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[-Plasma Reus-]

Nintendo will be fine.
Doomed? lol yeah sure!
They're always "doomed" and then, their comeback starts.
Nintendo is Nintendo.
They will be here in 100 years.

People said the Wii U would do fine, if not as well as the Wii did. But, here we are.
Nintendo is definitely doing fine money wise, its not like they're going bankrupt. But their next attempt at home consoles may be their last one if that doesn't pan out as well as they had hoped.

 

[TheSpaceBetween]

I really hope they do do the hybrid, or at least have their developers make both versions with some minor differences, as in Smash Bros. 3DS. We would get TONS of games with all the developers they have. They might sell less hardware overall, but they simply cannot support two machines with unique software all on their own.

Unless some magic collaborations come out of nowhere, I think the 3DS will see some droughts next year. The Wii U will be strong next year, but 2015 it will probably some big droughts as well, as most of the teams will be working on their followup projects to the ones released this year and next. If there were two versions of every game, there would be a constant stream of software. As it is, it probably won't happen unless Nintendo teaches some of it's handheld developers (Game Freak for example) how to develop for a home console.

 

[UltimaKilo]

So the 2DS means Nintendo admits the 3DS is a failure? I suppose that means Apple released the iPad Mini as an admittance that the iPad was a failure... -___-

 

[Tripon]

So the 2DS means Nintendo admits the 3DS is a failure? I suppose that means Apple released the iPad Mini as an admittance that the iPad was a failure... -___-

Apple still releases the iPod Touch despite the fact its just an iPhone without the ability to make calls. So is Apple declaring the iPod Touch a failure, or the iPhone? =P

 

[Valente]

I think a lot of people in this thread are missing the real point in 3DS' failure. According to a lot of analysts the DS had sold about 40-50% more software at this point in it's life cycle compared to the 3DS. It certainly doesn't help that Nintendo is driving prices up for software rather than down. The Wii U is tracking to sell less than the Gamecube. I can certainly see a future where they drop the home console business and go handheld only.

 

[Lyot]

So the 2DS means Nintendo admits the 3DS is a failure? I suppose that means Apple released the iPad Mini as an admittance that the iPad was a failure... -___-

The iPod shuffle admitted that the iPod nano/mini was a failure, which at the same time admitted the iPod classic was a failure.

Wait for Apple to release the iPhone 5C to admitting the failure of the iPhone 5.

 

[Apophis2036]

It's not just out of the last 4 consoles.
AFAIK its the only console ever to have had that sort of appeal and sales from day one. Even the mighty PS2 had a relatively slow start as compelling titles took a while to appear. Nobody discusses its killer launch app being Fantavision for example.

Some people will still claim that Nintendo artificially manufactured hardware shortages to do that however.

It makes you wonder why so many people (including me to be fair) have written off the WiiU as 'dead' and unable to recover when in fact every console except Wii has struggled early on.

I suppose a lot rests on this Winter when the big name software arrives along with the WW HD bundle, the price cut and hopefully a lot of advertising.

The DS had an absolutely painful first 10 months. And I do think people tend to ignore and forget this. It would be right around now that the Wii U would have to start turning around to compare to the DS.

- DS was consistently outsold in the first 9-10 months by both the GBA and PSP (depending on area of the world... GBA died quick in Japan).
- DS software was Super Mario 64 DS (launch), Feel the Magic (launch), Yoshi Touch & Go (January), Wario Ware Touched (February), Meteos (June), Kirby Canvas Curse (June), and then August saw Nintendogs, Advance Wars, and Pac 'n Roll. That was literally everything worth playing (plus some random GBA up ports) during those first 10 months. But then it was an avalanche that never stopped with Castlevania, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, etc. during the 2005 holiday.
- By mid-summer in America PSP actually had more releases under its belt than the DS did despite launching almost five months earlier.
- There was confusion in stores as to how DS software was displayed. People often joked how DS games were mixed in with GBA software. People laughed at DS game cases having GBA cart holders, and how basically it couldn't differentiate itself from the Game Boy line.
- PSP had the first true hit (GTA Liberty City Stories) before DS did, and many people claimed it would kill off DS momentum.
- DS touch screen was called a massive gimmick. Only games that utilized it well were called tech demos (Yoshi Touch and Go). Kirby Canvas Curse was hailed as the only title to really benefit from the touch screen in that first year.
- GBA seeing releases like Pokemon Emerald, Final Fantasy, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, Banjo-Pilot, Sigma Star Saga, Gunstar Super Heroes, and even the Game Boy Micro made me people think it had a lot more life in it.

Thanks for the detailed info, appreciate it !.

 

[SporeCrawler]

I think a lot of people in this thread are missing the real point in 3DS' failure. According to a lot of analysts the DS had sold about 40-50% more software at this point in it's life cycle compared to the 3DS. It certainly doesn't help that Nintendo is driving prices up for software rather than down. The Wii U is tracking to sell less than the Gamecube. I can certainly see a future where they drop the home console business and go handheld only.

Nintendo is a gaming company only. Limiting oneself to one platform would mean that they are vulnerable to scenarios like when that handheld device flops.

 

[Rizsparky]

So the 2DS means Nintendo admits the 3DS is a failure? I suppose that means Apple released the iPad Mini as an admittance that the iPad was a failure... -___-

Nope, just catering for a larger audience.

 

[fred]

I really hope they do do the hybrid, or at least have their developers make both versions with some minor differences, as in Smash Bros. 3DS. We would get TONS of games with all the developers they have. They might sell less hardware overall, but they simply cannot support two machines with unique software all on their own.

Unless some magic collaborations come out of nowhere, I think the 3DS will see some droughts next year. The Wii U will be strong next year, but 2015 it will probably some big droughts as well, as most of the teams will be working on their followup projects to the ones released this year and next. If there were two versions of every game, there would be a constant stream of software. As it is, it probably won't happen unless Nintendo teaches some of it's handheld developers (Game Freak for example) how to develop for a home console.

We're going to see more collaborations with indie developers like Platinum Games for both the 3DS and Wii U I reckon to fill in the gaps left by their own studios.

 

[PureGone]

I could not disagree more. Nintendo has a long history of pushing hardware innovation. While it may not always succeed, I give them huge credit for taking those risks. It would be tragic if they got out of the console market IMO.

Motion controls ruined gaming (look at Rare) and playing with a tablet is the stupidest thing ive ever heard. They haven't been doing a good job "innovating" for a while.

 

[The_Macho_King]

Motion controls ruined gaming (look at Rare) and playing with a tablet is the stupidest thing ive ever heard. They haven't been doing a good job "innovating" for a while.

Didn't really ruin gaming if it helped lead to new ideas, not just for games but interfaces, etc...

Although waggling is def. not a thing anymore, not even for Nintendo. However, this is only unfortunate for games that benefit from the use the IR controls.

 

[SentryDown]

Good analysis, I always thought Nintendo won't survive ages if their only way to sell goods is to satisfy their fan-base with the same IP again and again

 

[Not]

They have failed to make great products for a number of years now.

Fact-based article. Nintendo consoles have been charting pretty low recently on the industry-standard "Great" Products Scale.

Maybe some key holiday releases alleviate the issue.

At the beginning of the article, lawl

Sublime work

 

[Glass Rebel]

I think the burning question for me is at what stage they could get the Wii U's technology into a handheld system, 'cause I'm not convinced that's doable within a single generation.

They don't have to do that since a handheld wouldn't have to display >720p and they could tone down AA or effects. The things mobile games did in 2012 (I haven't looked at the newer stuff) were stunning. Look at Dead Trigger, Asphalt 7, N.O.V.A. 3, Shadowgun etc. A home console based on mobile technology and without the limitations imposed by size and battery life shouldn't be hard to bring down to $249 and still surpass the Wii U. If you look at iPad BOMs, the display/touchscreen and the battery make up a significant portion of the price, like 1/3 or so.

 

[GDGF]

There needs to be more articles that focus on the "warchest". That seems to be the new schtick deflecting anything from going wrong with the company.

"New" schitck? I remember 20/20 talking about Nintendo's warchest back in like 1988. I think they said it was around 3 billion at the time.

Nintendo's wealth is nothing new.

 

[koryuken]

One thing that I don't think the article covers is IP fatigue (see Call of Duty). You can only release so many incremental Mario and Zelda games before the public at large starts to get tired of them. If your entire strategy to save a dying console is to rehash more IP's, IMO the results will be disappointing in the long term.

 

[MadOdorMachine]

Nintendo is a gaming company only. Limiting oneself to one platform would mean that they are vulnerable to scenarios like when that handheld device flops.

I agree. They should have one architecture (likely ARM based) and put it in multiple devices. This will allow a shared library of games so Nintendo doesn't have to spend time making different games for each platform. Ex. Mario Kart.

Single software, multiple hardware. That should be Nintendo's new motto. That way if something fails (like the Wii U) they can adjust accordingly. Had Nintendo separately released a handheld, tablet and console all with the same architecture that played the same games this would be easier to see and it would also be easier to market. A redesign for the Wii U isn't out of the question, they dropped the 3D on 2DS, but they've put themselves in a corner with the Wii U that's going to be hard to get out of. It was a poor design choice and business decision.

 

[sd28821]

I agree. They should have one architecture (likely ARM based) and put it in multiple devices. This will allow a shared library of games so Nintendo doesn't have to spend time making different games for each platform. Ex. Mario Kart.

Single software, multiple hardware. That should be Nintendo's new motto. That way if something fails (like the Wii U) they can adjust accordingly. Had Nintendo separately released a handheld, tablet and console all with the same architecture that played the same games this would be easier to see and it would also be easier to market. A redesign for the Wii U isn't out of the question, they dropped the 3D on 2DS, but they've put themselves in a corner with the Wii U that's going to be hard to get out of. It was a poor design choice and business decision.

isn't this what they basically doing now with the whole new R&D building

 

[ascii42]

I think the burning question for me is at what stage they could get the Wii U's technology into a handheld system, 'cause I'm not convinced that's doable within a single generation.

It's possible, the Vita's not that far off. The 3DS is generally more powerful than the PSP was (maybe around GameCube levels? I don't know), so I'd think Nintendo's 3DS successor should be more powerful than the Vita was. Which could put it at around WiiU levels.

 

[Lumyst]

One thing that I don't think the article covers is IP fatigue (see Call of Duty). You can only release so many incremental Mario and Zelda games before the public at large starts to get tired of them. If your entire strategy to save a dying console is to rehash more IP's, IMO the results will be disappointing in the long term.

So there should be more of those "other" Nintendo games like Endless Ocean and The Last Story? I seem to recall that the reuse of familiar characters is for the "new generation" of gamers (kids, those growing into gaming) but I wonder if some of that "Mariold" sentiment makes its way to kids' minds even if they never played a Mario game (or potentially the "Nintendo is uncool" sentiment).

In any case, what I think would make a console attractive is if it provides technology people want, games that people want, and gives people confidence that they will get more of those games. And then following up by providing those games in the future. At the moment, I think the WiiU is a technology that people don't want, but it appears that the WiiU reveals how many people are willing to buy a dedicated Nintendo console for traditional Nintendo console games, despite the console's shortcomings. (Too bad for Wonderful 101.) People who don't care for traditional Nintendo games will get either the PS4 or Xbox One, so unless Nintendo either has tons of must-have exclusives that people want over GTA and the like, or makes a console that has the same third party games the others do, in addition to being a better technology, that is the only way to get some of the Sony/Microsoft audience (that's for future consoles though, it's a lost cause with the WiiU).

I wonder if the "expanded audience" was supposed to be enthralled by the gamepad, and when Wii Party U comes out I think that would be a good test for if the gamepad really captivates the expanded audience. If they don't bite (people on NeoGAF seem to agree that they won't) Nintendo will be left with a technology that doesn't appeal to the PS4/Xbox One type of gamer, but to those who enjoy traditional Nintendo games while at the same time being okay with underpowered hardware and a quirky controller (and shameless plug, hopefully a smattering of JRPG gamers, I'm looking forward to SMT x FE and X and hope sales are good enough for more JRPGs).

 

[Dr. Buni]

Nintendo isn't dead and it isn't going to die either. Keep dreaming, haters.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

The PS2 did have SSX at launch -- and I think that was well-received enough to count as a killer app. Completely new IP and extremely fun.

Nah, it was definitely Fantavision as the PS2 killer launch app

Spoiler

Its real killer app was probably...GTA3? I remember that being dismissed as a poor mans Driver, right up until it became apparent it really wasnt.

I think the burning question for me is at what stage they could get the Wii U's technology into a handheld system, 'cause I'm not convinced that's doable within a single generation.

Moores Law is really kicking in hard in the mobile sector right now.
Assuming it stays constant (and in actuality, Moores Law usually undershoots real world advances slightly), you're looking at something 32 times more powerful than current tech in 5 years time.

It makes you wonder why so many people (including me to be fair) have written off the WiiU as 'dead' and unable to recover when in fact every console except Wii has struggled early on.

Some of its fanboyism, some of its following the herd, some of it is just human nature; people aren't very good at remembering the past accurately (nostalgia) and are not very good at predicting the unknown, particularly where the unknown is not basically the same as the current status quo.

One single 'killer app' that really sells the benefit of the WiiU dual screen form factor would be all it would take to 'rise to heaven'. Or even enough titles that sort of make it useful even if none of them single handedly make it a no brainer (as I would say happened with the DS)

 

[UnrealEck]

Under-exaggerate? Never heard that before.

 

[H_Prestige]

Some of its fanboyism, some of its following the herd, some of it is just human nature; people aren't very good at remembering the past accurately (nostalgia) and are not very good at predicting the unknown, particularly where the unknown is not basically the same as the current status quo.

One single 'killer app' that really sells the benefit of the WiiU dual screen form factor would be all it would take to 'rise to heaven'. Or even enough titles that sort of make it useful even if none of them single handedly make it a no brainer (as I would say happened with the DS)

It's called being realistic.

Continually pounding on naysayers and doomsdayers because they refuse to acknowledge the .00001% chance of some Jesus game coming out and single handedly propelling the Wii U out of the graveyard and into the company of the best selling systems ever...is not being realistic. It's blind hope. It's based on personal conviction rather than facts.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

It's called being realistic.

You think the article in the OP is a realistic assessment of Nintendo, hmmm?

 

[H_Prestige]

You think the article in the OP is a realistic assessment of Nintendo, hmmm?

The poster you quoted was talking about the Wii U being doomed. I responded to your idea of the Wii U "killer app" that will apparently arrive soon and make all Wii U is doomed arguments null and void. I called that unrealistic.

But yes, I do think the article is realistic. It presents a logical argument based on real facts. The counter arguments in this thread have been weak to say the least and hinge on the same tired talking points (Nintendo's piggy bank and how long they've been around).

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

I responded to your idea of the Wii U "killer app" that will apparently arrive soon and make all Wii U is doomed arguments null and void.

I didn't say anything of the sort.
I said all it would take would be one killer app to skyrocket WiiU sales.

Not only did I not say that is going to happen, I also didn't say it would happen "soon".

The fact you're inferring so much from a very reasonable statement and think that the article in the OP is "logical" speaks volumes about your own biases.

 

[Dacvak]

I'm, by far, the biggest Nintendo fan I know. I own probably 40 Nintendo handhelds, 3 Wiis, 5 GameCubes, all of their new shit, and at least 100 different Mario toys (plushies, etc). Point is, I love Nintendo probably more than any other company.

That being said, there is absolutely elements of truth to this article. Is it a bit dramatic and exaggerated? Sure. It was written that way to attract people to the site.

But if you guys seriously think Nintendo isn't in any sort of trouble at the moment, you're fucking crazy. They're - absolutely - in no danger of disappearing, selling out, etc etc, but he's right about their current trajectory. The thing is, that can change. 5 years ago, they had a totally different trajectory. It's not like they're in this giant hole they can't get out of, but things are way more difficult for Nintendo right now. Failing to recognize this could absolutely mean more disastrous roads ahead for them.

Thing is, I don't believe that they are blind to what's going on around them. Nintendo is a fucking smart company - you don't stick around this long and make that much money by being stupid. They recognize what the world is like, and despite what their actions dictate, I believe they have at least some sort of decent plan. It's 2013, they're not sitting around going "wtf is a smartphone?!"

In short: Yes, they are currently in a bit of trouble that could get worse, but it's unlikely a company like Nintendo will fail to recognize this.

 

[H_Prestige]

I didn't say anything of the sort.
I said all it would take would be one killer app to skyrocket WiiU sales.

Not only did I not say that is going to happen, I also didn't say it would happen "soon".

The fact you're inferring so much from a very reasonable statement and think that the article in the OP is "logical" speaks volumes about your own biases.

It's a meaningless statement. Is it too soon to call the Vita dead? All it would take is one revolutionary game that everyone in the world needs to play for it to rise to heaven.

I'm, by far, the biggest Nintendo fan I know. I own probably 40 Nintendo handhelds, 3 Wiis, 5 GameCubes, all of their new shit, and at least 100 different Mario toys (plushies, etc). Point is, I love Nintendo probably more than any other company.

That being said, there is absolutely elements of truth to this article. Is it a bit dramatic and exaggerated? Sure. It was written that way to attract people to the site.

But if you guys seriously think Nintendo isn't in any sort of trouble at the moment, you're fucking crazy. They're - absolutely - in no danger of disappearing, selling out, etc etc, but he's right about their current trajectory. The thing is, that can change. 5 years ago, they had a totally different trajectory. It's not like they're in this giant hole they can't get out of, but things are way more difficult for Nintendo right now. Failing to recognize this could absolutely mean more disastrous roads ahead for them.

Thing is, I don't believe that they are blind to what's going on around them. Nintendo is a fucking smart company - you don't stick around this long and make that much money by being stupid. They recognize what the world is like, and despite what their actions dictate, I believe they have at least some sort of decent plan. It's 2013, they're not sitting around going "wtf is a smartphone?!"

In short: Yes, they are currently in a bit of trouble that could get worse, but it's unlikely a company like Nintendo will fail to recognize this.

Recognizing the problem is one thing. Actually doing something about it is another. Nintendo has trouble with the latter.

The guys running the company are not omniscient wizards who can see where the market will be ten years from now. Their batting average in predicting where the market will be is actually not that great. Their success with the Wii blinds people to that.

 

[Freezie KO]

Under-exaggerate? Never heard that before.

Please underexaggerate.

 

[ab.aeterno]

So the 2DS means Nintendo admits the 3DS is a failure? I suppose that means Apple released the iPad Mini as an admittance that the iPad was a failure... -___-

Those two situations aren't even remotely similar. One is simply a smaller version of the other with hardware differences based on form factor. It's the similar trajectory of the 3DS to 3DSXL, in reverse.

The other is literally removing the one feature of its parent device that gave it its name, and was used as the token selling point in the lead up to launch.

We're going to see more collaborations with indie developers like Platinum Games for both the 3DS and Wii U I reckon to fill in the gaps left by their own studios.

Collaborations are expensive. Nintendo may have some huge Scrooge McDuck pile of money in reserve, but if they fund games that don't sell well enough to recoup investment, they'll burn through it. So far, TW101 has bombed in Japan; if it similarly fails to ignite in the West, will it have been worth the millions put into development? Similarly, if Bayonetta 2 doors poorly, what compels Nintendo to keep working with Platinum? They're a business, and they want to make money.

I would still love to hear your thoughts and reasoning on how the WiiU will have sold 8-9 million LTD at the end of the year and PS4/Xbox One only 1-2 million.

Nintendo isn't dead and it isn't going to die either. Keep dreaming, haters.

That's a positive contribution to the discussion.

 

[EMT0]

Collaborations are expensive. Nintendo may have some huge Scrooge McDuck pile of money in reserve, but if they fund games that don't sell well enough to recoup investment, they'll burn through it. So far, TW101 has bombed in Japan; if it similarly fails to ignite in the West, will it have been worth the millions put into development? Similarly, if Bayonetta 2 doors poorly, what compels Nintendo to keep working with Platinum? They're a business, and they want to make money.

Because some games are made as loss leaders. Do you think Killzone Shadowfall is going to cover its development costs? Some games simply need to be sacrificial lambs in order to offer a more appealing package.

 

[Pyronite]

MG Siegler is usually worth reading, and pretty well placed to comment.

Replying to the article with a funny picture or "Horrible Article" isn't exactly a great counter point.

The first 90 posts, up until this one of yours, have been almost uniformly name-calling. This isn't exactly the bastion of serious game industry discussion.

"lol wut
"idiot"
"linkbait"
"game journalism sux"

MG Siegler makes a fair number of good points, and Nintendo as we know it needs to shape up. Their next console cannot be another Wii U. Their handheld market will not continue to carry them in the future unless they wish to reduce the size of their overall operation (not something any company wants to be forced to do) because the casual handheld gamers WILL move to mobile in some capacity. I agree that the Wii was a fad ("an intense and widely shared enthusiasm for something, esp. one that is short-lived and without basis in the object's qualities; a craze.") and particularly so in light of the fact that it will not lead to future sales.