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[Jonm1010]

I really wish news outlets would call out bullshit on the spot.

Representative Toomey just kept repeating a lie that Moody's claimed that no consequences would come from passing the oct 17 deadline. That we could pay all our bills. Which after a 10 second google search showed me that was a complete lie.

Moody's claimed that it WILL in fact be unable to pay certain expenditures fairly rapidly but that it will prioritize interest on bond payments because of its threat to credit worthiness buying some time.

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

I dont have anything else to add to my original response to you.

:lol Ok then.

 

[SenorArdilla]

So if the US defaults it would tank the entire world economy, correct?

 

[satori]

Damn the Republicans are simply reaching new lows in polls. I didn't think it was possible to even go much lower, since I always assumed a straight 30 percent of people were so entrenched they'd pretend blood was water if it meant keeping their worldview.

You got a link to the polls bro? Would love to take a look at them. At work and on my phone makes it rough to find any info right now due to having crap connections due to weather. Thanks in advance.

 

[bonercop]

how can I become a koch brother

do you think they'll accept a long lost third brother

sorry bruh, they already have herman cain.

 

[ElectricBlue187]

So if the US defaults it would tank the entire world economy, correct?

Not with a bang but a whimper

 

[Riki]

So if the US defaults it would tank the entire world economy, correct?

Not exactly. But it definitely would not be good for the world economy.

 

[Lo-Volt]

You got a link to the polls bro? Would love to take a look at them. At work and on my phone makes it rough to find any info right now due to having crap connections due to weather. Thanks in advance.

Possibly referring to this one? Both national parties are at or near their recent lows, but the Republicans are 15 points below the Democrats on favorability.

 

[darkwing]

So if the US defaults it would tank the entire world economy, correct?

most likely, stock markets in countries would fall for sure

 

[Winterfang]

I'm living of unemployment checks. How fuck am I?

 

[commedieu]

I'm living of unemployment checks. How fuck am I?

Depends, can you work in the Sharia Slave labor camps?

 

[slit]

So if the US defaults it would tank the entire world economy, correct?

There would be very negative consenquences, that's for sure.

What exactly will happen is unknown because it's never happened before.

 

[Trurl]

No, you did compare them when you said that gaffers were wrong before thinking a shutdown wouldn't happen. You come on, you purposefully acted like because people didn't think there was going to be a shutdown and now people don't think there will be a default that there's some sort of correlation between the two. They are two different things. The shutdown on government showing a link to the government defaulting is about as worthwhile as you predicting the winner of a baseball game tonight.

You're being weirdly aggressive about this. Scared?

 

[besada]

I'm living of unemployment checks. How fuck am I?

Unemployment is state, not federal, unless you're already in an extension period. Then you may see delayed payments.

 

[Jack_AG]

Damn the Republicans are simply reaching new lows in polls. I didn't think it was possible to even go much lower, since I always assumed a straight 30 percent of people were so entrenched they'd pretend blood was water if it meant keeping their worldview.

Obama just hit 37% That's 1% higher than Bush's low. It seems people flat-out don't trust the government and rightly so.

 

[Riki]

Obama just hit 37% That's 1% higher than Bush's low. It seems people flat-out don't trust the government and rightly so.

Amazing how a hand full of people can ruin it for everyone on every side. Lucky it's hitting themselves hardest.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Possibly referring to this one? Both national parties are at or near their recent lows, but the Republicans are 15 points below the Democrats on favorability.

Wow. Dat -WiiU After Launch- drop.

 

[Trurl]

Obama just hit 37% That's 1% higher than Bush's low. It seems people flat-out don't trust the government and rightly so.

I suspect that Obama's numbers are more complicated than Bush's due to disappointed liberals.

 

[Jack_AG]

Unemployment is state, not federal, unless you're already in an extension period. Then you may see delayed payments.

The administration has taken to shutting down state elements, as well. Mostly things to get in people's way like Parks, etc. But it shows that even the democrats can stoop to new lows and use citizens as pawns. Not nearly to the extent of republicans - but they are doing it nonetheless.

I wouldn't be surprised if they shut down items that are protected by the constitution under a shut down, at this rate. After Bush, nothing comes as a surprise when it is stamped by the Government.

 

[KHarvey16]

The administration has taken to shutting down state elements, as well. Mostly things to get in people's way like Parks, etc. But it shows that even the democrats can stoop to new lows and use citizens as pawns. Not nearly to the extent of republicans - but they are doing it nonetheless.

I wouldn't be surprised if they shut down items that are protected by the constitution under a shut down, at this rate. After Bush, nothing comes as a surprise when it is stamped by the Government.

Huh?

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

You're being weirdly aggressive about this. Scared?

What would I be scared of exactly?

 

[Riki]

The administration has taken to shutting down state elements, as well. Mostly things to get in people's way like Parks, etc. But it shows that even the democrats can stoop to new lows and use citizens as pawns. Not nearly to the extent of republicans - but they are doing it nonetheless.

I wouldn't be surprised if they shut down items that are protected by the constitution under a shut down, at this rate. After Bush, nothing comes as a surprise when it is stamped by the Government.

What?
Shutting down National Parks is blamed on Democrats?

 

[Fenderputty]

Obama just hit 37% That's 1% higher than Bush's low. It seems people flat-out don't trust the government and rightly so.

Not according to Rasmussen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ministration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

But I guess your CNN poll makes you feel better.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/165317/r...com&utm_campaign=sharing#.UlWiPNqDDHU.twitter

Just for good measure.

 

[commedieu]

The administration has taken to shutting down state elements, as well. Mostly things to get in people's way like Parks, etc. But it shows that even the democrats can stoop to new lows and use citizens as pawns. Not nearly to the extent of republicans - but they are doing it nonetheless.

I wouldn't be surprised if they shut down items that are protected by the constitution under a shut down, at this rate. After Bush, nothing comes as a surprise when it is stamped by the Government.

...expla...in...?

 

[Hawkian]

Obama just hit 37% That's 1% higher than Bush's low. It seems people flat-out don't trust the government and rightly so.

So 37% is 1% higher than 25% now. It's almost hard to believe that we have political messaging issues in this country.

 

[bonercop]

Obama just hit 37% That's 1% higher than Bush's low. It seems people flat-out don't trust the government and rightly so.

I find that poll dubious. It's too steep a drop off in one week from Obama's regular numbers.

 

[NullPointer]

But it shows that even the democrats can stoop to new lows and use citizens as pawns.

What in the wild blue yonder are you talking about?

 

[theprodigy]

Obama just hit 37% That's 1% higher than Bush's low. It seems people flat-out don't trust the government and rightly so.

funny, noted liberal poll

Spoiler

Rasmussen

has Obama at 50%

 

[BLACKLAC]

Not according to Rasmussen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ministration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

But I guess your CNN poll makes you feel better.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/165317/r...com&utm_campaign=sharing#.UlWiPNqDDHU.twitter

Just for good measure.

Yeah CNN poll is looking like an outlier.

 

[Mully]

So if a Debt Ceiling Increase is not agreed upon by the 17th, what does that mean for state and local funding?

I've tried looking for answers from news sources and no one has really answered that question yet.

 

[Hawkian]

I suspect that Obama's numbers are more complicated than Bush's due to disappointed liberals.

I find that poll dubious. It's too steep a drop off in one week from Obama's regular numbers.

funny, noted liberal poll

Spoiler

Rasmussen

has Obama at 50%

Burying the lead a bit there guys? Claiming that Bush's low on approval was 36% is revisionist history.

 

[Riki]

So if a Debt Ceiling Increase is not agreed upon by the 17th, what does that mean for state and local funding?

I've tried looking for answers from news sources and no one has really answered that question yet.

Depends on the program, most likely. A lot of local things won't be as effected, since states take their own taxes. But we really don't know the full extent.

 

[Winterfang]

Unemployment is state, not federal, unless you're already in an extension period. Then you may see delayed payments.

That's good to know, but I'm in Puerto Rico. I don't know if that changes things. =(

 

[ElectricBlue187]

Ooh the evil gubmint is comin to take my parks away. Screw all the Americans out of work or relying on the government for their next meal-Obama is not letting me see Dorothy's ruby red slippers!

 

[Clevinger]

The administration has taken to shutting down state elements, as well. Mostly things to get in people's way like Parks, etc. But it shows that even the democrats can stoop to new lows and use citizens as pawns.

Parks are federal. And the administration isn't shutting them down, it's part of this whole government shutdown thing that said administration doesn't want.

What other things are the administration supposedly shutting down?

 

[theprodigy]

Burying the lead a bit there guys? Claiming that Bush's low on approval was 36% is revisionist history.

hey man, I just wanted to do the "noted liberal (insert conservative-leaning source) says" post
also we all know Jack_AG is one of those "libertarians" (read: Republicans too embarrassed to admit they're Republicans)

 

[bonercop]

Burying the lead a bit there guys? Claiming that Bush's low on approval was 36% is revisionist history.

Well, you already made that point for us

 

[Dude Abides]

What in the wild blue yonder are you talking about?

The government. It's bad you know. Because of things it does and pawns and stuff.

 

[Mully]

Depends on the program, most likely. A lot of local things won't be as effected, since states take their own taxes. But we really don't know the full extent.

The only reason I ask is on average, a state's income encompass 30% of federal aid. If the Fed does not raise a debt ceiling how would that affect the state governments who pass on a lot of that money to local governments.

For instance a lot of local funding for Hurricane Sandy reconstruction is coming directly from the Fed and being monitored by the state. Would that money stop if the Fed defaults?

 

[Riki]

The only reason I ask is on average, a state's income encompass 30% of federal aid. If the Fed does not raise a debt ceiling how would that affect the state governments who pass on a lot of that money to local governments.

For instance a lot of local funding for Hurricane Sandy reconstruction is coming directly from the Fed and being monitored by the state. Would that money stop if the Fed defaults?

For this instance in particular, I'm fairly certain that FEMA and like programs are already shut down (I think?) Payments on that would stop if so.

 

[Sanky Panky]

And that problem was eliminated by the introduction of fiat monetary systems. Hence, less volatility. I'm surprised that you are arguing this. It isn't controversial that convertible monetary systems are volatile.

Markets and economies inherently have cycles that self-regulate in true free markets. These are made worse under 1) a fiat system (with a not so nice record of 5 increasingly intense global boom-bust cycles since the 1970's) and 2) under artificially set/rigid exchange rates that ultimately mess up the balance of payments. The underlying poblem, of course, comes back to printing money, and assuming non-podutive debt with no intention of ever paying it back. It is what ultimately will undo the dollar, and the GOP ae plaing their part in it by adding immense political risk.

Which is why there ought to be further regulation. Note I did not say that there is no volatility. It should be noted that these aren't huge problems, because they only indirectly affect regular people whom the government can easily backstop. Of course, this requires a democratic government that acts in the public interest rather than one that acts in the interests of the super wealthy. But that is a different problem entirely.

Agreed.

And what happens when the economy and population grows? You are proposing a monetary system that has already failed miserably. There is no benefit to arbitrarily tying money to a commodity. There are significant detriments.

Politics and war get in the way of discipline in economics. They create uncertainty and shocks to the system. Governments have felt the need to print money for war purposes (or becuase banks were given free reign to do so), and this creates uncertainty because these "promises to pay" (bank notes and government debt) are based on cash flows expected in an uncertain future. When that future doesn't pan out as predicted, there is nothing of real value supporting all those nominal obligation. When only financial assets support those obligations (a fiat system), those assets are subject to fluctuations in price... the system itself promotes booms and busts.

When it comes to the point that a population or income (the economy) grows, all you have is more people chasing after a set number goods that are produced with increasing efficiency. Prices will increase in a more stable fashion, until the cycle dictates that production should decrease, and prices should deflate. It is all self-regulating.

Under a fiat system, or a system in which banks can lend based on only a fraction of reserves, money is created today based on years and years of future demand. A quick google for any graph showing us price stability under a pre/post fiat system can easily tell the story:

 

[makingmusic476]

I wonder what Jack_AG will claim next. That the feds are oppressing Christians by threatening clergymen with jail time if they try to provide services voluntarily?

Or the Catholic variant, that claims Protestants are getting special treatment?

 

[besada]

The administration has taken to shutting down state elements, as well. Mostly things to get in people's way like Parks, etc. But it shows that even the democrats can stoop to new lows and use citizens as pawns. Not nearly to the extent of republicans - but they are doing it nonetheless.

I wouldn't be surprised if they shut down items that are protected by the constitution under a shut down, at this rate. After Bush, nothing comes as a surprise when it is stamped by the Government.

Do you have some evidence that the administration (I assume you mean the Executive branch) is shutting down state-level programs?

 

[Eighty Deuce]

Better stock up on guns fellas, nothing stops this train.

 

[Riki]

Better stock up on guns fellas, nothing stops this train.

I said earlier. All you need is bullets and water and you'll be a god.

 

[Mully]

For this instance in particular, I'm fairly certain that FEMA and like programs are already shut down (I think?) Payments on that would stop if so.

It's all coming from Federal Grants such as the Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery Program. The CDBGDRP comes from the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Would that be affected as well, even if it's not from FEMA?

 

[Riki]

A lot of the FEMA funding is done, but it's now all coming from Federal Grants such as the Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery Program. The CDBGDRP comes from the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Would that be affected as well, even if it's not from FEMA?

If they're Federal Grants, there will probably be at least a delay in payments. Like I said, we don't know exactly what will be cut and delayed here. It's just never really happened.

 

[besada]

That's good to know, but I'm in Puerto Rico. I don't know if that changes things. =(

It might, because Puerto Rico and D.C. are weird outliers. I do know that PR got federal funds to extend unemployment at the same time as the states, so I suspect that the base number of weeks (should be 26) are likely paid by Puerto Rico and local taxes.

Anything after 26 weeks is almost certainly coming from the federal government, though.

 

[commedieu]

Yeah CNN poll is looking like an outlier.

AG, your thoughts?

 

[Mully]

If they're Federal Grants, there will probably be at least a delay in payments. Like I said, we don't know exactly what will be cut and delayed here. It's just never really happened.

Gotcha. Thanks for the insight.