Analyst: If Xbox One Tanks, It Could Be Microsoft's Last Console

I think it's better for the industry to be honest.

Sony and Nintendo have a better aproach for consoles

and then microsoft will focus only on pc games...

I think it will be great...

Microsoft did their contribution making improvements on online...
 
Every single piece of data we have suggests they are in for a rough time.

Fifa pack-in panic move.
Sony having 3:1 in pre-orders.
MS having a small launch and pretending there is no supply issues.
MS not having a concise message for direction.
The atmosphere across any hardcore gaming circle leaning heavily in the favour of Sony.

There is more but I'm on my iPad and hate typing with it. I don't see how a rational person can honestly think MS is in prime position gong into this next generation at all. Hate to break it to you and MS but I highly doubt this casual leaning is going to save the division.


There were tons of warning signs pre Wii U launch, how the "Wii" brand held no sway, how the name was confusing, how all the casuals moved on to tablets and smartphones, the very audience that made the Wii popular was gone but all of those were droned out as people put fingers into their ears and shouted "lalala" and refused to even entertain the thought that the console would not take off. It was a Nintendo console launching with Mario, it was going to succeed!

Even more warning signs have been present with the Xbox One and the pre order numbers ive both heard personally and seen various reports online that it is absolutely not looking good, not a single one of them has ever described them as good or even equal to Sony's.

The very deal with EA over FIFA is unprecedented, i do not know of a single console that has launched with a major free third party game. It is a gigantic panic button being pressed as pre orders in Europe are likely abysmal.

The various 180s being done is not because some fans wrote a petition online, or that MS visited GAF or IGN boards or GameFAQs boards, its them seeing pre order numbers and hitting the panic button again.

I do not believe for a second the Xbox One will do 360 numbers, if that is "tanking" then yeah it will tank. But overall i predict it will do better than the Wii U and OG Xbox, the product is overall too handicapped to do well worldwide. US alone cannot carry it and make it a market leader


One company is bragging about over a million pre orders, the other one is doing 180s on their policies, paying EA god knows how much money in hopes to get pre order numbers up. Come 6-7 months from now, do not be surprised how the sales of these consoles are looking. It is not some people online being mean to Microsoft and predicted bad things to them, the evidence and hints are all around you
 
I remember people like you being happy when Sega left the console space as well. Just as pathetic now as it was then.

Sega actually WAS innovative.

They made a shitload of software.
The hardware was terrific and sold for a great price.
They even had online play that worked well, and was free.

And no, I wasn't happy when Sega died. I was there for 9/9/99 and had the system long after the PS2 killed it.
 
Theorically I think its a possibility but still, Microsoft is stubborn quite like no others, I don't see them going "ok bye" unless everything sucks.

HOWEVER, they might be in need of a shake up since they can't seem to make decent products since some time. There is some change needed in Microsoft and especially a vision change. After they shit phones, surface, mediocre windows 8 and now the Xbox One also failing to hit people, there clearly is a problem with Microsoft and they need reajust their products in line with their customers 'cause they are apparently off track!
 
how would this be any different to Sega dropping out? Or Atari? MS isn't special, if it doesn't make the return it expects, it may pull out.

And if MS does, it doesn't mean the industry will crash. There may be others waiting to invest but unwilling to make a current move due to the crowded market. An incumbent dropping out may be just the impetus required to get fresh blood in.
 
I think it's better for the industry to be honest.

Sony and Nintendo have a better aproach for consoles

and then microsoft will focus only on pc games...

I think it will be great...

Microsoft did their contribution making improvements on online...

Not so much for Xbox fans who enjoy the games and ecosystem in general, but you know. Fuck them, amirite?


Sega actually WAS innovative.

They made a shitload of software.
The hardware was terrific and sold for a great price.
They even had online play that worked well, and was free.

And no, I wasn't happy when Sega died. I was there for 9/9/99 and had the system long after the PS2 killed it.

It's funny how much respect Sony superfans have for Sega NOW. Sure as hell didn't seem to be the case back then when the DC was referred to as the "shitcast" and they were pissed that Code Veronica was exclusive to it.
 
The console isn't going to tank. These analysts need to stop, and so do these threads.

This.

Analyst say a lot of things. Some of those thing are based on facts, and others based on opinion because someone asked them a question. Can these threads please stop.
 
I don't think either of them will, all I said was there was more chance Sony would in my opinion.

The smartest thing Sony have did so far is make PS+ compulsory for online gaming, they may also want to consider not giving away so many games for free.

Wait, why? Building a customer base with good will has been proven to be more profitable in the long run (looks at apple). The problem with Sony is that they screwed up the PS3 big time, which from seeing this launch does not seem to be happening again. For all we know the PS4 could (very big if) go beyond or equal to ps2 numbers.
 
There were tons of warning signs pre Wii U launch, how the "Wii" brand held no sway, how the name was confusing, how all the casuals moved on to tablets and smartphones, the very audience that made the Wii popular was gone but all of those were droned out as people put fingers into their ears and shouted "lalala" and refused to even entertain the thought that the console would not take off. It was a Nintendo console launching with Mario, it was going to succeed!

Even more warning signs have been present with the Xbox One and the pre order numbers ive both heard personally and seen various reports online that it is absolutely not looking good, not a single of them has ever described them as good or even equal to Sony's.

The very deal with EA over FIFA is unprecedented, i do not know of a single console that has launched with a major free third party game. It is a gigantic panic button being pressed as pre orders in Europe are likely abysmal.

The various 180s being done is not because some fans wrote a petition online, or that MS visited GAF or IGN boards or GameFAQs boards, its them seeing pre order numbers and hitting the panic button again.

I do not believe for a second the Xbox One will do 360 numbers, if that is "tanking" then yeah it will tank. But overall i predict it will do better than the Wii U and OG Xbox, the product is overall too handicapped to do well worldwide. US alone cannot carry it and make it a market leader

Comparing the Wii U launch to Xbox?

Please...Night and day...MS has incredible hardware, and software coming out its ears and much improved live with dedicated servers and more importantly huge 3rd party support new 1st party ip and lots and lots of GAMES.

No comparison


Not to mention many of the millions of the wii owners pretty much had their machine in their closet when the new one launched (as they bought it for the temporary fascination) where as 360is still going strong in many homes of those who own one
 
I say that's probable. Many of the shareholders already see the Xbox division as a waste of money and a distraction for the company. The real question is how likely is it to tank? I'd say not very.

I will slit my throat if apple makes a console, fuuuuu new one every year.

That's a bit extreme, no?
 
Think how many less they are going to sell if they can avoid the RRoD issue.

/bought 3. Go eff yourself, Microsoft
//buying both XB1 and PS4 day one
 
I will slit my throat if apple makes a console, fuuuuu new one every year.

7glMk3w.gif
 
The console has always been a Trojan horse for MS to get into consumers living rooms and deliver content and subscription services. That trend is ever more present with the Xbox One.

I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Xbox evolves into a cheaper, pure set top box type of device next generation, with more of a casual gaming influence (if any). I'm guessing that will depend on how profitable the games side of the business (including XBox Live subs) continues to be in the next few years.

Competition is good IMO, so I think MS withdrawing from the games business will ultimately be very bad for consumers. Ditto if Sony took a shellacking this generation and decided to call it quits (Unlikely, but possible).
 
The Vita was well into R&D when smartphones gobbled up the intended market for it. Sony is doing what is financially responsible with it - slow profitable burn knowing they can't take over the market with it and therefore avoiding risks. I doubt we see another handheld from them and they'll instead move on to smartphone gaming for portable services (likely cloud based).

The home console line however is a tent pole product for them. They aren't scrapping their TV line where they've lost way more money and marketshare than the Playstation line, and with fewer positives on the horizon. Their current CEO was hired explicitly because of how he handheld the home console division post-Kutaragi. He's a Playstation man first and foremost.

If J Allard is the next CEO of Microsoft you might be on to something, but until then their commitment to the home console sector isn't remotely the same as Sony's.

So what is going on with the 3DS then?
 
In many ways, this COULD be the end of the line for consoles. At some point, it will be easier to give everyone a thin client machine, and have servers be the real consoles.

Services like Gaikai and OnLive will really take off once we get great broadband penetration in the US.

Every fucking time, I'm American and every time I see this line of thinking I want to scream fuck off, US does not equal the WORLD.
 
Comparing the Wii U launch to Xbox?

Please...Night and day...MS has incredible hardware, and software coming out its ears and much improved live with dedicated servers and more importantly huge 3rd party support new 1st party ip and lots and lots of GAMES.

No comparison


Not to mention many of the millions of the wii owners pretty much had their machine in their closet when the new one launched (as they bought it for the temporary fascination) where as 360is still going strong in many homes of those who own one


You are right, there is no comparison, because i never compared the hardware or software between the two.

The comparison is in the overall mind share surrounding both products and a hint at how well they will actually sell. The pre order numbers for the Xbox One are bad enough that they went back on much of their original vision, and enough to fork out who knows how much money to bundle FIFA in Europe.

That is not a sign of a platform that is ready to storm out of the gate from a sales perspective.
 
If xbox one tanked and microsoft left the console space

I would be sooo happy

These posts are so freaking ignorant.

1. Competition is good.
2. The XBox brand has brought us many great series
3. Such a huge brand "tanking" would lead to a loss of many jobs
4. Such a petty comment.
 
It's funny how much respect Sony superfans have for Sega NOW. Sure as hell didn't seem to be the case back then when the DC was referred to as the "shitcast" and they were pissed that Code Veronica was exclusive to it.

I was a sega fan loooong before sony even hinted at a playstation. I had a master system in my house, a genesis was the first system i bought with my own money. I bought my saturn at launch as well, even with the surprise release.

These posts are so freaking ignorant.

1. Competition is good.
2. The XBox brand has brought us many great series
3. Such a huge brand "tanking" would lead to a loss of many jobs
4. Such a petty comment.

Competition is good when the competition actually CREATES something of value to the consumer. Money hatting exclusives doesn't count.
 
Their initial direction for the console just showed how far out of touch they were with their customers. They should have known from the reaction to the way adverts have been wedged into the 360 dashboard, that they'd pretty much used up their favours and needed to come up with a pro-consumer choice to regain some ground.

I wouldn't be sad to see them go at this point (I type this inbetween rounds of CoD on the 360...), since the direction seems to be fixed spec PC appliances, there are plenty of companies who could step in.
 
Wait, why? Building a customer base with good will has been proven to be more profitable in the long run (looks at apple). The problem with Sony is that they screwed up the PS3 big time, which from seeing this launch does not seem to be happening again. For all we know the PS4 could (very big if) go beyond or equal to ps2 numbers.

What do Apple give you for free? They are known for being expensive.

It would be great if the PS4 could sell like the PS2 and there would be absolutely no danger of Sony pulling out of the market then.
 
It's funny how much respect Sony superfans have for Sega NOW. Sure as hell didn't seem to be the case back then when the DC was referred to as the "shitcast" and they were pissed that Code Veronica was exclusive to it.

I'm about to blow your mind ... they aren't (necessarily) the same people.
 
yeah, whenever an analyst thread pops up I can't help but think about this graph:

ProjectedConsoleChart_v1_460x323.gif


it's obvious that any of the new systems tanks, it could do heavy damage to the its manufacturer. Sony isn't in a good situation at this moment, and Nintendo is having a hard time with Wii-U so, in the end if XB1 tanks, yes, of course, it could make MS think about dropping the ball in the videogames market, but I do not see it happening.

by the way, I cannot believe people here wishing for MS to quit console gaming, narrow minds..
 
If Microsoft Goes The Game Industry Goes Also. How many threads will be made though? -__-

How do you figure that? Not only are there other companies who would probably gladly take their place but there are so many other platforms already in existence: Sony, Nintendo, PC, tablets and mobile, etc. The industry would most certainly not die if Microsoft left it.
 
With how Microsoft has been handling the console business, I wouldn't doubt that they abandon it over time. Since at least 2000, they've tried to come out with products to compete with companies, and have not seen success. This is because a lot of their strategy is to attempt to make products that are just like their competitors but slightly different. I feel like the Xbox is the only one that worked- the original being a machine targeting PC gamers and the same PlayStation market in order to try to take away from Sony controlling the living room (and hoping to gain some Nintendo gamers with the acquisition of Rare's IPs).

The Xbox since then has been about trying to control the gaming audience and creating allegiance. Xbox LIVE, timed exclusives, moneyhat services, and even Kinect were attempts to control the audience into keeping with Xbox. Look at Xbox One- the initial ideas scream this, but especially the sharing plan and trying to add more value with LIVE after PS+ came around.

By creating this allegiance to Xbox, the plan seemed to be keeping an audience away from Sony and Nintendo long enough to get them out of gaming. What we're seeing though is people tired of the Xbox brand and policies. The allegiance isn't as strong as they would like it to be. This is why they 180'd-- they saw the allegiance they expected to have waving and crashing in some instances.

I actually see at this point in time a huge potential for them to back out of the market if sales are down, and move towards 3rd party game development with a focus on PC rather than console gaming creating a client like Steam and optional streaming media box (i.e. like Steambox). Costs would be drastically down on hardware, and the Xbox name would continue on but in a different light. They might then focus on creating Halo for PlayStation and more Rare titles for Nintendo, or keep everything PC exclusive to their client.

TL;DR: Microsoft will change tune if they bomb, but not leave the industry-- creating something akin to Steam and Steambox.
 
1. Nintendo is still there, they could make a new console in a couple of years.
2. Not many stayed on the Xbox, the remaining Halo and Forza would still make money on the PC.

More competition is good. Always.

And sure...Halo and Forza are the only exclusive series they have...yikes, I'm not getting into that tired argument again.
 
Honestly, whether or not the XBone is a success or not, I think it's going to be the last console generation. Same with the PS4.

I just have this feeling it will be. Better enjoy them while they last.
 
You are right, there is no comparison, because i never compared the hardware or software between the two.

The comparison is in the overall mind share surrounding both products and a hint at how well they will actually sell. The pre order numbers for the Xbox One are bad enough that they went back on much of their original vision, and enough to fork out who knows how much money to bundle FIFA in Europe.

That is not a sign of a platform that is ready to storm out of the gate from a sales perspective.

I will agree that in general the mind share is not where they would like it with the hardcore, no doubt. It is not ready to storm, no but the hardcore will only sell the first 5-6 million for each console...after that...starting next year sometime, the long game starts. all this nonsense falls to the wayside and a new momentum will start as long as it delivers the experiences it is promising right now which are pretty substantial improvement over a successful product.
 
I've always said that if the industry goes from three major platforms to two, the most likely one to drop out is Microsoft. There are a lot of invested parties in MS who don't like the "devices & services" direction the company has taken under Ballmer. The new CEO is the devil we don't know, so the future of the entire Xbox division is uncertain in my opinion.
 
this will be the last generation of consoles for all these trashy companies and their unsustainable business models


handhelds are already burried, and now the console days are numbered, count them one by one

bV1K8Jf.jpg
TrKd9mS.png
 
What do Apple give you for free? They are known for being expensive.

It would be great if the PS4 could sell like the PS2 and there would be absolutely no danger of Sony pulling out of the market then.

Customer service that rivals anybody else in the tech industry. Free repairs for products that are out of warranty. They usually go beyond for the customer. I have had laptops replaced with new ones out of warranty, iphones fixed, when it was my fault that it broke, for free. I mean sure apple is expensive but when something happens they usually go beyond and help you. That is why I am fine with paying the premium for their devices.

Giving free games and showing that you are not greedy by putting core services behind a paywall is a great way to show that you are somewhat human and care just a bit about peoples money. Showing good will in anyway can just be the thing that wins over somebody.

this will be the last generation of consoles for all these trashy companies and their unsustainable business models


handhelds are already burried, and now the console days are numbered, count them one by one

bV1K8Jf.jpg
TrKd9mS.png

What does apple sell currently that has the same power as the ps3/xbox 360 for 250$? Oh... yeah.... nothing. NOw if they came into the market correct then I would give them a shot, but I do not see them doing this as of yet, nor any indication that they will either.
 
this will be the last generation of consoles for all these trashy companies and their unsustainable business models


handhelds are already burried, and now the console days are numbered, count them one by one

bV1K8Jf.jpg
TrKd9mS.png

You seem to take great excitement in this. . . have you always disliked gaming or just recently?
 
More competition is good. Always.

Not if the market doesn't have room for more than two opponents.

Realisticly, the Wii despite its success was never really a direct competitor to the PS3 & 360. If the Xbox steps aside Nintendo will have more room to expand, them making a high end machine would be less of a risk and more probable.

I'm sorry it's a tired argument and I'm not a Nintendo apologist or anything but they do have a tighter grasp on the industry because of their IPs. Gaming wise, a software only MS is more likely than a software only Nintendo.
 
this will be the last generation of consoles for all these trashy companies and their unsustainable business models

handhelds are already burried, and now the console days are numbered, count them one by one

"whatever the fuck console manufacturers are lining up for their trashy launch, nor do i have time to be a loyal supporter of some brand (other than apple, because apple has class, unlike ms and sony)." - Lunchbox, the richest man on NeoGAF, 2013
 
In many ways, this COULD be the end of the line for consoles. At some point, it will be easier to give everyone a thin client machine, and have servers be the real consoles.

Services like Gaikai and OnLive will really take off once we get great broadband penetration in the US.

So never then ;). Some locations will just never get great broadband... live in the mountains and you are F$%@$#@ as shit...
 
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