Sure it's conjecture. What is so wrong with basing your opinions on how current gen went? Sony had much better first party support this gen. They invested in their studios and reaped the benefits. Most of us think that Sony will have a better first party offering this gen as well because they have already established that base. Could MS do better than Sony this gen despite being behind right now? Absolutely, but I tend to think that they won't due to the investments Sony has already made.
Same thing goes for the internet service. MS is heavily invested into the Xbox Live ecosystem so I tend to think they are going to continue to be the leader in that regard. That doesn't mean Sony can't overtake them.
When it comes to these hardware power differences, they are cold hard facts and its impossible to argue that Sony isnt ahead. But when it comes to Live/PSN, why not base it on previous gen until more facts come out? Microsoft has talked a lot about an improved reputation system and smart match. Sony has made some improvements as well, but until I see more information out there Im going to look at current gen as the benchmark.
edit: Fixed some spelling. Spoiled by browser spell check and we have an old crappy IE explorer at work