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[Amir0x]

I don't think it needs to be a collapse, the economy could simply slide back into negative territory for a few months before the election. This nation voted for Bush after Iraq and were even convinced by the swift boating stuff. This nation has conservative insticts and Newt is a crafty guy and knows how to push buttons. I'm not saying he is a great candidate but I don't really see this being a landslide for Obama. Numbers can change given the right conditions, have we really had enough presidential elections that we can read much into these numbers? I'm never convinced by them and it is a political eternity between now and November.

It's true looking at match up polling this early is a crapshoot, but more important is unfavorability ratings. Newt has just pathetic ratings all around. It is essentially factual unelectable ratings. And they're almost certain to not change much, this is the same unfavorability ratings Newt has had for fifteen years. People know his record, know who he is and what he stands for... and hate him for it. His record is embarrassing.

If Newt gets the nom, then Repubs must hope for Eurozone collapse.

 

[hydragonwarrior]

Hm, then I wonder what Newt will have to do to guarantee a win in Florida? He has to unearth some otherworldly shit about Romney to do well there.

 

[Miletius]

Hm, then I wonder what Newt will have to do to guarantee a win in Florida? He has to unearth some otherworldly shit about Romney to do well there.

Newt needs to highlight Romney's recent gaffes and capitalize on them. Keeping the pressure on Romney and not allowing him to regain momentum, while setting himself up for a win/close 2nd in Florida. Also, further talk positioning him as the conservative alternative to Mittens would help.

 

[Black Republican]

whats the most state more likely to swing for Ron Paul?

 

[thefit]

I don't know if I should laugh or cry after these results.

You should laugh while you cry for SC. Newts southern strategy dog whistle shit and victimhood politics worked out great in SC but SC ain't the rest of the country thank god.

whats the most state more likely to swing for Ron Paul?

Arizona

 

[Karma Kramer]

Doesn't it seem like the earlier primary states are generally more red states then blue states or is this just my imagination?

 

[Al-ibn Kermit]

From twitter:


Mike Monteiro (@Mike_FTW)
1/21/12 9:21 PM
Rick Santorum launches Conservatives Unite Moneybomb (CUM). I am not making this up. ricksantorum.com/unite/

Do you think the CUM is a long shot?

 

[markatisu]

You should laugh while you cry for SC. Newts southern strategy dog whistle shit and victimhood politics worked out great in SC but SC ain't the rest of the country thank god.

Arizona

Yeah but SC showed Gingrinch how to get to Romney the Robot, a few more disastrous debate performances like this past week and it won't matter.

This nomination is Romney's to lose, the fact he has not cakewalked already should be troubling to those hoping he can win the White House.

 

[AlteredBeast]

South Carolina is amazingly stupid. Like, worse than Iowa stupid.

Newt Gingrich? Really?!!? Can the Romney and Santorum camps really be that incompetent that they can't even message Newt back to whatever hole he climbed out of? Dude sold his soul to the devil to become relevant again.

If Newt gets the nomination, its third party vote time, for me. Never thought I would have a legitimate protest vote, but there you go.

 

[speculawyer]

Can Newt even win at this point? His barred from the Virginia ballot (his home state, D'oh!) and some other states.

 

[thefit]

Yeah but SC showed Gingrinch how to get to Romney the Robot, a few more disastrous debate performances like this past week and it won't matter.

This nomination is Romney's to lose, the fact he has not cakewalked already should be troubling to those hoping he can win the White House.

Oh I'm not saying stop, in fact I'm loving this. Newt is such a maniacal vengeful narcissist that I really don't think he gives a shit if he ever becomes president what matters to him is that he gets to ride in the front of the plane even if that plane is on a fiery head first decent.

 

[Clevinger]

Newt Gingrich? Really?!!? Can the Romney and Santorum camps really be that incompetent that they can't even message Newt back to whatever hole he climbed out of?

Well, Romney tried. I believe he and his PACs spent over twice as much as Gingrich in SC.

 

[NihonTiger90]

Can Newt even win at this point? His barred from the Virginia ballot (his home state, D'oh!) and some other states.

Not unless Romney stumbles badly or implodes.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Can Newt even win at this point? His barred from the Virginia ballot (his home state, D'oh!) and some other states.

He can win, but the Romney camp is much better organized. I think after Newt's terrible Iowa performance, and seeing that he was going to get almost no traction in NH, he put all of his eggs into SC. He is going to get a good nationwide bump because of it, but he doesn't have the organization to get to every state and press the flesh like Romney. Being off the ballot in a couple states won't hurt as bad as not having tens of millions of dollars, come Super Tuesday. This is all barring Romney making some terrible mistake, of course.

Repubs better pray that they can sort their defenses out by Super Tuesday or they are screwed, much less the GE. I can't remember what question was asked of Romney on Thursday, but the fact that he couldn't answer quickly and effectively speaks volumes to a lack of preparation, debating skill, and inability to lie through his teeth as effectively as Gingrich.

Newt stood up and straight up insinuated that his two daughters from another marriage would somehow know the intimate details of what went on in the bedroom between him and his second wife and people lapped it up because he said it with passion and confidence. Romney can't even deflect a question about his massive wealth, offshore bank accounts, or various positions without getting flustered. Perhaps there is an honest bone left in that body of his, while Newt's has long been replaced by whatever they are injecting into his wife's face.

 

[apana]

Can Newt even win at this point? His barred from the Virginia ballot (his home state, D'oh!) and some other states.

From a delegate perspective, yes. I'd still give odds to Mitt to win this thing but it gets harder for him everyday since he can't get the voters to rally behind him. If Santorum deteriorates even more and conservatives do see Newt as the alternative he has got a good chance.

 

[Ecotic]

Newt can win because the Not-Romney vote is much larger than the 25% Romney can consistently pull in. All that stands in Newt's way is Santorum splitting the vote, an organizational inefficiency, or a killer gaffe or string of bad weeks. But he could easily sweep the South as the contest rolls on.

Much depends on Florida in 10 days though. A win for either Romney or Gingrich makes them the near prohibitive favorite.

 

[The Chosen One]

I just wanted to add another "Holy Sh@!" at the Newt spread. I knew he was surging but he literally had a 25 point swing in 7 days.

Newt is a villainous slug but I enjoy watching him debate. He's quick on his feet and intelligent unlike the rest of the jokers in the Republican field. Some people think Romney is intelligent, but he's not. Mittens is simply a well-programmed robot. He can't function outside is original programming, which is why he becomes a stammering mess when faced with tough direct questions.

I debate between Mittens and Obama would be boring because both would just keep reciting campaign talking points. But a Newt and Obama debate would be extremely interesting because Newt would push Obama to bring his "A" game. And of course there's the added benefit of Newt standing a 0% chance against Obama in a general election. So we would get entertaining debates while knowing the country will still stay in safe hands after election day.

 

[GhaleonEB]

He can win, but the Romney camp is much better organized. I think after Newt's terrible Iowa performance, and seeing that he was going to get almost no traction in NH, he put all of his eggs into SC. He is going to get a good nationwide bump because of it, but he doesn't have the organization to get to every state and press the flesh like Romney.

Thing is, I think that matters less and less these days. These days, states seem much more susceptible to national swings. Gallup's tracker has had Romney's lead over Newt swing from a 23 point lead to 8 in the same one-week time frame as Newt's SC surge, and that's a 5-day rolling average; his national movement was probably close to the swing we saw in SC. We saw in Iowa what carpet bombing the state with SuperPAC money did, and now we've seen what a few debates can do on top of it. So while I think Romney's money and better organizing are pluses for him, I don't think Newt is as disadvantaged as he would have been in past cycles. He can ride the national wave to state victories.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Romney, the Texas Rangers of the political world.

 

[Majine]

From someone who hasn't really payed attention to the election, Is there anywhere I can see all the candidates political compasses?

 

[ErasureAcer]

From someone who hasn't really payed attention to the election, Is there anywhere I can see all the candidates political compasses?

They all point to hell.

 

[kehs]

From someone who hasn't really payed attention to the election, Is there anywhere I can see all the candidates political compasses?

$$
/\
||

 

[Clevinger]

You know what would be the most amazing thing? If Gingrich gets Santorum to drop out and endorse him because Gingrich promises to pick him as VP. The Not-Romney vote gets unified behind the Grinch and he wins the nom. Can you imagine that general election with those two idiots on one ticket? Oh, lord.

 

[Majine]

Oh hey, I love money too!

I guess the crude version is: Are all the republican candidates christian nuts that wants to ban gay marriage etc. ?

 

[sc0la]

Oh hey, I love money too!

I guess the crude version is: Are all the republican candidates christian nuts that wants to ban gay marriage etc. ?

Nope.

Spoiler

There are Mormon and Catholic nuts too!

 

[Clevinger]

Oh hey, I love money too!

I guess the crude version is: Are all the republican candidates christian nuts that wants to ban gay marriage etc. ?

No. Gingrich and Santorum are the only ones who'd actively want to ban gay marriage. Romney might if the legislation went across his desk -- he'd sign probably anything a Republican congress would give him -- but he wouldn't actively pursue it.

 

[kehs]

I can't wait to see all these anti-gay marriage politicians do a 180 when they realize the exploitation value is less than the support value.

 

[speculawyer]

You know what would be the most amazing thing? If Gingrich gets Santorum to drop out and endorse him because Gingrich promises to pick him as VP. The Not-Romney vote gets unified behind the Grinch and he wins the nom. Can you imagine that general election with those two idiots on one ticket? Oh, lord.

That would be hysterical. Obama would not really need to campaign.

 

[Tieno]

I just wanted to add another "Holy Sh@!" at the Newt spread. I knew he was surging but he literally had a 25 point swing in 7 days.

Newt is a villainous slug but I enjoy watching him debate. He's quick on his feet and intelligent unlike the rest of the jokers in the Republican field. Some people think Romney is intelligent, but he's not. Mittens is simply a well-programmed robot. He can't function outside is original programming, which is why he becomes a stammering mess when faced with tough direct questions.

I debate between Mittens and Obama would be boring because both would just keep reciting campaign talking points. But a Newt and Obama debate would be extremely interesting because Newt would push Obama to bring his "A" game. And of course there's the added benefit of Newt standing a 0% chance against Obama in a general election. So we would get entertaining debates while knowing the country will still stay in safe hands after election day.

I'm European so I'm not that familiar with this. Why is this?

 

[Volimar]

I'm European so I'm not that familiar with this. Why is this?

In the US, we have two major parties, but a large number of Americans are either centrist or independents. If someone as conservative as Newt ran, he'd get the conservative vote, but the moderate repubs and independents would be turned off because he doesn't really have anything to offer them. He's also pretty slimy and a lot of independents would actually prefer Obama to a President Gingrich and so people that might have voted otherwise or (more likely) stayed home on election day would be motivated to actually stand against Newt rather than stand for Obama.

 

[KingK]

Ok, so I've just spent some time watching some videos of Obama/Hillary debating in the 2008 primaries, and holy shit is it night and day compared to these Republican bouts of verbal diarrhea. Obama and Hillary actually spent a lot of time going back and forth discussing specific policies and differences between each others plans on health care and such (that's right, they actually had plans and policy created that they could debate about).

 

[Clevinger]

I'm European so I'm not that familiar with this. Why is this?

Because independents/undecideds/centrists decide presidential elections here. Someone like Newt, who's cheated on two (likely three) of his wives, is incredibly arrogant and generally unlikeable, ended his congressional career hated by everyone while being charged for ethics violations, constantly spouts hateful or racist or vitriolic or partisan rhetoric etc.

He's basically everything that those voters do not want. They'll run for the hills/Obama.

 

[Black Republican]

Lawrence really doesnt like Ron Paul

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3AaO5BVCbI

 

[mj1108]

Ok, so I've just spent some time watching some videos of Obama/Hillary debating in the 2008 primaries, and holy shit is it night and day compared to these Republican bouts of verbal diarrhea. Obama and Hillary actually spent a lot of time going back and forth discussing specific policies and differences between each others plans on health care and such (that's right, they actually had plans and policy created that they could debate about).

All the Republicans can say in these debates is:

1) We must get Obama out of office.
2) CUT TAXES! CUT TAXES! CUT TAXES!

They have nothing of substance to say and have absolutely no real plan on how to handle anything.

 

[Majine]

So who should I cheer for (I'm not american so can't vote) if this is me:

 

[Puddles]

So who should I cheer for (I'm not american so can't vote) if this is me:

Obama.

 

[Volimar]

Lawrence really doesnt like Ron Paul

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3AaO5BVCbI

Rachel Maddow's brain is so sexy.

 

[KingK]

So who should I cheer for (I'm not american so can't vote) if this is me:

Obama. All US politicians (barring a handful of exceptions) are in that upper right blue quadrant. Obama is just closer to the origin.

All the Republicans can say in these debates is:

1) We must get Obama out of office.
2) CUT TAXES! CUT TAXES! CUT TAXES!

They have nothing of substance to say and have absolutely no real plan on how to handle anything.

Yeah, I always knew that. It's just, looking at those old Obama/Hillary debates really put it into perspective just how crazy and devoid of substance the Republican party is compared to the Democrats. For as much flack as the Democratic party (rightfully) receives from a lot of liberals, it's important to realize that they are leagues better than any viable alternative.

 

[Black Republican]

So who should I cheer for (I'm not american so can't vote) if this is me:

socialist with a dash of appeasement!

 

[Majine]

Obama. All US politicians (barring a handful of exceptions) are in that upper right blue quadrant. Obama is just closer to the origin.

Ah thanks! Kinda suspected it, but nice to hear it for real.

 

[Thoraxes]

There was some kind of poll on ABC earlier today, and apparently the number one voted on priority in there wasn't the issues our country faces, but to just get Obama out of office.

 

[Evlar]

Hahaha oh my. Was out with friends this evening, just saw the news.

As a Florida resident with many Republican friends and neighbors this ought to be an entertaining week.

 

[Clevinger]

As a Florida resident with many Republican friends and neighbors this ought to be an entertaining week.

You should tell them all to vote Gingrich. He's the only one who can beat Obama

Spoiler

in debates.

 

[thatbox]

Wow. This is going to continue to be entertaining!

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

Newt has built a momentum that is hard to stop now. This might end up like Kerry/Dean race where won a state or 2, gained momentum and become impossible to stop. So my guess is if Newt wins next state he will win the nomination.

 

[jamesinclair]

I've been trying to tell you folks for Weeks,

Romney may be the perfect republican but he's everything the tea party hates.

He's a wall street fat cat.
He has nothing in common with main street.
He wants wars.
He's establishment.
He's a career politician.

He doesn't believe in jeeeeerbs

The tea party may not have lined up behind Palin or Michelle, because contrary to what gaf thinks, tea party doesn't necessarily mean idiot.

But they absolutely won't vote for the man that is the epitome of everything they stood around protesting about.

The gop is at war with itself right now. This isn't Obama vs Hillary where the voters were picking who they liked best, its about beating the guy they hate.

If newt drops out, he sure as hell isn't endorsing Romney, he's doing everything he can to destroy him, and its personal. The voters won't fall in line either. Same is opposite. And same with Ron Paul, he won't endorse anyone else, and his viewers won't go to the polls.

And once last thing, the gop has always been a giant asshole to rp. Always. This year they Drew a map that would end his career. Do toy think that rp wouldn't run as third party just to send a giant fuck you?

Also, phone Neogaf sucks

 

[thatbox]

If the GOP starts taking all of its marching orders from the tea party wing instead of just half they'll be in even worse shape for the next ten years than any of us thought.

 

[GoutPatrol]

So who should I cheer for (I'm not american so can't vote) if this is me:

Stewart Alexander.

 

[Salvor.Hardin]

If Newt gets the nom, then Repubs must hope for Eurozone collapse.

Not even that could help him. He is the definition of unelectable. Not that I think he's even capable of getting the nomination, but there are far too many establishment politicians who would do anything not to see the day when Gingrich is in the top office.

 

[Black Republican]

i guess that ABC interview with Marianne Gingrich is to be forever forgotten after Newt's big win, has anyone even watched the whole thing? lol