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[Skyzard]

Seems like 20K is the new baseline. Not bad!

Hopefully the first price drop will have even more effect world wide what with most of japan having a 3ds already.

Extremely unlikely to discontinue it, that's just plain wishful thinking from some atm. Opportunity costs... By that logic, Nintendo should certainly discontinue Wii U and focus on games on 3DS for 2014, so not to miss out on all those opportunities lol, ignoring what they'd be throwing away.

 

[FoneBone]

Until the Otaku market abandons the system for something else the Vita will find a home in Japan for years to come.

I agree with that - I do expect it to keep getting niche games for the foreseeable future, even if Sony pulls the plug.

 

[BronsonLee]

Lol at Vita going anywhere

 

[metalslimer]

Until the Otaku market abandons the system for something else the Vita will find a home in Japan for years to come.

That's why I don't really think the system will be officially discontinued by Sony. I think retailers will pretty much abandon Vita when Durango and PS4 launch in the west while Vita lingers on the shelves for a few years in Japan.

Seems like 20K is the new baseline. Not bad!

Hopefully the first price drop will have even more effect world wide what with most of japan having a 3ds already.

Extremely unlikely to discontinue it, that's just plain wishful thinking from some atm.

Now thats some wishful thinking

 

[Skyzard]

Now thats some wishful thinking

No...you.

20K seems doable, what was the last new game? We haven't seen anything, yet managed to stay around 20K except when there were shortages.

oh right golden week. meh. don't think it affects Vita that much.

 

[Man God]

I think it's going to take a pit stop next week at around 13,500 on its way to 9k town for the next few weeks into early summer.

 

[Father_Brain]

Hopefully the first price drop will have even more effect world wide what with most of japan having a 3ds already.

Even Sony doesn't believe that will happen, based on their FY13 forecast. You are now officially more optimistic about your hardware of choice than the manufacturer of that hardware; congrats.

 

[Man God]

Also the 3DS hasn't even caught the PSP yet let alone the DS which is much closer to the actual saturation point of the Japanese market.

 

[TheChaos0]

No...you.

20K seems doable, what was the last new game? We haven't seen anything, yet managed to stay around 20K except when there were shortages.

It's doable... I'm not too sure it'll become the baseline with the current release schedule.

I think it's going to take a pit stop next week at around 13,500 on its way to 9k town for the next few weeks into early summer.

Too early for 9k, it'll stick around above that for longer in my opinion.

 

[metalslimer]

No...you.

20K seems doable, what was the last new game? We haven't seen anything, yet managed to stay around 20K except when there were shortages.

It's golden week and it essentially remained flat. If you honestly think the baseline is 20k, you should check past history. And the release lineup is empty the next few weeks.

 

[ArtHands]

No...you.

20K seems doable, what was the last new game? We haven't seen anything, yet managed to stay around 20K except when there were shortages.

oh right golden week. meh. don't think it affects Vita that much.

There is no shortage since more than a week ago if I am not wrong

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Hypothetical, will Sony really be happy selling at maximum 3 million a year? Or is the opportunity costs for a multibillion dollar company like Sony too high that if Vita drops significantly below that to be worth it. I mean what exactly does Sony get out of Vita in the end of this. I could completely understand if they planned on making another dedicated handheld but there is no way they try again in a dying market. Wouldn't it make more sense to take that money and spend it on hypothetically much more profitable potential PS4 games than blowing money trying to find retailers to stock a niche indie device.

I think they will pulla gamecube in the sense they would want to make sure they are profiting from it rather than trying to invest in it.

I still stand by that Sony will not let Nintendo have a monopoly of the handheld market but its pretty close to that now.

Yeah, opportunity cost (along with retail shelf space) is one of the main reasons why I expect it to be permanently discontinued within a year.

Lol wut?

Didn't Sony just predict it will sell 5 million with PSP for the 2013 fiscal year?Why would it be discontinued within the year?

And like the PS3 the Wii U can turn into a much more attractive system,

The difference it that the PS3 was able to get third party support to make it the attractive system it is today. WiiU seems to have none.

especially with Nintendo first-party bonanza behind it - in the long run it will do good (you can bookmark this and call me out later), it's just the super-rocky start of it that was surprising

I am sure the gamecube had the Nintendo first-party bonanza behind it too. How much did the GC do LTD in Japan? 4.5 million. I don't think it will do anywhere near that bad, but I do see it struggling to reach PS3 LTD. Somewhere in between like 7 million seems reasonable.

Don't forget that those PS3 numbers were from a pre-smartphone/table time; it's not a quite valid comparison I think since so much has changed since. I could be wrong with this, but if so then I want someone to convince me why

Why would smartphones effect home console sales? This makes no sense what so ever, as those devices are mainly used on the go. You could argue tablets as its some kind of substitute (still in the most general sense), but that hasn't really effected ps3 or 360 sales. The only reason it may be effecting WiiU sales is because the gamepad looks like a cheap one.

 

[Skyzard]

It's golden week and it essentially remained flat. If you honestly think the baseline is 20k, you should check past history.

Sorry, just caught up with that GW holiday stuff. Seems like it could bring things down to 18 next week but hardly reason to expect huge drops. Since like Nintendo is traditionally more affected by GW...? By traditionally, I mean last year.

There is no shortage since more than a week ago if I am not wrong

Haha okay, guess we can only use that excuse for the 14k Wifi model in stock yes?

Even Sony doesn't believe that will happen, based on their FY13 forecast. You are now officially more optimistic about your hardware of choice than the manufacturer of that hardware; congrats.

That might be, but don't they have to be more worried about negatives so not to make their predictions seem bad like last time?

 

[Man God]

I think the whole claim of shortages (on some of the new colors in certain stores) gave Vita admirers false hope that there was a large pent up demand for the Vita that was going unsatisfied.

There probably isn't, but stranger things have happened.

 

[BronsonLee]

It's golden week and it essentially remained flat. If you honestly think the baseline is 20k, you should check past history.

Everything non-Nintendo remained flat, though. Wii U got a what could be called a bump, and 3DS got a nice boost. Golden Week is best for Nintendo really.

 

[metalslimer]

I think they will pulla gamecube in the sense they would want to make sure they are profiting from it rather than trying to invest in it.

I still stand by that Sony will not let Nintendo have a monopoly of the handheld market but its pretty close to that now.

The gamecube brought Nintendo multiple million sellers and games that sold 5 million+. It's a stretch to think any Vita game will ever reach 2 million and it most likely won't be a Sony game. Like you said, Nintendo essentially has a monopoly with Vita out and the only things being announced for Vita are on PS3/PSP as well

Everything non-Nintendo remained flat, though. Wii U got a what could be called a bump, and 3DS got a nice boost. Golden Week is best for Nintendo really.

I'm not saying it's going back below 10k in the next 2 weeks (although that certainly is a possibility), but it's not staying at 20k based on the last few weeks.

 

[H_Prestige]

This is what happens when you releae two NSMB games in the same year with a small gap between - that was so dumb and too much of a overreaction from Nintendo; even people like me who love Mario games thought they oversaturated the market. I mean they are still good games, but don't waste your big guns just like that

It has nothing to do with NSMB2...

NSMBU is not selling because nobody needs it. Nintendo needed to make it stand out from the Wii version that people already have. The game has an inherently low appeal.

 

[Father_Brain]

I still stand by that Sony will not let Nintendo have a monopoly of the handheld market but its pretty close to that now.

I think you kinda undermined your own point there. We can certainly debate whether Nintendo will have a literal monopoly on the current-gen dedicated handheld market a year from now or merely a de facto monopoly, but either way, they're going to have a monopoly.

 

[serplux]

I think you kinda undermined your own point there. We can certainly debate whether Nintendo will have a literal monopoly on the current-gen dedicated handheld market a year from now or merely a de facto monopoly, but either way, they're going to have a monopoly.

Neo Geo X will always exist.

 

[electroplankton]

I think they will pulla gamecube in the sense they would want to make sure they are profiting from it rather than trying to invest in it.

I still stand by that Sony will not let Nintendo have a monopoly of the handheld market but its pretty close to that now.

At least Nintendo could profit on their first party titles on GC. I mean, hardware sold poorly but Mario Kart sold 8 million units, Super Smash Bros. even more.

Sony doesn't have a line-up for Vita currently, outside Killzone, Tearaway and Invizimals. And third parties are lacking, so they don't even get much royalties.

Lol wut?

Didn't Sony just predict it will sell 5 million with PSP for the 2013 fiscal year?Why would it be discontinued within the year?

3-3.5 million units are sold by platforms during the end of the lifecycle, close to discontinuation.

 

[metalslimer]

3-3.5 million units are sold by platforms during the end of the lifecycle, close to discontinuation

And it won't even sell 3-3.5 million in the end. With those kind of numbers they are projecting it makes me wonder if they even plan to drop the price in the west or just ride it out.

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

I find the discovery phase by new sales-agers year after year that Golden Week exists endlessly amusing.

 

[Father_Brain]

And it won't even sell 3-3.5 million in the end. With those kind of numbers they are projecting it makes me wonder if they even plan to drop the price in the west or just ride it out.

Yeah, as I said in the Sony results thread, I still think an NA/EU price cut this year is more likely than not, but I no longer think it's anything close to a foregone conclusion.

 

[Nekki]

Seems like 20K is the new baseline. Not bad!

Hopefully the first price drop will have even more effect world wide what with most of japan having a 3ds already.

Extremely unlikely to discontinue it, that's just plain wishful thinking from some atm. Opportunity costs... By that logic, Nintendo should certainly discontinue Wii U and focus on games on 3DS for 2014, so not to miss out on all those opportunities lol, ignoring what they'd be throwing away.

But.. that's exactly what Nintendo has been doing.

Also if at this time in the lifetime of the console, Wii U is still posting numbers similar to Vita, then people will start talking about discontinuing it as well (some even do right now, tho not on this thread).

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

The gamecube brought Nintendo multiple million sellers and games that sold 5 million+. It's a stretch to think any Vita game will ever reach 2 million and it most likely won't be a Sony game. Like you said, Nintendo essentially has a monopoly with Vita out and the only things being announced for Vita are on PS3/PSP as well

True. Software wise the gamecube was leagues ahead of the Vita. I guess the best they can hope for is not to incur any significant losses form it.

3-3.5 million units are sold by platforms during the end of the lifecycle, close to discontinuation.

He said within the year thats why I was asking.

I think you kinda undermined your own point there. We can certainly debate whether Nintendo will have a literal monopoly on the current-gen dedicated handheld market a year from now or merely a de facto monopoly, but either way, they're going to have a monopoly.

No, even as insignificant as the Vita is compared to the 3DS is still stopping it from getting all games and performing even better. If Vita did not exist I am sure the 3DS would be doing much better and PSP owners will eventually all migrate to the 3DS if they want a gaming handheld. Theres a subtle difference. Is it worth it for Sony? I'm not sure but theres definitely a chance for some success.

 

[ascii42]

I wouldn't be shocked at all if Bend's next game gets a PS3 port or ends up DD-only.

Given that both PSP Syphon Filters got PS2 ports (along with a lot of other PSP games), that wouldn't be very surprising.

 

[FoneBone]

Given that both PSP Syphon Filters got PS2 ports (along with a lot of other PSP games), that wouldn't be very surprising.

Almost all of their PSP-to-PS2 ports were a year or so late, though. If they announce Bend's game as multiplatform from the outset, that'd say something else.

 

[ascii42]

Almost all of their PSP-to-PS2 ports were a year or so late, though. If they announce Bend's game as multiplatform from the outset, that'd say something else.

Ah, right, or if Bend's next game hits the PS3 before, say, Uncharted:GA.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Why is there a 70-80k difference between Famitsu and MC for VITA hardware sales?

There 3DS, Wii U and Wii numbers are almost a match but the Vita/PSP and PS3 numbers are so low. Makes me wonder the credibility of both of them.

 

[Nibel]

I find the discovery phase by new sales-agers year after year that Golden Week exists endlessly amusing.

Do you know much about Japanese culture? You seem to be an expert

 

[Father_Brain]

No, even as insignificant as the Vita is compared to the 3DS is still stopping it from getting all games and performing even better. If Vita did not exist I am sure the 3DS would be doing much better and PSP owners will eventually all migrate to the 3DS if they want a gaming handheld. Theres a subtle difference. Is it worth it for Sony? I'm not sure but theres definitely a chance for some success.

I do see your point, but given the platform's even poorer prospects outside Japan, what that comes down to is whether Sony will keep the platform alive in some capacity solely for the likes of Acquire, MMV, Compile Heart et al. (I name the niche publishers because the larger pubs still supporting Vita - Namco Bandai, Koei Tecmo, Sega - have already hedged their bets by spurning Vita exclusivity, as have most of the indie devs supporting it in the West.)

 

[electroplankton]

No, even as insignificant as the Vita is compared to the 3DS is still stopping it from getting all games and performing even better. If Vita did not exist I am sure the 3DS would be doing much better and PSP owners will eventually all migrate to the 3DS if they want a gaming handheld. Theres a subtle difference. Is it worth it for Sony? I'm not sure but theres definitely a chance for some success.

It's likely that those Vita users wouldn't choose 3DS anyway. Falcom, Compile Heart, Gust, Nippon Ichi, Persona and Hatsune Miku fanbases are peculiar of Sony ecosystems. They would go PS4.

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

Do you know much about Japanese culture? You seem to be an expert

I totally wouldn't have made all those outlandish predictions if I'd know it was golden week! Honest!

 

[sechsterangriff]

So if the Vita somehow still manages to sell above expectations next week, does this mean that we finally ran out of excuses and moving goal posts?

 

[Alrus]

Why is there a 70-80k difference between Famitsu and MC for VITA hardware sales?

There 3DS, Wii U and Wii numbers are almost a match but the Vita/PSP and PS3 numbers are so low. Makes me wonder the credibility of both of them.

Trackers use extrapolation based on a sample of shops afaik. The math they do is probably a bit different and their sample probably differ too, so that explains the differences we see sometimes.

Both trackers have overestimated certain titles/hardware in the past, that doesn't mean they're not credible.

 

[metalslimer]

So if the Vita somehow still manages to sell above expectations next week, does this mean that we finally ran out of excuses and moving goal posts?

Speaking of moving the goalposts? It's kind of sad how low expectations are that even 20k is considered great news. But if you actually want a view of how people view Vita you would see that most people overestimated vita in april so i dont know where the goal post was moved anywhere but down

 

[Bruno MB]

Since I don't think it has been posted yet, here is Dengeki Top 50:

http://translate.google.com/transla....dengeki.com/elem/000/000/636/636167/&act=url

 

[Instro]

Dp

 

[Instro]

So if the Vita somehow still manages to sell above expectations next week, does this mean that we finally ran out of excuses and moving goal posts?

What would be "above expectations"? I mean the system dropped well below 20k a few weeks ago so the floor is clearly lower than where it currently stands. Either way these are very poor numbers.

 

[sechsterangriff]

Speaking of moving the goalposts? It's kind of sad how low expectations are that even 20k is considered great news. But if you actually want a view of how people view Vita you would see that most people overestimated vita in april so i dont know where the goal post was moved anywhere but down

That goal post was moved many months ago.

 

[Spieler Eins]

Speaking of moving the goalposts? It's kind of sad how low expectations are that even 20k is considered great news.

I remember when Vita was still fresh and people were calling doom of the Vita for whenever it would finally go below 20k. But standards have apparently lowered significantly after it did even more terrible for like a year. So... let's celebrate Vita!...?

 

[Father_Brain]

That might be, but don't they have to be more worried about negatives so not to make their predictions seem bad like last time?

If you want to believe that their strategy is to underestimate and overdeliver, go right ahead; not like any of us can prove otherwise. But Occam's Razor would tell us that what they say they expect to sell is what they expect to sell.

 

[metalslimer]

If you want to believe that their strategy is to underestimate and overdeliver, go right ahead; not like any of us can prove otherwise. But Occam's Razor would tell us that what they say they expect to sell is what they expect to sell.

Looking at last year, Yoshida must have been flabbergasted when he realized the lack of support Vita had and how much he would have to cut forecasts. Vita is the perfect example to end the delusional idea that 3rd parties just hated Nintendo. Even Sony with their much better 3rd party relations cannot get force major support on to Vita. Try as you might, if 3rd parties deem your platform not worthwhile it is hard to change that notion, and even then Vita's Japanese support was never as bad as wii u which says something.

 

[Skyzard]

If you want to believe that their strategy is to underestimate and overdeliver, go right ahead; not like any of us can prove otherwise. But Occam's Razor would tell us that what they say they expect to sell is what they expect to sell.

Considering they didn't take their bonus either it's not out of the question that they are working to improve the company's recognition/image but yeah, I accept they might have lost confidence.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

KH HD over 200k yesss. Does that make it the second best selling Hd port (not counting P4G)?

 

[Mpl90]

Looking at last year, Yoshida must have been flabbergasted when he realized the lack of support Vita had and how much he would have to cut forecasts. Vita is the perfect example to end the delusional idea that 3rd parties just hated Nintendo. Even Sony with their much better 3rd party relations cannot get force major support on to Vita. Try as you might, if 3rd parties deem your platform not worthwhile it is hard to change that notion, and even then Vita's Japanese support was never as bad as wii u which says something.

It's pretty easy to have a better support than Wii U in Japan. Vita has games, Wii U just one, and it's releasing in two weeks.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Trackers use extrapolation based on a sample of shops afaik. The math they do is probably a bit different and their sample probably differ too, so that explains the differences we see sometimes.

Both trackers have overestimated certain titles/hardware in the past, that doesn't mean they're not credible.

But why both are giving approx similar numbers for Nintendo hardware but showing huge difference for others?

Do they get these numbers officially from Nintendo?

 

[Nekki]

So if the Vita somehow still manages to sell above expectations next week, does this mean that we finally ran out of excuses and moving goal posts?

No matter how you look at it, the situation is still bad anyways. The same as with the "10k threshold" of old.

 

[Bruno MB]

KH HD over 200k yesss. Does that make it the second best selling Hd port (not counting P4G)?

If we don't include Persona 4 Golden (I don't know if it should), the best selling HD port or remaster is Monster Hunter Portable 3rd HD with over 400.000 units sold, then Monster Hunter 3G HD with slightly over 200.000 units sold (current LTD must be around 215.000) and in third position Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 ReMIX. I think Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 ReMIX will eventually outsell Monster Hunter 3G HD.

Now the question is, how well will Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD do? In my opinion it shouldn't have any trouble becoming the best selling HD remaster.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

If we don't include Persona 4 Golden (I don't know if it should), the best selling HD port or remaster is Monster Hunter Portable 3rd HD with over 400.000 units sold, then Monster Hunter 3G HD with slightly over 200.000 units sold (current LTD must be around 215.000) and in third position Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 ReMIX. I think Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 ReMIX will eventually outsell Monster Hunter 3G HD.

Now the question is, how well will Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD do? In my opinion it shouldn't have any trouble becoming the best selling HD remaster.

Thats great news. See SE there is a massive Kh audience on the PS3 waiting for your games but instead you decided to place them on handhelds.

I reckon FFX HD should be able to do 400k-500k both SKU's added together. If GT6 is on PS4 that could be PS3's last 500k game right?