this. Best he can hope for is working out a deal where both sides can come out looking good, or in a way where Trump can spin that he looks good.

China truly gives 0 fucks.
 
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He's not kidding. There is a 0% chance Trump wins this. Best he can hope for is working out a deal where both sides can come out looking good, or in a way where Trump can spin that he looks good.

China truly gives 0 fucks.
China gives a lot of fucks, it's just that the Chinese people who will be losing their jobs over this have zero power to do anything about it. Which has been the case for five thousand years, if millions of them need to starve or die on the battlefield so their Divine Leader can save face they do so.
 

Nocty

Gold Member
US Origin Imports from 84% to 125%, Effective From Apr 12.

Big
OOooooof.

As US exports to China are no longer market-viable under current tariff levels - "if US proceeds with further tariff hikes, China will no longer respond." The cost is already over saturated. Direct trade between the two countries is not viable anymore, credibility is now at stake.
 

Great Auk

Member
The way that they are being treated and talked about by your administration implies that you still see them as your whipping boys. Your "peasant" comment is very much in line with that. Being disrespectful to them is unlikely to get you anywhere.

I didn't say they made you great, they have been the primary contributory factor to your accelerated economic growth. The growth in China-US trade has gone in lock-step with that and you can see it in the numbers. China-US trade goes from $8 billion to $352 billion just 20 years later. If you don't think that's been a huge factor in your economic and stock market margin growth over the same period then I'd like some of what you're smoking.

I'm not in the administration, so I'm not sure why you apply the term "whiipping boy" to me.

And they were in fact peasants. Nearly all of them. I'm just accurately describing the situation.

u9h6jEK.png


Rentahamster Rentahamster said it best, we made their poor middle class and they made our rich richer.

We already had a huge middle class. We didn't NEED to ship everything overseas.
 
Lol I see. When a Chinese bureaucrat sounds like Trump that's a savage burn. When Trump does it he's an imbecile.
Yes it is, because Trump is the aggressor in this situation. He started this pissing contest, like the dumb fuck jackass that he is.

The United States for most of its history didn't trade with China either.

I promise you they care lol, they care very much in fact.
They care for sure.
But they also care about their own sovereignty just as much as the US cares about itself. What would you expect them to do with the US attempting to bully them? Just lay down and get fucked?

So far, from what I've seen. You've largely been completely uncritical of the White House's rhetoric, while completely ignoring the fact that Chinese people might have their own interests at heart over the US.
I don't even like China. But if you completely ignore their humanity and desire for self-determination and autonomy and not wanting to bend over to US imperialism, you are crazy.
 
I'm not in the administration, so I'm not sure why you apply the term "whiipping boy" to me.

And they were in fact peasants. Nearly all of them. I'm just accurately describing the situation.
For most of the US's history, so were most US citizens. Most people in the world before WW1 were peasants. Even in America
u9h6jEK.png


Rentahamster Rentahamster said it best, we made their poor middle class and they made our rich richer.

We already had a huge middle class. We didn't NEED to ship everything overseas.
So how is that China's fault? China pulled its own population out of abject poverty. So they did right by their own people.
Antagonising China will not resolve this problem, as countless others have said. You're shooting yourself in the foot for no reason just to stick it to China? C'mon now.
 
"need" is a relative term here. Companies "needed" to save on costs in order to generate more profit. Consumers "needed" cheaper goods in order to be able to buy more stuff. Hardly anyone was really thinking about where this could all end up in 40 years.


Interestingly enough, the guy talking about this 30 years ago was an independent who didn't belong to either major political party.
 

RJMacready73

Simps for Amouranth
Cheap goods due to market forces and free trade = high purchasing power
Americans have among the highest median income and among the lowest effective tax rate = high income
High purchasing power and high income = able to buy the things you want = successful

Protectionist tariff policies eliminate the cheap goods, massively increase the effective tax rate, and harm the economy (which in turn reduce income and opportunity).

Great plan if the goal is to become poor.
How else are you gonna fill those factories? Well the ones not filled to the brim with Tesla Robots
 

Great Auk

Member
Yes it is, because Trump is the aggressor in this situation. He started this pissing contest, like the dumb fuck jackass that he is.


They care for sure.
But they also care about their own sovereignty just as much as the US cares about itself. What would you expect them to do with the US attempting to bully them? Just lay down and get fucked?

So far, from what I've seen. You've largely been completely uncritical of the White House's rhetoric, while completely ignoring the fact that Chinese people might have their own interests at heart over the US.
I don't even like China. But if you completely ignore their humanity and desire for self-determination and autonomy and not wanting to bend over to US imperialism, you are crazy.

My friend, I only get upset with China because they do not participate in the world economy in good faith. There is a reason I am singling them out.

I will repeat what I have already said. They engage in currency manipulation, erect strict trade barriers, steal intellectual property, flood the market with counterfeit goods, the government heavily subsidizes industries to the point where other markets simply can't compete and therefore collapse (think solar panels and the Amazon.com/Diapers.com situation,) etc.

There is no outrage about all that for some reason. Probably because it's been building over time and people got used to it. Frog in slowly heating water.
 

Great Auk

Member
Cheap goods due to market forces and free trade = high purchasing power
Americans have among the highest median income and among the lowest effective tax rate = high income
High purchasing power and high income = able to buy the things you want = successful

Protectionist tariff policies eliminate the cheap goods, massively increase the effective tax rate, and harm the economy (which in turn reduce income and opportunity).

Great plan if the goal is to become poor.

Should we eliminate the minimum wage? And I mean at all levels, not just federal. Becuase it acts as an artificial floor to the costs of a service/product and therefore making it more expensive than it has to be. That's not a true free market. If protectionist tariffs are a bad thing, let's eliminate protectionist wages.

What I think would happpen long term with protectionist tariffs is more poor people would become at least lower middle class and a lot of upper middle class would become regular middle class. The rich will remain rich.
 

dem

Member
Canadian energy producers are just... screaming for me to buy them...

Sweating James Mcavoy GIF


Those juicy yields...
They don't need high oil price to sustain...

lord help me
 

MikeM

Member
For most of the US's history, so were most US citizens. Most people in the world before WW1 were peasants. Even in America

So how is that China's fault? China pulled its own population out of abject poverty. So they did right by their own people.
Antagonising China will not resolve this problem, as countless others have said. You're shooting yourself in the foot for no reason just to stick it to China? C'mon now.
Its a symptom of the mentality of everything must go up, regardless of the social cost. Capitalism, when abused, will make a smaller and smaller pool of winners and a bigger and bigger pool of losers.

China delivered what big investors wanted- increasing profit regardless of how.
 
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