eddfromtheriver
Banned
I still think SONY jinxed the VITA by not naming it PSP2, i think people would've gone... oh! the PSP2 is coming out!, instead of... a VITA what?
PlayStation Vita Sales See Massive Spike in Japan (nearly six times increase)
- Thread starter Hydrogen Bluebird
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I am here to crush all of your hopes and dreams.
I have no personal grudge against the Vita. Just really doubting its selling ability. Although I do think Tales of Hearts R will do fairly well next week.
They're not.But I've looked at the Vita's software history and sales history enough to legitimately doubt some titles' selling power.
No need to put the fact that you are a hateboy in spoiler-tags.
Some games such as Demon Gaze sold 10 times of what they were budgeting for, budgeted for 8k sales, and last I read it had sold more than 80k copies in Japan..
That's not a sucess-story to you, it's a flop because established franchise such as HSG, sold twice that, in Japan.
Also, I think it were Atlus who allmost doubled their financial income post compared to expectations last quarter, mainly because they had more sucess on Vita than they expected. And I think that were before P4G came to the west.
Vita is a viable market, right now. It's by far the best handheld gamingsystem.
You asked earlier in the thread what Vita could do wich 3DS couldn't, obviously loads of stuff..
It can do proper FPS-games, the most obvious thing. And controls better in third person games also.. Having sticks, instead of sliders - gives most games requiring fluid movements, and not a grid-movements, better controls.
A FPS like Resistance were a fun game, not as good as Insomniac's ones on consoles, but it still a notch or two up, compared to anything I expect would come to phones or competing handhelds, in the same genre, a FPS wich were fun on handhelds for me for the first time.
I didn't try CoD, since I prefer a futuristic universe and are more into the singleplayer game.
I also would be suprised if I saw any games on 3DS wich could rival Vita launch-titles such as Virtua Tennis, or Uncharted in their respective genres, simply because it don't have enough power.
Sure, there will be games wich sell as much, but I don't expect to see any games wich play and look as good.
Also the touch-screen on Vita is much better multitouch.
electroplankton
Banned
No need to put the fact that you are a hateboy in spoiler-tags.
Some games such as Demon Gaze sold 10 times of what they were budgeting for, budgeted for 8k sales, and last I read it had sold more than 80k copies in Japan..
That's not a sucess-story to you, it's a flop because established franchise such as HSG, sold twice that, in Japan.
Also, I think it were Atlus who allmost doubled their financial income post compared to expectations last quarter, mainly because they had more sucess on Vita than they expected. And I think that were before P4G came to the west.
Vita is a viable market, right now. It's by far the best handheld gamingsystem.
You asked earlier in the thread what Vita could do wich 3DS couldn't, obviously loads of stuff..
It can do proper FPS-games, the most obvious thing. And controls better in third person games also.. Having sticks, instead of sliders - gives most games requiring fluid movements, and not a grid-movements, better controls.
A FPS like Resistance were a fun game, not as good as Insomniac's ones on consoles, but it still a notch or two up, compared to anything I expect would come to phones or competing handhelds, in the same genre, a FPS wich were fun on handhelds for me for the first time.
I didn't try CoD, since I prefer a futuristic universe and are more into the singleplayer game.
I also would be suprised if I saw any games on 3DS wich could rival Vita launch-titles such as Virtua Tennis, or Uncharted in their respective genres, simply because it don't have enough power.
Sure, there will be games wich sell as much, but I don't expect to see any games wich play and look as good.
Also the touch-screen on Vita is much better multitouch.
It is?
Maybe for niche games, such as Demon Gaze and Senran Kagura. Can a platform survive only with those games? Let's see. The problem is that without breakout hits, it won't reach hardware sales level to sustain bigger productions.
Soul Sacrifice is sold out in many places according to twitter.
CoachKevin
Member
Just some anecdotal evidence. I arrived in Shinjuku last night and hit up the Softmap. Place was sold out of Vitas and Soul Sacrifice. There was a huge display with a demo of the game running. About a dozen people were glued to the TV.
The one awesome thing about Vita in Japan is the awesome selection of cases. Going to pick up one or two tomorrow. Still debating on the silver Vita.
The one awesome thing about Vita in Japan is the awesome selection of cases. Going to pick up one or two tomorrow. Still debating on the silver Vita.
No need to put the fact that you are a hateboy in spoiler-tags.
Some games such as Demon Gaze sold 10 times of what they were budgeting for, budgeted for 8k sales, and last I read it had sold more than 80k copies in Japan..
That's not a sucess-story to you, it's a flop because established franchise such as HSG, sold twice that, in Japan.
Also, I think it were Atlus who allmost doubled their financial income post compared to expectations last quarter, mainly because they had more sucess on Vita than they expected. And I think that were before P4G came to the west.
Vita is a viable market, right now. It's by far the best handheld gamingsystem.
You asked earlier in the thread what Vita could do wich 3DS couldn't, obviously loads of stuff..
It can do proper FPS-games, the most obvious thing. And controls better in third person games also.. Having sticks, instead of sliders - gives most games requiring fluid movements, and not a grid-movements, better controls.
A FPS like Resistance were a fun game, not as good as Insomniac's ones on consoles, but it still a notch or two up, compared to anything I expect would come to phones or competing handhelds, in the same genre, a FPS wich were fun on handhelds for me for the first time.
I didn't try CoD, since I prefer a futuristic universe and are more into the singleplayer game.
I also would be suprised if I saw any games on 3DS wich could rival Vita launch-titles such as Virtua Tennis, or Uncharted in their respective genres, simply because it don't have enough power.
Sure, there will be games wich sell as much, but I don't expect to see any games wich play and look as good.
Also the touch-screen on Vita is much better multitouch.
I think it's great that Demon Gaze sold that much; I never said it was a flop. There's completely unexpected titles like Run for the Money that have sold more than 400,000 on the 3DS too. But it's not like either of those titles are doing much to drive the sales of the Vita or the 3DS, respectively.
I know there are a couple of improvements the Vita has over the 3DS, I'm not blind enough to discount that. But they aren't as big as the 2D to 3D difference between the DS and the PSP, which is ultimately causing identity issues for the Vita. Multi-touch is cool, FPS's are cool, rear touchpad is cool. But none of those things are system sellers. They're things, once you have the console, that enhance the experience.
I don't see a system seller on the Vita. I don't see Sony doing everything they can to make the Vita into a legitimate competitor to the 3DS. I don't want to see it fail; there are way too many people saying the handheld market is shrinking, when the fact of the matter is that both Sony and Nintendo struggled out of the gate and were incompetent, and I want Sony to pull their own weight. But I don't see it happening.
I think the answer is that if titles like Demon Gaze and Senran Kagura were coming out every week, it would easily sustain the platform. The probability that any one of those titles would be a breakout hit would be small, but the probability certainly wouldn't be zero.
zeopower6
Member
electroplankton
Banned
An advice: you shouldn't read too much in those reports. Sold-out might also mean a very low shipment, and given some preorders we saw, it might be the case. Even Monster Monpiece was sold-out, and then it went to sell something like 25k in the first week. Really good for the project, but this to show that sold-out doesn't mean automatically high sales.
How come? They cannot sustain hardware sales if they cannot move hardware. Maybe it will have 2-3k units more per week but that's all.
Having games release regularly will tend to move hardware even if no single game is the sole reason for selling the hardware. System sellers tend to have a negative effect on other games in the same genre within the span of time that they're charting, so they tend to be a bad thing for variety anyway.
zeopower6
Member
Monster Monpiece didn't necessarily get the push that Soul Sacrifice is getting, it seems. (plus I don't think it was ever intended to have that large of a shipment... RUBRUBRUB) I mean, it's all over the official Sony page. Some people were guessing 100k~ at least for Soul Sacrifice. Senran Kagura also sold out (with realllly long lines of people waiting to get it) and that did 120,000~ so I'd say that it's a good sign rather than thinking "Oh, it's just because they barely shipped any copies of Soul Sacrifice out." since they have a normal edition, premium bundle, and a double-pack with two copies of the game for a pretty discounted price available.
electroplankton
Banned
It depends. Small games are also attracted by the fact that there exist bigger games, and there's a high installed base. I doubt regular games that can hardly sell 100k will push much hardware, in particular if they're targeted towards the very userbase already owning the platform.
Also: what you're saying about system sellers and similar games is not really true. We have seen how Animal Crossing is selling, and in the meanwhile Fantasy Life is selling above expectations, and Magician's Quest also sold really well (all released in the same timeframe).
I know, indeed I have high expectations for the game (for me, below 100k would be disappointing given the push he's receiving). Anyway, I said to not read too much on those reports. We have seen lines for Vita last week, and sold 60k units; 3DS is selling more than 70k weekly and we didn't see any lines, for example.
Because the platform is doing oh-so we'll right now, right?
If the Vita had a 100k seller every week, that would definitely be enough to sustain the platform for a successful life. Especially considering how it only has 3 of them after 62 weeks on sale.
electroplankton
Banned
Neither PS2 had so many.
Just a quick post thanking those that got the numbers sold/shipped to my question on the other page. My optimism is sure misplaced now
Soon... right? Monday?
Looked it up for you, wasn't Hirai but instead was Scott Rhode, VP of Sony Worldwide Studios:
it’s also not going to lose money for us on day one.
We also have this quote from Yoshida by the way, about how the Vita was designed:
“Going through the PlayStation 3 experience was difficult for all of us involved,” he said.
“So when we started working on PS Vita three years ago we set goals, and one of those goals was to hit the $249 price point, €249 from the very, very beginning.
As for Hirai's "profitable within 3 years", 1. breaking even is not profit and 2. I doubt Hirai had been given up to the minute forcasts on what economy of scale could do to the Vita's hardware costs when Apple and Samsung put much of the same silicon in multi-million seller devices. The chips Sony was planning on using in '08 for Vita have obviously seen massive refinement in production resulting in obvious yield improvement and reduction in price. That's just design 101 and not something he could have predicted the day Vita was announced.
No, but they give you a ball park of a baseline. They obviously don't figure in any R&D costs being built into early per-unit mark ups, assembly, packaging, and distribution. But you can do a little forecasting and get at a reasonable estimate. Nintendo isn't losing money on $170 3DS systems now, why do you think Sony is losing any significant amount on $200 Vitas? The launch BoM was $60 apart. Nintendo launched in Feb/March (depending on region) and cut the price by $80 globally in July of the same year (almost exactly 5 months from JP launch, 4 from NA/EU launch). Sony launched in Dec 2011/Feb 2012 and went just over 13 months before cutting the price in one region, when it got a $50 price cut.
I don't think the math is even all that hard to add up here. If the $250 3DS had a slim profit margin built into it followed by an $80 price cut mere months after launch while the Vita was sold more or less at cost and went a full year before a $50 price cut it adds up rather nicely for both. In fact, an approximately ~$100 production/distribution cost per unit would fit both very well, giving Nintendo a $50 launch profit that quickly became a $30 loss versus Sony losing all of $10 (made back on the first game or memory card sold, and profitable on every WiFi unit sold since their BoM didn't jump $50).
That assumes Nintendo reduced the 3DS' hardware costs by >$30 since July 2011 when it is primarily constructed of hardware only Nintendo is pushing in large numbers.
Meanwhile the PSV could now be selling at a similar break even point if Sony has reduced it's costs by $50 within the past year when they use fewer of the major hardware components than most other purchasers (like the iPhone 4S, iPad 3, iPad Mini, etc.).
Obviously we have no way of knowing for sure, but the math adds up rather nicely, doesn't it?
Well, you said the GC had a few guaranteed million sellers to help propel it, I was just pointing out that Uncharted is pretty much a guaranteed million seller in it's own right at this point.
Gran Turismo and God of War will both also most likely have Vita versions and both would almost definitely move 1M+ units. That would equate to multiple guaranteed million sellers.
But then, that isn't too surprising when the system moved >600K of AC3:Liberation this past holiday season. That is a very NA/EU focused game, made by a secondary studio, without the main protagonists of previous entries and it still did 2/3rds of a million in only a few months on a system with only a couple million install base.
Also, 3rd parties are on board, they just aren't your typical handheld fare. Sony has been gaining significant steam with the indie scene. If that continues there is high potential of finding the additional breakout software needed to move hardware.
So anyhow, lets get back to your comment on economy of scale.
Did you know that LG was quite happy to move 3M LTE phones from their first LTE phone release in March 2011 to that milestone in March 2012? This is across all models, in all regions. So they're able to turn out multiple models of high end smartphones distributed just as globally as Sony's PSV, and are still apparently quite profitable at 3M per year (not too different from the Vita's first year with only one hardware design). Interesting how that works, huh?
Mr_Antimatter
Member
VG chartz isn't too accurate, but even they peg 35 games as having done 100k or better globally. Not sure if that counts digital sales ether (doesn't seem like it)
Care to list that first party library that is "one of the best libraries ever" because I just spit my drink all over the place at that statement
We don't use those numbers for a reason. No chance in hell 35 Vita games crossed 100k.
Napalm_Frank
Member
This. DS has the worst 1st party games on recent Nintendo consoles imo. For example Mario Galaxy alone shits all over the Nintendo titles on DS.
shinra-bansho
Member
Chartz is banned and their numberzzz are banned. For good reason.
For example, The World Ends With You shits all over anything Nintendo has made on the DS. Twice.
I'm also pretty sure Square-Enix has put out more quality DS titles than Nintendo. SQUARE!
I don't know why you started off your "schooling" with a quote of what I posted.
You (and many others I'll add) didn't read what AOC83 said and I continued with properly.
AOC83 was talking about the cost of the whole exercise across the machine's total lifetime. He was saying that the Vita isn't on course to be a profitable venture overall.
Take the 360 for example, afaik it is either not yet profitable or just barely profitable as a product over its entire lifetime.
To be clear we were talking about the profitability of the entire venture and not yearly profits or profit per unit.
again and again it appears that people aren't grasping how bad Vita sales are. it's selling between Wonderswan and Dreamcast levels, but it's more expensive and exists in a dying market, monopolized by Nintendo. the constant comparisons to GC or even Wii U are proving people aren't grasping the dire situation Vita is in.
I expect SS to be a success, and Vita will be above 50k this week.
Compleeetly subjective, yo.
encephalon
Member
Sometimes the Vita seems as if the Vita has the potential to rise from the grave it treated appropriately, but it's hard to say if that can happen. The only solution I can think of is to try to gain back some of the PSP's market by funding a few high profile 3rd party games. Because 3rd parties aren't likely to do so with some serious encouragement.
Are dedicated handhelds a dying market in countries with a strong reliance on public transport and considerable commutes for high school age students?
Are dedicated handhelds a dying market in countries with a strong reliance on public transport and considerable commutes for high school age students?
breakfuss
Member
(going along with the pics someone posted earlier...)
Make of it what you will, but I just came from a local target and they had a sticker on the display marked with, "Do Not Inventory". Hope that doesn't mean they're discontinuing their stock, even if it is just at this one particular store. This is aside from the paltry offerings on display. *sigh* Guess I've been a glutton for this sort of thing since the dreamcast and gamecube, but it never feels any better...
EDIT: YIKES! I didn't mean for the pictures to be this large...sorry, trying to shrink them now...
Make of it what you will, but I just came from a local target and they had a sticker on the display marked with, "Do Not Inventory". Hope that doesn't mean they're discontinuing their stock, even if it is just at this one particular store. This is aside from the paltry offerings on display. *sigh* Guess I've been a glutton for this sort of thing since the dreamcast and gamecube, but it never feels any better...
EDIT: YIKES! I didn't mean for the pictures to be this large...sorry, trying to shrink them now...
Demoncarnotaur
Member
I would like handhelds to get big again, and I want to see the Vita and 3DS succeed, so this is good news. That said, its going to take a price drop and a hell of a lot more games to get me to buy one.
Father_Brain
Banned
Yeah, I commented on the Rohde quote earlier in the thread. Not the same thing as explicit confirmation that the hardware was sold at or above cost at launch.
Again, you're not really acknowledging economy of scale. How many Vita units was Sony able to manufacture and ship in the first year, versus Nintendo for 3DS?
(My understanding, BTW, was that Vita was using custom, tweaked versions of existing chip designs rather than 100% off-the-shelf parts, but I could be wrong about that.)
Great, except that GC had eight worldwide multimillion sellers. Nothing announced for Vita will come close.
Why, exactly? ACIII:L only sold 600K worldwide during the holidays, and COD probably did only a bit better based on NPD leaks. Neither GoW nor GT is that much more popular than either of those IP (well, both are much smaller than CoD), so while they could sell 1M each worldwide, it's certainly not guaranteed
Yes, it sold 600K, with attractively priced bundles, in the biggest shopping season of the year. Vita still sold less than PSP did in the 2011 holidays, at a point when it was universally considered dead or near-dead outside Japan.
There's still enough of a remaining niche market for console-style games aimed at 17-30 males on handhelds for such titles to turn a profit, assuming they're developed on a reasonable budget. But they won't move hardware, not to anything resembling the degree needed to get Vita on a trajectory to even a 20m LTD in a few years.
Please point to a single indie game that has moved significant quantities of hardware on its own, rather than being on hardware that millions of people already own for other purposes. Wishful thinking.
Smells like an apples-to-oranges comparison. Did LG forecast shipping over 6M LTE phones in that year, and were any of those units sold on a razor/blade model?
TheExecutive
Member
So a sales thread for vita turned into a pissing match eh?
Who could have seen this coming?
Who could have seen this coming?
DESTROYA
Member
Yup! Not sure why people just can't be happy it's finally getting some good sales and of course people are pissing all over it.
Evolution_1ne
Banned
Vita is indeed a really stupid name
edit: I always thought the people who take time out of their day to actually snap pictures of inventory for anecdotal evidence was sort of weird? like fanboyism taken to the next level. I take pictures of inventory.....but only in cases of theft :/
OT: solid sales Vita
And NOBODY here knows those numbers. Believing that is nothing more than console warrior wishful thinking, as is the whole 'vita is dead' meme.
haha. yeah. Still fun to point and laugh though.
AranhaHunter
Banned
25k
If they are serious, they need the big ones. Minecraft, DayZ (or variants), Angry Birds, Fruit Ninja, and the like. Minecraft might be coming after the MS' exclusivity runs out, with it being talked so much I can't help but think it's a year and after May 2013 we may hear more about it. AB Trilogy, though, has released on everything but the vita, so that doesn't bode too well IMHO. They got some niche praised indies on the machine, but with PSM being a bust so far, I still need to see a lot more before I declare the vita the "indie handheld machine".
A relaunch in the Fall with new Vita SKUs could be what Sony has planned, given the rumored 4G/HDMI model, they could be pushing it with the play anywhere that they intended the vita to launch with. I have heard that 4G network can provide good online multiplaying and it should be able to stream games just fine as well. Not sure about latency over a 4G network though. They would still need one or two big games, sure KZM and Tearway are good, but they need something like GTA:SAS, GT, or a good COD or AC game in order to have a decent relaunch. I'm not sure a relaunch is a good thing, since it would be a gamble with the money it would take, but if they are to do it please have a tablet/xl version and include some build in storage in all SKUs.
Considering how SK sold, Sony would be smart to get NB's Idolmaster or Konami's LovePlus on the machine, possibly as early as this year, and solidify the vita as the device of choice for that audience much like MS did with the 360 early in its life.
metalslimer
Member
I can't really figure how people think Vita (as a project whole) will ultimately be profitable for Sony. They said it would take 2 years to recoup the investments they made, but Vita hasn't even come close to the projection they made for last year and it won't sell to that projection even when combined with this year. Unless that was a misquote, or Sony was actually losing money on Vita hardware to begin with and they weren't talking about overall, but then that would mean Sony is losing a lot of money with the price drop in japan.
Some people are capable of predicting things (yes, even "negative" things!) without it being due to some sort of brand loyaltly.
That is often how predictions work, trajectory.
Personally, attempting to silence negativity with illogical reasoning comes off as "console warrior" behavior.
Father_Brain
Banned
Amen.
If there were any facts that suggested a GC-level LTD for Vita was realistic, or a Sony exec came out and said that Vita was currently profitable, it's not like I'd have trouble accepting it.
I think that the three years of Latin I suffered through in high school gives me the right to be pedantic about declensions and cases. We wouldn't write Romanes eunt domus, would we?
http://blog.esuteru.com/archives/6970004.html
probably not new-thread-worthy, so I post it in this thread. Pre-orders for oboro muramasa are sold-out in some retailers. I guess this is very good news for AQL and Sony...Vita should sell alright in the coming weeks.
probably not new-thread-worthy, so I post it in this thread. Pre-orders for oboro muramasa are sold-out in some retailers. I guess this is very good news for AQL and Sony...Vita should sell alright in the coming weeks.
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
They have to be happy with they sell throughs, but they might want to consider shipping a little extra with the sell throughs for the recent crop of games being so high. Have to believe supply issues are rearing their head. Hopefully the games have legs and can overcome that.
yurinka
Member
Soul Sacrifice is going to have legs...a lot of them too.
I think that with this and SS Kaz should be happy.
And onepiece for vita too. That's pretty big in Japan. (though it is also coming out to PS3)
electroplankton
Banned
Really?
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