• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

Analyst: "10-12 mln '360s by Year-End"

DarkMage619

DarkMage619

$MSFT
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2358&Itemid=2

The mid-year forecast is greater than Xbox boss Peter Moore's January predictions of 4-5.5 million sold by the end of June.

McNealy said that although Microsoft had to withdraw its initial 90-day target of 2.7-3 million units sold, he believes it was "likely an inventory issue of 1-2 weeks, making it non-material."

He continued, saying that he is no longer concerned with any potential adverse effects that an Xbox 360 shortage would have on publishers' March-quarter results.
Click to expand...

Many analysts here at GAF seemed to believe that because of the 'poor' XBOX 360 launch M$ had pretty much given nextp-gen to SON¥. Is that theory still strongly believed here? Does it even matter when the PS3 relases; would the PS3 simply take over whenever it comes out?

The Dark One
 
Hmm...this is getting a bit interesting, with the PS3 delayy almost certain atleast until late 06' (maybe even early 07'), and Rev not in sight until latyer this year, MS could have a 8-10 million unit advantage when both arrive on the market.

Thats a lot to overcome, of course not impossible but it seems like MS did it right this gen (In Eu and US only of course, JPN is a nonfactor for them)
 
Assuming they can even produce that many. I still have yet to see a store with 360's in vast supply.
 
End of 2007 is all that matters. That will probably tell you how the generation is going to go. Predicting anything else is just pissing in the wind.
 
x units by x time of the year blah blah blah
they can't even get out any units right now so how can they expect more by year's end :lol
 
i think in the mind of the public- sony is cool. microsoft and nintendo are not cool. sony would have to make a huge mistake to not take the market again this generation. it would take a way bigger mistake than simply launching one holiday season after microsoft.
 
DarkMage619 said:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2358&Itemid=2



Many analysts here at GAF seemed to believe that because of the 'poor' XBOX 360 launch M$ had pretty much given nextp-gen to SON¥. Is that theory still strongly believed here? Does it even matter when the PS3 relases; would the PS3 simply take over whenever it comes out?

The Dark One
Click to expand...

"Many analists here at GAF".....................................................

What do you mean ?

Anyways......10-12 millions 360. Well...........Pfff........................................

Too many for me: I think ca. 8 millions or less, that's depend how many 360 Microsoft can produce and when Halo 3 will ship.

If Halo 3 > 2006 =====>>> 6-8 millions 360 in the world.
If Halo 3 = 2006 =====>>> 8-10 millions 360 in the world.

Well, this is only my opinion. Not more, not less.
 
If PS3 comes out this year, no prob.
If the PS3 comes out in 2007, Microsoft will have gain it's avantage it just lost before.
 
no

in 4 years Xbox sell 24 mil units, in 4 months X360 sell 2 mil (perhaps), how it could if the production is not fast?

what kind of analyst is this? Marryl Lynch? :D
 
I'm kind of expecting ~10m by years end, it wouldn't be that surprising IMO

I don't think much has changed with regards to PS3 and its catch-up, though. The system may be delayed a few months in Japan, but if it hits the US by Xmas, it'll only be a small delay till they hit the "cross-over" point and overtake 360 in terms of absolute install base, vs what it would have been before. Once PS3 gets going in all territories, we should be looking at 3 engines of full-speed userbase expansion, to MS's two (probably lesser speed engines at that, assuming so longer-term supply issues on Sony's end), so I doubt whether PS3 overtakes X360 is a matter of if, but when.
 
Himuro said:
:lol

What?

I don't think this is gong to happen. Not with ps2 kicking ass this year.
Click to expand...


So basically people would hold off on buying the 360 because they can go and get a PS2? Perhaps SON¥ shouldn't even bother putting PS3 out, PS2 is all they need...

The Dark One
 
Even if the predictions come true, remember those numbers are for the year ending Dec. 31st. Let's assume that 11 million are sold by then. How many will be sold by November when both the Rev and PS2 will likely both be out? 7-8 million? That's still a very sizeable lead, however the Playstation brand, Blu-Ray and Microsoft inability to get any traction in Japan will ensure the lead will not last for long IMO.
 
How many 360's has Microsoft sold so far? Less than 2 million? So they would have to increase their userbase by more than 5x in 10 months. And reach almost half of the original Xbox sales. That doesn't seem very possible even if they could produce that many.
 
Too many variables. Depends on PS3 production, release date, and pricing. A $450 PS3 'tard pack in November would help 360 demand much more than a $350 PS3 in late summer or early fall, especially if they can only produce a couple million PS3s this year. Imagine if the 360 gets a $50 price cut, and you are comparing one 'tard pack at $250 to another at $400-$450. Who the hell knows at this point.
 
-Damien- said:
nope, I say 5-6 million is the most by the end of the year, I just don't see x360 sales is picking up again
Click to expand...



like stated above, there are too many factors, anything could change at any given time. but considering they had 1.5 million sold by the end of december, id say 5-6 million by the end of the year is a ridiculously low estimate, even by the most pessimistic standards.
 
Himuro said:
Doesn't matter. No matter what system comes out in 2006 or 2007, if ps2 got a price drop to about 100 dollars or less, ps2 would ass rape all competition, ps3 or not.
Click to expand...

funny you should mention that! because my next console purchases are definately going to be revolution and a ps2.

i will get a ps3 eventually but the ps2 will do me just fine until the ps3's first price drop.
 
Maybe I'm falling into Sony's trap, but I'm getting more bullish on the 360. 10m by the end of the year is definitely possible, and I really do think there's a significant shift of power between the console manufacturers.
 
-Damien- said:
nope, I say 5-6 million is the most by the end of the year, I just don't see x360 sales is picking up again
Click to expand...

Picking up again? When has demand fallen off at all? They are still selling 100% of what they put on shelves, as far as I've heard.

LiquidMamba said:
How many 360's has Microsoft sold so far? Less than 2 million? So they would have to increase their userbase by more than 5x in 10 months. And reach almost half of the original Xbox sales. That doesn't seem very possible even if they could produce that many.
Click to expand...

QFT.

beermonkey@tehbias said:
Too many variables. Depends on PS3 production, release date, and pricing. A $450 PS3 'tard pack in November would help 360 demand much more than a $350 PS3 in late summer or early fall, especially if they can only produce a couple million PS3s this year. Imagine if the 360 gets a $50 price cut, and you are comparing one 'tard pack at $250 to another at $400-$450. Who the hell knows at this point.
Click to expand...

QTF.
 
metropolis said:
funny you should mention that! because my next console purchases are definately going to be revolution and a ps2.

i will get a ps3 eventually but the ps2 will do me just fine until the ps3's first price drop.
Click to expand...


but wouldnt the money you spend on the PS2 negate the money saved on the PS3 price drop o_O ????
 
Himuro said:
Doesn't matter. No matter what system comes out in 2006 or 2007, if ps2 got a price drop to about 100 dollars or less, ps2 would ass rape all competition, ps3 or not.
Click to expand...


The thing I don't understand is how an increase in PS2 sales, helps PS3, or hurts the 360. Let's say that the PS2 does outsell the 360 this year. Does that mean that developers would scale back 360 development and move back to PS2? Would that be a reason to increase PS3 development? Also lets not forget that there STILL hasn't been any significant information on the PS3 since E3 last year. Are everyday consumers still walking around with fresh images of Killzone 3 in their minds? I am thinking the longer SON¥ stays quiet the worse off they are.

The Dark One
 
When the NES came out, the 2600, which had been a monstrous success for years, was cut to $50. Guess what, people moved on. There is interest in new technology. The potential customer base for 360 and PS3 this year are mostly people who either already own a PS2 or who don't want five-year-old technology. Cheap PS2 doesn't mean a goddamn thing to them.
 
so it took microsoft 4 years to get 20 million and now they're saying it'll only take 1 year to do 10 million for the 360.. EVEN with the fact that the original xbox was doing better at this point...

I think these anaylsts are bored and are reaching for material.
 
9 million tops (by the end of the year).

I don't see the system doing too much better than the first Xbox. 5 million in NA is being very generous, considering the best the Xbox ever did. Then I'd say 3 million for Europe and Australia. Leaving another million for Japan/Asia and room for their magical counting fairies. Given the production problem and the depute of the PS3 and Revolution they'll likely sell even less.

The PSP only did about 9 million and that was with 3 million selling in Japan. It would take an E3 like no other for MS, both Sony and Nintendo completely botching their launch (hardware totals and software), and Halo 3 (or its replacement) for MS to sell 12 million 360's be the end of the year.
 
JJConrad said:
9 million tops.

I don't see the system doing too much better than the first Xbox. 5 million in NA is being very generous, considering the best the Xbox ever did. Then I'd say 3 million for Europe and Australia. Leaving another million for Japan/Asia and room for their magical counting fairies. Given the production problem and the depute of the PS3 and Revolution they'll likely sell even less.
Click to expand...

Wait, are you talking about first year sales, or overall sales? I'm thinking overall, from the way you sound.

Do you seriously think 360 will sell 1/2 of what XBox did, when all is said and done??
 
Saying that Xbox 1 was doing better at this point is a little silly. They were able to produce more, so of course they sold more. The hype and demand are much stronger now than in 2001/2002. If they could have produced three times as many systems this last three months, they would have sold every single one of them, and Xbox 1 would not have been comparably better.
 
metropolis said:
i think in the mind of the public- sony is cool. microsoft and nintendo are not cool. sony would have to make a huge mistake to not take the market again this generation. it would take a way bigger mistake than simply launching one holiday season after microsoft.
Click to expand...


not according to Snoop Dogg !! :lol :lol :lol
 
beermonkey@tehbias said:
When the NES came out, the 2600, which had been a monstrous success for years, was cut to $50. Guess what, people moved on.
Click to expand...

That's not a fair comparison since the market went into a crash a year before the NES got released and ppl were really tired of the Atari 2600 by then. People nowadays still aren't really tired of the PS2, especially since there are still promising games coming out for it. Also, there hasn't been any crash.

I agree with the rest of your post though.
 
beermonkey@tehbias said:
When the NES came out, the 2600, which had been a monstrous success for years, was cut to $50. Guess what, people moved on. There is interest in new technology. The potential customer base for 360 and PS3 this year are mostly people who either already own a PS2 or who don't want five-year-old technology. Cheap PS2 doesn't mean a goddamn thing to them.
Click to expand...

The NES was a big BIG revolution in the industry of interactive entertainment.

360 and PS3 not at all: always olny an improvment in horsepower and nothing more.

There's a BIG BIG difference between the Atari-Nintendo passage then the PS2/XBX-PS3360 passage.

Perhaps the Revolution will really change radically the videogame's industry.

Who knows ?

What the NES has made, the Revolution can do: it has the potential.
 
Half the Xbox's userbase in a year's time? LOL. Good luck with that.

Does anyone know how much the PS2 sold in its first year worldwide?
 
Oblivion said:
Does anyone know how much the PS2 sold in its first year worldwide?
Click to expand...

About 10 million from the Japanese launch. For 6/7 of the 12 months it was a Japan-only affair.
 
gofreak said:
About 10 million from the Japanese launch. For 6/7 of the 12 months it was a Japan-only affair.
Click to expand...
I don't know where you're getting that 10 million from, in 2000 the PS2 sold ~5 million in Japan (~3.8 million) and the US (~1.1 million) combined and that accounts for 10 months because it launched March 4th in Japan.
 
The only thing holding MS back from 10 Million is production. If the units are on the shelves, they'll make it. PS2 has averaged about 20M consoles per year for the last 6 years... I think MS can get half of that.
 
I think it largely depends on whether output can be cranked up to catch up to demand, and the demand spikes games like GRAW and Oblivion will cause.

We need at least two more months of NPD data, a MS updated forecast and a PS3 release date to make this a meaningful discussion. But so far, outside of Asia, MS seems to be selling all they can make.
 
DarkMage619 said:
The thing I don't understand is how an increase in PS2 sales, helps PS3, or hurts the 360. Let's say that the PS2 does outsell the 360 this year. Does that mean that developers would scale back 360 development and move back to PS2? Would that be a reason to increase PS3 development? Also lets not forget that there STILL hasn't been any significant information on the PS3 since E3 last year. Are everyday consumers still walking around with fresh images of Killzone 3 in their minds? I am thinking the longer SON¥ stays quiet the worse off they are.

The Dark One
Click to expand...

It's chances are the Ps2 would sell INSTEAD of the 360. It's more userbase for Sony so yeah it gives a chance of bigger userbase for the PS3. And when you have the userbase, pretty much anything else comes to you.
 
I've been seeing Core systems available for sale in many different stores around town. Have not seen the premium units sitting on the shelf, though.

The X360 is hard to forecast at the moment. Who knows where demand will end up. MS is still trailing behind the original Xbox in total userbase at the moment. They haven't even cracked one million sold in USA, although they should be the end of this month. I think March is going to be a telling month for the X360. Supply is supposed to be catching up, and there are a ton of great games hitting X360 in March 06. I expect to see Xbox 360 have a huge March, with momentum that should help carry them further into the year.
 
Fuzzy said:
I don't know where you're getting that 10 million from, in 2000 the PS2 sold ~5 million in Japan (~3.8 million) and the US (~1.1 million) combined and that accounts for 10 months because it launched March 4th in Japan.
Click to expand...


The official number by 2001/03/23, slightly over a year after launch, is 10.04 million units.

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html

They moved a lot of units in the US and Europe in the first 2 and a bit months of 2001, supply was still catching up with pent-up launch demand there at that point.
 
gofreak said:
The official number by 2001/03/23, slightly over a year after launch, is 10.04 million units.

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html

They moved a lot of units in the US and Europe in the first 2 and a bit months of 2001, supply was still catching up with pent-up launch demand there at that point.
Click to expand...
Yes, that's the amount Sony shipped, the question was how many they sold. ;)

BTW in January and February in 2001 in the US it sold less than 500K combined.
 
10 million is a huge stretch. 12 million is completely laughable.

There simply aren't that many diehard Xbox fans. There might be four million or so, maybe a bit more or less, but double or triple that? No way.

Of course they are still flying off the shelves (premiums at least, you can find cores...), but they've sold, what 2-2.5million? They got at least another million of surefire sellers before things get interesting.

(Sequels are always more frontloaded. Xbo was unknown when it debuted, now it is known, and the faithful are going to get theirs.... I don't see 12 million faithful).

Whatever lead MS develops will be swallowed at least twice over by Japanese PS2 sales, anyway. N.A. is also still Sony's best market. People tend to forget that Sony basically has a free region where MS has effectively zero sales.
 
Shortages for PS2 in the U.S. were as bad or worse as the 360, though I don't think they went on as long. So you can pretty much bank on every shipped unit as having been sold.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

12 years a GAF
2
85
1K
AJUMP23 replied
Space marine 2 has achieved 12 million players, adds another year of support
News 
48
523
larrybrady replied
It's been 10 years. Is Playdead dead?
38
548
kevboard replied
2026 Steam Lunar New Year Sale Feb 12 - Feb 26
Deals 
5
531
Zamana replied
Counter Strike Tournament Player Slaps Opponent On-Stage After Match, Gets 10 Year Ban
31
296
Puscifer replied
Top Bottom