Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Complete and total misread. They literally got nothing except plummeting poll figures. The debt ceiling will always be "kicked" to some future date.
-
Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
US Federal Government Shutdown | Shutdown Shutdown, Debt Ceiling Raised
- Thread starter Jarmel
- Start date
- Status
Complete and total misread. They literally got nothing except plummeting poll figures. The debt ceiling will always be "kicked" to some future date.
maquiladora
Member
GOP has been hit hard in the polls due to the shutdown and in the end they've been humiliated by being forced to back down without winning a single concession from Obama to placate the Tea Party. They've gained nothing from it other than humiliation. Why on earth would they want to go through that all over again?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I also think some people hear "racism" and immediately think some Mississippi Burning type shit, some virulent, red-faced Boss Hogg lookin racism.
I think it's absolutely arguable that the people in charge of disenfranchising black voters and gerrymandering districts to remove as many minorities as possible might be friendly people, who (legitimately) have black friends, who haven't used a racial slur in a disparaging way since they were stupid teenagers. I think that's probably a pretty good assumption.
However, the fact that their political maneuvering IS, without a doubt, centered on the idea that removal of minority voices is a benefit to them, is inherently racist. It's using their privilege and power to ensure an entire group of people is disadvantaged, based solely on their racial demographics. There's no way around that. That's racism.
If they were trying to actively convert black people to their political leanings, that'd be one thing. But the republican party hasn't really tried that. They're happy when one or two just happen to wind up in their party. But they're more inclined to figure out ways to remove them from districts they control, so as to maintain control. That's systematic. It's charted. Logged. Noted. You can look it up.
That's racism. It's pretty hard to argue that it's not. And large swaths of the party support it indirectly because if they didn't, their party would be politically weakened.
I think it's absolutely arguable that the people in charge of disenfranchising black voters and gerrymandering districts to remove as many minorities as possible might be friendly people, who (legitimately) have black friends, who haven't used a racial slur in a disparaging way since they were stupid teenagers. I think that's probably a pretty good assumption.
However, the fact that their political maneuvering IS, without a doubt, centered on the idea that removal of minority voices is a benefit to them, is inherently racist. It's using their privilege and power to ensure an entire group of people is disadvantaged, based solely on their racial demographics. There's no way around that. That's racism.
If they were trying to actively convert black people to their political leanings, that'd be one thing. But the republican party hasn't really tried that. They're happy when one or two just happen to wind up in their party. But they're more inclined to figure out ways to remove them from districts they control, so as to maintain control. That's systematic. It's charted. Logged. Noted. You can look it up.
That's racism. It's pretty hard to argue that it's not. And large swaths of the party support it indirectly because if they didn't, their party would be politically weakened.
"Obamacare is AWFUL! Look I can't even load up the website!!!"
*website loads*
"Oh... looks like I can, well the premiums SUCK! Look!"
*premiums are actually pretty good*
"Uhh... gimme a minute I have to sign up for this."
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I would buy that in a lot of cases, but not when you bring it to the White House.
Thatonemoor
Member
Yeah I agree with you in saying that this flag is a traitorous symbol but I can't agree that southern culture is the same as it is back than. Believe it our not things have changed down here for people and they aren't as racist as some of your guys like to paint them to be. I have republican friends and they are the furthest from Racist and they love flying the confederate flag as much as the next republican.
I don't like the flag I think it is traitorous to keep it around but I also understand that it doesn't represent all the ideals it use to.
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
Yeah, but usually it's more than 3 months because otherwise you'd default on your debt and send the world economy into a major depression. We'll see how much the poll numbers stay low for them, people's attention spans are short and this probably helped them in their districts or they would have caved already. Don't expect some crazy democrat majority next election because of this. I think you're really overplaying the poll numbers that we currently have.
The same reason they went through with it this time? You act like all their movements are well thought out. This isn't the first embarrassing thing they've done.
maquiladora
Member
Reid is speaking now. C-SPAN 2.
Democrats are trying to get rid of the Sequester cuts that start January 15th so I am sure they agreed to the Debit ceiling date to be sooner than a year like they want as compromise with McConnell so that the Republican have some leverage. Sucks but good if the Sequester is removed.
Thatonemoor
Member
These guys clearly aren't thinking about what the rest of the nation think about it. When you live down here that flag means you are a rebel honestly. Someone that loves to be free and do what they want and blah blah blah. They really don't know (And I doubt they care) what other people in the nation think about it.
maquiladora
Member
They were hoping Obama would blink and give in to some of the things they wanted, even if only token stuff for the Tea Party. They got nothing. They won't get anything by trying it again in 3 months.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
No, it still does, unfortunately. I definitely agree Southern Culture has changed in visible ways. Hell, I can see that from up here in Oregon. It's definitely not the same as it was as recently as the '50s/'60s. The problem is that attaching those positive changes to that flag is a really good way to make sure those changes get swallowed up and subsumed. Basically - the changes in that culture deserve better than to be attached to that flag, especially when it IS obvious that there are many who do still fly that flag because they ARE aware of its cultural significance and traitorous intent.
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
:lol It's just McConnell whining about Obamacare destroying the US now.
I hope that's the case but logic and reason isn't a strong suit for the Republican party so we'll see soon enough unfortunately.
RoninChaos
Member
And I think down here in the south a lot of people can get away with the reasoning of "Southern Culture" and completely remove themselves from the things that happened because they weren't here to see them. ANd people in the south do know what that flag means to most people even if they don't give a fuck. We had a black family move in down the block and the rednecks they lived next to immediately put up a rebel flag after they moved in. Doing that shit says "not welcome".
Unfortunately there are still huge pockets of people in the south who will use that "Southern Culture" excuse and have it validated. I never really knew how bad it was until I saw my wife cringe when she saw a confederate flag. What that flag really is, what it stands for, isn't really talked about in any context.
Oh, partially true.
It also encompasses: Nascar, hunting and fishing, lemonade, church picnics, gentle southern breezes on the porch drinking mint julips, sweet tea, pulled pork bbq, debutantes, cotillians, manners with women (holding doors, etc.).
Unfortunately, despite what the "Southern Heritage" guys "believe" in the eyes of most, the flag does stand for racism.
Its the confederate battle flag, not the flag of the confederacy.
I know you're feeling like this is kicking the can down the road, but January/February is already the start of election season for 2014. The Republicans got into the current mess because of fear of being primaried, so it is highly unlikely they will repeat this fiasco during election season given that doing so would actually cost them election.
It's highly unlikely to get Congress to repeal the debt limit altogether, and even this current deal had to be negotiated between parties in the Senate, so the Republicans in the Senate have to be satisfied with the timetable even if the House Republicans will never be satisfied with anything.
TacticalFox88
Banned
The same party who just threatened to crash the world economy over a law giving citizens acess to Healthcare?
Yeah, we're going through this again.
maquiladora
Member
Even Cruz backs down, :lol.
Thank gawd.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Can never quite get rid of the Diablosing can we, haha.
Grover Cleveland
Member
He has very little to gain from blocking its passage now. He played his part in this whole thing starting though
Hi i'm Caleb
Member
McCain - "Women Helped!...But seriously guys."
Silly McCain.
Silly McCain.
diffusionx
Gold Member
It started happening earlier than that, during the early stages of the Cold War, on anti-communism grounds. You can find a lot of current base thinking in those early ideas (like Democrats and RINOs turning the country over the UN (see Agenda 21 today), etc.).
The CRA led to a rapid sorting of the parties and, in general, the voting public (which has radicalized the parties), but you can draw a straight line from the founders of, say, the John Birch Society to Sarah Palin's "real America" comment (which is a quite literal belief among the flock - that they are real Americans and everyone else is not).
maquiladora
Member
A default was never going to happen. Ever. I'm surprised people still think this. GOP wanted to win concessions from Obama, wanted him to blink, and he didn't. The party of the super-rich, bankers and CEO's weren't going to willingly destory their own wealth and commit political suicide, even if some of the Tea Party members didn't care if that happened.
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
Haha, I cringed when he said that. Dude is so out there sometimes.
He's backing down because he knows if he fillibusters, the GOP might as well just give up even pretending to be united and simply split into two. In which case he would be completely marginalized.
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
This circle jerk after threatening to default and putting all those people out of work for weeks is just disgusting. I think I have to stop watching, can't take all the back patting.
Thatonemoor
Member
Huh well damn. Guess it depends on were you are at. I was speaking in anecdotes anyway :/
Yeah I agree with you on this point. I'm not trying to justify their use of the flag. Like I said I think that flag is pretty traitorous and shouldn't be used at all but all I was trying to do is to say that the cultural differences here are clashing. To you guys this flag is still a sign of slavery but I doubt that is even in the dude who is flying its mind.
To go back a little bit, the posts about why the GOP doesn't lose the Tea Party are all solid, but I wanted to quickly respond to this, because I think it misses a very important component of why America has a two-party system.
tl;dr The Republican Party isn't going anywhere -- it's just going to lose everything for thirty years and then reinvent itself.
In a first-past-the-post election system like America, there's enormous pressure towards the median voter and towards combination of parties. What isn't as clear is that these parties don't have to align along any specific axis or policy. An American political party actually represents a temporary coalition of interests that can unify on certain common goals and, when in power, provide each other support for their specific goals.
Generally, one coalition is dominant, meaning that they can consistently command half the voting population, and wins most of the time. The other coalition spends its time attempting to peel off members of the dominant coalition by running candidates that can appeal to specific interests in that coalition and that offer a policy platform that adheres in the broad details to that of the dominant coalition. In this way the dominant coalition controls the "political conversation."
Already in this description you can probably recognize the dominant political coalition from 1968 to around 2006 -- the Republican Southern strategy coalition, organized around libertarians, Randians, social reactionaries and bigots, and corporate interests, all of whom can unify on the need for reduced taxes and reduced federal power for their own purposes. This coalition replaced the old Republican coalition, which I'm not really sure what it was actually, and became ascendant over the previously dominant Democratic New Deal coalition.
When the New Deal coalition (broadly, organized labor, progressive Christians, people of color, rich white liberals and the poor) started losing its grip, you saw a lot of drama. Extreme elements in the Democratic party started taking center stage, because the establishment no longer had the power to control them. They started pushing for policies badly out of step with the American mainstream, predicting revolutionary changes, and engaging in unpopular and dangerous unconventional tactics. You've probably seen this on television, assuming you were watching Mad Men last season. But these were all fundamentally death throes of a coalition whose members knew it was coming to an end and wanted to get what they could out of it before the party was over.
After this the Democratic party spent decades in the wilderness. Major components of their former coalition were jettisoned -- labor unions will never again have the influence they did in the New Deal era, and organized progressive Christian movements essentially no longer exist. When they did win elections, they did so by running Southern candidates to appeal to the Southern cultural voters and by advocating a lessened version of the same "less taxes, less spending" argument that the dominant coalition favored. In this way the Southern strategy controlled the political conversation for almost fifty years.
But in 2008, as you might have noticed, things changed. The New Deal coalition was replaced by a new coalition -- people of color, women, GLBT, Millenials, and rich white liberals -- which has the uninspiring name of the Rising American Electorate. This is the new Democratic coalition, and it's the dominant coalition of American politics today, focused on social progressiveness, urban regrowth, and increased government social programs.
If the above story of party reinvention seemed awfully familiar to you, it might be because the GOP is going through the same thing right now. Extreme and dangerous tactics? Check. All-or-nothing policies that have no support? Check. Nominating candidates specifically to appeal to the dominant coalition? Well, not yet, but check back with Marco Rubio in 2016. Jettisoning components of its coalition? It's happening already.
So I don't think the Grand Old Party is going anywhere. It's not going to win much for the next 20-30 years, and when it does, it's probably going to be somebody more like Carter and less like Reagan. But it's going to learn what works and reinvent itself. My bet is that social reactionaries are going to lose.
Link
The Autumn Wind
It's a smart move. The next round of sequester cuts hit the military particularly hard. Dems are going to have great leverage.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Summar of the bill:
My guess is no one will be afraid of a default threat in February (at least not the markets). I don't think the Republicans will play this game again. They would have to shut down the government again in January too, doubt they'll do this again.
My guess is no one will be afraid of a default threat in February (at least not the markets). I don't think the Republicans will play this game again. They would have to shut down the government again in January too, doubt they'll do this again.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
God damnit.
jamesinclair
Banned
That's how crazy people get into office though. At least vote for the least of all evils.
Debt ceiling deadline is really more like April now, thanks to Treasury measures.
Blathering on about a mutual desire for bi-partisan action now that they've all of a sudden had a massive epiphany over the last 24 hours that they've been acting like idiots yet they still want to delay talking about the budget.
Laziness and gutlessness.
bodyofanamerican
Member
I read that it's actually August/September/October guaranteeing they won't pull this shit again ahead of 2014. And if they do, good bye House majority.
First of all it's not New Year's Day and second I doubt they try this failed strategy again, especially during an election year.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
This is a well-considered and provocative analysis of the big picture
balladofwindfishes
Member
Not voting put us in this mess. This is a terrible attitude to have. Low turnouts allow for a group like the Tea Party to just buy itself into Congress.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Yup this is probably the last time republicans play the shutdown game. Some argued all along that perhaps Boehner let this happen to show his far right members what happens; many of the tea party congressman who weren't around in 95/96 refused to believe a shutdown would hurt republicans. Of course, based on what many tea party congress folks are saying...they STILL don't believe it. They think the only reason they lost is because leadership gave up. The only way for Boehner to deal with them in the future is to simply pass clean CR/DL raises.
He just proved that he's not willing to kill the hostage, therefore it's safe to assume he can't take the hostage again. The game has been exposed.
Flying Toaster
Member
Until the waters part and a path to the promised land is open he will continue to say it.
- Status