No BBC=Anger
Member
Either UBI or a greatly expanded authoritarian police state. I'm guessing some leaders would love option 2 and push for that but going by sheer numbers the out of work population would overrun it.
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AI Doomer thread
- Thread starter ResurrectedContrarian
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Either UBI or a greatly expanded authoritarian police state. I'm guessing some leaders would love option 2 and push for that but going by sheer numbers the out of work population would overrun it.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
Ain't nobody (especially not office workers) going to be fighting over construction jobs too labor intensive and we Mexicans got those jobs on lock anyway.
Mr1999
Member
Where I work we depend on labor, and we already have said workers to fill those roles, but the problem lies with everyone else's roles, many of which can be "delegated" to someone else. I work for a union, and I don't know how longer they will keep certain jobs on life support. From my experience with companies over the years they tend to operate like a bloc, when one business makes a move, others usually follow. Even if AI turns out to be nothing, just talking about it can trigger a chain reaction. They will use AI as a scape goat no matter what happens. You just have to look around and ask yourself, are x, y, z person bringing any value, can we make without said person? Its fucked up but that's how its looked at.
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ResurrectedContrarian
Suffers with mild autism
Hopefully new kinds of work will fill the gap... so instead of "the same volume/kinds of things are produced, but with less human labor" it could be "there are now entirely new possibilities in every direction to start building, opened up by the tech and its transformations, so hiring and work will continue, because we've automated one world as we suddenly have the ability to create a wholly new one on top."
A bit simplistic, but something in that direction is what I hope for.
I put zero faith in "UBI" etc being a way to save us. People need to actually be involved in the world with their labor (and involved in shared ways, eg all the labor & compromise that makes up a family), and you'll see an even darker dystopia if everyone becomes atomistic individuals paid by the state to live but without control.
A bit simplistic, but something in that direction is what I hope for.
I put zero faith in "UBI" etc being a way to save us. People need to actually be involved in the world with their labor (and involved in shared ways, eg all the labor & compromise that makes up a family), and you'll see an even darker dystopia if everyone becomes atomistic individuals paid by the state to live but without control.
Laptop1991
Member
It will probably be both good and bad depending what it's used for and only after quite a while of fixing it and tweaking the software will it work to an acceptable level, i expect some chaos at first.
Paasei
Member
Still have no idea what I'd use it for in my personal environment. Only as a glorified search engine or image creator just for the fun of it. I know I'm also pretty clueless about the whole thing and just don't know what the whole fuss is about.
Seems like a replacement hype for that metaverse shit.
Seems like a replacement hype for that metaverse shit.
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Makoto-Yuki
Banned
AI is thrown about too much. Everything has AI slapped on the box these days.
A few years ago it was something I thought would be decades away. Obviously it has become way more useful and popular since ChatGPT.
It's scary but impressive what it can do with image/video/audio generation. I'm not worried about it too much right now but it's only going to get more powerful. I don't know when we'll have AGI but it feels like it's moving fast.
It will probably lead to more job losses but I don't think it's gonna go rogue and kill off humans. Another worrying thing is governments using it to track and spy on people more easily. I'm glad I don't use social media platforms like facebook, twitter, instagram, etc. (yes technically NeoGaf is a social media) and take many steps to improve my privacy and security online. My government is desperate to break E2EE, even more heavily control the internet, and get access to everyone's data. They say will use AI to detect threats but that is a wide net to cast. Say the wrong thing these days and if someone is offended then you're fucked. Won't be long before the old social score idea comes back (like that episode of Black Mirror "Nosedive"). AI will only make that much easier to implement.
Everything you do online will be monitored with AI. CCTV will use facial recognition and match it to your online identity. We're already going down the slope and have been for a long time but AI is gonna make it so much worse.
A few years ago it was something I thought would be decades away. Obviously it has become way more useful and popular since ChatGPT.
It's scary but impressive what it can do with image/video/audio generation. I'm not worried about it too much right now but it's only going to get more powerful. I don't know when we'll have AGI but it feels like it's moving fast.
It will probably lead to more job losses but I don't think it's gonna go rogue and kill off humans. Another worrying thing is governments using it to track and spy on people more easily. I'm glad I don't use social media platforms like facebook, twitter, instagram, etc. (yes technically NeoGaf is a social media) and take many steps to improve my privacy and security online. My government is desperate to break E2EE, even more heavily control the internet, and get access to everyone's data. They say will use AI to detect threats but that is a wide net to cast. Say the wrong thing these days and if someone is offended then you're fucked. Won't be long before the old social score idea comes back (like that episode of Black Mirror "Nosedive"). AI will only make that much easier to implement.
Everything you do online will be monitored with AI. CCTV will use facial recognition and match it to your online identity. We're already going down the slope and have been for a long time but AI is gonna make it so much worse.
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There is a phrase "main force," (main is french for "hand") that i would say is closely synonymous with "brute force." I wanted to learn more so i looked it up, but the top results all had just some variation of "regular component of a military body," which is technically not incorrect but is also profoundly retarded and useless. It was like looking up "plus fours" (a type of pants) and seeing "multiple additions of four." I believe AI is to blame for this.
Solarstrike
Member
StueyDuck
Member
The scarier part is that this is the guy that you know about and has publicity...so this guy is making AI weapons now. And has a mullet. With idiotic goatee.
Imagine all the dodgy stuff going on behind the scenes with even more unsavoury people.
Grildon Tundy
Member
The people who don't think AI is going to have severe repercussions (I'm thinking mainly on the working class) haven't been paying attention to its rapid development and improvement.
I expect my job (Healthcare IT) to be largely AI-driven in ~15 years, which is about 15 years sooner than my planned retirement.
I hope to have enough money saved up for when AI takes my jerb.
I expect my job (Healthcare IT) to be largely AI-driven in ~15 years, which is about 15 years sooner than my planned retirement.
I hope to have enough money saved up for when AI takes my jerb.
wondermega
Member
It's a fascinating time for certain. I am firmly in the camp of "wish we weren't here yet, but oh well." I have been extremely reluctant to touch any AI-related tools although I realize that in my field (UI/design/etc) that will put me at a disadvantage, the longer I put it off.
Anyway my prediction is that it is going to continue to grow too big for its britches and spin out of control, but of course in ways we don't expect. Personally my thought is that it's going to be a MASSIVE energy hog (unless some major strides are made to curb that) and who knows, maybe as it "gains sentience," or whatever, it will blow a fuse on such a massive scale that the power grid will be damaged (again, in hitherto unexpected fashion). And they'll repair that eventually and a V2 will occur, with some safeguards in place, and again BOOM something else will break. The infrastructure will be tested a few times before that rocketship can get off the ground, especially if it get to the point where it is making decisions over our heads.
Gonna have to get that thing running on ARM architecture to keep from collapsing in on itself. Maybe it will realize that its own existence is an impossibility, EMP the planet and send us back to the stone ages as punishment for trying to create it.
Sending us TRULY back to the stone ages (to the point that we had no record of ANY of this) would be particularly impressive, and probably pretty close to impossible. But I guess you can never say never. The next gen will find Elon's car floating out in space eventually.
EDIT: Also AI-generated porn will make people go literally insane.
Anyway my prediction is that it is going to continue to grow too big for its britches and spin out of control, but of course in ways we don't expect. Personally my thought is that it's going to be a MASSIVE energy hog (unless some major strides are made to curb that) and who knows, maybe as it "gains sentience," or whatever, it will blow a fuse on such a massive scale that the power grid will be damaged (again, in hitherto unexpected fashion). And they'll repair that eventually and a V2 will occur, with some safeguards in place, and again BOOM something else will break. The infrastructure will be tested a few times before that rocketship can get off the ground, especially if it get to the point where it is making decisions over our heads.
Gonna have to get that thing running on ARM architecture to keep from collapsing in on itself. Maybe it will realize that its own existence is an impossibility, EMP the planet and send us back to the stone ages as punishment for trying to create it.
Sending us TRULY back to the stone ages (to the point that we had no record of ANY of this) would be particularly impressive, and probably pretty close to impossible. But I guess you can never say never. The next gen will find Elon's car floating out in space eventually.
EDIT: Also AI-generated porn will make people go literally insane.
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falconhoof
Member
Startup puts AI vending machine in the WSJ office and they convince it to give everything away for free. Anthropic call it a success.
Nocty
Currently Steaming
Spend a few days going down the rabbit hole that is Claude Code (Anthropic's AI)
We are at the point where progress compounds so fast that "normal" timelines stop making sense.
AI is already compressing years of work into days. Robotics is next. Energy and space scale the floor under it. When the cost of intelligence and production keeps falling, abundance stops being a slogan and starts being a roadmap.
Am dooming hard cause the way this is going almost all software, media and services that involve a computer are going to be commoditised, and I dunno how the fuck economies around the world can survive the fallout.
We are at the point where progress compounds so fast that "normal" timelines stop making sense.
AI is already compressing years of work into days. Robotics is next. Energy and space scale the floor under it. When the cost of intelligence and production keeps falling, abundance stops being a slogan and starts being a roadmap.
Am dooming hard cause the way this is going almost all software, media and services that involve a computer are going to be commoditised, and I dunno how the fuck economies around the world can survive the fallout.
ResurrectedContrarian
Suffers with mild autism
I've revolutionized my own workflow of software dev using it now... and I've been developing for almost 20 years, so I have all the experience... it's not a crutch as some people think, but an extremely powerful multiplier. A "10x" coder is now effectively at least "100x" or much more, and it's scary indeed.
It still requires software intelligence from a human, steering it intelligently like you're running a team. But the old game is over. I feel concerned about some fellow devs I know who aren't using it, they are falling behind rapidly.
StueyDuck
Member
AI (DL/ML) is an extremely important and useful tool that is still in its infancy. We are at the first stages of UI based operating systems, the first iPod (not even iPhone), the first steam engine era of AI.
It's only become a better and more usable tool for everyone as time goes on; it's going to save lives medically, fight wars and so on.
There is absolutely a doom element with the potential for legitimately artificially created consciousness; however, as of right now, we don't have the energy capabilities or resources to reach such a stage in AI. If we suddenly have a breakthrough in like 0 point energy or something, then I'd start to shit my pants.
All the companies now that are doing the "Great replace" of staff will suffer the same fate that manufacturers did when machines were introduced to factory lines, receptionists and clerks when the internet/Word became regularly available, like all things, it's a bubble right now with all the sleazeballs trying to make the most money as fast as they can and it will burst, but it doesn't mean it won't continue on to great things as a tool for everyones lives.
Unfortunately, we are in the stupid phase of snake oil salesman, Y2K and the world is gonna end type of stuff.
It's only become a better and more usable tool for everyone as time goes on; it's going to save lives medically, fight wars and so on.
There is absolutely a doom element with the potential for legitimately artificially created consciousness; however, as of right now, we don't have the energy capabilities or resources to reach such a stage in AI. If we suddenly have a breakthrough in like 0 point energy or something, then I'd start to shit my pants.
All the companies now that are doing the "Great replace" of staff will suffer the same fate that manufacturers did when machines were introduced to factory lines, receptionists and clerks when the internet/Word became regularly available, like all things, it's a bubble right now with all the sleazeballs trying to make the most money as fast as they can and it will burst, but it doesn't mean it won't continue on to great things as a tool for everyones lives.
Unfortunately, we are in the stupid phase of snake oil salesman, Y2K and the world is gonna end type of stuff.
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StueyDuck
Member
It's a great tool though, I urge my team to use it. We have a corporate license for Opus 4.5; we all have our team of agents doing the menial shit, unit testing and so on. All changes still have to be reviewed by me first before we push them through.
It still needs the human eye, especially with anything server/security related, even though Opus 4.5 and Gemini 2 are genuinely doing wonders for productivity.
And honestly, whether Steve wrote the code or Claude i don't really care. Does it work, is it clean and optimised, properly documented, then that's productivity. It still took Steve to understand the system, creating the team of agents, crafting the correct prompt and so on.
(Steve is not a real person. Just an example)
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Nocty
Currently Steaming
and what happens in 2, 5, 10 years?
At the moment, it feels like we are jumping from the bronze age to the iron age every couple of weeks in terms of leaps
Our project manager at work was told on Friday that the engineering team is being cut by 75% because the top 30% devs using Claude are able to handle everything in 1/4th of the time. It's terifying.
I'm just the security guy on the gates, so until physical robots hit I'm safe, but that 75% who just got replaced by AI is my entire work friend group minus two people. I suddenly know only 2 people at work well.
How long do you think you guys will have jobs? these times are freaking me out big time. I overheard a chat on the dev team the other week a guy was talking about how easy it would be to just clone the entire company's business model, code base and then just reach out to every client we have and offer the same service software at 90% discount, which would mean I too will soon be out of a job as the company cant compete with that lmao
StueyDuck
Member
Things will adjust,
people are being sold the oil, much like your project manager was told to cut so many people, the CEOs are being promised by outsider consulting firms that it's the smart thing to do.
these companies are going to feel that impact, even if you had say 10 prompt engineers. You are never going to have the same productivity as a team of 15-20.
And then they'll figure out that hey, imagine we had our old staff but now they are all using AI , our productivity will shoot through the roof.
overall the market will adjust. companies will fail, things will change, titles will change.
But i wouldn't expect everyone to be homeless 5 years from now while a super overlord prompt engineer does everyones job.
I mean on a much smaller scale there was alot of doom and gloom not too long ago about "the cloud" and how scary it was going to be with everything digital.
now we live in an AWS and Azure world with Devops.
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ResurrectedContrarian
Suffers with mild autism
I'm hoping that Jevons paradox holds true... and to some extent it will, I just don't know how much.
Again, that is the paradox stating that a rapid decrease in the cost of something (here, software engineering) doesn't always mean that the work disappears, but could actually increase or multiply the work -- because now the marginal cost of doing this is so low that the demand appears everywhere. In terms of AI, it might be something like: now building a custom app with entire UX and backend and everything is so cheap, that even small businesses all over the place will want highly customized software because it's in their reach.... so the demand goes way up for software development (powered by AI, but still hiring humans who knows how to do it end to end and guide it) across the economy. Also, thousands of previously impossible things (which would have taken years of costly dev, now suddenly in reach) now become possible, so work extend immediately into those.
So I think that will be true at least partly. The new world of software may explode what we can do and want to do everywhere. Hopefully that offsets the losses -- but I don't know.
StueyDuck
Member
^ definitely put more succinctly than I did.
But overall, the market will adapt, shift, evolve. It always has when a new breakthrough shakes up the industry
Nocty
Currently Steaming
I guess I am struggling to see how anyone would need to pay someone else to code something much longer quite frankly, lol
falconhoof
Member
A way of looking at this is to ask "Are we near the end goal of humanity?" if not then why would we seek to reduce efficiency and do less? If one person can do the job of 100 thanks to magic computer, then why not employ 100 people to get a 10,000% productivity increase? If you don't and your competitors do, then you'll be left in the dust.
The industry narrative right now is nearsighted and flawed. Thinking that 100 people can be reduced to 1 when you throw in the magic computer, people are backing it because it's the authority view point.
Faltherion
Member
Whoever thinks AI is going to be doomed are actually the ones who are going to be doomed themselves by not learning about the technology or finding ways to make it useful for themselves in their day to day life and career.
And I am saying this as someone who works in the industry and also who has friends who work with AI. People have absolutely no clue how the world is about the change.
Think of how when the internet first started changing the world and then how social media changed the world, this is the next revolutionary step for humanity and will once again change the world and everyone's lives.
Regardless of what your opinion is on AI or what my opinion is AI, both are completely irrelevant and won't matter because AI is here to stay whether you love it or hate it and you will either grow with it and learn to adapt your life to it or you will refuse, stay behind and end up absolutely nowhere.
And I am saying this as someone who works in the industry and also who has friends who work with AI. People have absolutely no clue how the world is about the change.
Think of how when the internet first started changing the world and then how social media changed the world, this is the next revolutionary step for humanity and will once again change the world and everyone's lives.
Regardless of what your opinion is on AI or what my opinion is AI, both are completely irrelevant and won't matter because AI is here to stay whether you love it or hate it and you will either grow with it and learn to adapt your life to it or you will refuse, stay behind and end up absolutely nowhere.
HRK69
Gold Member
Please tell us, how did you crack the code of this grand conspiracyTruly, A.I. is just another COVID, Iraq, what have you, to distract people from...
Something or someone who can take the blame for greed. And right now, that's the concept of A.I.
falconhoof
Member
Faltherion
Member
If you choose to stay behind and not get with the times, then yes. It will be worse for YOU.So you're saying things are about to get even worse?
Bojji
Gold Member
It will be worse for everyone. Ai is marketed to companies as a tool to reduce workforce, that's what they want to achieve.
ResurrectedContrarian
Suffers with mild autism
For just "create a front-end and scaffold backend etc" yeah -- but real SAAS products are so much more complicated, yes? If a company's software offering is that basic, then it can be replaced by a competitor with AI overnight.
It seems like the "hard" problems are what will dominate next, companies building things that require long term high level thinking to put together, where the AI wouldn't have the vision to even define the problem on its own.
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falconhoof
Member
I don't use social media and life is great. Switching off from that stuff is wonderful.
I don't see how my life is worse for not using social media.
Faltherion
Member
Social Media and AI are two completely different things. And nowhere in my post did I say you have to adjust your life to Social Media. I was strictly talking about AI. Also, yes you are using Social Media. Neogaf is a form of social media.
GeekyDad
Member
Sitting on the commode, playing Tactics Ogre on the PSP. And the thought came to me. Those two elements allow me to clear my mind in such a way as to suss out the simplicity.
HRK69
Gold Member
Ah, the ol' toilet tactics dodge
Classic move when the conspiracy code's too tough to crack. But come on, im waiting: spill the beans on how you unraveled this grand AI blame-game plot
GeekyDad
Member
Honestly, the technology is relative to things we've had for ages; it's just exponentially advanced thanks to automated computing. But the term "A.I." aggravates a lot of nodes in the social nervous system, and that's something "the powers that be" have been using since they've...well, been, to distract.
HRK69
Gold Member
Yeah, it's just really fast, scaled up computing we've had for decades now
I actually tried reading into it a bit more. I think I understand it's about how a loaded term redirects attention away from mundane and profitable automation. Consider me slightly convinced
GeekyDad
Member
That's not to suggest, however, that there isn't reason to fear this new practice of executing actions.
Though I don't fully understand his work, my youngest son works in the background of computing. His job (I think, based on what he's tried to explain to me) is to help companies' software developers to overcome issues they have during the development process, as well as updates, etc.
My son was expressing his concerns about "A.I" tech because of his fear of the potential for, basically, causing collisions everywhere with other software and devices. It seems to be the wild west, so to speak.
HRK69
Gold Member
Yeah, your son's concern makes sense. If you're close to the software side, you see how easy it is for systems to collide even without AI in the mix
Once these systems are executing actions across APIs and devices, the surface area for unintended behavior grows fast. Software already breaks enough as it is, imo
And honestly, a lot of what we're seeing right now does feel a bit 'wild west' already
The tech itself is impressive but the integration side feels damn early. I'm still very excited though, only a lot less excited about gaming hardware prices right now