Thoughts on each category: (other than the short categories)
Best Picture - this is La La Land's to lose, given its huge tally of nominations and Academy-friendly subject-matter. This would make it the first original musical to win Best Picture since 1958, having become the first to be nominated since 1967. Moonlight is the challenger and probable beneficiary of people who view it as the worthier, more "serious" movie (this happens every time a comedy/musical is the frontrunner, in particular).
Best Director - Damien Chazelle is a safe bet here, and would probably win even if his film loses Best Picture.
Best Actor - Affleck has won almost everything here, and his putative main rival, Washington, hasn't built much steam, particularly since the film overall faded in the course of the race and is focused now on a win for Viola Davis. Maybe if the sexual harassment allegations against Affleck really explode it will shift the media narrative, but it's late in the game for that.
Best Actress - the hardest to judge of the acting categories. Emma Stone is in the BP frontrunner, but hasn't, thus far, gathered much in the way of individual awards. Natalie Portman has critical heat, but is dividing it with Isabelle Huppert, and in neither case did their films find a ton of support outside of them. SAG will offer some clarity on this point next week, whether it's Portman or Stone.
Best Supporting Actor - the precursors would identify Mahershala Ali as the frontrunner, which I'll go with. He's a little low on the fame side to be a totally assured winner, but I don't sense much of a narrative building around any of his rivals either (this would be a different situation if Jeff Bridges didn't already have an Oscar).
Best Supporting Actress - Davis is the frontrunner here, and has a great winning narrative (she's now the most nominated black/POC actress in Academy history, but hasn't won yet, and is well-respected). If Moonlight really surged, maybe Harris would upset here, but otherwise, Davis.
Best Original Screenplay - Manchester by the Sea probably collects its second consolation prize here, unless La La Land really sweeps, but the former is such a writerly movie that I think it's the favourite (and Chazelle is more likely to be thought of as a director).
Best Adapted Screenplay - easy win for Moonlight.
Best Film Editing - Tom Cross won Best Editing for his first film with Damien Chazelle, and he will repeat here.
Best Cinematography - this is a likely win for La La Land, though in principle I could see any of these films other than Lion winning.
Best Production Design - La La Land probably wins this too, since the other BP nominee represented here (Arrival) is fairly muted for a sci-fi nominee in this category, and the others are genre/period pictures that don't seem to have much heat.
Best Costume Design - La La Land's vibrant jewel tones will likely put it in the front of the pack here, making it the first contemporary winner since The Legend of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert in 1994. If not, Jackie or Florence Foster Jenkins are more traditional period winners.
Best Original Score - La La Land in a walk.
Best Original Song - I think "Audition" is the stronger of the two songs nominated from La La Land, but "City of Stars" seems to have become the film's anthem, and so is presumptively the stronger candidate. There being two nominees opens up the possibility of "How Far I'll Go" coming up the middle, but I ultimately doubt that an original musical will win Best Picture but not Best Original Song.
Best Sound Editing - war movies generally do well here, so I'll say Hacksaw Ridge, which will be its token reward.
Best Sound Mixing - musicals do well here, so I'll guess this goes to La La Land, though I know some people have taken issue with its sound mixing.
Best Visual Effects - I have a hard time seeing this not going to the photoreal animal effects of The Jungle Book, seeing as they were resistant to Star Wars' charms last year and in general have no interest in Marvel Studios films.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Star Trek Beyond wins this, the second of the three Abrams-verse Trek films to do so, seeing as its rivals are either unseen by most or considered of dubious quality.
Best Documentary Feature - O.J.: Made in America probably walks off with this unless people rebel against its length or its being allowed into the movie awards. Who would most benefit from that happening, I'm not sure.
Best Foreign Language Film - at least going by the critical acclaim, Toni Erdmann should cruise to victory here, though the wins in this category often feel extremely random.
Best Animated Feature - Zootopia has been the frontrunner in this category all year, and it will continue to be so for the remainder of the awards season. It has an unbeatable mixture of critical support and box office power. Plus, a (sadly) timely political subtext.
Best Picture - this is La La Land's to lose, given its huge tally of nominations and Academy-friendly subject-matter. This would make it the first original musical to win Best Picture since 1958, having become the first to be nominated since 1967. Moonlight is the challenger and probable beneficiary of people who view it as the worthier, more "serious" movie (this happens every time a comedy/musical is the frontrunner, in particular).
Best Director - Damien Chazelle is a safe bet here, and would probably win even if his film loses Best Picture.
Best Actor - Affleck has won almost everything here, and his putative main rival, Washington, hasn't built much steam, particularly since the film overall faded in the course of the race and is focused now on a win for Viola Davis. Maybe if the sexual harassment allegations against Affleck really explode it will shift the media narrative, but it's late in the game for that.
Best Actress - the hardest to judge of the acting categories. Emma Stone is in the BP frontrunner, but hasn't, thus far, gathered much in the way of individual awards. Natalie Portman has critical heat, but is dividing it with Isabelle Huppert, and in neither case did their films find a ton of support outside of them. SAG will offer some clarity on this point next week, whether it's Portman or Stone.
Best Supporting Actor - the precursors would identify Mahershala Ali as the frontrunner, which I'll go with. He's a little low on the fame side to be a totally assured winner, but I don't sense much of a narrative building around any of his rivals either (this would be a different situation if Jeff Bridges didn't already have an Oscar).
Best Supporting Actress - Davis is the frontrunner here, and has a great winning narrative (she's now the most nominated black/POC actress in Academy history, but hasn't won yet, and is well-respected). If Moonlight really surged, maybe Harris would upset here, but otherwise, Davis.
Best Original Screenplay - Manchester by the Sea probably collects its second consolation prize here, unless La La Land really sweeps, but the former is such a writerly movie that I think it's the favourite (and Chazelle is more likely to be thought of as a director).
Best Adapted Screenplay - easy win for Moonlight.
Best Film Editing - Tom Cross won Best Editing for his first film with Damien Chazelle, and he will repeat here.
Best Cinematography - this is a likely win for La La Land, though in principle I could see any of these films other than Lion winning.
Best Production Design - La La Land probably wins this too, since the other BP nominee represented here (Arrival) is fairly muted for a sci-fi nominee in this category, and the others are genre/period pictures that don't seem to have much heat.
Best Costume Design - La La Land's vibrant jewel tones will likely put it in the front of the pack here, making it the first contemporary winner since The Legend of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert in 1994. If not, Jackie or Florence Foster Jenkins are more traditional period winners.
Best Original Score - La La Land in a walk.
Best Original Song - I think "Audition" is the stronger of the two songs nominated from La La Land, but "City of Stars" seems to have become the film's anthem, and so is presumptively the stronger candidate. There being two nominees opens up the possibility of "How Far I'll Go" coming up the middle, but I ultimately doubt that an original musical will win Best Picture but not Best Original Song.
Best Sound Editing - war movies generally do well here, so I'll say Hacksaw Ridge, which will be its token reward.
Best Sound Mixing - musicals do well here, so I'll guess this goes to La La Land, though I know some people have taken issue with its sound mixing.
Best Visual Effects - I have a hard time seeing this not going to the photoreal animal effects of The Jungle Book, seeing as they were resistant to Star Wars' charms last year and in general have no interest in Marvel Studios films.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Star Trek Beyond wins this, the second of the three Abrams-verse Trek films to do so, seeing as its rivals are either unseen by most or considered of dubious quality.
Best Documentary Feature - O.J.: Made in America probably walks off with this unless people rebel against its length or its being allowed into the movie awards. Who would most benefit from that happening, I'm not sure.
Best Foreign Language Film - at least going by the critical acclaim, Toni Erdmann should cruise to victory here, though the wins in this category often feel extremely random.
Best Animated Feature - Zootopia has been the frontrunner in this category all year, and it will continue to be so for the remainder of the awards season. It has an unbeatable mixture of critical support and box office power. Plus, a (sadly) timely political subtext.
