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US PoliGAF 2012 | The Romney VeepStakes: Waiting for Chris Christie to Sing…

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Not to take PoliGAF's attention away from Sullivan's article (I'll comment on that in a moment), but what is PoliGAF's read on Massachusetts senate race? Who do you think is going to win?


Warren should win easily (9-15 points), but everyone on the left will act like it's a huge surprise and a big accomplishment.
 
LOL...the GOP will NEVER vote to move to a popular vote.
This is by far the biggest problem with the Constitution. It does the job of respecting minority rights a little too well, and as such the smallest and most conservative states are unlikely to give assent to changes that overwhelming majorities in more densely populated states might favor.
 
This is by far the biggest problem with the Constitution. It does the job of respecting minority rights a little too well, and as such the smallest and most conservative states are unlikely to give assent to changes that overwhelming majorities in more densely populated states might favor.

That's where the Senate is so fucked.
 
Warren should win easily (9-15 points), but everyone on the left will act like it's a huge surprise and a big accomplishment.

I think the reaction will depend on whether they hold the Senate or not. If they don't, the celebration will be relatively muted. If they hold it, she will be part of the reason why and confetti will fly.

Agree she should be considered the prohibitive favorite; Massachusetts in any presidential election cycle is deep blue, and this one in particular. Warren seems to be a strong candidate as well. Kos' head is going to explode when she wins.

it's sort of like america, except when you get sick, you don't have to go bankrupt or alternatively die or possibly both.

Sounds like Socialism!
 
Warren should win easily (9-15 points), but everyone on the left will act like it's a huge surprise and a big accomplishment.

Brown has a lot more money than her and Karl Rove's super PAC is going all out against her. So yeah, it'll be at least a decent accomplishment if she manages that.
 
LOL...the GOP will NEVER vote to move to a popular vote.
To be fair, republican support for using the popular vote versus the electoral college has increased in the last decade while democrat and independent support has dropped, albeit slightly.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150245/americans-swap-electoral-college-popular-vote.aspx

Anecdotally, I'm willing to bet that that the leadership of neither party wants to actually change it. It's a system that they have studied and can manipulate. Personally, I'm all for getting rid of it.

This is by far the biggest problem with the Constitution. It does the job of respecting minority rights a little too well, and as such the smallest and most conservative states are unlikely to give assent to changes that overwhelming majorities in more densely populated states might favor.

The greatest weakness is also its saving grace. The voice of the minority is important. If the prevailing wind becomes more conservative in the coming years then people with more liberal sensibilities will be grateful for these protections.

That's where the Senate is so fucked.
I'm not so sure it is, depending on how you look at it. The dominant idea is that the majority of the country is liberal leaning, yet the republicans control the House of Representatives, which is better aligned to the overall population than the Senate. If the had seats assigned like the House, what do you think the chances are that right now there would be republican majorities in both?
 
To be fair, republican support for using the popular vote versus the electoral college has increased in the last decade while democrat and independent support has dropped, albeit slightly.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150245/americans-swap-electoral-college-popular-vote.aspx

Anecdotally, I'm willing to bet that that the leadership of neither party wants to actually change it. It's a system that they have studied and can manipulate. Personally, I'm all for getting rid of it.

Interesting. I'd think Republicans wouldn't support such a change, since the dinky little states with extra votes seem to usually go red.

Edit:
Oh, oops, should've read the article. That's Republicans in general, not politicians.
 
1. Obama 81%
2. Huntsman 49%
3. Roemer 37%

Top 19% of US, top 39% of DC region.

Re: Bush's policy towards OBL, did he really "ignore" him, or just stop referring to him publicly? I always assumed there was an ongoing effort to locate and kill him, but they wanted to move the focus away from him because that was proving difficult. My conservative brother-in-law always liked to tell me that there was a high-ranking Pentagon official whose sole job was to carry around a refrigerated case and when Osama was killed, he was to cut off Bin Laden's head and carry it back to present it to Bush. Can you imagine?


It's a bit disingenuous to initiate a debate by calling the other side dumb. Not that I disagree with him, but this was obviously what was going to happen.
Editors usually choose titles for articles, and they're usually chosen to be dramatic. Think of them as thread titles and trolling for clicks.
 
Interesting. I'd think Republicans wouldn't support such a change, since the dinky little states with extra votes seem to usually go red.

Edit:
Oh, oops, should've read the article. That's Republicans in general, not politicians.

Yeah, I think the politicians are a whole other animal. For a lot of those guys the re-election campaign begins the day after the election ends. I think that democrat politicians say that they want to get rid of it, and have more vocally since what happened with Bush v. Gore. But I still bet when the rubber hits the road they won't get behind it.

I think that they need to get rid of congressional districts, too. Screw the bunch of gerrymandering fools.
 
Here's the cover to that issue of Newsweek

upght.jpg

'Why are politicians so dumb?' Would have been a better title.
 
He's calling everyone dumb in the article. On the left and right .

He's not calling anyone dumb. He's just calling their arguments wrongheaded or worse. I agree with it for the most part, but particularly for the left, there will always be an impossible to navigate tension between pressing for their agenda and supporting a President who is more prone to hear their interests.
 
There is only one side in US politics, the difference between the two parties is minuscule compared to what you see in the rest of the world.

Ok? Not sure what your point is. Changing the title of the article to politicians would not make sense since the article talks about all of Obama's critics, but just politicians. For instance, other journalists writing articles criticizing Obama.
 
What is a European welfare state?

This was already answered, but I just wanted to make a quick post on something that irks me.

I'm really appalled at the disdain for Europe that many Americans seem to have. I'm not sure if it's because of lingering "We saved their asses from the Nazis/Soviets" sentiments, or if there's some other reason, but lots of Americans seem to have this conception of Europe that is not even close to accurate.
 
I just can't take Sullivan seriously about Obama. Sullivan's been on his dick since it became clear Obama could defeat the (for Sullivan) hated hell-beast Hillary.
 
My numbers:
79% Obama
49% Huntsman
40% Roemer/Johnson (campaign finance reform would put Roemer over Johnson IRL)

Exactly right.

My percentile:
Top 8% of United States
Top 4% of AZ Outside Metro
 
The greatest weakness is also its saving grace. The voice of the minority is important. If the prevailing wind becomes more conservative in the coming years then people with more liberal sensibilities will be grateful for these protections.

I'm not so sure it is, depending on how you look at it. The dominant idea is that the majority of the country is liberal leaning, yet the republicans control the House of Representatives, which is better aligned to the overall population than the Senate. If the had seats assigned like the House, what do you think the chances are that right now there would be republican majorities in both?
I'm not really sure where you got this. It's clear that significant numbers of people identify as conservative--whether the ideals they hold are consistent with that self-identification is different discussion. And while I think protecting minority rights is important, the idea that Wyoming and New York should enjoy equal representation is untenably undemocratic. What we need to do is expand the House of Representatives. Dramatically.
 
Brad Plumer is up with an article on the latest happenings of SOPA and PIPA. Conclusion: massive back-pedaling is going on. I anticipate Reid's going to call off the vote for PIPA sometime this week.

On the two bills, he has two other articles up that go detail if online piracy is a problem and what the bills do.

@Dude Abides, one of the articles, I think, gives you a more comprehensive look at PIPA vs. SOPA, as you asked for in that other thread.
 
I'm not really sure where you got this. It's clear that significant numbers of people identify as conservative--whether the ideals they hold are consistent with that self-identification is different discussion. And while I think protecting minority rights is important, the idea that Wyoming and New York should enjoy equal representation is untenably undemocratic. What we need to do is expand the House of Representatives. Dramatically.

Yeah. In this country, thankfully only ~20% of people identify themselves as liberals. Conservatives are >40% and moderates are the remaining 35-40%.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/148745/political-ideology-stable-conservatives-leading.aspx
 
To be fair, republican support for using the popular vote versus the electoral college has increased in the last decade while democrat and independent support has dropped, albeit slightly.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150245/americans-swap-electoral-college-popular-vote.aspx

Anecdotally, I'm willing to bet that that the leadership of neither party wants to actually change it. It's a system that they have studied and can manipulate. Personally, I'm all for getting rid of it.

Thanks for posting the numbers. I'm really shocked a majority of republican voters favor it.

Took the % test--I'm in the bottom 39% of my area. Teacher salary + 1-income household = meh.
 
Turnout doesn't equal demographics.

Way to miss the point.

If the 18-29 age bracket shows up and votes at roughly the same % as it did in 2000, you'll have roughly double the number of raw votes from that bracket, due to the size of that bracket being so large today in comparison.
 
This was already answered, but I just wanted to make a quick post on something that irks me.

I'm really appalled at the disdain for Europe that many Americans seem to have. I'm not sure if it's because of lingering "We saved their asses from the Nazis/Soviets" sentiments, or if there's some other reason, but lots of Americans seem to have this conception of Europe that is not even close to accurate.

There is no "real" disdain for Europe, just like there's no real disdain for PBS, at least among the average person. Associating Obama with foreigners is just something the GOP loves to do because it feeds into the narrative that he's not one of us.
 
Way to miss the point.

If the 18-29 age bracket shows up and votes at roughly the same % as it did in 2000, you'll have roughly double the number of raw votes from that bracket, due to the size of that bracket being so large today in comparison.

So did you apparently. That's turnout, not demographics. Assuming same turnout in 2012 as 2008 is pretty dubious.
There is no "real" disdain for Europe, just like there's no real disdain for PBS, at least among the average person. Associating Obama with foreigners is just something the GOP loves to do because it feeds into the narrative that he's not one of us.

It really has nothing to do with Obama. Kerry was derided over and over in 2004 for being "french looking", "european", all the old code words. Associating democrats with european policies (or bad characterizations of those policies) has been a republican drumbeat for decades.
 
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