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December 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13

Z

ZOONAMI

Junior Member
When you think about it, all 3 console manufacturer's are selling close to 2 million units. Nintendo is probably making a pretty good margin on 2DS and 3DS systems, while Sony is taking a loss on the PS4, not sure if MS is taking a loss on XB1. Also not sure if Nintendo is still losing money on Wii Us. Purely a guess, but I would bet by now they are making a slight profit on each Wii U. Sony and MS probably making pretty good margins on 360s and PS3s. So really, it's a pretty even set up for all three manufacturers. Vita is hardly selling, so not really do much for Sony. Nintendo also is still selling some Wiis, but not a significant amount.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Apophis2036 said:
Does anyone know what the record is for most consoles ever sold in a single NPD month (one format only), I imagine the Wii in the middle of the craze in 2008 or something ?.
Click to expand...

Wii in 2009 with 3.8m, I think. NDS was the only other console to sell > 3m in a month. All in Decembers.

ZOONAMI said:
Also not sure if Nintendo is still losing money on Wii Us. Purely a guess, but I would bet by now they are making a slight profit on each Wii U.
Click to expand...

They were losing money prior to the $50 price cut, so I'd imagine that they're still probably losing money per system.
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
[360] 875K
[3DS] 1370K
[PS3] 500K
[PS4] 1520K
[PSV] 120K
[WIU] 410K
[XB1] 1430K

What the hey. Haven't done it this year, why not the big kahuna?
 
R

Rhaknar

The Steam equivalent of the drunk friend who keeps offering to pay your tab all night.
Yay my first one of these :)

[360] 950k
[3DS] 1450k
[PS3] 600k
[PS4] 1400k
[PSV] 125k
[WIU] 350k
[XB1] 1200k
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Relevant, recent Nintendo PR

REDMOND, Wash., Jan. 10, 2014 – Shoppers bought Nintendo 3DS games in record numbers in 2013, and Nintendo plans more great games to continue the momentum in 2014. Here is a recap of 2013 by the numbers:

More than 16 million combined packaged and digital Nintendo 3DS games were sold in 2013, an increase of more than 45 percent over 2012's Nintendo 3DS game sales.
The Nintendo 3DS family of portable systems, which also includes Nintendo 3DS XL and Nintendo 2DS, has crossed lifetime hardware sales of more than 11.5 million in the United States alone.
Seven Nintendo 3DS games that launched in 2013 have a Metacritic score of 85 or higher, including two games at 90+ (The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds and Fire Emblem Awakening).
"Nintendo 3DS is a powerhouse with games and experiences that appeal to all kinds of players," said Scott Moffitt, Nintendo of America's executive vice president of Sales & Marketing. "We're not slowing down in 2014. With more games featuring fan-favorite franchises on the way, the best days of Nintendo 3DS are still to come."
Click to expand...

Nintendo 3DS LTD December - over 11,500,000 - source: Nintendo
Nintendo 3DS LTD at November - "nearly 10,500,000" - source: NPD

Combining, it would give around 1,200,000 for December, but remember: these are Nintendo estimates, they could certainly be a little different from NPD numbers. Wii in December 2009 anyone? Especially considering how we don't know about their November LTD.
 
D

dolemite

Member
Mpl90 said:
Relevant, recent Nintendo PR



Nintendo 3DS LTD December - over 11,500,000 - source: Nintendo
Nintendo 3DS LTD at November - "nearly 10,500,000" - source: NPD

Combining, it would give around 1,200,000 for December, but remember: these are Nintendo estimates, they could certainly be a little different from NPD numbers. Wii in December 2009 anyone? Especially considering how we don't know about their November LTD.
Click to expand...

I am quite concerned about what is NOT being said in the PR statement.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
BlackJace said:
lol well that doesn't paint a good number for Wii U in December at the moment.
Click to expand...
Realistically, one would hope they would have been able to say it broke 2 million LTD. They didn't.

That isn't a proof, but think of what it means if they still haven't broken 2 million after two holiday seasons. Heck, just ask the PlayStation Vita.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
daegan said:
Without saying more than I should I know what shipments looked like at several stores through both months. November had over a million in the US, but I promise you December did not.

In particular the shipments the last two weeks have been a lot smaller.
Click to expand...

You sticking by this and how far under a million.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
jvm said:
The figure 10,500,000 is within 1% of the actual figure, I believe.
Click to expand...

So, around 10,400,000?

EDIT: What was Wii U LTD in November, according to NPD? I don't remember it now.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Aquamarine said:
Something like that, yeah.


Wii U LTD as of November is between 1.61 and 1.62 million.
Click to expand...

...No. I can't believe Wii U didn't even sell 400k in December. Or just a little more than 400k (considering again the usual differencies between Nintendo and NPD tracking). I refuse to believe.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Mpl90 said:
I know, but being again around that ballpark (and probably lower), in their second Holiday, is just...oh God.
Click to expand...

Worst case scenario, we'll see a phenomenon similar to Wii's 2012 holiday performance.

Something like this:

Last year Wii sales:

November 2012 -> 420K
December 2012 -> 472K

This year's Wii U sales:

November 2013 -> 223K
December 2013 -> 300K

Imagine if the Wii U only manages 300K for December!
 
I

Into

Member
Lexxus said:
NPD December is going nuts if WiiU indeed sold below 400k
Click to expand...

That would just add more grenades and other explosives to the 9 ton of C4's already there for the PlayStation and Xbox numbers. Proceed with caution.

Surely the Wii U has done better than 450k
 
Z

zomgbbqftw

Banned
jvm said:
Realistically, one would hope they would have been able to say it broke 2 million LTD. They didn't.

That isn't a proof, but think of what it means if they still haven't broken 2 million after two holiday seasons. Heck, just ask the PlayStation Vita.
Click to expand...

It might be a case of not wanting to draw any attention to Wii U at all, regardless of its December performance. Whatever the installed base is right now, it's going to be a poor number, whether it is over or under 2m matters very little. I don't think any conclusions can be drawn from Nintendo leaving it out of their PR.
 
D

donny2112

Member
zomgbbqftw said:
I don't think any conclusions can be drawn from Nintendo leaving it out of their PR.
Click to expand...

Correct, but the 3DS figure does leave me thinking that December wasn't as big a boost to overall hardware sales as I personally thought. Revised down almost all my numbers, as a result of getting a glimpse into 3DS sales, which I still expect to be highest in the month.
 
D

DaBoss

Member
PS3 went down last year from Nov to Dec and that is with the SuperSlim in its first year. Any reason to expect it to go up this year?

Or was there a reason why it went down last year?
 
G

Goldmund

Member
I have a new strategy for predicting Wii U sales: (1) follow your ordinary methodology, (2) think: "Wait, it's the Wii U!", (3) revise Wii U numbers down accordingly.
 
D

donny2112

Member
DaBoss said:
PS3 went down last year from Nov to Dec and that is with the SuperSlim in its first year. Any reason to expect it to go up this year?

Or was there a reason why it went down last year?
Click to expand...

November was the first time it was $199 for the system, I think, so the BF sales is probably what pushed Nov > Dec. Retail has been trying to shift sales to be as front-loaded as possible the last few years with the major discounts being in Nov. Don't think it would've been as front-loaded this year (sales weren't relatively as good to the normal prices with the 12GB available), but with the PS4, that might've pushed it down still.

Goldmund said:
I have a new strategy for predicting Wii U sales: (1) follow your ordinary methodology, (2) think: "Wait, it's the Wii U!", (3) revise Wii U numbers down accordingly.
Click to expand...

Do you work for Nintendo? Sounds like each investor meeting when they revise down their annual forecast. :p
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Revising 3DS down.

I wouldn't take the lack of Wii U in the statement to mean that the system hasn't hit 2M. Although I still don't think the system has hit 2M regardless.

In recent years I think there's been a shift to bigger Novembers, and consequently smaller Nov->Dec multipliers.
 
M

Miles X

Member
Not sure why people are expecting WiiU to double month over month, Nov to Dec isn't a huge jump (if at all) anymore.

I revised my 3DS figures also, kinda disappointing that it could be down YOY.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
confuziz said:
Not sure about PS4 beating the One though. It'll be close.
Click to expand...

Yep this NPD is going to be one for the record books. 3DS should do well but I think it'll be down YOY. Wii U numbers sound bad, vita is going to somehow be worse and I have a feeling 360 and PS3 numbers will indicate an ever increasing reluctance to buy into the old systems unlike the last generational shift (granted with 360 being a year prior to PS3, PS2 was still going strong)
 
M

michaelius

Banned
Mpl90 said:
...No. I can't believe Wii U didn't even sell 400k in December. Or just a little more than 400k (considering again the usual differencies between Nintendo and NPD tracking). I refuse to believe.
Click to expand...

It sold like 220k in November - 400k in December would be miraculus turnaround.

Anyway mine predictions

[3DS] 1220K
[PS4] 999K
[XB1] 850K
[360] 600K
[PS3] 400K
[WIU] 230K
[PSV] 110K
 
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