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[Jive Turkey]

Sony is so, so so fucked. Bleeding money from every corner, PSVita failing hard and with no hype in the USA, PS3 stuck in YOY sales (i think, don't quote me!), TV Business a disaster, no longer a premium brand, etc... they are in real trouble.

Totally anecdotal: I was wasting time at Hastings about ten days ago and a guy who looked to be in his late teens started talking to the clerk about PSP games. I didn't hear the initial question but from the context I'm assuming it was something along the lines of "Why aren't there any new PSP games coming out?" The kid goes on to tell the clerk that he's a "hardcore Playstation fan". The clerk responds by telling him about the Vita and the kid had no clue what he was talking about. Now sure anybody who identifies themself as a hardcore anything leaves me a little underwhelmed but the fact that a Playstation fanboy didn't know about the Vita's existence doesn't really bode well.

 

[Evoga]

Looks like I am right about Howard Stringer leaving next year. Big changes are coming for Sony.

 

[Relix]

If those are the reasons for your previous post (and you're still being serious) then i don't think you really comprehend the corporational size of Sony.

I know this. And yes, I am serious. Sony is in trouble. They have been bleeding money for the past few years, how is this not understandable? Corporate size doesn't matter here, the bottom line is that they are bleeding millions and they need to trim down the fat, make adjustments, etc.

Totally anecdotal: I was wasting time at Hastings about ten days ago and a guy who looked to be in his late teens started talking to the clerk about PSP games. I didn't hear the initial question but from the context I'm assuming it was something along the lines of "Why aren't there any new PSP games coming out?" The kid goes on to tell the clerk that he's a "hardcore Playstation fan". The clerk responds by telling him about the Vita and the kid had no clue what he was talking about. Now sure anybody who identifies themself as a hardcore anything leaves me a little underwhelmed but the fact that a Playstation fanboy didn't know about the Vita's existance doesn't really bode well.

Most of the "hardcore" gamers I know aren't too pumped up for the system, except for one.... but this one called me a fucking idiot when I bought a 3DS. He really took that one personal

 

[TunaLover]

Cutting the price down could be terrible for Sony, they are already selling Vita at slight lost.

 

[BurntPork]

I was Day 1 Vita, I was like $249.99, hoping for memory card be price accordingly to the market or close to it

4GB - $9.99
16GB - $29.99
64GB - $49.99

Then all the other bullshit comes along, the PSP UMD transfer "fee", one account, delayed release, game prices all over the place (no consistency, yeah Uncharted PSV for $50, give me a fucking a break), and the way Sony has shown how it updates it's stores and prices DD wise, I think that will hurt it the most

Even the most hardcore PSV user will learn Grace Chen Time, and the stupidness that ensues with the weekly PSN store updates

Are you high?

 

[Burai]

While it's not all doom and gloom, I can see what's described in the OP to happen. Like it or not, Apple DID change how people perceive portable gaming in america, generally speaking. And it's not the price of the machines that are the problems, people are shelling 250$ easily just for an Ipod. It's the price of games that is the true problems. People might not want to pay 40$+ for a portable game anymore. Apple spoiled them. I don't think it's right but the only real value that exist is "perceived value" and that's where Apple stabbed everyone. And there's also another undeniable truth that people are starting to realise: It's not the size of the game that decides the fun. People are looking for entertainment and that's all. Small games on IOS are doing just that and for 99c. It's all about fun and nothing else.

You've almost hit the nail on the head.

Problem is, people didn't want to buy full-priced PSP games even when there wasn't a flourishing smartphone app market. That's always been the problem. There has never, in the west especially, been a lucrative market for fully-fledged hardcore console titles at full price on a handheld. In Japan things were different due to homegrown developers choosing to divert their attention and PS2 assets and budgets to the DS and PSP, but in the west PSP never saw any sustained software success.

So did Apple really ruin everything or did they, as I believe, just give people what they really wanted (bite-sized diversions) at a price they thought was worth it?

 

[cj_iwakura]

Well, at least I won't need a second one to play imports.

I've got like six imported PSP games, and I'm sure the same'll be true of the Vita.

 

[bigtroyjon]

If those are the reasons for your previous post (and you're still being serious) then i don't think you really comprehend the corporational size of Sony.

Are you being serious?

Sony's financial information

Feel free to look through there and let us know what is wrong about his post. (might not want to waste your time though since he's not wrong.)

 

[plagiarize]

sony is in trouble in Japan. no question. they are not doomed, but they now have a lot of work to do in that market to salvage things. they may well be able to as they were able to turn around the PS3.

it is untrue to say they are doomed. it is untrue to think this will magically fix itself, or that everything is fine.

Nintendo were not doomed with their 3DS sales, but they certainly didn't pretend everything was hunkydory, and that the multiple they actions to try and right the ship seem to have succeeded do not change that they were in serious trouble prior to taking those actions.

the 3DS didn't magically turn around. the PS3 didn't either. the PSVita won't.

it isn't all fine, but Sony can still fix it. now we just know they need to, and that it's not going to be easy.

portable games costing the equivalent of $45 or $50 will start failing long before the PSVita and 3DS do, if indeed the cost of the games is the problem. both platforms have lots of games below those prices, many of which are well regarded.

last i checked the two 3D Mario titles in Japan were selling just fine.

 

[Haint]

Their biggest fucked up was not pushing out western launches for the Holidays--even if it were only 200 or 300k units (which probably would have worked in their favor, creating a supply constrained fervor). February is going to put Vita either directly against (a technologically superior) iPad 3, or very strong rumors (or an official announcement) of its impending release. Furthermore, the $50 games (even if it's only a handful) and pricey memory cards will sink the Vita ship faster than the $250 hardware price IMO. You're looking over 1/3rd the hardware cost just to play Uncharted with a semi-future-proof memory stick. I think most people will make that value connection and kindly tell Sony to suck a fat one with their wallet.

 

[sublimit]

Cutting the price down could be terrible for Sony, they are already selling Vita at slight lost.

The problem is not the price IMO,the system needs more high profile games.Sony,just like Nintendo before them,was unprepared for the launch in terms of software.

 

[cyberheater]

Cutting the price down could be terrible for Sony, they are already selling Vita at slight lost.

How is that possible.

Pricing for the UK for a wifi only model of Vita, a 8gb memory card plus Uncharted is over £300. That's nearly $470. How can they be losing money on those crazy prices.

 

[Fantastical]

Hey Sony, Michelle Tanner has some words for you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nHlZml7h7g

 

[clemenx]

This is just me, but I have a shitty old phone that I didn't replace this christmas because I preferred to buy a 3DS. I'm pretty sure that the opposite happens quite a lot. I say this because I think gaf is wrong in thinking these markets don't overlap at all. Money isn't infinite and most portable stuff is competing against phones at some capacity.

 

[TunaLover]

How is that possible.

Pricing for the UK for a wifi only model of Vita, a 8gb memory card plus Uncharted is over £300. That's nearly $470. How can they be losing money on those crazy prices.

I mean the system alone, obviously they will rape with games and accesories prices.

 

[neptunes]

The problem is not the price IMO,the system needs more high profile games.Sony,just like Nintendo before them,was unprepared for the launch in terms of software.

and to think most people wanted Sony to launch in all regions this year.

Some interesting games are coming this year, I think Socom Unit #13 may do better than most people think, granted it won't be a "system seller" but it'll have legs and snowball into a solid franchise.

 

[Medalion]

Still too soon to call doom and gloom for Vita, let's see how the rest of the regions go, especially North America

 

[cyberheater]

I mean the system alone, obviously they will rape with games and accesories prices.

Well the system alone is basically useless unless you buy a really expensive Sony memory card to go in it. Bastards.

 

[Zoe]

What, in Japan? No, in fact part of the doom apocalyptic scenario was that the Vita had failed to even sell out of its launch shipment in two weeks.

Wifi version is sold out though, and no one wants the 3G version.

 

[bigtroyjon]

How is that possible.

Pricing for the UK for a wifi only model of Vita, a 8gb memory card plus Uncharted is over £300. That's nearly $470. How can they be losing money on those crazy prices.

Tax, retailer margin(considering how few handheld games actually sell in the UK, I'm guessing it's larger than normal), shipping&packing.

They don't get anywhere close to 100% of the money the end consumer pays.

 

[Tallshortman]

It's amazing how little Forbes understands the video game market. It's actually quite embarrassing.

 

[mugurumakensei]

Wifi version is sold out though, and no one wants the 3G version.

The Wifi version is not really sold out though...

 

[Relix]

The problem is not the price IMO,the system needs more high profile games.Sony,just like Nintendo before them,was unprepared for the launch in terms of software.

And that's something Sony lacks, the killer apps. Not much in the horizon at the moment, not even from Japanese developers. Someone already posted the Sony financial info, go read there and understand Sony's problem before attacking opinions please.

Nintendo has the advantage that they have a solid established base of... soccer mom and kids. They love Nintendo systems. Nintendo has a shitload of strong software coming up while Vita looks barren at the moment. The price IS high. For $250 you can get a cell phone with similar specs and to the mainstream consumer that's enough. For us, and "normal" gamers it doesn't matter, but Sony doesn't have the "kids" fanbase to sustain themselves. Price, memory card price, etc... WILL be a problem. IS a problem so far.

I for one like the Vita, and I will be buying one... after the price inevitably drops.

 

[Famassu]

The PSP was simply a portable PS2, and rather than learn from that mistake, they've repeated it with the Vita.

This shows you know jack shit about Vita. With Vita, from early on they are offering all kinds of content from cheap iPhone-esque games to differently priced retail titles. The first years of PSP were mostly filled with PS2 ports & PS2 Lite like sequels, but even that phase didn't last forever. Nowadays PSP is pretty much one of the best handhelds ever.

They've also added plenty of things PS3 can't do and improved the OS, so instead of being a downgraded PS3, it's different and better in many regards.

 

[Cipherr]

But what if it never even took any marketshare away from dedicated handhelds? It has probably taken some, but what if, like, 80-90% of people who play on smartphones are people who would never have even gotten a handheld, so they've expanded the market into a new direction instead of eaten away marketshare from dedicated devices.

If there is one thing I have learned from all this fuckery, its that people claiming smartphones are killing handheld gaming are absolutely, positively, and vehemently against the notion that perhaps both branches of gaming (mobile, and dedicated handheld) can grow, succeed, and exist alongside one another, the same way handheld gaming and console gaming have.

I cant explain why, Ive always assumed it was Android and iOS fanboys just beating their drums, but for some fucking reason, they insist on it being a war, where one side has to die despite all evidence to the contrary.

 

[Dead Prince]

+1 on new title.

 

[Relix]

Also, is it me or are analysts hell bent on crushing gaming portables with their iPhone/Android crap? Its not the same, and most people realize it. Why do they keep trying to force that shit down our throats is beyond me. The competition is definitely there but please.... its not that apocalyptic. Consider it market expansion.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

So did Apple really ruin everything or did they, as I believe, just give people what they really wanted (bite-sized diversions) at a price they thought was worth it?

Whatever they ruined, it's likely to be for the best in the long term as blanket prices of software are distorted compared to the value perceived by the mainstream. Is it really preferable that every new retail release on the big three's platforms has to fall into the same two buckets of pricing (high and higher)? Is it really preferable that gaming come only from those that can afford the steep investment that comes with publishing on dedicated gaming units? The market has more say in this now than they've ever had, with regard to pricing and choice of developers) and it means that the old industry model can finally fucking die (because it cannot survive the change) and availability and range of software can increase due to having more market to address with market-approved pricing. The big three are trying to hang on to something that is being left behind by the market, much like the book, record, or film industries who tried and failed to decide how everything works in the age of the internet and Swiss Army knife portable device. They should be embracing and redefining instead of fighting the changes that are out of their control.

Still, there is a market for dedicated gaming devices, but how much for this many competing devices and games and for how long?

 

[boiled goose]

The dedicated portable device market will probably shrink because of mobile gaming, but it will not disappear.

Titles like brain age and nintendogs can be replicated very easily on mobiles. These titles were responsible for a lot of growth in the portable market during last generation, and a lot of these new gamers will be satisfied with their mobile phones.

Games like pokemon, monster hunter, mario, mario kart, final fantasy, etc. are still better played on dedicated devices and their pricing is not really compatible with an App store approach.

The problem for Sony is that Nintendo seems to have realized this, and have tried to capture the PSP audience, since it is their expanded audience that will most likely be lost to mobile gaming.

Portable gaming will shrink this gen compared to last. That is almost certain. But it will stabilize and remain a profitable market for a lot of publishers.

 

[brotkasten]

Also, is it me or are analysts hell bent on crushing gaming portables with their iPhone/Android crap? Its not the same, and most people realize it. Why do they keep trying to force that shit down our throats is beyond me. The competition is definitely there but please.... its not that apocalyptic. Consider it market expansion.

They see Angry Birds sales, the revenue, profits, compare them to handheld games and then come to the conclusion that handhelds are dead.

I'm not kidding.

 

[waicol]

I´m on gaf?, i seriously had to check the banner and the address, thought as gamers people would knew the pricing structure for games on Vita and 3DS. But guess some people is just sitting on a corner waiting for a respected site to validate their opinions, crazy and wrong opinions sometimes.

 

[NemesisPrime]

Isn't it the fact that the shops were out of stock?

Errrrrr...???

 

[biggersmaller]

Poorly written article, but he has a point. There are many reasons the Vita will fail (post holiday launch, system price, a decaying PlayStation brand) - BUT the biggest knock is a failure to appeal to those outside the hardcore gamer market thanks to mobile devices and Nintendo DS. To expand on that antecodally: my young grade school cousins loved their DS because of Nintendogs, and my uncle didn't mind blowing $125 on a durable system seemingly built to be dropped. My uncle and aunt play $1 games on their phones. This typical American family will not buy this device, but is required to make a run of such a device.

Even worse! I commute everyday. I am a gamer. I have a good enough income and the means to carry such a device (a jacket...I live in MPLS). Yet...I am on the fence as I don't know if this thing is going to look any better than the next iPhone and I don't see one SINGLE game on the horizon to make the justification.

I don't know a single soul outside of these forums interested in this device.

I want to love it...but my brain tells me it will fail.

Honestly Sony, prove me wrong!

 

[Duxxy3]

A $250 portable game console is not viable.

Nintendo figured that out the hard way.

 

[dacuk]

Ok you guys keep saying the same thing over and over again "Nintendo games are making money". Yes everyone understands that.

What I'm and the article and a tiny few others are saying is that in the near future dedicated handhelds will not be on the market anymore.

Call me when your smartphones have an adequate way to control all types of games (no, touchpad is not that way) and a library of games that rival Sony, or even better, Nintendo IP.

Until that moment, your prophecies of doom are as valid as the chart graph seen on this thread.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

This article is nothing more than kneejerk reactionary bullshit. A drop in the 2nd week means that the console is doomed for the rest of its life? Give me a fucking break!

Never mind the fact that it's launch lineup is far more suited to the western markets than the Japanese market, a soft launch in Japan is not a good indicator of future success in the west at all!

And they just cant resist the usual bullshit comparisons with the smartphone/tablet markets!

Sony will likely be forced to cut the price of the PS Vita from 24’000 yen to well below 20’000 yen very soon. The upcoming US launch could be a true debacle for several reasons. Sony has decided to price Vita at $250, higher than the Amazon Kindle Fire.

So it's going to be killed by a low budget, low spec tablet that barely plays games at all. Totally competing for the same audience here...

I argued last week that PS Vita could mark the end of the era of portable game consoles. There is no doubt that Nintendo’s 3DS is going to sell at least 20 Million units globally over the next couple of years. But the portable console market may now have entered an age of permanent, slowly accelerating decline. The true test of the industry is the United States, where consumers are embracing games designed for smartphones and tablets. The possible shrinking of the portable game consumer base would hit the runner-up Sony before Nintendo really gets mauled. The rot sets in first at the periphery.

So the 3DS has outsold it's predecessor in the same timeframe and has broken multiple sales records across the globe and you say that means that the handheld gaming market is in decline. Ok then! Whatever you say...

The Vita has barely even started in Japan. While the 3DS will probably win the war in Japan quite handidly (given that it has basically every single major 3rd party franchise lined up for it and its momentum appears unstoppable), its success in the US is not dependant on its success, or lack thereof in Japan. COD Vita could well take off for all we know and become the Monster Hunter of the west for handhelds.

It's far too early to make such outlandish predictions about it's lifetime potential. It hasn't even launched here FFS!

The only thing that can be said for certain is that the price absolutely will not drop any time soon. Sony are losing money on each device and are not in a financial position where they can afford to do this for too long, so forget about any kind of price drop.

 

[lopaz]

Analysts have been calling doom for the portable market in favour of mobile phone games as long as I can remember. It never happens because mobile phone games suck ass

 

[GDGF]

PS Morte confirmed

You're the one who coined that.

Nice!

 

[Donthizz#]

its just poor advertising!!

 

[Satchel]

This shows you know jack shit about Vita. With Vita, from early on they are offering all kinds of content from cheap iPhone-esque games to differently priced retail titles. The first years of PSP were mostly filled with PS2 ports & PS2 Lite like sequels, but even that phase didn't last forever. Nowadays PSP is pretty much one of the best handhelds ever.

They've also added plenty of things PS3 can't do and improved the OS, so instead of being a downgraded PS3, it's different and better in many regards.

I'm talking about the OS. I'm talking about games.

The Vita's biggest drawcards are PS3 ports. Deny it all you like, it is what it is. No one is buying minis.

They buy those for less on their iPhones and Android phones.

 

[Takao]

They see Angry Birds sales, the revenue, profits, compare them to handheld games and then come to the conclusion that handhelds are dead.

I'm not kidding.

But Angry Birds revenue is dwarfed by basically every major release on PSP and DS in terms of revenue...

These are crazy times we live in.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Damn iPhone! Sorry for the double post.

 

[Lonely1]

So it's going to be killed by a low budget, low spec tablet that barely plays games at all. Totally competing for the same audience here...

It plays Angry Birds, the only games that matters.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

First 3DS now Vita is doomed!

I really think Vita might actually be doomed, though. The closer the NA launch gets the more wary I get about my purchase. The poor JPN sales and these doom and gloom articles about the portable market certainly don't help reaffirm my pre-order.

 

[Warm Machine]

Just build a phone version of this thing. I don't get why they are not doing the obvious. The N-Gage was a decade ago and done poorly so the comparison doesn't hold anymore. People will buy a real Sony Playstation phone and they will pay this sort of a premium for it.

 

[bigtroyjon]

If there is one thing I have learned from all this fuckery, its that people claiming smartphones are killing handheld gaming are absolutely, positively, and vehemently against the notion that perhaps both branches of gaming (mobile, and dedicated handheld) can grow, succeed, and exist alongside one another, the same way handheld gaming and console gaming have.

I cant explain why, Ive always assumed it was Android and iOS fanboys just beating their drums, but for some fucking reason, they insist on it being a war, where one side has to die despite all evidence to the contrary.

Handheld hardware and software shipments have declined each of the last 4 years*, if you have any data or evidence to suggest that the dedicated handheld market isn't shrinking since smartphone apps went mainstream, I'd love to see it. (there has to be some right, "all the evidence to the contrary")

*pending 4Q shipments

 

[Medalion]

With previous PSP reputation, the Vita has quite an uphill battle

With Nintendo's portables, they've historically always been dominant so it's no surprise they eventually turned things around

 

[SeanR1221]

I've put 13 hours into Jetpack Joyride. A .99 iOS game. I can't justify spending 50.00 on a portable game anymore.

 

[TheFightingFish]

I can't really speak to the overall market trends that the article is predicting (I'm not an armchair analyst), but the thought that the Vita is far more likely to take a bit hit from the booming smartphone market as opposed to the 3DS seems like a pretty solid assumption to me. Vitas demographics skew olds and more affluent and seem quite a bit more likely to own smartphones already. That and lacking the real evergreen franchises for kids of Mario and Pokemon. Makes sense to me that the Vita could be getting set up for a pretty solid whacking.

 

[Lufiaddict]

I'll just leave this here.