March 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 15

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, April 15th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: March 3-April 6 (5 weeks, February was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, April 18th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.

Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. PSV is not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[360] 300K        [360] 300 thousand
[360] 300,000     [360] 300.000
[360] 300000      [360] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in March:
Pikachu (Pokemon) LE 3DSXL - $199.99 (March 24) - 14 days
Easter (March 31) - 2012 Easter fell in the April month, so that could lead to a YOY increase for March, as a result

February's Results - thanks to Nirolak, shinra-bansho, and a variety of angles

Hardware:

For sure numbers:
Xbox 360: 302K (-29.1%)
PS3: 263K (-26.9%)
Wii U: 66K (70% of them were Deluxe consoles.)
My final take to meet all the conditions:

3DS = 189K
PSV = 38K

February 2012 NPD thread
March 2012 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[360] 290K
[3DS] 245K
[PS3] 260K
[PSV] 40K
[WIU] 60K

3DS had major $130/160 sales and the Pikachu edition, plus Luigi's and PMD; I think it will see a significant rise. Everything else drops off a bit.
Hope I'm right!

edit: switching my 3DS and PS3 predictions
 
Did you mention Easter? That's often cited as a sales driver and it fell squarely in March's period this year. Also might check when it was last year.
 
Did you mention Easter? That's often cited as a sales driver and it fell squarely in March's period this year. Also might check when it was last year.

Ah, good point! Yes, that is usually cited by NPD for a rise/fall in sales for YOY numbers. Will add it in. :)

Edit:
Easter 2012 was April 8, so the gift-buying would've come in the April month (week before Easter), whereas it fell in the March month this time around. Could lead to a YOY increase (or lessened YOY decrease) for March, then.
 
Ah, good point! Yes, that is usually cited by NPD for a rise/fall in sales for YOY numbers. Will add it in. :)

Edit:
Easter 2012 was April 8, so the gift-buying would've come in the April month (week before Easter), whereas it fell in the March month this time around. Could lead to a YOY increase (or lessened YOY decrease) for March, then.
I've found the claim dubious in the past, and some of my perspective was colored by my own experience. I'd not seen anyone think of Easter as a gift-giving holiday.

As my children have gotten older, however, I definitely see grandparents using it for an opportunity to send something. And even my wife has taken the opportunity to give a very small gift.

It doesn't rise to the level of a video game gift in our particular family, but I could definitely see that happening in other families.
 
I get the feeling a lot of people will be surprised by Wii U numbers.

Surprised at how low they'll be? ;p

Seriously though, it does have Lego City, Monster Hunter, and Easter going for it, but I don't think it will completely save it. I still see it being under 100k.
 
We already know the software figures for the UK in March. They were significantly better than January or February. Whether that translates into decent hardware or not...
 
We already know the software figures for the UK in March. They were significantly better than January or February. Whether that translates into decent hardware or not...

Across the board, or is the discussion still just about Wii U?
 
[360] 300K
[3DS] 220K
[PS3] 270K
[PSV] 55K
[WIU] 85K

Why do people continue to predict the 3DS beating the PS3 every month? Aside from the holiday season, it doesn't seem to ever happen.
 
WiiU only improved at the end of the month (anecdotally at least), Tomb raider and the GoW's seem to have helped the yoy figures look less depressing in the other weeks.

Okay, thanks. That's going to make for some interesting acronym discussions in the NPD thread. "GoW way under/overperformed." "No, it didn't. GoW was way over/under its predecessor." "No, not GoW, GoW!"

Edit:
Now we just need a Guild of Warcraft ...
 
Well, I think both GoWs underperformed compared to their predecessors anyway.

Sure but there wan't an equivalent release schedule last march.

This year you gave Tomb Raider, GOW, GoW, Bioshock, Simcity and Starcraft vs just Mass Effect as far as big time releases go.

Even "B Teir" selling stuff you have Army of 2, Walking dead shooter and Sniper this year vs just RE ORC last year.
 
Oh, I just meant that even with acronym confusion, I think the statements about them both will be the same anyway.

-----

Predictions:
[360] 270K
[3DS] 175K
[PS3] 235K
[PSV] 35K
[WIU] 65K

I don't really see Easter as a major shopping holiday; and even with the 5-week month March NPD seems to have often seen declines from February's 4-week month.

I'm also not convinced Lego City is going to move substantial numbers of systems and that Pikachu will stop the handheld tide from ebbing.

/debbiedowner

[360] 320 K
[3DS] 200 K
[PS3] 275 K
[WiiU] 72K
[PSV]41 K
Need to fix your formatting I think.
 
[360] 285K
[3DS] 200K
[PS3] 240K
[PSV] 37K
[WIU] 81K

You're forgetting that Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon released in March.
 
Other March's have had Easter and/or major games before and not seen rises in either their monthly total, their weekly average, or both despite the 5-week month which benefits March over February.

March/February (total)
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March/February (weekly average)
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Releases, etc. in the tracking period that I could find:
2009 Feb: Killzone 2, Street Fighter IV
2009 Mar: Easter, Halo Wars, Resident Evil 5, Nintendo DSi, Pokemon Platinum

2010 Feb: Bioshock 2, Heavy Rain, Wii shortages?
2010 Mar: Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver, FFXIII, God of War III, Just Cause 2

2011 Feb: Killzone 3, MvC3
2011 Mar: Pokemon Black/White, Dragon Age II, Crysis 2

2012 Feb: FFXIII-2, Resident Evil: Revelations
2012 Mar: Mass Effect 3, Kid Icarus, Resident Evil: ORC
 
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