For the 49ers to upset the Saints, all indications are they are going to have to get a fairly productive game from quarterback Alex Smith. While New Orleans gives up 4.9 yards per carry in the run game, that stat is misleading.
49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman said the yards per carry is a result of innocuous 30-yard runs by the opposition at the end of blowout Saints wins. Also, the Saints' run defense improved greatly in the second half of the season, when they smothered the likes of Michael Turner (39 yards), Chris Johnson (23 yards) and Adrian Peterson (60 yards).
Meanwhile the 49ers no longer possess the potent running attack that once saw Frank Gore rip off five straight games of 100 yards rushing or more. Gore hasn't reached the century mark since Nov. 6.
But the Saints do allow yards in the passing game. New Orleans led the league in allowing pass plays of 40 yards or more with 14. Not only that, the blitz-mad Saints might be playing right into what Smith does best, and that's beat pressure. Smith's passer rating against the blitz this year is 96.3, which trails only Aaron Rodgers (131.4) and Tom Brady (110.9). Eight of his 17 touchdown passes and only one of his five picks were against the blitz.
Behind Smith, the 49ers are actually offensively potent at home. They averaged nearly 30 points (29.9) at home, which is fourth highest in the league.
Like Brees, Smith takes advantage of checks at the line and the ability to change the offense in the serene surroundings of friendly Candlestick Park.
"Obviously crowd noise plays into that, especially on third down when you're trying to throw the ball on the road," Smith said. "Anywhere you go you're going to be dealing with crowd noise. So at home, to be able to use the cadence and be able to communicate a little easier, verbally obviously helps. I think that might play into it."
Conversely, only 18 of Brees' 46 touchdown passes have come on the road because much of what Brees does is make last-second adjustments before the snap, which, as Smith notes, are more difficult to make in loud stadiums.
It would therefore not be completely surprising if Smith out-passed Brees on Saturday and, in fact, that's what happened last year at Candlestick Park. Brees passed for 254 yards and two scores in the Saints 25-22 win, while Smith threw for 275 yards and no scores.
The difference? Smith threw damming interceptions.