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[TestOfTide]

I'd love to hear the reasoning behind this.

When they imagine their generic repubican, they aren't imagining romney or gingrich.

 

[Learn2read]

Edit: What's a Swiss bank account?

A miserable pile of secrets

 

[The Librarian]

A Democratic Congress? Hardly. The Dems had a 59-41 minority in the Senate.

And the number of conservative Democrats weren't going to vote for something like that after getting pounded from the midterms. I don't know why people hate on the deal, or somehow think Obama won't let them expire when they come up again. He has said repeatedly that no matter what hostage the GOP takes, he's going to let them lapse. Obama got a good chunk of economic stimulus from it, and if it gets extended for another year, dollar for dollar, that's almost a 4:1 ratio of stimulus to tax cuts.

Looking back, I would've taken the tax cut deal back in December of 2010. Absolutism is largely counterproductive in American politics. He got unemployment insurance extended for a year out of the deal. I can only imagine the argument to someone who was relying on that money to help feed themselves and/or their kids: "Okay, so you barely have enough money to feed yourself and/or your kids now, but, hey, we raised taxes on the rich!"

Extending some tax cuts in return for some much-needed stimulus? Why wouldn't I take that deal?

 

[Cloudy]

Lmao I think having Buffet's secretary at the SOTU is a bit over the top.

Obviously in the age of OWS this tax rate thing is a winner for Dems (while simultaneously causing problems for Mitt) and I get that they want it to be a big story but have the WH staff ever heard of subtlety? Lol

I guess they feel they can shame the GOP into tax hikes for the rich. Not bloody likely IMO

Mitt timed this release thinking the SOTU would overshadow it but I think he made a mistake

 

[J.ceaz]

Romney speaking in front of HUGE "OBAMA ISN"T WORKING" banner. Way to lay it on thick Mitt.

 

[dave is ok]

Mitt timed this release thinking the SOTU would overshadow it but I think he made a mistake

A Mitt-stake, if you will.

Newt is going to hammer him on the 500k he has invested in Fannie/Freddie, everyone is going to hammer him on the 13.9% rate and the Cayman/Swiss accounts and they might even give him shit about his tithing. Mitt is really fucked. If he wins Florida, it won't be by much.

 

[The Librarian]

A Mitt-stake, if you will.

Newt is going to hammer him on the 500k he has invested in Fannie/Freddie, everyone is going to hammer him on the 13.9% rate and the Cayman/Swiss accounts and they might even give him shit about his tithing. Mitt is really fucked. If he wins Florida, it won't be by much.

I think the longer the GOP primary plays out the more unelectable either become. Mitt's unfavorables are rapidly on the rise. Jonathan Chait has more on this.

 

[RustyNails]

Lmao I think having Buffet's secretary at the SOTU is a bit over the top.

I think he's gonna make a reference to her.

 

[Lambtron]

And the number of conservative Democrats weren't going to vote for something like that after getting pounded from the midterms. I don't know why people hate on the deal, or somehow think Obama won't let them expire when they come up again. He has said repeatedly that no matter what hostage the GOP takes, he's going to let them lapse. Obama got a good chunk of economic stimulus from it, and if it gets extended for another year, dollar for dollar, that's almost a 4:1 ratio of stimulus to tax cuts.

Looking back, I would've taken the tax cut deal back in December of 2010. Absolutism is largely counterproductive in American politics. He got unemployment insurance extended for a year out of the deal. I can only imagine the argument to someone who was relying on that money to help feed themselves and/or their kids: "Okay, so you barely have enough money to feed yourself and/or your kids now, but, hey, we raised taxes on the rich!"

Extending some tax cuts in return for some much-needed stimulus? Why wouldn't I take that deal?

I was fine with the deal in 2010, but I think if they hadn't kicked the can down the road on the Bush tax cuts, the Republicans couldn't have even taken a hostage, you know?

Really, the biggest problem is that the tax brackets were not written with the idea of $20,000,000 annual executive salaries and such. There needs to be additional brackets at the top for the ultra rich, with much higher tax rates. There's an enormous gulf between $375,000 annually, a million annually, and ten million annually. Capital gains should be taxed separately & progressively, using the same tax brackets.

 

[Cloudy]

I think he's gonna make a reference to her.

He will reference the Buffet rule but she doesn't need to be there lol

 

[empty vessel]

Edit: But that is a chart showing only the returns with capital gains.
Only ~15% of all returns have capital gains.

Not only that, it just reflects raw numbers of returns with capital gains. 12.8% of all returns showing capital gains may have been filed by people making over $200k, but this group represents much less than 12.8% of the population. Moreover, it doesn't account for the amount of capital gains claimed, which is what really matters. It may be that 38% of all returns with capital gains are filed by people who make less than 50k, but the amount of capital gains they have will be utterly paltry compared to the >200k group.

So this chart conveys little to no relevant information. It just isn't very insightful.

 

[GhaleonEB]

A Democratic Congress? Hardly. The Dems had a 59-41 minority in the Senate.

I agree with the sentiment, but they had 60-40 for a little while (that's why the healthcare bill passed), and could have easily passed the repeal via reconciliation in the Senate.

Not only that, it just reflects raw numbers of returns with capital gains. 12.8% of all returns showing capital gains may have been filed by people making over $200k, but this group represents much less than 12.8% of the population. Moreover, it doesn't account for the amount of capital gains claimed, which is what really matters. It may be that 38% of all returns with capital gains are filed by people who make less than 50k, but the amount of capital gains they have will be utterly paltry compared to the >200k group.

So this chart conveys little to no relevant information. It just isn't very insightful.

Indeed. I have capital gains taxes each year, because my mutual funds kick out a capital gains dividend at the end of the year. Very small dollars, yet I'd be counted on that chart the same as someone who had millions.

 

[Lambtron]

I agree with the sentiment, but they had 60-40 for a little while (that's why the healthcare bill passed), and could have easily passed the repeal via reconciliation in the Senate.

I'm mostly chiding the Democrats when I make this statement. They absolutely could have pushed this stuff through reconciliation, or other means, but they just didn't have the guts to do so. If the Republicans want to fillibuster, make them fillibuster. Show the country how they're blocking it, instead of just acting ineffective.

Also, didn't the Healthcare bill pass after Scott Brown got elected? I remember them negotiating away the public option and other important bits to get one Republican vote for "bipartisan support."

 

[Invisible_Insane]

ABC/Post poll now has Romney's favorables with independents at 23/51, Gingrich's at 22/53.

So about that crow...

 

[ezekial45]

So about that crow...

Wow, that's not good for them.

 

[RustyNails]

So about that crow...

And Obama's numbers are:

Obama’s numbers in this poll, conducted Wednesday through Sunday, have tilted positive, both among all Americans (53 percent favorable) and among independents (51 percent favorable). The president’s favorability rating had, for the first time, dipped below the 50-percent mark last fall.

In a separate Post-ABC poll released last week, the president kicked off the year with a job approval rating of 48 percent, a bit of a recovery, but still below his recent predecessors at the start of their reelection years.

The new poll shows moderates now giving Obama a better-than-2-to-1 split, with 66 percent expressing favorable views and 31 percent unfavorable. Those are his best numbers in periodic polls back to April 2010.

 

[Plinko]

So about that crow...

Great news for Obama. 22/53 for Gingrich is laughable. I had asked for an updated poll like this earlier in the thread--glad to see it.

Obama's marketing during the campaign should be directed at independents and getting them out to vote. He's GOT to influence them to do so.

As for Romney, his tax issue has to be the reason for the tumble among independents, no?

One group that continues to elude Obama in his moderate resurgence on favorability is whites with annual household incomes under $50,000. Since December, whites with higher incomes are up eight points in favorable impressions of the president; those under the $50K threshold are basically unmoved at 40 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable.

Interesting. Not sure why households with under $50,000 income don't like him.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'm mostly chiding the Democrats when I make this statement. They absolutely could have pushed this stuff through reconciliation, or other means, but they just didn't have the guts to do so. If the Republicans want to fillibuster, make them fillibuster. Show the country how they're blocking it, instead of just acting ineffective.

Also, didn't the Healthcare bill pass after Scott Brown got elected? I remember them negotiating away the public option and other important bits to get one Republican vote for "bipartisan support."

Prior to Brown's election, it passed the House and then the Senate 60-40 along party lines. Brown was elected while the House and Senate were in conference committee. Brown promised to join the GOP filibuster of the final confernece report. So, the House passed the Senate bill (since the Senate was shutdown with the 59-41 Dem minority), and they used reconciliation to pass some of the changes the House Dems wanted, as an amendment to the Senate bill.

The whole thing just highlighted how batshit insane the Senate is, and the filibuster in particular. I think (and hope) its days are numbered.

 

[ezekial45]

And Obama's numbers are:

I'm more than certain that it'll rise once the presidential election comes up. If things are already looking bad for them with independents, then it'll be interesting to see how much further it'll drop once he's in full on campaign mode.

As long as the economy keeps improving, and more jobs are getting added, then November is gonna be good for Obama.

 

[RustyNails]

Interesting. Not sure why households with under $50,000 income don't like him.

They don't like Romney either.

I'm more than certain that it'll rise once the presidential election comes up. If things are already looking bad for them with independents, then it'll be interesting to see how much further it'll drop once he's in full on campaign mode.

As long as the economy keeps improving, and more jobs are getting added, then November is gonna be good for Obama.

His numbers are getting boost. Romnewt's loss is Obama's gain.

 

[The Librarian]

I agree with the sentiment, but they had 60-40 for a little while (that's why the healthcare bill passed), and could have easily passed the repeal via reconciliation in the Senate.

That's not what I'm finding. Dems couldn't use reconciliation to only extend the tax cuts for the middle class because it wasn't written into the 2010 budget, because Dems opted against passing a budget resolution for fiscal year of 2011 (Blue Dog objectives, McConnell wasn't in the mood to negotiate), and Dems weren't happy with the GOP using reconciliation to pass tax cuts, so they changed the rules so that tax cuts cannoy be passed through a simple majority.

All of that from here.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

Great news for Obama. 22/53 for Gingrich is laughable. I had asked for an updated poll like this earlier in the thread--glad to see it.

Obama's marketing during the campaign should be directed at independents and getting them out to vote. He's GOT to influence them to do so.

As for Romney, his tax issue has to be the reason for the tumble among independents, no?

I'm not sure that it's as laughable for Gingrich as it is dangerous for Romney, who's basically at the same level. Independents probably won't have much to do with Republican primary, but it looks as if Romney could be as doomed as Gingrich in the general if he's viewed that negatively by independents.

Interesting. Not sure why households with under $50,000 income don't like him.

I don't think Obama being somewhat unpopular among working class/poor whites is new.

 

[popeutlal]

Holy hell at Romeny's tax return, earning money doing nothing sounds great. Earning 45 million while doing nothing sounds even better. Earning that amount in two years while doing nothing sounds incredible.

 

[GhaleonEB]

That's not what I'm finding. Dems couldn't use reconciliation to only extend the tax cuts for the middle class because it wasn't written into the 2010 budget, because Dems opted against passing a budget resolution for fiscal year of 2011 (Blue Dog objectives, McConnell wasn't in the mood to negotiate), and Dems weren't happy with the GOP using reconciliation to pass tax cuts, so they changed the rules so that tax cuts cannoy be passed through a simple majority.

All of that from here.

I think you're right. I was confusing the way Dems updated the PayGo rules to excempt the effect of the tax cuts with reconciliation. Since all tax cuts expired, they would have had to pass just the extension of the lower income portion, which did not qualify for reconciliation rules.

I tuned out for a year and forgot a lot of the details over the span. Gettin' rusty.

None the less, my point stands about their window to pass the policy via normal rules.

 

[Aaron Strife]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/poll-finds-voters-wary-of-congressional-gop-20120123

Forty-eight percent of voters would rather see Obama reelected next year, compared to 40 percent who would prefer that a Republican win the presidency; a combined 12 percent of voters said they would prefer neither scenario or are undecided. A Congressional Connection Poll conducted in late October found voters split, with 44 percent preferring the GOP candidate and 42 percent favoring Obama’s reelection.

A plurality of voters, 48 percent, now say they would prefer that Democrats win enough seats take control of the House, compared with 37 percent who would rather see Republicans maintain control. In late October, the two parties were virtually tied on that question, with Democrats holding a statistically insignificant 2-point advantage.

bang boom bippity bop

So about that crow...

The cool thing is that their numbers are close enough that even if Romney won the primary, he'd still be damaged goods.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

It's unstable, and mankind is easily blinded by power and hate. Iran could easily do something stupid to spark conflict.

I can't imagine how this region is going to survive, if Egypt government goes south things could get really ugly. I mean the Arab League is a joke, just look at Syria. They could easily turn on CNN and see whats going on, but no they sent in observers, and more observers, and are dragging their heels. When they finally decide to do something, chances are they won't act on it or stop them at all.

The region will survive as it has survived up to this point. A state of continual upheld, trying to find its identity, using oil as a way to stay relevant. Regarding the Arab League, what do you want the countries to do? Go send in troops? That isn't going to happen. It will take NATO to do that. The Arab League being irrelevant doesn't mean we should go and attack Iran.

The later is an if Iran gets a Nuclear Weapon scenario. Besides, chances are they would find a way to sneak it into the country, they wouldn't launch it.
The point is they aren't stable, they are violent, indirectly kill United States soldiers.

Not to mention it's logical to point out that if Iran gets nuclear weapons, other areas and countries around them will build, or get more nuclear weapons themselves out of fear, escalating things in the region.

Also none of this "mutually assured destruction". How is that a valid argument? That is some scary stuff.

You ACTUALLY believe Iran would pass a nuclear weapon over to a subgroup to blow it up inside of Israel or another country? Seriously, you need to stop watching 24 and believing it represents real life situations. It's quite likely that Iran has already had their hands in the killing of U.S. soldiers who were in Iraq. How come we haven't attacked Iran yet? OH yea, because it would be a stupid stupid move. Stop trusting in the people like John Bolton who if things were up to him, we'd be in deep shit.

 

[sc0la]

Obama had the chance to make people like Romney pay more in taxes, but he extended the Bush Tax cuts (and kept capital gains taxes at historically low levels).

Now, he's going to campaign on how rich people like Romney need to pay more? Yea right. He will just roll over again when the time comes.

Oh for sure. For the record I don't think the Bush tax cuts will ever "expire" regardless of who wins office.

Obama is likely going to extend them again in exchange for support on something else, then pivot to "comprehensive tax reform" as an issue for the first year of his second term.

 

[Gary Whitta]

Romney speaking in front of HUGE "OBAMA ISN"T WORKING" banner. Way to lay it on thick Mitt.

No doubt borrowed from one of the most successful political ads in history:

 

[ezekial45]

I just found out that Herman Cain is delivering the tea party response to the SOTU address. That should be hilarious.

 

[el retorno]

I just found out that Herman Cain is delivering the tea party response to the SOTU address. That should be hilarious.

Whose giving the GOP?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Romney leads in FL in latest poll

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/updates/4598?ref=fpblg

The back and forth is starting the Sunshine State — former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads in a new snap poll of the Florida Republican primary audience from We Ask America, up on former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 34 – 32.

Granted, I am mostly just interested in PPP Numbers considering their awesome track record.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Whose giving the GOP?

Mitch Daniels.

 

[The Librarian]

I wonder how that self-deportation line from Mittens is playing in the Hispanic community in Florida.

 

[Narpas Sword0]

What's the best way to watch the SOTU live on an iPad?

 

[EternalGamer]

I just found out that Herman Cain is delivering the tea party response to the SOTU address. That should be hilarious.

This is the best news all week. This absolutely ridiculous man made me love politics again.

 

[EternalGamer]

Mitch Daniels.

Damn. I was hoping for Mitch the Tortoise.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

I wonder how that self-deportation line from Mittens is playing in the Hispanic community in Florida.

What % of the Hispanic population in FL are Republicans? I don't think that's who they're trying to appeal in FL.

 

[The Librarian]

What % of the Hispanic population in FL are Republicans? I don't think that's who they're trying to appeal in FL.

They were 12% in the 2008 primary, and Romney lost them to McCain 54-14. I don't think he did himself any favors with that line.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

So in other words, it doesn't really matter. Especially when looking at the questionnaire.

McCain took a more moderate approach to immigration reform (since he worked with Ted Kennedy). I don't think Santorum or Gingrich have a moderate plan like McCain did. Or Gingrich does, I haven't followed his position on immigration reform.

 

[kehs]

What's the best way to watch the SOTU live on an iPad?

They're gonna be streaming it from http://wh.gov/sotu as well as http://www.youtube.com/whitehouse.

There actually taking questions right now at the youtube link for the G+ hangout later in the week.

 

[The Librarian]

So in other words, it doesn't really matter. Especially when looking at the questionnaire.

How does them being 12% of the vote make it so "they don't really matter"? If Romney loses that badly to Gingrich this time, it'll be a good buffer for Gingrich among Whites. Gingrich won by 12% over Romney in South Carolina.

Anyway, Steve Benen will be moving on from The Washington Monthly tomorrow. He'll be a producer for The Rachel Maddow Show.

 

[reilo]

Are you sure?

I figured my effective tax rate was much higher, but it was about inline with what Romney was paying. I'm not saying that its right that he's paying that rate, but in order for you to pay double that rate you must be doing something wrong or be making around $300,000 without owning a house or making any charitable donations.

Looking at my last pay-stub... 24.7% including local and federal (income, medicare, social security, et al).

So, yep. I'm certain I'll be paying taxes this year because I also do a lot of freelance work on the side, which I haven't paid taxes on it yet.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

As I said in my edited post, McCain had a more moderate position on immigration reform, and that's why he won the Hispanic vote by a large margin.

 

[The Librarian]

Romney's position is farthest to the right of any of the candidates.

Edit: Here.

 

[Dude Abides]

Boston Bruins goalie appears to be some kind of teabagger.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/23/sport/white-house-bruins-goalie/index.html

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

Either way, as I've said, they're not pandering to Hispanic voters. They're going after the conservative voters where economy and immigration are at the top of important issues.

The only issue Romney has now compared to 2008 are the amount of fuck ups he did in S.C..

 

[Particle Physicist]

Correct.

And they should be referred to as the Obama Tax Cuts now. They are his.

lol. only if you completely forget/ignore everything that happened for those tax cuts to be renewed.

 

[ezekial45]

http://www.youtube.com/whitehouse

Good lord, a lot of the questions here are incredibly misinformed and ignorant. It's fucking sad.

 

[sc0la]

Anyone know the quick and dirty way to calculate effective tax rate from my 1040? just for shits and giggles (and inevitable stupid facebook posts) I want to see what mine is

EDIT:
line 60 divided by line 22 is based on total income vs total tax. using AGI didn't seem right, and neither did using taxable income?

 

[GhaleonEB]

How does them being 12% of the vote make it so "they don't really matter"? If Romney loses that badly to Gingrich this time, it'll be a good buffer for Gingrich among Whites. Gingrich won by 12% over Romney in South Carolina.

Anyway, Steve Benen will be moving on from The Washington Monthly tomorrow. He'll be a producer for The Rachel Maddow Show.

I've long been an admirer of Benen's writing for the Political Animal blog. I'll miss his work greatly, and am saddened he's joning the cesspool of cable news. :\