thinking about this thing's prospects in the us.
1. the price is great
$100 for a video game console from a major player hasn't happened in 4 years since the ps2 hit that price, and that's when it was 9 years old. the older ds systems dropped that low after a long time on the market as well. this is the first time we have a supported system from a major first-party hitting this price since the gamecube in 2003. in an age where people are spending hundreds of dollars on phones and tablets, that makes it extremely attractive
2. the branding is slightly confusing (similar to the 2ds)
so there's a little bit of weirdness with this in that i can see people looking for ps vita tv games, kinda like people looking for nintendo 2ds games. unfortunately, this is more of an actual problem since the vita tv and the handheld vita don't 100% share the same library.
3. the library is unattractive (but not to me)
where the ps4 is home to a lot of western games aimed at western gamers, the vita is home to a lot of japanese-centric releases. i'm talking about stuff like dangan ronpa, persona 4, the idol dancer games or whatever, trails in the sky, soul sacrifice, etc. in the us, the top selling games on the machine are uncharted, mortal kombat, call of duty, and assassin's creed. the upcoming library doesn't have much in the way for this audience either, and who knows how much of those recently-announced games will come to the west? yakuza and phantasy star nova are probably solid "no" answers.
4. it's not coming out until 2014, maybe
the announcement was just for japanese audiences, apparently. i suspect it'll come out here eventually, but that they're also missing an opportunity to release it during the holiday season where it had a possibility of defying the odds and building a decent fanbase (not to mention being a companion to the ps4 for the same price of an xbox one). they'll probably release it in march or february. it won't be too late, but it could be wasted potential.
5. the revision of the handheld ps vita is a thing
i totally understand sony wanting to cut costs on the vita. i expected this was on the way given their history. however, i wonder if they shouldn't have just had a smaller release or a very soft launch instead, similar to the gba sp+, and not focus so much on it while also showcasing the vita tv, which winds up less of a companion and more of a competitor. it feels like a mistake to push this into the west in 2013 and not have the vita tv. to me, the vita tv should have happened this holiday season (like october), and the vita revision could have happened in february.
6. it's a console
this is probably the biggest thing that negates whatever negatives there are. dedicated handhelds aren't selling much in the west, so turning the vita into a console is probably the best shot it has at gaining any sort of relevance. i don't believe too many people are going to be disappointed that tearaway won't be playable on the machine, because i doubt too many people are interested in tearaway. whatever games are playable will have a broader reach than before.
so overall i think it has a decent shot at doing something in the united states. even 50,000 a month would be pretty good for the vita, even if we had to combine platforms to get there, and we're talking about what is probably its weakest region. i imagine the machine will do very well in japan.