Can anyone chart the amount of RPGs sold each year in Japan by company ? I would love to see how S-E's competitors are "struggling" as well.
In Japan? On consoles? There's pretty much nothing of real relevance nowadays. FF13-2 didn't sell good by the series standards, but it still sold better than any other RPG in Japan.
Anyway, RPG sales don't matter. So many people always focus on their Japanese output, but completely ignore that most of their key titels are "Eidos" games nowadays. That's what's making them problems right now: Both Sleeping Dogs and Hitman: Absolution didn't live up to expectations.
However, whatever people say, I still think that Tomb Raider is going to enjoy very good sales. SE is going to market it to hell and back and it'll pay off.
Mark my words: Unless something changes at Square-Enix Eidos, they are next in line after THQ.
I'd say they are still much better off than most Western publishers. The loss is pretty modest, really -- 5.7 billion yen is round about 60 million USD. Pretty much peanuts, especially since they also expect to post a profit at the end of the FY.
I think FY ending in March 2011 was the only time they posted a yearly loss in the last years. They aren't doing bad, even if they had two underperforming big budget releases this year.
Tomb Raider isn´t their biggest problem, the game is probably going to sell decently. FF 14 and Lightning Returns on the other hand...ouch.
Lightning Returns's problems aren't its sales, but that its pure existence might harm the brand recognition of Final Fantasy even more. People widely dislike the FF13 saga and every new game in that sub-series is a potential threat for the franchises appeal. Will people still pay as much attention to FF15 when SE released three unliked games in a row? Also, Final Fantasy has always been a series that appeals to teens -- but due to its terrible management in this generation, todays teens might have never played a game in the series.
But: Lightning Returns should be quite cheap to develop, so even if sales further decrease (and they most likely will) it should still have been a profitable game.
FF14... I don't know. The game looks really good, actually, and if SE isn't stupid they've already made plans for a F2P relaunch in a year or so if they shouldn't attract enough subscribers. I think it's going end up being a success for them, eventually.