PhoncipleBone
Banned
It will be big, that is for sure. Let's see how nuts this weekend is. I am guessing a 50% or so drop. Low 40s on the extremely optimistic end. If it manages to only have a 40% or less drop, we are in crazy land.
Wkd Box Office 054-612 -Whedon smash comic-to-film opening record, Nolan stays mad
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
- Status
It will be big, that is for sure. Let's see how nuts this weekend is. I am guessing a 50% or so drop. Low 40s on the extremely optimistic end. If it manages to only have a 40% or less drop, we are in crazy land.
Oh you! Broheim, I'm not insulting god Cameron here.
Solo broski can handle a few jokes on Craig/Bond/his BO predictions etc. by himself just fine.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
When can we start imagining a realistic possibility that a Joss Whedon film could top Avatar?
Spiderman's a ways away. Maybe Battleship will tank....
PhoncipleBone
Banned
If the drop this weekend is 40% or less.
When the 4th weekend is larger than the 3rd.
Never.
Careful Forester, for even suggesting the possibility of crossing Avatar. Adam (Sculli) is going to jump on you.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
4th weekend is Memorial Day Weekend.
39% drop. Its not crazy, its believing.
Discotheque
Banned
lol not even close.
MrPink93485
Member
If it drops like Spider-Man, then Avatar is in play.
Do you think it can do it?
We'll see about that.
Discotheque
Banned
Are you talking overall or just second weekend drop or something?
If it's the former then...yeah nothing has a chance this year including Hobbit.
If it's the former then...yeah nothing has a chance this year including Hobbit.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Since I launched the Sculi signal, I feel I should clarify. The thought of a Joss Whedon film being the #1 film greatly amuses me. It's not in any way a dig against Avatar, I've never been anything but impressed at it's success.
With Spider-Man's multiplier, it can get to 730M. That is still short by 30M or so.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
And when Men in Black opens.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
I agree that it's not following its run, I'm just saying that I think $550m is still an optimistic prediction at this point (this weekend will tell for sure). It can be hard to judge legs from the first week's weekdays with something this huge, because you get a lot of spillover audience into the week due to all the sellouts. I'd love Avengers to reach $600m, but I'm going to be cautious on predicting anything above the $490-$510 range right now.
If it gets $50m on its 4th weekend, then you can start having that conversation.
Oh dear, and without the body he has now...Daniel Craig has always looked older. Here is him at about 26 years old:
Already looks like a 35 year old man.
THANK THE LORD for the James Bond regime.
You dont have to clarify anything. Its fiiiiiiiiiine.
Good Job Bob
Member
Prometheus comes out that weekend, Avengers better not steal any money from Prometheus.
MrPink93485
Member
Yeah I know, but is close enough to be 'in play.'
Spider-Man did face Attack of the Clones for competition, , so it probably helps that the movies this month of May are probably not as strong, but yeah, Avatar is mostly a pipe dream anyway.
Clayton Bigsby
Banned
It is kinda creepy you keep using his real name.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Joss can rebuild Adam.
Discotheque
Banned
Fassbender looks older than he is too. He's still a sexbomb yeah but nobody would guess he was around the same age as Orlando Bloom or Colin Farrell.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
He does the same to me, in fact (Disco etc.) uses my name too. But I dont use/know Disco's. So Disco using my name is creepy.
I'm hoping Prometheus does really well, put a big number on it in the prediction thread.
Agreed.
Good Job Bob
Member
Eh, it's just that Orlando and Colin look younger than they are.
Fassbender looks appropriately aged.
Discotheque
Banned
wtf is you on about? That was your former GAF name. Common sense does point to that being your real name too though since it is a real name so...my bad I guess. But no I wasn't being artist-creepy.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
Lol @ Avengers reaching Avatar.
And yeah, we call you by your original forum name creepmeister.
And yeah, we call you by your original forum name creepmeister.
Gee .. Sculli was pimping his website here. Knowing his real name isnt Disco-esqe creepy.
Ok, Adam Bustin who's Xemu is Lord Cameron.
Discotheque
Banned
lol
Cameron's time is up, Whedon's time is now.
Good Job Bob
Member
..except having a season 2.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
Like we said, super creepy. And I didn't pimp my website, because it isn't my website. I posted an article I wrote for that website in a relevant thread. Seek help.
What's there to bite on? He is the spam of trolling. No meat.
Speedymanic
Banned
Which isn't a fair comparison, but whatever..let's not get into that again.
The Avengers would have had a shot at Titanic (domestically) if it stayed at 600M. I don't think that number is by any means guaranteed yet, but a 2.9x first weekend mulitplier isn't exactly unheard of for a well liked summer blockbuster. The Dark Knight had a 3.4x multiplier, so the Avengers could hit 600M with worse drops.
The 3D re-release of Titanic put it out of reach though. Unless we see a Spider-man 1 second weekend drop.
They keep trying it with THE KING, only to find themselves squashed like ants under the sheer immensity of HIS GLORY.
This time a year where every week will have at least one 3000+ theater release with 100mil advertising budgets. Its just going to get buried. If it was at the end of the year, where there is normally a good two months of slow releasing. Potentially it could(Though I don't think it struck that same audience Titanic and Avatar did). But being the first out of the gate for summer means its got about 8-9 weeks of competition following it.
Not that the Avengers has any shot at beating Avatar, but Avatar actually had more competition in its early weeks than the Avengers does. This May is pretty weak. Weeks 8-9 don't matter that much. The Dark Knight had great legs for a blockbuster, and even that movie made 90% of its total gross in its first 5 weeks in theatres.
Only one of his 4 shows didn't get a season 2.
The Avengers won't beat/reach near Titanic because Disney had no balls. By releasing it in May, it guarantees a level of success but at the same time it denies another level of success. Big movies are dropping near it's release date, so my tip is for Avengers 2 to release in say November/December and roll the dice.
Big movies drop in November/December too. This year's Nov/Dec period has two probable $300M films and 2-3 more that should wind up in the $150-200M range. I would be surprised if anything breaks $200M this May other than The Avengers. MIB3 is the only movie I would bet money on passing $150M, and even that film is giving me a Rush Hour 3 vibe.
EDIT: Also, Marvel is testing a Fall release with Thor 2 next year.
Do I have to remind everyone of my original prediction for The Avengers?
It's going to surpass Avatar so stop the fighting. My math and logic is solid on this one and cannot be disputed. Might even hit $1 billion domestic and $3 billion WW which would allow Disney to but the Spider-Man rights from Sony.
It's going to surpass Avatar so stop the fighting. My math and logic is solid on this one and cannot be disputed. Might even hit $1 billion domestic and $3 billion WW which would allow Disney to but the Spider-Man rights from Sony.
- Status