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Analysis: US projected to have second-lowest crime rate since 1990

P

ponpo

( ≖‿≖)
http://thehill.com/homenews/news/34...d-to-have-second-lowest-crime-rate-since-1990
report

The United States is on course this year to see one of its lowest crime rates in decades, according to new research published Wednesday.

A study published by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law surveyed data from the 30 largest cities in the country to determine that the U.S. is on track in 2017 for the second-lowest crime rate since 1990, above only 2013. Using historical trends, the authors predict that the 2017 overall crime rate will be just under 4,000 crimes per 100,000 people.
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The drop is credited largely to significant reductions in several of America's largest cities, including a 25.6 percent decrease in Detroit, a 20.5 percent drop in Houston and a 19.1 percent drop in New York.

Another key finding of the study was that Chicago's murder rate, which is the highest in the country, is projected to drop this year by 2.4 percent. In 2016, 762 people were murdered in the city, compared to 472 that have been reported so far in 2017.
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President Trump frequently criticized Chicago for its murder rate during the campaign, proclaiming himself a "law and order" candidate who would lower crime rates through his support for tough police measures.

Violent crime is seeing a slight drop of 0.6 percent in 2017, driven mainly by reductions in violent crime in Washington, D.C., and Chicago.
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Some cities, however, are still experiencing sharp localized increases in crime, most notably in Charlotte, N.C. Charlotte has seen 63 murders so far in 2017, on course to beat last year's final total of 67.

Charlotte police have been responding to their city's sharp rise in murders this year with an aggressive campaign to remove illegal guns from city streets. In March, Charlotte's police chief told reporters that his office was focusing on repeat offenders.

"We’re in the hot spots. We’re seizing guns, taking illegal guns off the street, we’re focusing on those repeat offenders. We’re also looking at suspects who are escalating their violence. If I go from pointing a gun at you to shooting at a house to shooting at a car, it’s not illogical that you might shoot a person," Chief Kerr Putney said at the time.
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H

HStallion

Now what's the next step in your master plan?
In general the world is getting safer but we're just more aware of the atrocities that occur these days which makes it seem like things are getting worse or staying the same.
 
W

Windam

Scaley member
The American Carnage ended then and there with Trump's inauguration. He said it was going to himself, you know. Great guy, doing great work. Tremendous!
 
W

Westbahnhof

Banned
I really hope the US can reduce the homicide rate somehow.
I know it's not productive, but I keep comparing it to Western Europe and the difference is jarring.
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
HStallion said:
In general the world is getting safer but we're just more aware of the atrocities that occur these days which makes it seem like things are getting worse or staying the same.
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This. The world largely continues to be safer than it ever has been. We just hear about every little thing that happens now. If someone steals a candy bar, it's news. lol
 
F

Freeza Under The Shower

Member
entremet said:
Freakonomics had an interesting thesis on lowering American crime rates--abortion.
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Already proven wrong, I believe, due to both a significant error in his math, and since the drop corresponds perfectly with removing lead from gasoline. Abortion laws however, were reversed in between then and now.

Also, it was aimed specifically at the 1990's drop in New York, for which there are dozens of competing theories, but the reality is that removing lead from gasoline is most direct correlate / factor.

I'm writing this from memory though, so if this is all wrong you can blame that.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
entremet said:
Freakonomics had an interesting thesis on lowering American crime rates--abortion.
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Lead reduction (which is still dangerously high in many places, unfortunately) seems to be the single biggest factor that has helped lower the crime rate.

EDIT: As noted above.
 
H

Hubbl3

Unconfirmed Member
But Keebler™ Foghorn Leghorn said multiple times that there's a violent crime wave sweeping the nation
 
M

MetroidPrimeRib

Banned
HStallion said:
In general the world is getting safer but we're just more aware of the atrocities that occur these days which makes it seem like things are getting worse or staying the same.
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In general I think that the notion that the world is less violent then it was is true, mostly because imperialism stopped being so visible with violence. You no longer chop off the hands of a Congolese child because his father couldn't make the quota.
 
A

AYF 001

Member
Westbahnhof said:
I'm think I recall it'd still be a big difference if we ignore guns, plus, small(this is probably the trick) countries like Switzerland are full of guns with a fraction of the homicide.
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Pretty sure it's illegal to privately possess ammo in Switzerland, so their guns are kinda useless otherwise.
 
H

hobozero

Member
QuantumBro said:
Trump did it!
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If he takes credit for it, it makes him awesoem and everyone will love him...
... but he ran on "American carnage"...
...but he needs people to love him so he should tweet about this...
...but his AG just said crime is at an all time high...

headexplode.gif
 
B

BobNewbert31

Member
Westbahnhof said:
I'm think I recall it'd still be a big difference if we ignore guns, plus, small(this is probably the trick) countries like Switzerland are full of guns with a fraction of the homicide.
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From the limited research I just performed, it seems the majority of gun owners in Switzerland are militia trained men who opted to keep their rifles after mandatory arms training whereas your average gun owner in the US has little training.
 
E

Erevador

Member
Zee-Row said:
If you listen to republicans you would think Chicago is Afghanistan or something.
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60 people were shot in Chicago over the course of the July 4th weekend. 52 over memorial day weekend.

That's an insane amount of violence. Your Afghanistan comparison isn't as absurd as one might think.
 
W

Westbahnhof

Banned
AYF 001 said:
Well, that's what I get for being too lazy to Google. I knew it was hard to get ammo though. Mostly I remember hearing gun nut types going "But Switzerland has guns!" but then getting upset whenever somewhere in the US attempts to impose any of those same regulations on ammo.
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I'd love these regulations everywhere.
Well, besides the one about some nationalities maybe..
 
H

hoserx

Member
Erevador said:
60 people were shot in Chicago over the course of the July 4th weekend. 52 over memorial day weekend.

That's an insane amount of violence. Your Afghanistan comparison isn't as absurd as one might think.
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Sad but true. Chicago is a warzone.
 
G

Guevara

Member
I wonder how low the rate is if you exclude the couple of hot zones in a handful of cities like Chicago, etc.
 
R

Random Painted HIghway

Member
Interesting. I'm curious to see what has happened to the rates of Hispanic (and other foreign minorities) reported crimes in the wake of the trump election. Reports of criminal activity is not necessarily a real reflection of reduced criminal activity in some cases unfortunately. But I'm not breaking any ground with that point.
 
T

tonysidaway

Member
WedgeX said:
Yet the fear of crime ever increases.

We need to stop being so damn afraid.
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I don't know if American victimisation surveys do this, but the British Crime Survey nowadays includes questions recording people's subjective sense of crime trends. The results I've seen suggest that when it comes to crime rates in our neighborhood we tend to have a realistic perception (crime rates have also fallen steadily here since the early nineties) but when asked about national crime rates we tend to feel they're rising. I've often found myself in discussions with people who refuse to believe me when I say that rates are falling.
 
WaterAstro

WaterAstro

Member
Actually, I wonder how much of this is because of how illegal immigrants are too afraid to call the police in fears of being deported, and you have shits like Arpaio withholding justice because they're racist.

A crime isn't tracked unless it's been called in.
 
H

HawksWinStanley

Member
Zee-Row said:
If you listen to republicans you would think Chicago is Afghanistan or something.
Click to expand...

Erevador said:
60 people were shot in Chicago over the course of the July 4th weekend. 52 over memorial day weekend.

That's an insane amount of violence. Your Afghanistan comparison isn't as absurd as one might think.
Click to expand...

I think the disparity is that the violence is concentrated in gang infested neighborhoods. So yeah, technically these neighborhoods that are apart of Chicago literally are war zones, but residents or tourists that never get anywhere close to the south or west sides would never know there's an issue. And since the victims are all other gang members or poor people caught in the crossfire nobody seems to care.
 
C

clevbrowns94

Member
Lead exposure. High incarceration. (somewhat) improved economy. And increase in abortion.

But how great it is that Trump got to win the election in part because of his lie that crime is at an all time high, pointing to pockets of increased crime like Chicago as an example of the whole nation. And his base bought the lie.
 
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