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[Kraftwerk]

Didn't see a thread anywhere. Lock if old.

I have been thinking about making a thread about this, and after reading this post on another forum, I will just copy pste it, as it gives you the full explanation very well'

This is a very divisive issue and something which could potentially start another civil war.
Brief background:

As you may or may not be aware, Afghanistan is made up of several ethnic groups:
Pashtun Tajik Hazara Uzbek Others (Turkmen, Kuchi, Baluchi, etc.)

Unfortunately, these ethnic groups were pitted against each other in the 90s during a brutal civil war that destroyed any remaining progress after the decade-long Soviet invasion of the 80s. Many blame foreign entities for causing strife, but that is a discussion for another time. Although Afghans have calmed down since the 90s, memories run deep and ethnic tensions remain in the back of the minds of many.

The demographics of these ethnic groups is unclear as there has not been a proper census for decades. However, the prevailing view is that Pashtuns are the largest ethnic group. Thus, many Pashtuns feel that they should have a significant, if not the majority of the say in the government. Since the inception of the modern state of Afghanistan, there has not been one non-Pashtun head of state. Other ethnic groups, mainly Tajiks and Hazaras, have felt ostracized and would like to see some representation especially now that Afghanistan is a democracy. Some of them even believe that non-Pashtuns outnumber Pashtuns.

In 2009, Karzai, a Pashtun, "won" the reelection of Afghanistan. He was running against Abdullah Abdullah, a Tajik. There was plenty of evidence for ballot stuffing and voter intimidation. Although Abdullah initially contested the election results, he gave in and accepted the result.

It's 2014 now and Afghan law requires that a candidate receive 50% of the vote to be determined the winner. Otherwise, there will be a second round. The first voting round occurred and results were released on May 15:

Abdullah Abdullah (Tajik) - 45.0%
Ashraf Ghani (Pashtun) - 31.5%
Zilmay Rassoul (Pashtun) - 11.4%

Zilmay Rassoul dropped out and expressed his support for Abdullah Abdullah. That left Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, with the former in the stronger position.
Second round of voting occurred. Final results will be released July 22. However, a sample of the votes results were released by the Independent Election Committee:

Ashraf Ghani - 56.4%

Abdullah Abdullah - 43.6%

Ashraf Ghani announced himself winner. This caused turmoil in the streets. Abdullah Abdullah purported hundreds of cases of voter fraud and even released a hidden recording of someone at the Independent Election Committee who spoke to Ashraf Ghani's aides about stuffing ballots. Also, results indicated that in (heavily Pashtun areas in the south) there were more voters in some cities than actual people living there. On a final note, they argue that, especially with Zilmay Rassoul's supporters, it is impossible for Ashraf Ghani to go from 31.5% to 56.4%.

Abdullah supporters are still on the streets. There are talks of forming a "parallel government", partitioning North and South Afghanistan, or even another civil war should Abdullah not be declared the president. Abdullah demands answers, but has asked for his supporters to be patient.

On the other side, Ashraf Ghani and his supporters are suggesting that Abdullah is undermining the electoral process and causing problems for his own political career, alleging that he knows he lost.

The head of the Independent Election Committee stepped down and the UN is now getting involved in investigating 4 million of these votes to determine the legitimacy of the results. The Obama administration subtly threatened both candidates (although more to Abdullah) with the freeze on foreign aid for Afghanistan. US officials are visiting this Friday. That may quiet Abdullah or force Ghani in some sort of power-sharing hegemony.

The majority of the time when you read about "ethnic" or "sectarian" divisions in the Middle East or South Asia, it's superficial and lazy journalism that attempts to make a memorable fairy tale for Western viewers who have no tolerance for political nuances. In this case though, ethnic tensions are legitimately at works here.

On another note, several other countries have a stake in Afghanistan's elections and it is clear that they are leveraging their players on the ground and stroking divisions to further their own political agendas. Wish the best for the people. The last thing we need is more bloodshed.

Guessing time: Ashraf Ghani will remain in power. Abdullah will express anger, but he will not be declared president. He will be included in the government though. Tensions will remain on the street, but will smolder. Growing Taliban attacks in Helmand and elsewhere will unite people against a common enemy.

I'm from Afghanistan and have been talking to my friends who are there right now. Lots of protests happening, even around the globe. Just yesterday there was a protest on London regarding this.

I don't think there is a any way that Abdullah Abdullah will come out of this winning, since Ashraf Ghani is practically Karzai v.2.0 due to his close ties with the western powers.

It breaks my heart to see this shit still happen. One thing my country really lacks is a sense of community. Which you can see evident in this election right here. Every tribe fighting for itself, and not for the country as a whole.

It makes working there very brutal. My friend graduated in the states last year. He is a Telecommunication engineer, and instead of accepting an amazing job with high-salary in the states, he decided to go to Afghanistan and work there instead, so he could :help his country", his words. He still hasn't found a job yet because he is Hazaara, and there is still animosity when it comes to them in my country.

Every single thing is based on connections. They have taken Nepotism to a whole other level. Old families who funnelled hundreds of million of foreign money during the Taliban war out of the country still do that shit.

This isn't me spewing conspiracy. I have been to their homes in Dubai and London. They live in mansions, literally. This is when the war was still going on and people are dying and starving. Whenever they would send money to the government, these fuckers would take their cut since everything was in chaos.

Another friend I have is working at the Ministry of Defence in Kabul and says money keeps disappearing and nobody knows where it;s going, and nobody gives a shit. That last part really saddens me. The people have been broken down so much due to war for decades that they just want to live their lives in ignorance, since there is no war right now. They don't want to cause trouble and are afraid.

The same corrupt families came back as soon as the U.S.A came to my country, and put these people in charge. Now they are in positions of power, and doing the same bullshit again.

Apologies about my rant.

Anyway, once John Kerry goes to Kabul we will see what happens next.

 

[Kraftwerk]

Friend just told me John Kerry has arrived in Kabul and is talking to both groups so they can resolve this quick.

 

[Kraftwerk]

Update on the matter...for anyone intrested;

John Kerry just brokered a deal between the two candidates. There will be a recount overseen by the United Nations. Both candidates have agreed to abide by the recount result, and cause no more chaos.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/john-kerry-afghanistan-eleciton-recount

They are going to audit every ballot and get to the bottom of it. Ghani is still going to win in my opinion.

 

[commedieu]

Thanks for the updates.

 

[RustyNails]

Yeah I have been following this for a while now. Thanks for the thread.

In my opinion, Abdullah x2 is a sore loser. He is an ex-warlord. He fought the Taliban, but I don't want a warlord to run any country. I'm glad Ashraf Ghani won the runoff. His resume is very impressive, and he opened the doors for economic modernization in Afghanistan, including cell phone towers and 3g network services. I will always have Afghanistan close to my heart as it's the country of my great grandparents and their forefathers. I hope Ghani can usher in a new, successful chapter in the country's history.

Update on the matter...for anyone intrested;

John Kerry just brokered a deal between the two candidates. There will be a recount overseen by the United Nations. Both candidates have agreed to abide by the recount result, and cause no more chaos.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/john-kerry-afghanistan-eleciton-recount

They are going to audit every ballot and get to the bottom of it. Ghani is still going to win in my opinion.

I've also read that the audit will take as little as two weeks, in time for inauguration.

 

[Kraftwerk]

Thanks for the updates.

No problem.

Yeah I have been following this for a while now. Thanks for the thread.

In my opinion, Abdullah x2 is a sore loser. He is an ex-warlord. He fought the Taliban, but I don't want a warlord to run any country. I'm glad Ashraf Ghani won the runoff. His resume is very impressive, and he opened the doors for economic modernization in Afghanistan, including cell phone towers and 3g network services. I will always have Afghanistan close to my heart as it's the country of my great grandparents and their forefathers. I hope Ghani can usher in a new, successful chapter in the country's history.

I've also read that the audit will take as little as two weeks, in time for inauguration.

I really hope so. He does indeed have the resume and capabilities to do things right.

He really needs to end the corruption and money disappearing on such an extreme level.

10 years and my town still doesn't have a proper road is just embarrassing.

 

[RustyNails]

If Ghani still wins after the audit (they are going to audit EVERY single vote...wow!), he has just wasted millions of dollars and comes out as even a bigger loser. Also, the inauguration is likely delayed

 

[RustyNails]

Double Abdullah causing havoc again. Threatening to pull out of the audit because UN is not agreeing to his criteria of what is valid and invalid

A senior member of Abdullah Abdullah's campaign demanded on Tuesday that the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and the Independent Election Commission accept Abdullah team's proposals for vote invalidation or else they would withdraw from the audit process.

"If they accept our demands by tomorrow [Wednesday] morning we will continue the process, if not, we will withdraw from the process and consider it finished," Fazel Ahmad Manawi said.

Manawi said the audit process was not technical and "it was rather a political process".

"We have discussed the election issues with the UN but they have not responded to our concerns," Manawi said.

He said that Abdullah's demands over how fraudulent votes would be thrown out had been ignored.

Has there been any other sore loser than this guy in elective history. He got UN observers like he wanted. He got power sharing government in case he loses. He got John Kerry to listen to his crocodile tears. The whole country is teetering on the edge of chaos because Double Abdullah is a sore crybaby loser. Once a warlord, always a warlord.

Give it up.

 

[Kraftwerk]

Double Abdullah causing havoc again. Threatening to pull out of the audit because UN is not agreeing to his criteria of what is valid and invalid

Has there been any other sore loser than this guy in elective history. He got UN observers like he wanted. He got power sharing government in case he loses. He got John Kerry to listen to his crocodile tears. The whole country is teetering on the edge of chaos because Double Abdullah is a sore crybaby loser. Once a warlord, always a warlord.

Give it up.

Yup, never liked the man. Met him once, really two-faced.

 

[RustyNails]

Abdullah Abdullah has pulled out of the audit process....UN observers slightly relieved...?

Afghan presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah has pulled his observers from an audit of the country's disputed election over concerns of vote fraud, his spokesman has said.

Fazel Sancharaki said on Wednesday that the process was "full of fraud''.

Abdullah has accused auditors of refusing to throw out fraudulent ballot papers and demanded an independent investigation.

The process followed allegations of vote fraud on both sides and is meant to decide whether Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister, or former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai will replace President Hamid Karzai.
Our complete Afghanistan coverage

Liam McDowall, a spokesman for the United Nations in Kabul, confirmed that there had been a "temporary pause'' in the audit process but said monitors did not anticipate it would be a significant disruption.

Contentious process

Al Jazeera correspondent Jennifer Glasse, reporting from Kabul, said that the vote auditors have asked Ghani's supporters to leave as well.

"The real question is whether Abdullah Abdullah and his supporters will accept the results of this audit without their representatives in the room. It was Abdullah Abdullah though who called the international community and the UN to oversee this audit," she said.

"The UN observers say they are optimistic the process will continue apace. It might even go more quickly without Abdullah's representatives in the room. The auditors have gone through 74 percent of the ballot boxes but the last few thousands are the most contentious."

Abdullah's decision to pull observers from the process throws what has already been a lengthy and contentious process into further turmoil.

Under a US-brokered plan, all the eight million ballots from the country's June presidential runoff are being audited for fraud.

But Abdullah's camp says they have concerns about fraud that are not being addressed in the audit.

"The biggest challenge for us in Afghanistan is this process is becoming a very, very long process, which is impacting not only the political process but also the Afghan economy," Haroun Mir, a political analyst base in Kabul, told Al Jazeera.

"The coffers of the Afghan government are empty. The Taliban have been attacking in 16 provinces, so the security situation has been deteriorating day by day and we have to find a solution as quickly as possible."

He is setting up stage where he will denounce the election results amidst cries of fraud. UN seems relieved actually, because now they can conduct the audit in peace without Double Abdullah's observers interfering over every line and smidge.

I am actually fearful of what might happen after the results are declared. US' 11 years of hardwork is having an outlook similar to Iraq at the moment.

 

[Kraftwerk]

Abdullah Abdullah has pulled out of the audit process....UN observers slightly relieved...?

He is setting up stage where he will denounce the election results amidst cries of fraud. UN seems relieved actually, because now they can conduct the audit in peace without Double Abdullah's observers interfering over every line and smidge.

I am actually fearful of what might happen after the results are declared. US' 11 years of hardwork is having an outlook similar to Iraq at the moment.

Yup. His team is also hard at work churning out propaganda. He is spreading lies such as Ghani being a puppet or Karzai, and that they will divide our people and it will only benefit the Pashtun tribe, and they will treat al the Tajiks like lower class citizens.

Also they claim that there will be even more fraud, and that the Ghani government will steal money and etc.

All of this being ridiculously ironic, because the Tajik politicians have been giving all the good jobs to Tajiks only for the past few years, and all of them getting wealthy via corruption.

The people are really tired, they just want a stable government. It's amazing how Abdullah says things such as Ghani not being a man of the people, and he is the one causing all these problems, which could lead to chaos as you said.

 

[Kraftwerk]

Ghani named winner of Afghan election, will share power with rival in new government


KABUL — Former finance minister Ashraf Ghani was declared the winner of Afghanistan’s contested presidential election on Sunday, hours after Ghani and the second-place finisher, Abdullah Abdullah, stood together to announce the formation of a long-awaited coalition government.

FULL ARTICLE

Abdullah will select someone to be a chief executive to work alongside Ghani as they share the power.

This is such a messy situation. Knowing my country and these guys, all that is going to happen is fighting between them as they will want to give people form their own tribes the best positions and land. Nobody I spoke to is happy.

 

[davepoobond]

Sounds like a recipe for a civil war.

Hopefully it doesn't turn out that way.

 

[midramble]

Thanks for the updates. I'll be reading more into it thanks to this. What province and town are you from, if you don't mind my asking?

 

[Kraftwerk]

Thanks for the updates. I'll be reading more into it thanks to this. What province and town are you from, if you don't mind my asking?

you are very welcome.

I am from Fayzabad, Badakhshan.

 

[Tesseract]

cool thread, i try to stay up on afghan news but i must admit the political nuances of the region go way over my head.

ghani sounds like the leader afghanistan needs, hopefully everything works out.

 

[onken]

So what's next for double Abdullah if Ghani is reconfirmed as the winner?

 

[Kraftwerk]

So what's next for double Abdullah if Ghani is reconfirmed as the winner?

He is sharing some power still.

Other than that, he will keep funnelling money to buy more mansions abroad, and probably run again next term.

 

[Amir0x]

10 years and my town still doesn't have a proper road is just embarrassing.

you live in Afghanistan?

 

[Kraftwerk]

you live in Afghanistan?

No. Been there a few times. I live in Canada.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

No. Been there a few times. I live in Canada.

Then it isn't really your town now is it?

 

[Kraftwerk]

Then it isn't really your town now is it?

It is, will always be.

Ill send you some sick goat jackets from Badakshan F/W2015

 

[Amir0x]

aw. But i know we have a few afghanistan GAFers somewhere...

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

Any recent updates?

Never trust a man with two first names!

 

[Kraftwerk]

aw. But i know we have a few afghanistan GAFers somewhere...

Would love if there were any

Any recent updates?

Never trust a man with two first names!

Yeah, posted above. Ghani is president and will share some power with The man with two names. Ceremony in a week or two.

 

[midramble]

you are very welcome.

I am from Fayzabad, Badakhshan.

Wow, way up north. Still have family there? Being so close to the corridor and the mountains how do you feel about the mining contracts and their future? Got any family or friends down in Kandahar province?

Would love if there were any.

Definitely. Would be great if we could get more Afghan-GAF in here.

 

[B!TCH]

It's really the same story anywhere else. There is so much corruption and tribalism everywhere it just takes on different masks depending on where you are in the world. It will always exist but I just hope that there are a few leaders who genuinely do want to raise the standard of living for the average person instead of only thinking about themselves (or their tribe) first.

 

[xbhaskarx]

Never trust a man with two first names!

The folks I'd trust most in Afghanistan are the Tajiks, like Abdullah Abdullah, Yunus Qanuni, etc. they're the ones who made up the bulk of the Northern Alliance back in the Taliban days (Ahmed Shah Massoud was also ethnic Tajik)... of course no side in Afghanistan is totally clean or incorruptable but we've already seen how well the corrupt/incompetent Hamed Karzai ran things...