twinturbo2
butthurt Heat fan
Does anyone know if The Raid: Redemption is getting a wide release? I want to see it.
Wkd Box Office Est. 0323-2512 - audiences hungry for Games
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Every Twilight film has released during Summer or Thanksgiving.
This is a Monday in March.
Monday drop for other big openers (non-summer/holiday):
Iron Man: 73%
Iron Man 2: 69.9%
Spider Man: 65.3%
Spider Man 3: 74.2%
Harry Potter 2: 78%
Fast Five: 71.5%
X-Men 2: 70.6%
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
So basically, exactly what you expect for a Monday.
Deathly Hallows pt. 2 did $47.4 Million in its second weekend. That is the next measuring stick I am interested in.
yeah, it looks incredible. i'd even go so far to say that it might break the 200m barrier opening weekend. previews must be running every hour in the us. they haven't started here yet, but there's still a month left until release date.
200M is a bigger dream than an under 100M opening.
i think it will pull it off. the other marvel films were all hits and this must be very anticipated. i know everyone i know is really looking forward to it.
TheKaeptain
Banned
No, just no.
twinturbo2
butthurt Heat fan
Regardless, Suzanne Collins must be swimming in a bank vault of gold coins like Scrooge McDuck right about now.
i admit i don't know alot about how the box office works, but the avengers is one of the biggest movies of the year and it being 3d, is 200m for the first weekend still too optimistic?
............trolololol
TheKaeptain
Banned
Yes. Very much so.
Discotheque
Banned
If James Cameron directed a film starring Justin Beiber (and it released after the kid died in a tragic James Dean-esque car accident) it still wouldn't break 200 mil opening weekend.
James Woods
Banned
LMFAO at The Avengers opening at 200 million. No way bro. I hope that shit underperforms and kills the superhero movie genre. Seriously though, I am riding on Spiderman and Avengers under performing and Rises being a disappointment. It's different when Green Lantern and an X-Men don't too so hot but those three? Shit will get real.
Too bad the superhero genre is getting replaced by fairy tale films. At least it is something new though.
Too bad the superhero genre is getting replaced by fairy tale films. At least it is something new though.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Yes.
Also, personally, I expect it to underperfrom by quite a bit. Not a bomba exactly, but the last movies with each of the characters were all "meh" and I expect audiences are not really super-hyped for it. I think the geek cred is high (Whedon, comics) and that's making the internet buzz and expectations out to be higher than they ought to be.
110M opener, fast drop.
i'm not trolling. i thought it might do it after the hunger games took in 155m.
oh, i didn't know. i take it back then. is 150m or 155m a more realistic figure?
Discotheque
Banned
Yeah that's more in line with current records. I think it might break 150. That's about it though.
It will be third biggest film of the summer.
It will be third biggest film of the summer.
TheKaeptain
Banned
It doesn't have the young females and 20 year old females of North America backing it.
3 of the guys are popular with women aren't they?
MrPink93485
Member
Eh that would be the range that Iron Man 2 opened, I think the Avengers should do at least 140, if not closer to 150. Especially considering the way that the box office has gone this year, people seem to be in the mood for movies.
vicissitudes
Banned
I don't see any reason why Avengers should do more OW than Iron Man 2, outside of the 3D surcharge. Iron Man 2 came off of Iron Man 1 which was a really good comic book movie and made a ton of money. Avengers is coming off of Iron Man 2, Thor, and Captain America which were all kinda "meh" and the trailers look pretty bad too.
Also people don't seem to be in the mood for movies any more than previous years, people just flocked to the Hunger Games because of the dearth of movies in the first quarter compared to previous years.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I think the also went to Hunger Games because it had huge gender crossover appeal and was a fresh idea*.
* Yeah yeah, Battle Royale, Running Man, I mean with young American mainstream audiences.
TheKaeptain
Banned
Not the samething.
MrPink93485
Member
I don't think the previous Marvel films were bad enough to turn audiences away completely from seeing another film, especially when they're all in a movie together. Curiosity should allow them to retain most of that audience.
While January was average in terms of box office, February and most likely March will be record setting months for the industry.
Well, yeah. I in no way wish to diminish the BO performance of the Hunger Games, that's just the next benchmark I'm interested in as a nerd.
I'm betting that it will beat that mark, though there is no way it will touch The Dark Knight's $75 million second weekend. For the record Avatar's second weekend was also $75 million.
I know I'm just adding flame to the fire hear but yeah, that would not be possible.
There are only a certain number of tickets that a movie can even sell in a given weekend. X number of theaters, X number of seats, X number of shows, etc. I remember an article in entertainment weekly prior to the Phantom Menace's release analyzing the theoretical max ticket that it could cell in its 5 day opening that detailed all this stuff. At a certain point you just sell out of seats.
$150M in a weekend is about the most that a movie can make at this point. One of the reasons that HP
H2 was able to get as high as $169M is that it had such a monstrous Thursday midnight opening.Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I think they'll shed a percentage of each of the previous films' viewers. I think after last year, going out to the latest Superhero pic has become a bit tired.
Of course, f the film gets good critical buzz thi scould chnage, but I predict it will get poo-pooed as a stunt, and because the reviewers are also burned out on super-heroes.
vicissitudes
Banned
Sure that's what I meant, first big-budget movie of the year worth seeing (for those reasons).
It won't turn audiences away completely, but historically when a film has good WOM its sequel performs better, and when a film has bad WOM its sequel performs worse. Iron Man 2 performed better than Iron Man 1 (at least OW) because of the strong WOM from Iron Man 1, and that only did 128M. If you compare Avengers to Iron Man 2:
+'s:
- New concept of having an ensemble of superheroes
- 3D surcharge
-'s:
- "sequel" to films with weaker WOM
- Iron Man 2 focused on Iron Man who has the most mass-appeal of all the Marvel characters so far; Avengers's focus will be split amongst some characters with less appeal such as Hawkeye
- trailer doesn't look as good as Iron Man 2's did (IMO)
- market has become more saturated with comicbook movies
I think Avengers has more going against it than Iron Man 2 so I would be surprised to see it substantially better in its first weekend.
Anecdotally, I know a shit ton more people who were excited about The Hunger Games compared to The Avengers.
Avengers is just there. It's coming off mediocre films, it has no big, compelling villain in the trailers, etc.
I'm not exactly the best at predicting box office, but I've known for ages that The Hunger Games was going to blow up and have massive crossover appeal. I don't see that excitement for The Avengers.
Avengers is just there. It's coming off mediocre films, it has no big, compelling villain in the trailers, etc.
I'm not exactly the best at predicting box office, but I've known for ages that The Hunger Games was going to blow up and have massive crossover appeal. I don't see that excitement for The Avengers.
WyndhamPrice
Member
ThatCrazyGuy
Member
I'm hyped for the Avengers.
So if anybody wants to use me as an anecdotal piece of evidence that somebody is excited for Avengers, go for it
I think it's gonna do well.
So if anybody wants to use me as an anecdotal piece of evidence that somebody is excited for Avengers, go for it
I think it's gonna do well.
I'm hyped for the Avengers.
So if anybody wants to use me as an anecdotal piece of evidence that somebody is excited for Avengers, go for it
I think it's gonna do well.
The question is how many people who never saw Captain America, The Incredible Hulk, or Thor will see it? It will need a TON of those people to do well since none of those 3 movies did that great.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Not only will it not break opening weekend records, it will underperfrom expectations.
The one thing it has going for it is a relative lack of competition.
The one thing it has going for it is a relative lack of competition.
vicissitudes
Banned
I think it'll do around 100-120 million. I'll be very surprised if it comes anywhere close to 150m.
We should get a prediction league going, like in Media Create threads
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I think it'll do around 100-120 million. I'll be very surprised if it comes anywhere close to 150m.
We should get a prediction league going, like in Media Create threads
Yeah, my guess was 110. I'm game for a prediction league. Anybody want to take those duties? If not, I might.
MrPink93485
Member
I see where you're coming from, but it depends really on how much people will place value on the 'ensemble of superheroes', and whether it can negate some of those negatives you listed. Since it is the first of its kind, it sort of makes it a wild card. Personally I thought Iron Man 2's trailer was kind of meh, while the Avengers trailer (2nd) was pretty good considering the scale of the film is much bigger than previous Marvel films.
Honestly I'm thinking 140 million, and depending on reviews, it could be higher. The premiere is in less than two weeks, so if the movie receives very positive reviews there will be considerable time to erase some of those doubts that people might have had from the likes of Iron Man 2, Thor, and Captain America.
twinturbo2
butthurt Heat fan
I think it'll do around 100-120 million. I'll be very surprised if it comes anywhere close to 150m.
We should get a prediction league going, like in Media Create threads
I'd be down with prediction threads.
I'd be off by a country mile, but all in good fun, right?
Ninja Scooter
Member
Yeah but were they good enough to grow the potential audience? Or will the same people that saw those movies be the ones to turn out for Avengers?
Barack Lesnar
Banned
If I were a betting man I'd go with under $100 mil for the opening of Avengers. Doesn't seem to have the hype like, for example, Iron Man 2.
MrPink93485
Member
Probably not, but if it made the public aware of some of these characters' existence (particularly Thor), putting them all into one movie may or may not pique an average person to see it beyond the usual superhero flick which has become formulaic and usually centered on one hero (X-Men aside).
To set the record straight, I'm not super excited for the Avengers, but I think just because we've been 'meh' on previous Marvel films doesn't mean we should expect that to necessarily translate to The Avengers.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
I still find it kind of ridiculous that for a film with a $220m budget, it looks like it has been shot for television in terms of lighting and the general aesthetic look of the production design.
dat joss whedon flair
Good Job Bob
Member
That's what happens when you give a TV director $220m.
TheKaeptain
Banned
It looks like Heroes.
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