• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

December 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13

Chobel

Chobel

Member
Selling 400K-ish is already bad for Wii U, but selling less than 400k? Wow!

Editing my predictions once again.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Dynopia said:
Not sure why people are expecting WiiU to double month over month, Nov to Dec isn't a huge jump (if at all) anymore.

I revised my 3DS figures also, kinda disappointing that it could be down YOY.
Click to expand...

Nintendo consoles have still managed 100% jumps in recent years.
 
F

Frankfurter

Member
kswiston said:
Nintendo consoles have still managed 100% jumps in recent years.
Click to expand...

Nope. Wii actually saw really small boosts in 2012 and 2011 (~13 and ~23% respectively), only 2010 came close to those 100% jumps (+~85%). 2009 was a ~200% jump, so one could argue that the times of huge increases from Nov -> Dec are over.
 
M

Miles X

Member
Frankfurter said:
Nope. Wii actually saw really small boosts in 2012 and 2011 (~13 and ~23% respectively), only 2010 came close to those 100% jumps (+~85%). 2009 was a ~200% jump, so one could argue that the times of huge increases from Nov -> Dec are over.
Click to expand...

And that they only ever existed for consoles/handhelds in high demand.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
[360] 700k
[3DS] 1300k
[PS3] 470k
[PS4] 1300k
[PSV] 150k
[WIU] 250k
[XB1] 1000k

I feel like a PS fanboy, but it is sad how 150k for the Vita is an optimistic prediction :(
 
T

TheRealTalker

Banned
I am likely wrong
Since the PS4 sold 2 million in one month and the XO 1 million... both are WW but the US would likely be a major factor in this

With the PS4 getting a boost through extra launches in Asia
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
[360] 595K
[3DS] 1050K
[PS3] 500K
[PS4] 980K
[PSV] 250K
[WIU] 475K
[XB1] 850K

Been a few years since I did this, but I'll dive back in for this gen.
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
[3DS] 1175K
[PS4] 1060K
[360] 665K
[XB1] 855K
[PS3] 495K
[WIU] 340K
[PSV] 109K
 
M

MrCookiepants

Member
Ugh, why are you all predicting the PS4 to sell more than Xbone? They're going to use this thread as ammo when it doesn't. Dec NPD is going to be a shit storm.
 
M

MrCookiepants

Member
michaelius said:
Because it likely did ?
Click to expand...

No, it 99% did not. The sales were close in November, how do you think it's going to go when one system is supply constrained and the other is easier to find than pigeons in New York?

Dec NPD thread will go like this

"lol Microsoft still the One, what a comeback!"

"but worldwide!"

"this is about America, go away"

Rinse and repeat for 200 pages.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
MrCookiepants said:
No, it 99% did not. The sales were close in November, how do you think it's going to go when one system is supply constrained and the other is easier to find than pigeons in New York?

Dec NPD thread will go like this

"lol Microsoft still the One, what a comeback!"

"but worldwide!"

"this is about America, go away"

Rinse and repeat for 200 pages.
Click to expand...

That's a high number for a huge assumption.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
We have Germany now for PS4 in 2013 at 250K. We're Australia short from being able to make a really good PS4 guess. Has anyone been keeping track?
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
anexanhume said:
We have Germany now for PS4 in 2013 at 250K. We're Australia short from being able to make a really good PS4 guess. Has anyone been keeping track?
Click to expand...

We know PS4 sold less than xbone (65k) in Australia, and there's probably no restocking, so PS4 should be 50-60K in Australia.
 
M

Miles X

Member
There is no way you can guess PS4 figures based on what it sold in other countries, it launched in too many places without data, did they ship like 400k to asia?

And pachter really doesn't put any effort into his predictions, if he saw the 11.5m 3DS news he'd know it can't be higher than 1.1m. 360 down mom but PS3 up? WiiU 550k?!!
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
anexanhume said:
We have Germany now for PS4 in 2013 at 250K. We're Australia short from being able to make a really good PS4 guess. Has anyone been keeping track?
Click to expand...

Hmm best I can tell

US Nov. NPD PS4 Sales - 1,138,000

UK sales as of Dec. 29th - 530,000

Spain Sales as of Dec. 23 - 134,000

Germany Sales as of Dec. 31st? - 250,000

France as of Dec. 17 - 100,000

Brazil as of Dec. 2 - >= 1

-------------Rumors/Estimates--------------

Asia Rumored Shipment by Famousmortimer - 500,000

UAE Sales (One Retailer?) as of Dec. 13 - 3,500

Australia Launch Numbers as of Dec. 9 - < 65,000
------------------------------------------------------

WW PS4 sales LTD as of Dec. 28 - 4,200,000

So I get 1,479,499 PS4's unaccounted for. That leaves Canada, Mainland Europe (sans Germany, France and Spain), some middle eastern countries, some eastern European countries and south america. Obviously it will have sold more in France since then but I doubt more than 50 - 100K and curious what Australia's numbers are like now

I'm going to keep building on this post I think, try to figure out all the missing countries. As PS4 has launched in 53 countries as of Dec. 28th, I'm missing 44 countries numbers specifically but the Asia estimate likely covers 10 - 15 countries
------------------------------------------------------

Best list of Countries PS4 is Available in I could find

Credit to Road for the list

So I'm missing sales numbers from South Africa, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

I'm assuming that Famousmortimer's shipped number for Asia would include Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia
 
P

pharmboy044

Member
So Pachter doesn't think there really was a PS4 shortage? 1200K seems way to high when you factor in the supply constraints for the PS4.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
opticalmace said:
I meant to ask, what was your old avatar from?
Click to expand...

http://linkerbell.deviantart.com/art/Happy-Valentines-Day-285159362


Dynopia said:
There is no way you can guess PS4 figures based on what it sold in other countries, it launched in too many places without data, did they ship like 400k to asia?

And pachter really doesn't put any effort into his predictions, if he saw the 11.5m 3DS news he'd know it can't be higher than 1.1m. 360 down mom but PS3 up? WiiU 550k?!!
Click to expand...

Pachter actually makes a comment in the note that says something like "According to Nintendo's estimates, 3DS sales are around 1.1 million for December NPD, but that's below our estimates / we don't care what Nintendo estimated."
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Aquamarine said:
Pachter actually makes a comment in the note that says something like "According to Nintendo's estimates, 3DS sales are around 1.1 million for December NPD, but that's below our estimates / we don't care what Nintendo estimated."
Click to expand...

Haha that's hilarious. Why wouldn't you trust Nintendo's numbers? Especially if they're lower then your own estimates
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
SwiftDeath said:
Haha that's hilarious. Why wouldn't you trust Nintendo's numbers? Especially if they're lower then your own estimates
Click to expand...

Only thing I can think of is that Nintendo may put out a very conservative estimate so they'll have a higher chance of exceeding their own expectations. Maybe that's what they care about most? Of course if they estimate low enough they can always self fulfill that prophesy every time. I think I remember SONY doing that with the PSPGo because one time sales numbers released and Sony said it exceeded their expectations.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Circana (NPD) Hardware Sales for 2022 - NSW 5830k | PS5 5660k | XBS 4480k
Sales-Age 2 3 4 5
230
16K
Woopah replied
Circana January 2024: #1 MWIII #2 Tekken 8 #3 Suicide Squad ; PS5 #1 Units + Rev, Switch #2 Units Xbox #2 Rev
Sales-Age 2 3
105
10K
mckmas8808 replied
Ampere Estimatez: PS5 sold 21 million, Xbox Series sold 13.8 million.
9 10 11 12 13
602
39K
SuperSaiyanWithDreads replied
Circana (NPD) October 2023: #1 Spider-Man 2 #2 Super Mario Wonder #3 AC Mirage; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, NSW #2 Units, XBS #2 Revenue
Sales-Age 3 4 5 6 7
307
27K
Unknown? replied
[GI.biz] Analysts offer predictions for 2023 in games
16
3K
Magic Carpet replied
Top Bottom