johnny_park
Member
Manning has more comeback wins than Brady though.
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Is Peyton Manning the best quarterback of all time? No.
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Alligatorjandro
Banned
I think Tom Brady is the best QB ever. I am in no way, shape or form biased in anyway.
You could make the same argument against manning except he didn't even get that far.
patjburns89
Member
It's almost like Romo hasn't had shit for a team to surround him.
johnny_park
Member
The Colts went from 10 wins with him to 2 wins without him. The broncos went from 8 wins without him to 13 with. Seems like he's a big reason why they won all those games.
Manning has appeared in 2 Super Bowls though.
Hey I'm not knocking Joe.
I was just stating, while Peyton played poorly for some of that post season. He did make plays when it mattered. The stats don't always tell you that.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Obviously Peyton will be the GOAT if he gets another ring this year. Doesn't really matter if he has less than Brady. Terry Bradshaw has 4 of em.
StanleyStutters
Member
I think he passes Brady if he gets the ring and Brady never gets another one, but he has to get there first. I remember having similar conversations last year about Peyton being the GOAT before the playoffs started. What happens if Brady beats him in Denver with guys like Gronk, Vollmer, Mayo, and Wilfork sitting on IR, and a WR corps of Amendola, Edelman, and a bunch of rookies?
RetroGreg
Member
Yeah. I don't want to sound like I'm coming down on Peyton so much. I love watching him play. I do think he's always done great even with teams that were less talented. An 18 point comeback in a championship game is awesome. If my Niners get eliminated this year I'd love to see him get another one. He's had a fantastic year.
Dougstyles
Banned
Because we all need the reminder:
In addition, Brady has had 10 top 10 scoring defenses in his career (including all three of his Super Bowl teams) compared to 4 for Peyton (who won his lone Super Bowl when a historically shitty D got hot in the playoffs.
In 24 career playoff games, Brady has 10 sub-80 QB rating performances. In 20 career playoff games, Peyton has 7. And how many of those sub-80 QB rating performances came in losses? Four a piece. In Brady's 6 sub-80 victories, the Pats defense gave up an average of 15.7 points per game.
Peyton has lost 7 (out of 11 total) playoff games when his QB rating was above 80, with his defense giving up 25.9 points per game in those contests. Brady has lost 3 (out of 7 total) playoff games when his QB rating was above 80, with his defense giving up 22.0 points per game in those contests.
For kicks, Marino's QB Rating was under 80 in 9 out of his 10 playoff losses. His defense gave up 22 in his lone performance over 80. In fairness, his defenses also gave up an unfathomable 34.5 points per game (still 31.4 if you toss out the Jags slaughter) in his 10 losses, so there's blame to go around.
In Peyton's playoff career, his defenses have given up 21.75 points per game, compared to 19.88 for Brady. This graph makes the point clear:
Simply put, Brady's playoff defenses have held opponents well below the league scoring average for the time, while Peyton's playoff defenses have allowed opponents to consistently perform above it. Montana's defenses, by the way, gave up 18.6 points per game in his playoff career ('81 to '94), which was miles below the league average (except for those few years in the early 90s, after he had won his final Super Bowl).
Peyton throws 1.6 touchdowns per game in the playoffs, compared to 1.75 for Brady. Peyton throws 1.05 interceptions per game in the playoffs, compared to 0.92 for Brady (and 0.91 for Montana).
Peyton throws 2.05 touchdowns per game in the regular season, compared to 1.87 for Brady. Peyton throws 0.92 interceptions per game in the regular season, compared to 0.62 for Brady.
Peyton's TD rate decreases by 0.41 and his INT rate increases by 0.13 in the postseason. Brady's TD rate decreases by 0.12 and his INT rate increases by 0.30 in the postseason.
I would also like to point out that Peyton's playoff QB rating is the 10th best in NFL history. Peyton is a four or five time Super Bowl champion with a sub-20 PPG defense.
Want proof? Look at the 2006 playoffs, probably one of the worst 4-game runs in his entire career outside of his rookie campaign:
And yet they won the Super Bowl. Why? The defense gave up 16.25 points per game during that run. Brady's three runs? 17.2. Montana's four? 12.7. Hell, toss out his first run and it comes down to 8.9 points per game. Eight-point-fucking-nine. Montana's one of the greats, don't get me wrong, but my dog could win 3 Super Bowls with a defense that gives up 8.9 points per game, and my dog's dead.
"Defense wins championships" isn't just a cliche. I don't say this all to take away from Brady -- he's top 3 all time as far as I'm concerned. But to call Peyton a "playoff choker" is absolute bullshit. The numbers say that he's one of the best playoff performers ever, consistently saddled with subpar defenses that have stifled his success. That's not an excuse or a homer handwave, that's just the way it worked out.
Screencap this shit so I don't have to keep explaining it.
It's 2 in the morning and I'm tired as hell and this is probably all unreadable, so let me know if I fucked up any numbers.
Here's one I know is on the money:
51. Motherfuckers.
In addition, Brady has had 10 top 10 scoring defenses in his career (including all three of his Super Bowl teams) compared to 4 for Peyton (who won his lone Super Bowl when a historically shitty D got hot in the playoffs.
In 24 career playoff games, Brady has 10 sub-80 QB rating performances. In 20 career playoff games, Peyton has 7. And how many of those sub-80 QB rating performances came in losses? Four a piece. In Brady's 6 sub-80 victories, the Pats defense gave up an average of 15.7 points per game.
Peyton has lost 7 (out of 11 total) playoff games when his QB rating was above 80, with his defense giving up 25.9 points per game in those contests. Brady has lost 3 (out of 7 total) playoff games when his QB rating was above 80, with his defense giving up 22.0 points per game in those contests.
For kicks, Marino's QB Rating was under 80 in 9 out of his 10 playoff losses. His defense gave up 22 in his lone performance over 80. In fairness, his defenses also gave up an unfathomable 34.5 points per game (still 31.4 if you toss out the Jags slaughter) in his 10 losses, so there's blame to go around.
In Peyton's playoff career, his defenses have given up 21.75 points per game, compared to 19.88 for Brady. This graph makes the point clear:
Simply put, Brady's playoff defenses have held opponents well below the league scoring average for the time, while Peyton's playoff defenses have allowed opponents to consistently perform above it. Montana's defenses, by the way, gave up 18.6 points per game in his playoff career ('81 to '94), which was miles below the league average (except for those few years in the early 90s, after he had won his final Super Bowl).
Peyton throws 1.6 touchdowns per game in the playoffs, compared to 1.75 for Brady. Peyton throws 1.05 interceptions per game in the playoffs, compared to 0.92 for Brady (and 0.91 for Montana).
Peyton throws 2.05 touchdowns per game in the regular season, compared to 1.87 for Brady. Peyton throws 0.92 interceptions per game in the regular season, compared to 0.62 for Brady.
Peyton's TD rate decreases by 0.41 and his INT rate increases by 0.13 in the postseason. Brady's TD rate decreases by 0.12 and his INT rate increases by 0.30 in the postseason.
I would also like to point out that Peyton's playoff QB rating is the 10th best in NFL history. Peyton is a four or five time Super Bowl champion with a sub-20 PPG defense.
Want proof? Look at the 2006 playoffs, probably one of the worst 4-game runs in his entire career outside of his rookie campaign:
And yet they won the Super Bowl. Why? The defense gave up 16.25 points per game during that run. Brady's three runs? 17.2. Montana's four? 12.7. Hell, toss out his first run and it comes down to 8.9 points per game. Eight-point-fucking-nine. Montana's one of the greats, don't get me wrong, but my dog could win 3 Super Bowls with a defense that gives up 8.9 points per game, and my dog's dead.
"Defense wins championships" isn't just a cliche. I don't say this all to take away from Brady -- he's top 3 all time as far as I'm concerned. But to call Peyton a "playoff choker" is absolute bullshit. The numbers say that he's one of the best playoff performers ever, consistently saddled with subpar defenses that have stifled his success. That's not an excuse or a homer handwave, that's just the way it worked out.
Screencap this shit so I don't have to keep explaining it.
It's 2 in the morning and I'm tired as hell and this is probably all unreadable, so let me know if I fucked up any numbers.
Here's one I know is on the money:
51. Motherfuckers.
It'll be Brady beating a bad Broncos defense with Peyton having no margin for error (as usual)
Denver is gonna score points. Only issue is if they can't stop anyone good. With Miller done for the season (most likely), that defense is about to get even worse (if that's even possible)
abolisher6812
Member
Dan Marino is still the best quarterback I've seen play.
Lol, the New England total defense is ranked........... 26th in yards per game
The Broncos are currently ranked 22 in that category.
The Pats have never faced Manning at Mile High it was always in Foxboro. not going to happen if the Broncos beat the Raiders.
Von miller is thought to have a sprain.
StanleyStutters
Member
What? The Patriots defense has struggled for years now, especially against top-tier QBs. On top of that two of their top three guys on defense, Wilfork and Mayo, are on IR. Brady playing with a 7th round QB in Edelman, Danny Amendola, and a group of no name TEs and rookies has no margin for error. Peyton with a loaded offense against a bad and banged up defense clearly has the advantage.
T.M. MacReady
NO ONE DENIES MEMBER
The Steelers won their first SB with Ben in spite of him and because of several very questionable calls. You can't cite that Super Bowl in any argument for Roethlisberger. He was abysmal in it.
Thanks for this, this is the sort of analysis I was looking for. Again, coming from the perspective of a baseball fan (among traditional sports) and from a statistics-driven person generally, I still feel strongly that you need to isolate variables when attempting to assess the quality of any specific moving part.
I see no reason why the NFL would be different. We can do our best to isolate variables: how good were the defenses? How good were the offensive lines? How fast were the wide receivers the QB was throwing to? Surely we can all agree that an average QB with a great defense, a strong offensive line and solid wide receivers can beat a team which has a great QB but poor defense, a poor offensive line to protect that QB, and slow WRs with butterfingers to throw to.
Because we all need the reminder:
In addition, Brady has had 10 top 10 scoring defenses in his career (including all three of his Super Bowl teams) compared to 4 for Peyton (who won his lone Super Bowl when a historically shitty D got hot in the playoffs.
In 24 career playoff games, Brady has 10 sub-80 QB rating performances. In 20 career playoff games, Peyton has 7. And how many of those sub-80 QB rating performances came in losses? Four a piece. In Brady's 6 sub-80 victories, the Pats defense gave up an average of 15.7 points per game.
Peyton has lost 7 (out of 11 total) playoff games when his QB rating was above 80, with his defense giving up 25.9 points per game in those contests. Brady has lost 3 (out of 7 total) playoff games when his QB rating was above 80, with his defense giving up 22.0 points per game in those contests.
For kicks, Marino's QB Rating was under 80 in 9 out of his 10 playoff losses. His defense gave up 22 in his lone performance over 80. In fairness, his defenses also gave up an unfathomable 34.5 points per game (still 31.4 if you toss out the Jags slaughter) in his 10 losses, so there's blame to go around.
In Peyton's playoff career, his defenses have given up 21.75 points per game, compared to 19.88 for Brady. This graph makes the point clear:
Simply put, Brady's playoff defenses have held opponents well below the league scoring average for the time, while Peyton's playoff defenses have allowed opponents to consistently perform above it. Montana's defenses, by the way, gave up 18.6 points per game in his playoff career ('81 to '94), which was miles below the league average (except for those few years in the early 90s, after he had won his final Super Bowl).
Peyton throws 1.6 touchdowns per game in the playoffs, compared to 1.75 for Brady. Peyton throws 1.05 interceptions per game in the playoffs, compared to 0.92 for Brady (and 0.91 for Montana).
Peyton throws 2.05 touchdowns per game in the regular season, compared to 1.87 for Brady. Peyton throws 0.92 interceptions per game in the regular season, compared to 0.62 for Brady.
Peyton's TD rate decreases by 0.41 and his INT rate increases by 0.13 in the postseason. Brady's TD rate decreases by 0.12 and his INT rate increases by 0.30 in the postseason.
I would also like to point out that Peyton's playoff QB rating is the 10th best in NFL history. Peyton is a four or five time Super Bowl champion with a sub-20 PPG defense.
Want proof? Look at the 2006 playoffs, probably one of the worst 4-game runs in his entire career outside of his rookie campaign:
And yet they won the Super Bowl. Why? The defense gave up 16.25 points per game during that run. Brady's three runs? 17.2. Montana's four? 12.7. Hell, toss out his first run and it comes down to 8.9 points per game. Eight-point-fucking-nine. Montana's one of the greats, don't get me wrong, but my dog could win 3 Super Bowls with a defense that gives up 8.9 points per game, and my dog's dead.
"Defense wins championships" isn't just a cliche. I don't say this all to take away from Brady -- he's top 3 all time as far as I'm concerned. But to call Peyton a "playoff choker" is absolute bullshit. The numbers say that he's one of the best playoff performers ever, consistently saddled with subpar defenses that have stifled his success. That's not an excuse or a homer handwave, that's just the way it worked out.
Screencap this shit so I don't have to keep explaining it.
It's 2 in the morning and I'm tired as hell and this is probably all unreadable, so let me know if I fucked up any numbers.
Here's one I know is on the money:
51. Motherfuckers.
Nice post.
johnny_park
Member
This is dumb, they don't even make the Super Bowl without him. He had one bad game that post season.
All jokes aside, Montana will always be my pick of the greatest qb that played the game. He might have been as flashly and exciting to watch as Marino, but when it comes down to it, which other qb did you want under center when the game was on the line?
Lol, I think this is the third gif I've seen where this is happening to him.
Deadly Joker
Member
I could see Luck and Colts going into Denver and beating Peyton again. Wouldn't surprise me.
CitizenCope
Member
Pretty sure it's a team joke now.
Because we all need the reminder:
In addition, Brady has had 10 top 10 scoring defenses in his career (including all three of his Super Bowl teams) compared to 4 for Peyton (who won his lone Super Bowl when a historically shitty D got hot in the playoffs.
In 24 career playoff games, Brady has 10 sub-80 QB rating performances. In 20 career playoff games, Peyton has 7. And how many of those sub-80 QB rating performances came in losses? Four a piece. In Brady's 6 sub-80 victories, the Pats defense gave up an average of 15.7 points per game.
Peyton has lost 7 (out of 11 total) playoff games when his QB rating was above 80, with his defense giving up 25.9 points per game in those contests. Brady has lost 3 (out of 7 total) playoff games when his QB rating was above 80, with his defense giving up 22.0 points per game in those contests.
For kicks, Marino's QB Rating was under 80 in 9 out of his 10 playoff losses. His defense gave up 22 in his lone performance over 80. In fairness, his defenses also gave up an unfathomable 34.5 points per game (still 31.4 if you toss out the Jags slaughter) in his 10 losses, so there's blame to go around.
In Peyton's playoff career, his defenses have given up 21.75 points per game, compared to 19.88 for Brady. This graph makes the point clear:
Simply put, Brady's playoff defenses have held opponents well below the league scoring average for the time, while Peyton's playoff defenses have allowed opponents to consistently perform above it. Montana's defenses, by the way, gave up 18.6 points per game in his playoff career ('81 to '94), which was miles below the league average (except for those few years in the early 90s, after he had won his final Super Bowl).
Peyton throws 1.6 touchdowns per game in the playoffs, compared to 1.75 for Brady. Peyton throws 1.05 interceptions per game in the playoffs, compared to 0.92 for Brady (and 0.91 for Montana).
Peyton throws 2.05 touchdowns per game in the regular season, compared to 1.87 for Brady. Peyton throws 0.92 interceptions per game in the regular season, compared to 0.62 for Brady.
Peyton's TD rate decreases by 0.41 and his INT rate increases by 0.13 in the postseason. Brady's TD rate decreases by 0.12 and his INT rate increases by 0.30 in the postseason.
I would also like to point out that Peyton's playoff QB rating is the 10th best in NFL history. Peyton is a four or five time Super Bowl champion with a sub-20 PPG defense.
Want proof? Look at the 2006 playoffs, probably one of the worst 4-game runs in his entire career outside of his rookie campaign:
And yet they won the Super Bowl. Why? The defense gave up 16.25 points per game during that run. Brady's three runs? 17.2. Montana's four? 12.7. Hell, toss out his first run and it comes down to 8.9 points per game. Eight-point-fucking-nine. Montana's one of the greats, don't get me wrong, but my dog could win 3 Super Bowls with a defense that gives up 8.9 points per game, and my dog's dead.
"Defense wins championships" isn't just a cliche. I don't say this all to take away from Brady -- he's top 3 all time as far as I'm concerned. But to call Peyton a "playoff choker" is absolute bullshit. The numbers say that he's one of the best playoff performers ever, consistently saddled with subpar defenses that have stifled his success. That's not an excuse or a homer handwave, that's just the way it worked out.
Screencap this shit so I don't have to keep explaining it.
It's 2 in the morning and I'm tired as hell and this is probably all unreadable, so let me know if I fucked up any numbers.
Here's one I know is on the money:
51. Motherfuckers.
Overall numbers are not a good indicator if a player is clutch or a choker.
A good indicator can be his comp/att, TD and INT rate in the last 4 minutes of the 4th Qtr while trailing
So we need to look at only a few select statistics, only in the last 4 minutes, only in the fourth quarter, only while trailing and only in playoff games to gauge who is "clutch"? Without even looking, I can confidently state that the sample size for such analysis would be very small and would be highly susceptible to random variation which showed luck more than it showed skill.
In any given set of 60-100 passes, it's entirely possible that Trent Dilfor would have been better than Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or anyone else just due to extraneous variables or simple random fluctuation that can't be meaningfully attributed to underlying skill. It takes a far greater amount of statistical aggregation to see meaningful differences.
I could make the same argument that Manning was on a team that got caught cheating and hasn't won a Super Bowl since?
I don't think I could, really.
Maybe the 4 minute was a stretch, so lets just say trailing in the 4th quarter at any given time
In sports player are consider chokers when they fail to produce when the game is on the line.
For example AROD all time stats in postseason are: 263 avg, 369 OBP, 833 Ops, 13 hr and 41 rbi.
These are decent numbers for postseason in MLB, but that doesnt make him clutch.
rokkerkory
Member
Brady is a better QB but he seems like a douche.
Manning is classy and extremely good.
Brady wins however because his wife is a supermodel.
Manning is classy and extremely good.
Brady wins however because his wife is a supermodel.
Bolt Vanderhuge
Member
You can trust this man's impartiality, he's a Jags fan.
Or you could make an argument comprised of things that matter. Your choice really.
StanleyStutters
Member
Brady is a better QB but he seems like a douche.
Manning is classy and extremely good.
Brady wins however because his wife is a supermodel.
A lot of people think Brady is a douche, even people I know who don't watch football, and I have no idea where it comes from. He's always a team-first guy in press conferences, restructured his contract multiple times, and had to deal with adversity ever since he finished high school. He losses his temper on the field at times, but I don't mind seeing that from the top guys in the league.
crimzonflame
Member
Only 16 points?
MetalFearSolid
Banned
All I know is that against my Bucs, he came back from a 21 point deficit with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. They were down 21 points with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter at Tampa against a Kiffin defense that was highly rated that year. Indy won after everyone in Tampa went to bed after midnight on Monday Night Football when the game seemed to be decided.
He was pretty damned clutch that day.
We can go on and on in this debate, but bottom line is that if he can get a superbowl victory with the Broncos, he will be the first quarterback in history to do it with 2 different teams. That along with his other career numbers IMO will solidify his placement as the best.
Otherwise it is still debate after debate. But he has had a worse defense on his team year after year through his career than other top quarterbacks with Superbowl rings because no matter how good of a quarterback you are, defense wins games.
A top 5 defense has faced a top 5 offense several times in Superbowls and the the top 5 defense wins every time.
StanleyStutters
Member
That was great, Sherman is entertaining to listen to. All athletes trash talk on the field, like I said Brady isn't the classiest guy on the field, but I'm sure Peyton talks during the games too.
Again trash talk. That was a response to Plax saying the D was going hold NE to 17. Turns out they were better than he anticipated.
It is meaningful, though your Pats colored glasses make it seem less so to you.
Brady is a phenomenal player; Belicheck is a great coach. Maybe this is the year they win one without stigma and that argument dies.
Version 3.0
Member
I disagree, but it was close. And there are always close ones, for any team, in any year. We've been robbed of a couple this year, in my opinion, but that's the game.
I don't need colored glasses to see your ultimate point, or unless your foolish enough to actually equate that argument to any sort of relevancy.
Manning is way better than Romo but the Cowboys would be like a 3 or 4 win team the last few years if Romo didn't play for them.
Alligatorjandro
Banned
Brady gave the Patriots the lead in both Super bowls. The defense gave up scores in the final minute to lose.
If you want to blame defense for Peyton losing.
If you want to blame defense for Peyton losing.
My ultimate point is that, just like Manning, there are concessions, cracks and flaws in the Brady resume. Like all great players have. And I think picking a GOAT is silly, because football, hell, the quarterback position alone, has yet to find its Wayne Gretzky or Michael Jordan.
My objective with the post, at least a little, was to poke you, yes, but I do feel the Pats Super Bowl wins have a stigma. Especially with two losses in the two appearances after being discovered. It's a matter of opinion I suppose. We differ. It's cool.
Full disclosure, I'm a Manning fan and I despise Brady. But I think arguments could be made for either being GOAT right now. But it's honestly too close to call.
Version 3.0
Member
I'm sorry your dog died, but great post, man.
Your point worries me, though. Our defense - or at least, our pass defense - stinks this year. It looks like the Broncos will have to score 30+ points, or maybe even more, to win games in the playoffs. The offense is getting a bit fitful, but even at the insane level it's been most of the year, it might not be enough to overcome a defense likely to give up so many points against good playoff teams.
Man, I'd love to be wrong. It'd be nice to see this defense stiffen up at the right time.
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