The Death Of Nintendo Has Been Greatly Under-Exaggerated
- Thread starter Tripon
- Start date
Glass Rebel
Member
Assuming that Mario, Mario Kart and Smash Bros. fail to reignite Wii U sales, my course of action if I was in Iwata's position would be following:
- Ride out 3DS success and kill off Wii U in 2015 or 2016. Pulling a console off the market is bad but I think having a near-dead one for a full generation is worse.
- In the next 2-3 years, build and slowly expand EAD America and EAD Europe.
- Get ready to release a sub-$250 console in the same year and a sub-$170 single-screen handheld one to two years later, both based on ARMv8-A (or later) that are cross-play and feature largely the same interfaces and input methods.
- Name them in a way that is 1. not confusing 2. clearly differentiates them from the Wii and DS lines 3. clearly links the home console and the handheld together and 4. has potential for longevity since it'll be the "brand" Nintendo will be using going forward.
- The two platforms and everything from UI to online system should be designed in a way that is both intuitive and feature-rich. They should work as separate devices but the process of making them work together should be seamless and without hassle. Part of that are a proper account system, cloud-saves, integration of the second screen etc.
- Get a strong line-up of software ranging from $0.99 to $39.99 with a good mix of first, third party and indie games, new and old IPs, across retail and digital.
- Release successor platforms every 3-4 years which build on the existing architecture and are fully backwards-compatible, sorta imitating Apple's approach to hardware.
jts
...hate me...
Imagine a Nintendo controller sold at a hefty price ($100) and a deal with Apple: games with its own section on the App Store, with the revenue cut reversed (70% Nintendo, 30% Apple), that controller would also accept Nintendo slim cartridges (sold at retail, no cut for Apple), and would provide necessary authentication for App Store Nintendo games.
Seems like an all-around nice deal for a side thing for Nintendo. This would not mean going 3rd party, but rather outsourcing the GPU, CPU, display and digital distribution to Apple.
Syph Medwes
Member
This guy needs to take a first year econ course.
Microsoft (gaming division I mean) would die off much sooner than Nintendo ever would. But I think they'll both be fine.
Microsoft (gaming division I mean) would die off much sooner than Nintendo ever would. But I think they'll both be fine.
Wolfenstein7
Banned
DOOOOOOOOOOMED
Oh boy, I didn't know this was already out. I like both Johns, but Siracusa knows much more about the videogames business. Siracusa also has generally a broader perspective on things, whereas Gruber tends to be more myopic and sees everything from the perspective of an Apple insider.
It doesn't matter for the first statement, but it affects whether or not the second was true.
Lordwindowlicker
Member
They can't? Honestly, you really don't know that. Just because it hasn't yet been proven doesn't mean that it's not a perfectly viable route to take.
As an avid gamer, I embraced my Wii with open arms and was able to play a lot of great games because of it.
You see, I think that this is utter nonsense. I thought that the Wii was stronger in some areas BECAUSE it was less expensive to develop for. It pushed developers to make some unique exclusive games, rather than just tossing it a port of Dead Space.
As for how the Wii U can compete, I think it's far too early to count them out. Only time will tell how things turn out, but you're putting WAY too much emphasis on "DA POWAH!!!", which I think is wildly misguided.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
The "3DS is 20% under DS therefore Nintendo is on the brink of financial ruin" has always baffled me. Oh look, they didn't manage to follow up one of the biggest hits of all time with an even greater hit. Is that bad? Sure, probably, from a business perspective. Does it literally represent a chance of financial devastation? If it does then something is massively fucked up somewhere. That's simply not reasonable expectations.
The WiiU is a more credible problem.
The WiiU is a more credible problem.
jts
...hate me...
Sorry I blanked out somehow. Wow. Then lets say 90% cut.
And Nintendo-accessory 3rd party games would get the same 70% that they get on the App Store, but 20% goes Nintendo, 10% Apple.
TylerDurden4321
Member
I think most here have a wrong picture of how a game controller for an iPhone might look like. Think more:
Also, I think good games are universal (maybe with early, ugly 3D graphics not so much, but that's an exception) and if a game is good, it will be good forever... like A Link to the Past or Super Metroid. Maybe they're hard for today's standards, but just make a different save-system for younger kids today, it will be good.
Also, I think good games are universal (maybe with early, ugly 3D graphics not so much, but that's an exception) and if a game is good, it will be good forever... like A Link to the Past or Super Metroid. Maybe they're hard for today's standards, but just make a different save-system for younger kids today, it will be good.
FrostuTheNinja
Member
Always considered $250 to be the console sweet spot.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I also think some people are misinterpreting the Nintendo-MS-Sony revenue graphs. Its not really that "Nintendo has the cash to weather the storm", its that "MS and Sony were absolutely hemorrhaging money for the better part of a decade and no-one was eager to call them 'dead'"
What? Nintendo reported only one year of operaring loss since they went public, that is last year, as far as I know.
Chinpoko_Master
Member
The 3DS is at the same point in its life cycle where the DS began to take off, so that gap is only going to widen. People also seem to forget that it's tracking far behind the GBA as well. When you consider that smartphones and tablets are only going to encroach further on their market, they're not in a good position to be in considering it's their only market enjoying some success right now.
RobFox64tm
Member
I think most here have a wrong picture of how a game controller for an iPhone might look like. Think more:
Also, I think good games are universal (maybe with early, ugly 3D graphics not so much, but that's an exception) and if a game is good, it will be good forever... like A Link to the Past or Super Metroid. Maybe they're hard for today's standards, but just make a different save-system for younger kids today, it will be good.
This looks terribly uncomfortable to use.
BigTnaples
Todd Howard's Secret GAF Account
Indeed, come November 15th-22nd, the WiiU and Nintendo have a real fight on their hands.
If not for the 3DS, they could be in trouble.
They need to concede defeat with the WiiU by next year if things have not turned around, and release a next gen console on par or better than the Xbox One and PS4.
If not for the 3DS, they could be in trouble.
They need to concede defeat with the WiiU by next year if things have not turned around, and release a next gen console on par or better than the Xbox One and PS4.
peanutbutterlatte
Member
I think most here have a wrong picture of how a game controller for an iPhone might look like. Think more:
Also, I think good games are universal (maybe with early, ugly 3D graphics not so much, but that's an exception) and if a game is good, it will be good forever... like A Link to the Past or Super Metroid. Maybe they're hard for today's standards, but just make a different save-system for younger kids today, it will be good.
That's not the problem. The problem is Nintendo set expectation for 2011 (16m) and missed them badly (13.5m) even with the price cut and apology/ambassador program etc. Without the cut it would have been disastrous. This was also their first year-long loss ever.
Then they set 2012 expectations (17.5m), later they revised them down (15m), then they still missed them again (and by more than 1m units). And again they stated sales were weaker than expected and games haven't generated enough momentum.
Now we're halfway into Nintendo's 2013 fiscal year and Nintendo set a goal of selling 18m 3DS (and 2DSs I suppose). Will they make it this time? Will they miss again and apologize again?
This is what looks bad.
NeonZ
Member
That would never work. They'd be launching a console comparable to the established one, months later, and with no userbase. They'd run into exactly the same problems they have right now getting ports of PS3/360 games for the Wii U. Trying to get into the middle of the generation with a standard system would never work for them.
TheGreatMightyPoo
Banned
And then those systems will already have been out and we're back at square one.
That makes absolutely no sense at all.
Then the question becomes: why would Apple ever agree to such an arrangement?
They wouldn't get ownership of Nintendo IP. They'd get a worse revenue split than any other software developer they work with. They'd set the terrible precedent of making an exception for one developer (why not EA? Why not Microsoft? Et cetera).
They've already added the controller APIs, without Nintendo. Third parties will already be shipping controllers, without Nintendo. They're already one of the largest companies in the world, without Nintendo.
What does Apple gain out of the relationship you describe? Most people arguing that Nintendo should go mobile are saying it's (potentially) for Nintendo's benefit, not Apple's.
Exterminieren
Banned
Why play a game they simply cannot win?
One of Wii U's problems is that it isn't differentiated enough from the competition, not that it's too different.
Yes they have. Hardware sales increased in all territories with the release of Pikmin 3 and you'll see the same thing happening with The Wonderful 101, Wii Play U, Wind Waker HD, Donkey Kong, Super Mario 3D World and Wii Fit U.
Software sells hardware at the end of the day. We saw this when the Wii U had a sales bump in March with the releases of Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate and Lego City Undercover.
You'd be a fool to think that the releases of those titles I've listed above, alongside the likes of Rayman Legends, CoD Ghosts, Assassin's Creed IV, Watch Dogs, Sonic Lost World and Mario and Sonic At The Olympics won't have a positive effect on hardware sales even before you start to take the $50 price cut into consideration.
The Wii U is going to have an installed userbase over 8m before the end of the year imo, the PS4 and One will both be under 2m and hopefully all this talk of the Wii U being 'd00med' will stop.
A bigger piece of a smaller pie. And they keep missing sales targets.
jts
...hate me...
I dunno, I'm just day dreaming.
But lets just call it a joint venture, have some cross stock buying etc. That would justify the exception (besides the whole Nintendo brand).
10% of huge popular expensive games. Smaller cut, same to higher revenue.
I'm just trying to figure out how this match made in heaven could work. Someone's gotta give anyway.
SwiftDeath
Member
This makes for a hilarious read
And the author thought this was probably a well-reasoned well-written article
And the author thought this was probably a well-reasoned well-written article
Ninja Scooter
Member
Pikmin causes hardware sales in Japan to increase for like a week before they came back down to earth, and didnt make a dent in Europe. W101 performed even worse in those territories. Where are you getting your North American Pikmin info from?
Warm Machine
Member
So you are saying they are going to sell more than 4 million machines in the next 4 months world wide?
Those are not system sellers or anywhere near as good as PSN/Steam/XBLA output.
Chinpoko_Master
Member
Don't you believe in miracles?
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
They can do that and make a profit for sure. But they probably wouldn't hit GC, and definitely not N64, level sales--much less actually challenge Sony or MS for first place again.
Core gamers (hardcore, but expecially the softcores who only by the big AAA franchises yet make up the bulk of game sales) mainly buy new consoles to get new games with new cutting edge graphics.
Nintendo can't get that level of sales with underpowered hardware that gets little but their first party games that only appeal to their diehard fans and kids.
And maybe that's fine as long as they can find ways to make big profits catering to that niche market. I can live without their games so I'm fine just doing without their games and skipping their consoles if they want to take that route.
Nintendo long ago lost touch with the mainstream western gamer audience, and I don't see how they ever regain that. And again, maybe they don't have to and can just make big bucks selling their games and hardware to kids and their long time fans.
Ninja Scooter
Member
Pure delusion. I think the figure I read somewhere was that Wii U would have to quadruple it's monthly sales, every month not just a bump here and there when an actual game is released, for the next 4 years just to match Gamecube's install base. The thing is dead in the water.
I think people don't seem to have an exact grasp of just how big of a flop the Wii U actually is. The fact that people keep using PS3 and 3DS as a comparison is enough to tell you that.
Get this man on Nintendo's board of directors! NOW!
TheSpaceBetween
Member
Yes. They'll snap their fingers and it will appear with a bunch of first and third party titles. In all seriousness though, they are already thinking about their next console. Do you think their hardware division just takes a few years off after they release a new product before they start planning for the next machine?
Exterminieren
Banned
Talking about challenging Sony and MS for first place is meaningless. Nintendo should be playing a different game to them. The fact that they're trying to throw themselves into their market is one of the biggest problems that Nintendo are facing.
The 2DS should represent Nintendo's future, not the Wii U.
The fact that you consider anyone who isn't the hardcore "niche" is illuminating. The true mass market successes (PS2, DS, 360 in its latter years) only achieved that because of that "niche".
The Wii U pretty much gave me that impression.
I love posts that say Nintendo CANNOT compete without bleeding edge tech, but then need to immediately dismiss the Wii as a "fad", like the pet rock or the chia pet.
And then this post goes on to imply that Nintendo can't even reach GameCube sales this gen, even though not one system seller has been released for the platform and the console went through the most anemic drought ever for a major video game manufacturer.
Amazing.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Most interesting thing about this article to me was finding out Ballmer is resigning. I didn't know. Holy shit.
profit is profit is profit is profit
It is a problem of human nature that is extremely noticeable on GAF: thinking that the majority of people think and act like you do.
Truthfact: The majority of gamers, even core gamers, do not give a shit about RAM or specs. They care about where they can play Madden or COD with their friends.
Plastic Iphone, Apple following Samsungs lead, they admitted defeat and lost!
Freezie KO
Banned
They're not doomed, dying, or dead, but it should be obvious by now that they need a major shake-up. Two failed launches, lack of interest from casuals, complaints of stagnation from the core, and constant apologies from the executives point to key problems in both hardware and software development.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
The kid market will always be there for them though.
I have a 3DS, but I don't play it much. I don't have much urge to game when out and about, and when I do, my iPhone is always in my pocket, and I often have my iPad with me as well. So that definitely has ate into the portable game market for adults.
I think that's a big part of the Vita's struggles. They don't have the kid market to fall back on, and a lot of adult gamers are like me and just want to play Uncharted etc. on our big screens and surround sound set ups and just kill time with Angry Birds or Words With Friends etc. when stuck in a waiting room or whatever. Even then I'm more app to pick up reading wherever I left off on my Kindle in the iPhone's Kindle app than play a game.
Agree on the first. My view is Nintendo should scrap consoles and just focus on portables. Put out a wireless HDMI dongle to stream to the TV for people who want the option to game on the big screen.
And I didn't say hardcore--I said Core gamers. And noted specifically that it was the "soft cores" who just buy the AAA blockbuster games like CoD and Madden and Guitar Hero etc. that are the key to success.
Those softcore/mainstream gamers are playing stuff like CoD and couldn't give a rat's ass about Mario, Pokemon etc.
Nintendo's niche is kids who like (or their parents prefer) their cartoony and family safe fare and die hard fans/fanboys who grew up playing their games and still enjoy them (unlike those of us who mostly stopped caring about their games ages ago).