Amazon/Target/Wal-Mart/BB/Gamestop PS4 Black Friday Bundles are up $399.99 GTA V-TLOU

I went ahead and took the plunge on the GTAV/TLOU bundle. I said I wouldn't buy a new system until late next year, but I lack self control apparently. Also bought Evil Within for $30 and Dragon Age Inquisition. Almost got Mordor also,but decided against it.

Might as well check out the Xbone deals as well since I'm in the spending mood.
 
Loudninja said:
The deal last until Dec 2nd on Amazon atleast.
Click to expand...

Sony really needs to resile from that stance and do it for the whole of December. They might have lost November, and possibly by not all that much, but if they keep that deal all throughout December, they will clean house.
 
EatMyFace said:
From #1 and #3? That's highly unlikely.
It's not just Amazon though, its #1 at Gamestop too and #4. (XB1 is #14)

You just can't ignore this data. PS4 has been selling better than the XB1 in the biggest online retailers on the biggest shopping day of the year. Then we have anecdotal evidence that XB1 is selling well at Target which is where it has the best deal.

So do you think Target > Amazon/Gamestop?

November could go to either at this point. It should be a close month.
Click to expand...

I wish I could say it'd be close, but I honestly just don't see it. I can't 100% say with confidence it'll be as close as people are thinking. My only reason, incidentally enough, is b/c of that PR MS threw out a while ago.

Selling 3x as many in the first two weeks of Nov that you sold in the last week of a month where you announced a price cut coming for the next week (thus cutting into potential sales, surely), just doesn't sound that impressive once you know how much XBO sold in October and split that into a weekly average (which obviously isn't 100% reliable).

If I'm right on this, XBO sold about 250k in October, right? So that's an average of 62.5k weekly. For w/e reason I'm also thinking it may've sold 280k, so let's say the other weekly average is 70k. So for the first 2 weeks of November it maybe sold anywhere btwn 187.5k and 210k. Then let's say it dropped off to a 2x of that average for the 3rd week, so that's btwn 125k and 140k. Then let's just be friendly and say it did only that weekly average, so that's another btwn 62.5 and 70k.

So right now, before BF, that's anywhere btwn 375k and 420k. BF accounts for 90% of sales of the month, right? So that means XBO could probably sell btwn 712k and 798k for November. Damn good actually, and higher and the 550 or so I was thinking earlier.

Problem is, it probably most definitely sold quite a bit less than either 62.5k or 70k in that last October week. That's pretty much a certainty. So it means everything I've said up to now is just high-end numbers. I just don't see a $50 price cut boosting sales that much. And if XBO somehow manages to hit either of those highs and that's the highest selling for Nov, that...might not be so hot.

I think the 360 was hitting 1.2-1.7 million at its peak in Nov, and around 820k+ on the lower ends (just going back to '08). Those are the kind of numbers a #1 needs to be hitting in November, and one can argue that even if the market is contracting, that should still be true here, if not in fact those numbers should be a bit higher on average. 800k or so should be the lower baseline for a #2 in November, not the high for a #1, even if the market is contracting (which it probably has; there's just a lot more core/hardcore gamers than there was before too).

And honestly, MS needs those 360 type numbers and then some, b/c US and UK is all they've really got. I mean, they had a decent China launch too but I don't know if they can rely on that long-term. They kinda screwed up w/ other developing markets and "tier-2" markets, too.

700k or so in Nov in their strongest market is actually kind of pathetic when you think about it.

Damn, I really wouldn't mind recalling XBO's October numbers right now; there's just zero way I'm wading through a 100+ page thread to find them!
 
samar11 said:
Why not? lol
Click to expand...

Becuase we don't know how much shipped/sold over this weekend for both vs a lot for both and in retail it seems to be more X1 and online more PS4. Plus we have no real estimate of how fa the X1 was ahead through the first few weeks.
 
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
I wish I could say it'd be close, but I honestly just don't see it. I can't 100% say with confidence it'll be as close as people are thinking. My only reason, incidentally enough, is b/c of that PR MS threw out a while ago.

Selling 3x as many in the first two weeks of Nov that you sold in the last week of a month where you announced a price cut coming for the next week (thus cutting into potential sales, surely), just doesn't sound that impressive once you know how much XBO sold in October and split that into a weekly average (which obviously isn't 100% reliable).

If I'm right on this, XBO sold about 250k in October, right? So that's an average of 62.5k weekly. For w/e reason I'm also thinking it may've sold 280k, so let's say the other weekly average is 70k. So for the first 2 weeks of November it maybe sold anywhere btwn 187.5k and 210k. Then let's say it dropped off to a 2x of that average for the 3rd week, so that's btwn 125k and 140k. Then let's just be friendly and say it did only that weekly average, so that's another btwn 62.5 and 70k.

So right now, before BF, that's anywhere btwn 375k and 420k. BF accounts for 90% of sales of the month, right? So that means XBO could probably sell btwn 712k and 798k for November. Damn good actually, and higher and the 550 or so I was thinking earlier.

Problem is, it probably most definitely sold quite a bit less than either 62.5k or 70k in that last October week. That's pretty much a certainty. So it means everything I've said up to now is just high-end numbers. I just don't see a $50 price cut boosting sales that much. And if XBO somehow manages to hit either of those highs and that's the highest selling for Nov, that...might not be so hot.

I think the 360 was hitting 1.2-1.7 million at its peak in Nov, and around 820k+ on the lower ends (just going back to '08). Those are the kind of numbers a #1 needs to be hitting in November, and one can argue that even if the market is contracting, that should still be true here, if not in fact those numbers should be a bit higher on average. 800k or so should be the lower baseline for a #2 in November, not the high for a #1, even if the market is contracting (which it probably has; there's just a lot more core/hardcore gamers than there was before too).

And honestly, MS needs those 360 type numbers and then some, b/c US and UK is all they've really got. I mean, they had a decent China launch too but I don't know if they can rely on that long-term. They kinda screwed up w/ other developing markets and "tier-2" markets, too.

700k or so in Nov in their strongest market is actually kind of pathetic when you think about it.

Damn, I really wouldn't mind recalling XBO's October numbers right now; there's just zero way I'm wading through a 100+ page thread to find them!
Click to expand...

You're on the right track, but about 90K too high. Xbox One is about 40k average for October.
 
The Destiny bundle is once again $399 on Amazon.... thing done went from 449, to 399, to 439, back to 399 in one day

EDIT... it says 399 but when you click on it it is still at the 439 price point so idk.

EDIT 2 - Back to 439.
 
Lemondish said:
That's where my friends and I are with the Xbone, except there really isn't any first party titles coming for ages. Literally no games in 2015 until the holiday, I think. The 3rd party exclusives I think I'd enjoy, but it's smarter to wait until next holiday and by then the thing will be 249 with TR and a bunch of other games.

I don't agree that Sony needed better prices this holiday. They've been absolutely kicking Microsoft's ass the entire year. One or two months being outsold by a desperate price drop that can only be hemorrhaging money doesn't seem nearly that big of a deal. Especially when Sony will be making bank this month either way it goes. MS will likely win the month, but Sony will keep pace and immediately overcome them in the new year all while sitting high over a greater worldwide lead, a fantastic lineup in the first three months, all while riding the hype from what may turn out to be a really special event early Dec.
Click to expand...

This, especially the 2nd para.

Sony have been able to maintain a launch price point on the PS4. They're still selling truckloads of units same a MS, but they're going into 2015 in a position to control exactly when they make their official price cut.
 
Superman00 said:
You're on the right track, but about 90K too high. Xbox One is about 40k average for October.
Click to expand...

Trust me said:
178K~

Edit: Superman is faster than I^^
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Yo thanks guys; that was killing me for a moment!

And with that, yeah, I don't see XBO taking November. Not unless BF does double the sales for them it does for PS4, and that isn't happening.

EDIT: I think I kinda fucked my math up some, too. That's why you don't do math in midnight hours unless you're a mathematician ;)

So now that we know XBO did 44.5k average weekly in October, that'd give them a 133.5k amount in those first two weeks. Then let's say they only did 2x that last October week in the 3rd week, so that gives them 89k, and let's be generous and give them another 44.5k before BF. That's 267k so far. So now on BF they do 240k. All in all that's....507k.

...507,000.

No way in hell XBO is taking November with that kind of number. And that's the high-end!
 
Interesting thing about amazons best selling list... The XB1 only has a single console in the top 50 while there are 3 PS4 consoles in the top 50. Really interested in how this month turns out.
 
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
Yo thanks guys; that was killing me for a moment!

And with that, yeah, I don't see XBO taking November. Not unless BF does double the sales for them it does for PS4, and that isn't happening.

EDIT: I think I kinda fucked my math up some, too. That's why you don't do math in midnight hours unless you're a mathematician ;)

So now that we know XBO did 44.5k average weekly in October, that'd give them a 133.5k amount in those first two weeks. Then let's say they only did 2x that last October week in the 3rd week, so that gives them 89k, and let's be generous and give them another 44.5k before BF. That's 267k so far. So now on BF they do 240k. All in all that's....507k.

...507,000.

No way in hell XBO is taking November with that kind of number. And that's the high-end!
Click to expand...

...do you honestly believe XBO will only manage 500k this month?
 
theprodigy said:
...do you honestly believe XBO will only manage 500k this month?
Click to expand...

I think it will do more but that's not really the point.

The point is that the statement of tripled sales from last week of october is meaningless in the big picture because that last week of october, with the pricecut&bundles already announced everywhere, was a slow week.

Those who parrot the "3 weeks of leading in november" narrative don't take into account that judging from the stats MS gave, the lead was not big by any means because you can't just pretend that ps4 sold 0 units on those 3 weeks.

At the end of the day, BF will be the bigger chunk of sales for both consoles so unless you want to believe only the anecdotal evidences that support your wishes, waiting for real data from the platform holders or NPD is the only wise choice.
 
theprodigy said:
...do you honestly believe XBO will only manage 500k this month?
Click to expand...

I honestly thinks its more than that. They had stock already in time for the price cut on shelves and whatever they sent to retailers for the holiday rush. But i wouldnt expect a jump to the 1M thats for sure. Id say between 700-800k which is pretty good. There were some big titles for November (GTAV,HMCC, COD:AW, DA:I, FC4) too. Also some probably held off in October for the holiday season as well to get the better deal for BF.
 
matty2Dfraud said:
They're trying pretty hard to convince themselves they chose the right console. I dont even know how people could enjoying gaming on something that doesn't win npd every month.... yuck.
Click to expand...
C'mon you're making me sound like a fanboy. I am most certainly not. I've stuck up for XBO more than a few times in these threads, and have called out the PS4 on points too. I just don't get emotional about it, and that helps me use numbers and probable facts to come up w/ estimates like that 507k.

Don't even have a PS4 (yet), btw.

I'm just working with the numbers, y'all. And here's a history lesson; in its 2nd November the Sega Saturn also had a hell of a lineup and arguably better deal than the PS1 or N64...and managed around 500k....and still lost to both those systems.

It's not about having a (maybe subjective) better deal or objectively equal or lower price here; any of those two could be big factors yes but we don't truly know yet. But historical evidence also shows that those things alone don't automatically guarantee a win; we've seen it w/ Saturn, Dreamcast, OG Xbox, Gamecube, PS3 and a lot of other systems.

You can't really fault me for working with the numbers, and I was just using averages. Maybe my earlier guess (700-790k) could be right after all, but just looking at the numbers and patterns I don't think it'll be getting that high. In fact I think a lot of folks are going to be shocked next NPD, but if I'm wrong so be it. Nothing personal.

Fdkn said:
The point is that the statement of tripled sales from last week of october is meaningless in the big picture because that last week of october, with the pricecut&bundles already announced everywhere, was a slow week.

Those who parrot the "3 weeks of leading in november" narrative don't take into account that judging from the stats MS gave, the lead was not big by any means because you can't just pretend that ps4 sold 0 units on those 3 weeks.
Click to expand...
Yep. Neverminding the fact I was using an average split for that week, when it was probably just a bit lower. I'm guessing a bulk of October sales came in the first week or so coming off of September, same w/ PS4 most likely. If anything I'm being nice w/ that 500k guess but you never really know how people will sway during holiday shopping.
 
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
It's not about having a (maybe subjective) better deal or objectively equal or lower price here; any of those two could be big factors yes but we don't truly know yet. But historical evidence also shows that those things alone don't automatically guarantee a win; we've seen it w/ Saturn, Dreamcast, OG Xbox, Gamecube, PS3 and a lot of other systems.
Click to expand...

When did we ever see that with PS3?
 
Ursiform said:
When did we ever see that with PS3?
Click to expand...
It being outsold in November by the 360 while having an equal value and possibly better bundle? Can't say for sure, but I'm certain that's happened more than once, and we'd have to be talking post-2009 and such here.

But that was absolutely the case w/ the other systems, that much I know.
 
Conduit said:
Aaron Greenberg :

sales were incredible, grateful for all the support and new fans.

https://mobile.twitter.com/aarongreenberg/status/538754639580397568

#XboxOne sold out @Target here in California, "whole pallet sold out" per employee here. #BlackFriday pic.twitter.com/NKeeoLsFxl

https://mobile.twitter.com/aarongreenberg/status/538419170472247297

Well, MS already celebrate. :-)
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Dude probably hasn't even read any work email.

Grief.exe said:
I don't see too much value in game pack-ins.

I've already played The Last of Us on PS3, I would prefer to get GTAV on PC, and the console is the normal MSRP.

PS4 is Black Friday 2015 for me.
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Newegg had the console alone for 330 a few days ago.
 
I don't see too much value in game pack-ins. I've already played The Last of Us on PS3, I would prefer to get GTAV on PC, and the console is the normal MSRP.

PS4 is Black Friday 2015 for me.

Ursiform said:
Newegg had the console alone for 330 a few days ago.
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I was looking at the same deal on ebay as well.

Just can't justify the purchase when the only exclusive game I am looking forward to is Bloodborne, especially when stacked up to the shear amount of exclusives on Wii U currently.

Black Friday 2014 was Wii U, Black Friday 2015 maybe a PS4.
 
Ursiform said:
350 with Batman and... crap I dunno someone finish this bundle for me. The Order is a bit too M-rated.
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Best case scenario ~$250-$275 with no games.

Will pick Bloodborne up for ~$20.

I don't think these deals will be outside the realm of possibility considering comparable discounts this year.
 
Conduit said:
Aaron Greenberg :

sales were incredible, grateful for all the support and new fans.

https://mobile.twitter.com/aarongreenberg/status/538754639580397568

#XboxOne sold out @Target here in California, "whole pallet sold out" per employee here. #BlackFriday pic.twitter.com/NKeeoLsFxl

https://mobile.twitter.com/aarongreenberg/status/538419170472247297

Well, MS already celebrate. :-)
Click to expand...

We're getting per pallet sales updates from MS now?

I thought it was bad when they were jizzing over a couple of weeks sales.
 
Conduit said:
Aaron Greenberg :

sales were incredible, grateful for all the support and new fans.

https://mobile.twitter.com/aarongreenberg/status/538754639580397568

#XboxOne sold out @Target here in California, "whole pallet sold out" per employee here. #BlackFriday pic.twitter.com/NKeeoLsFxl

https://mobile.twitter.com/aarongreenberg/status/538419170472247297

Well, MS already celebrate. :-)
Click to expand...

Haha...this post literally made me laugh out loud. Good thing it happened before eating my toast.

Is the Greenberg guy an MS executive? If so, what else is he going to say?

And that Target picture...were those XBOs with the additional $50 GC? shocking!

Why don't we just wait until the weekend is over...some people are way too fanatic over this.

Sean*O said:
They sold a whole pallet!
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Haha.
 
vesvci said:
Haha...this post literally made me laugh out loud. Good thing it happened before eating my toast.

Is the Greenberg guy an MS executive? If so, what else is he going to say?

And that Target picture...were those XBOs with the additional $50 GC? shocking!

Why don't we just wait until the weekend is over...some people are way too fanatic over this.



Haha.
Click to expand...

They are funny. They are practically giving the things away at the minute and having to act excited about it whilst knowing that they are in the shit at the next board meeting.
 
Is this thread even about the bundle anymore? lol.

Mine shipped a few minutes ago; foolishly I had my bundle shipped to my work address and they are closed on the estimated date of delivery. :( Ah, well.
 
Sean*O said:
They sold a whole pallet!
Click to expand...

Who knows when that photo was taken. Chances are the PS4's will be gone by now too. Target had the best Xbox One deal. PS4 is winning on Amazon/Gamestop, two of the biggest games retailers. I'm sure both will do amazing and that's good by me.
 
Grief.exe said:
I was looking at the same deal on ebay as well.

Just can't justify the purchase when the only exclusive game I am looking forward to is Bloodborne, especially when stacked up to the shear amount of exclusives on Wii U currently.

Black Friday 2014 was Wii U, Black Friday 2015 maybe a PS4.
Click to expand...

I know the Wii U has fantastic exclusives, but it has barely any third party presence. Considering like 80% or more of these new console lineups are made by third party multiplatform releases, you're giving up a lot of games in favour of a slow trickle of quality exclusives.

Unless you have a gaming PC and prefer it, I don't see how the Wii U, even with its exclusives, could possibly compete on value against two systems that actually have a future.
 
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