I basically agree, in fact I've said all along that the main reason Wizards hasn't gotten rid of the Reserved List is to protect their ultimate cash cow, Standard. I do think it would be tremendously profitable to take a lage slice of the secondary market by reprinting stuff - in the short term. Basically do a modern masters where you can pull dual lands or Moats or Candelabaras as mythics? It would be hugely profitable- but again, in the short term.
I don't think an MM equivalent for Legacy would be good from a business perspective, primarily because the retailer markup for such a product would be
insane, pricing all but hardcore investor types out of the format. The entirety of the Magic player base will resent the product because they either won't be able to afford it, or perceive it as affecting their bottom line. The player base doesn't grow. Lose-lose situation, extremely high risk.
I don't understand how the RL protects Standard. At first I thought you were suggesting they make RL cards Standard-legal, but then you suggested an MM-type product, which is still format-restricted. Can you elaborate?
This I don't agree with. The reason people HAVE to rationalize Legacy is because the prices are so ludicrously high - again, because of the Reserved List, and the stagnant and fixed supply of Legacy cards (no more than 300K of each dual land, for example).
When I began buying into Legacy back in early '09, I really didn't have to rationalize like this, because prices weren't anywhere near as high- it was almost like buying into a Standard that never rotated. Even if card values dipped sometimes from reprints, it wouldn't be any more risky than buying into Standard, where values are guaranteed to dip after a while.
I can appreciate this perspective, but there exists a significant portion of the player base that moved into Legacy because they were tired of their cards losing value upon rotation (in addition to having interest in the deck archetypes unique to the format). Again, these are price-savvy players, typically experienced with Standard-level market fluctuations, as you are yourself. You knew going in that prices would, at worst, be as volatile as Standard, but would generally be more stable. Now, while you would be okay with your investment losing significant value overnight, can you say the same for others?
Furthermore, I don't know why people constantly assume that reprints = instant market crash- in fact, limited reprints would not have kept Legacy prices from going up, they would have simply kept them from going up in ridiculous 2x, 3x or 4x jumps. Reprinting cards doesn't have to mean Chronicles 2.0, it can easily be done in a smart and controlled way (neither overly conservative like Modern Masters looks to be, nor overly abundant like Chronicles was).
It's a completely irrational perspective, I agree. Certain players appear to enjoy the "collectible" aspect of the game more than the game itself, and their binder values dictate whether or not they stay in the game. I've been debating with my friend the past few days over the RL and the notion of protecting peoples' collections with Modern Masters, and he's of the mentality that a short-term drop in value of staples would damage the integrity of the game and result in players leaving forever (he would be among these players). He is, of course, heavily invested in Legacy and has gotten into Modern based on the notion that it will be Legacy 2 in the next few years. He balks at the idea of making staples more accessible to players by increasing supply, using extreme arguments to back his position - "If you can't afford Tarmogoyf, tough luck, play another deck", "They'll have another Chronicles on their hands", "They might as well give the cards away then", and so on.
I understand where he's coming from because he puts a lot of effort into trading for legacy and modern staples, and thrives on trading up. Personally, I think his mentality is toxic and detrimental to the game, but it's something that resellers can relate to; Wizards can afford to lose hardcore collector-players, as my hunch is that they're a vocal minority that overestimates their contribution to the community, but they must maintain their relationship with resellers who stand to "lose" tens of thousands of dollars. Moreover, I simply don't have the data to support a large print run of MM; no one does, and in this economy, no business can afford taking that risk when there's a much safer, vendor-centric alternative in charging a premium for boosters and controlling supply. Theoretically, if they were to print a shit-tonne of MM, staple prices take a hit before rising and stabilizing again as the format grows, but there's no guarantee of success. The slow and steady approach is the smarter avenue, as the set stays attractive from a value perspective, generates interest in the format, and keeps resellers happy.
Also, Wizards just reprinted the Shocklands in a big, non-limited way. Prices are going down, down down on Shocks and people who bought into Modern aren't crying and moaning very much. Why? Because there was no RL, people really couldn't expect to treat their cards like investments.
I think it's more the fact that people saw the shock reprints coming from a mile away, and that Modern is still too new a format to have a heavily invested player base. While some cards are pretty expensive, only Tarmogoyf really approaches the price level of cards on the RL. Shocks were what, $20-$30 before the reprints? Expensive, sure, but not prohibitively so (though getting there, imo). Plus, they're not reprints for the hell of it, they actually fit the format; a reprint made sense. Five years from now, if Modern is officially a thing, you can bet that people will cry oceans of tears if their Bobs, Tarmogoyfs, Shocks and Fetches get reprinted. Hell, if they reprinted the Fetchlands tomorrow, I guarantee you'd get a whole lot of whinging from people who aggressively traded for them when they were ~$10.
I agree that people shouldn't treat cards as investments, as they are historically poor ones, but that's a moot point; the expectation is there all the same. Much of the reason people buy this product by the case is because of the perceived value attached it, and the entire collectibles industry is built on this notion. I wince when my stocks drop in value, so I can relate on that level. It's irrational, but people can't help feeling - wait for it -
entitled to some semblance of value.
Finally, while the lack of a Modern RL would theoretically prevent prices from getting out of hand, my guess is that modern will see controlled reprints that will keep prices of staples relatively high and stable, anyway. They've gone on record saying that they will "respect peoples' collections" with Modern Masters, and there's no reason to believe otherwise. Now, I personally would love it if Wizards printed enough tarmogoyfs to reduce the price of an MM version to $20 a pop or even less, but it's naive to think that'll happen. MM Goyfs will have to fetch $50-$60 in order for the packs (which you
know will be marked up) to be worth it.
Me, I'll probably just proxy some. I can support limited because I like playing with new cards, but I'll be damned if I ever pay more than $10 for a single card.
It is the fact that players today are hoping to get in on the ground level of a new lotus or the next big money card that keeps people popping packs.
I don't know that "getting in on the ground level of a new lotus" is necessarily a driving factor in cracking boosters for the typical player, but the chance to pull a money card is absolutely a strong incentive. Though part of me does wonder how much JTMS will fetch five years down the road. Banned in Modern, yet sitting pretty at $100!
The competition is secondary to the lottery hope of collectors every time they pop a pack.
I think people are missing the bolded here.
