The tablets and smart phones in people's hands while they watch TV constitute better access to the living room than any game console could hope to offer.
Analyst: If Xbox One Tanks, It Could Be Microsoft's Last Console
- Thread starter alterego
- Start date
The tablets and smart phones in people's hands while they watch TV constitute better access to the living room than any game console could hope to offer.
DigitalDevilSummoner
zero cognitive reasoning abilities
foh reel ?
SenjutsuSage
Banned
I can certainly see it being their last if it tanks, but I really don't believe it will. The inclusion of ESRAM will apparently make it easier to cost reduce the system to bring the price down much sooner by a decent amount, which will make it more price competitive by sometime around August 2014.
Price is the system's biggest issue. It has great features, some great services, although Microsoft needs to stop being so damn stupid and open up some things to non gold subscribers, like the damn browser for starters, and the games lineup is looking quite strong, to say the least. The console's biggest issue is price.
Price is the system's biggest issue. It has great features, some great services, although Microsoft needs to stop being so damn stupid and open up some things to non gold subscribers, like the damn browser for starters, and the games lineup is looking quite strong, to say the least. The console's biggest issue is price.
KefkaPalazzo
Member
Oh I agree with you regarding Nintendo. They are unmatched in that regard. My apologies if I came across as a bit hostile in writing off what you were saying...the rapid enthusiasm of anti Microsoft everything has me a tad on on the defensive regarding that.
Majmun
Member
I remember last year when there was a topic made where Ps4's existence was being questioned. The OP expected Sony to leave the console business after the Ps3. The thread was pretty big, with some people actually agreeing with the OP.
I can't find the link of that thead, though.
Look at the Ps4 now. It's the only console that has been "doom-free" so far. Nintendo has entered this gen pretty roughly. And MS made some bad decisions themselves. But I don't expect either to exit the console business.
I can't find the link of that thead, though.
Look at the Ps4 now. It's the only console that has been "doom-free" so far. Nintendo has entered this gen pretty roughly. And MS made some bad decisions themselves. But I don't expect either to exit the console business.
yeah, whenever an analyst thread pops up I can't help but think about this graph:
it's obvious that any of the new systems tanks, it could do heavy damage to the its manufacturer. Sony isn't in a good situation at this moment, and Nintendo is having a hard time with Wii-U so, in the end if XB1 tanks, yes, of course, it could make MS think about dropping the ball in the videogames market, but I do not see it happening.
by the way, I cannot believe people here wishing for MS to quit console gaming, narrow minds..
Yea that's what I'm talking about. Same stuff different launch
the traditional living room is dead
this is not 1998 anymore. Kids want ipads, not a fisherprice looking 2ds. the current big three in this industry are dinosaurs and the most ass backward companies in the field. the second Google or Apple bats an eye at them it will be a steamroll
infiniteheteroskdasticity
Member
Its a tricky question and really depends on who the next CEO of Microsoft is going to be. There is no doubt that Microsoft has nearly infinite resources that it can deploy wherever it chooses - the question is does it still want to continue making hardware? If the next CEO is an internal promotion, expect things to stay much the same as they are - maybe with an even bigger push into devices. If the next CEO is a big name external hire, expect the focus to change radically (as some activist shareholders have been pushing for).
Hardware is a notoriously low margin business, especially for what is still predominantly a software company. IBM showed that exiting hardware and positioning yourself as a consulting and software as service firm is very good for margins and shareholder value. Microsoft isn't Apple, Sony or Samsung. It doesn't have a deep history with hardware and most of its senior leadership are mainly software people. Its hard to argue that the X1 will find it harder going competitively than the 360 did early on and if the meta narrative starts labeling it the 'loser' in its segment you could start to see some pressure to sell or spin off the business. Most estimates peg the stand alone value of the devices and entertainment business at 10-20b mainly because of the value of the Xbox brand. A poor first year for the X1 could start to see that brand premium erode and a decision to 'get out while still in the money' becomes more probable.
Either way it isn't like Xbox is going anywhere. Either as an independent company or under new ownership I think they're strong enough to keep making consoles. The worst case scenario isn't a sudden closure of the group - its probably just a lack of first party games and new investment as the Microsoft money stream dries up.
Hardware is a notoriously low margin business, especially for what is still predominantly a software company. IBM showed that exiting hardware and positioning yourself as a consulting and software as service firm is very good for margins and shareholder value. Microsoft isn't Apple, Sony or Samsung. It doesn't have a deep history with hardware and most of its senior leadership are mainly software people. Its hard to argue that the X1 will find it harder going competitively than the 360 did early on and if the meta narrative starts labeling it the 'loser' in its segment you could start to see some pressure to sell or spin off the business. Most estimates peg the stand alone value of the devices and entertainment business at 10-20b mainly because of the value of the Xbox brand. A poor first year for the X1 could start to see that brand premium erode and a decision to 'get out while still in the money' becomes more probable.
Either way it isn't like Xbox is going anywhere. Either as an independent company or under new ownership I think they're strong enough to keep making consoles. The worst case scenario isn't a sudden closure of the group - its probably just a lack of first party games and new investment as the Microsoft money stream dries up.
Why is that the question? I was responding to someone who claimed "Microsoft/Sony have what Google/Apple do not; an access to your living room." Google and Apple are in a ton of living rooms already. Far more than any games console is, at any given time. I'm not stating I'm throwing away my console to play ios games. I love console gaming.
Impeccable
Member
Not really at all to be honest.
Yeah I don't understand why people think realistically Nintendo would drop out of the hardware business any time soon. Unlike Sony and Microsoft, they are a company that is only about gaming. Sony and MS have financial problems and responsibilities that extend beyond gaming. Plus as bad as Nintendo is doing currently they are still in a good place financially, because again they don't have to worry about taking a loss in other divisions/markets.
Something that should be said, is that not everyone is saying that realistically Xbox One is going to flop and fail. Just that, MS is moving in a direction as a company where they might not see the Gaming division being worth it after this gen. There was already talk about that with the 360, so if the Xbox One isn't as profitable or even more profitable, they might consider dropping it after this gen (at least on the hardware side of things). So while Xbox One might be profitable, it might not be where the company needs it to be.
And I think that is a realistic scenario. Whereas those that keep predicting doom for Nintendo, and them going third party software dev, is really unrealistic IMO.
Something that should be said, is that not everyone is saying that realistically Xbox One is going to flop and fail. Just that, MS is moving in a direction as a company where they might not see the Gaming division being worth it after this gen. There was already talk about that with the 360, so if the Xbox One isn't as profitable or even more profitable, they might consider dropping it after this gen (at least on the hardware side of things). So while Xbox One might be profitable, it might not be where the company needs it to be.
And I think that is a realistic scenario. Whereas those that keep predicting doom for Nintendo, and them going third party software dev, is really unrealistic IMO.
I don't think there's going to be another Xbox anyway, well not something that would be considered a true successor. I think they're heading into the entertainment box rather than games console, the gaming hardware will be seriously compromised, so at to pursue perhaps a launch price point of $199 with Kinect, I expect a side step from Microsoft for their next "console" rather than a step forward with gaming.
Who would honestly fully take MS's place if they quite though?
Apple? Lol, a console to play your iPhone games
Google or Amazon? Rumors point to both just creating small android consoles to play android apps. Stellar.
(Also, all of the companies above have made no such underground movements to create or invest in any gaming studios. Can't have a console without good exclusives.)
Valve? A company that can only pump out one game a year with a product that's catered to an audience that doesn't exist? Yep, they've got next gen in the bag.
I don't really care about either console manufacturer since I mostly play on PC but that doesn't mean I can't critique these theories of sunshine and peace in the console space if MS leaves.
Apple? Lol, a console to play your iPhone games
Google or Amazon? Rumors point to both just creating small android consoles to play android apps. Stellar.
(Also, all of the companies above have made no such underground movements to create or invest in any gaming studios. Can't have a console without good exclusives.)
Valve? A company that can only pump out one game a year with a product that's catered to an audience that doesn't exist? Yep, they've got next gen in the bag.
I don't really care about either console manufacturer since I mostly play on PC but that doesn't mean I can't critique these theories of sunshine and peace in the console space if MS leaves.
No worries. If you still want to have that discussion, looks like lunchbox is the guy you want to talk to.
Syphon Filter
Member
To be fair the ps3 cost a lot and had tons of issues. This time sony got their stuff right.
mr teaspoon
Member
Yeah, and? Has anything come of it? Microsoft is launching a new console this year still, right?
Again, I'm not trying to deny that there are voices in the company saying these things. Only that I don't think it will have an impact on the Xbox One. What's the implication, that Microsoft might pull the plug and stop supporting the system in 3 years? I don't buy it for a second.
Microsoft has turbulence ahead with the PS4. I think dark skies will be the norm for the next couple of years.
It is clear Oculus Rift is the hot new thing even if it won't achieve blockbuster status right away. Kinect has no wind in its sails. As Carmack observed Kinect is like a buttonless mouse with a bunch of latency.
Star Citizen is setting records. Microsoft owns an IP that can compete in the same arena as Chris Roberts. The FASA Renegade Legion Interceptor boardgame (1st edition) was incredibly bad-ass. Very cool damage flow charts and setting.
It is clear Oculus Rift is the hot new thing even if it won't achieve blockbuster status right away. Kinect has no wind in its sails. As Carmack observed Kinect is like a buttonless mouse with a bunch of latency.
Star Citizen is setting records. Microsoft owns an IP that can compete in the same arena as Chris Roberts. The FASA Renegade Legion Interceptor boardgame (1st edition) was incredibly bad-ass. Very cool damage flow charts and setting.
Microsoft used gaming as a conduit to dominate the living room, gaming in itself is not paramount to them. the whole point for them entering the console market was to realize their vision of a symbiotic media platform, and subsequently, monetize their services and generate a plethora of revenue streams.
and after sinking untold amounts of money on the original Xbox and 360, they were finally able to build enough leverage to push that ultimate proposition "Xbox One", unfortunately for them, the market rejected their proposition.
MS failed to concretize their vision with the Xbox project, Xbox one was the the culmination, and it didn't pass. now the best course of action for them is to bail out of the console market, cut their losses and sell the Halo ip for a billion dollars. that will make their investors happy.
and after sinking untold amounts of money on the original Xbox and 360, they were finally able to build enough leverage to push that ultimate proposition "Xbox One", unfortunately for them, the market rejected their proposition.
MS failed to concretize their vision with the Xbox project, Xbox one was the the culmination, and it didn't pass. now the best course of action for them is to bail out of the console market, cut their losses and sell the Halo ip for a billion dollars. that will make their investors happy.
HawksWinStanley
Member
I really don't see the XB1 flopping. It probably won't have the ridiculous reception the 360 did but I have a hard time seeing it actually flop.
adamantypants
Member
I don't think console gaming is dying. Like ever. It's easy to assume that's since the eighth gen consoles are x86 PCs will just rule forever. But the vast majority of gamers I know IRL would never consider building a pc for gaming and also what of the millions of more casual gamers that just want to get their Just Dance on? Console gaming is here to stay. It mightve seen its last days as cutting edge tech but the audience for it is going nowhere.
EmptySpace
Banned
EmptySpace quotes this for truth.
he wants people to take a look at the 3 companies. nintendo's biggest (or only) business is their games. sony's sce is probably behind music, movie, and insurance business. xbox does not even make a dent in microsoft.
which means, nintendo has the most to lose by dropping out of gaming. sony has a lot to lose as well. meanwhile, we get an investor in microsoft who publicly wants to cut the xbox division.
EmptySpace is not saying the xbox is an afterthought for microsoft, but people need to step back and look at how gaming affects the companies as a whole.
Syphon Filter
Member
How come?
Well of course...but the projection shown was real and it just goes to show that perception two months prior to launch are not often grounded in reality in a market that is impossible to judge (as MP).
If people can not see the benefits to Xbone that many people may find compelling (forget hardcore as it will be split) then people are in for a surprise,
Not saying it will blow away the ps4 as at that price difference it will matter but to think it will get destroyed 2-1? Or maybe fail? Not grounded in reality.
Not to mention price is temporary and all signs of Xbone design point to it being highly cost efficient even with the next downsize in fabbing so one year can make a huge difference
Edit
Again The first 3-5 months sales wont matter so long as they stay close...after that and the early adopters settle in everything changes and the real buyers start to emerge and MS is very strong at adjusting to meet market needs when necessary
I feel like what many people don't realize is that Microsoft as a company is much bigger than the XBox. As such, the company doesn't depend on the console's continuing success and / or existance. As long as Microsoft can make money in the video game industry (right now, their console and mobile divisions account for roughly 20-25 % of their total revenue), the support for the XBox One and eventual follow-ups is going to continue.
At the same time, however, it is relatively easy for them to leave the console business should the XBox sell poorly enough as they can easily survive without it. With all the recent rumors about a shift in direction among Microsoft's managing tier and Steve Balmer leaving his job within the next year, there's no telling what might happen to the XBox brand. It is perfectly possible that the entertainment division is cut entirely or splits from the rest in a shift in focus.
The big question that remains then is what is going to happen with the entertainment division, and how it is going to fare on its own. Right now, the XBox one tanking wouldn't be a big deal because Microsoft has huge cash reserves and can feather a blow like that, but an independent, smaller company could very well go under when facing such a hit.
All things considered, the "end" of the XBox is a possibility, but that is still a long shot from it actually happening.
At the same time, however, it is relatively easy for them to leave the console business should the XBox sell poorly enough as they can easily survive without it. With all the recent rumors about a shift in direction among Microsoft's managing tier and Steve Balmer leaving his job within the next year, there's no telling what might happen to the XBox brand. It is perfectly possible that the entertainment division is cut entirely or splits from the rest in a shift in focus.
The big question that remains then is what is going to happen with the entertainment division, and how it is going to fare on its own. Right now, the XBox one tanking wouldn't be a big deal because Microsoft has huge cash reserves and can feather a blow like that, but an independent, smaller company could very well go under when facing such a hit.
All things considered, the "end" of the XBox is a possibility, but that is still a long shot from it actually happening.
Here's an interesting question:
Would the Xbox One be the last Xbox if it was Microsofts' last console? They obviously posses a lot of IP and console-making know-how. The Xbox brand would still hold some value. Samsung, Google, Amazon would probably considering buying the Xbox division if Microsoft can't handle it.
Would the Xbox One be the last Xbox if it was Microsofts' last console? They obviously posses a lot of IP and console-making know-how. The Xbox brand would still hold some value. Samsung, Google, Amazon would probably considering buying the Xbox division if Microsoft can't handle it.
Wrong.
Beerman462
Member
Samsung
intheinbetween
Member
iirc, PS3 pre-orders were way over 360's ones, even more almost nobody believed in 360 doing so well, hence the previous analyst's graph
TheLaughingStock
Member
It is about profits otherwise what's the point? Additionally, putting a game console under the TV isn't an effective way of expanding the scope and breadth of an ecosystem. The iPhone in your pocket or an iPad in your hands are better alternatives. Microsoft/Sony having access to your living room receives a big yawn and a so what. What do their other products and services have to show for it? Practically nothing. Would Apple like a sideline project Apple TV to gain traction at $99? Sure. Are they going to throw billions at a game console or acquire one just to say hey we are connected to your TV? No. For what?
Phire Phox
Banned
Whether or not this is their last console, Xbox One will be a smashing success.
Why are people saying that Xbox 1 "cannot fail"? there is no such thing as an infallible product.
no matter how big the brand brand may be everything can fail.
Samsung and apple are king of the phone business and keeps stringing success after success but if they suddenly devise the worst phone possibly it will fail and not be successful despite their earlier successes .
same with every other product and company
to bring this to the gaming scene : remember when Sony was called the undisputed king of gaming ?
I think many people where convinced that Ps3 could not fail because this was the company that sold 150 million PS2 and would pulverize everything else this gen .
we know how that story went .
do i think it will be a failure ? too early too say though they are not winning any points right now. exactly either .
but it is not infallible by a longshot.
no matter how big the brand brand may be everything can fail.
Samsung and apple are king of the phone business and keeps stringing success after success but if they suddenly devise the worst phone possibly it will fail and not be successful despite their earlier successes .
same with every other product and company
to bring this to the gaming scene : remember when Sony was called the undisputed king of gaming ?
I think many people where convinced that Ps3 could not fail because this was the company that sold 150 million PS2 and would pulverize everything else this gen .
we know how that story went .
do i think it will be a failure ? too early too say though they are not winning any points right now. exactly either .
but it is not infallible by a longshot.
Or Xbox, Inc, the independent company formed when MS spins off the division.
Beerman462
Member
ChosenPredator
Banned
crazy how much people want MS out, i want all three of these guys to thrive to force the competition to excel each other and innovate
Funny, I remember it being around and doing just fine long before they ever arrived on the scene.
Freshmaker
I am Korean.
Huh? It got along just fine without MS before.
MS has driven the push for paid-for multiplayer and ads in our consoles so fuck'em.
Competition and free market worked for the worse in this case.
this will be the last generation of consoles for all these trashy companies and their unsustainable business models
handhelds are already burried, and now the console days are numbered, count them one by one
You're under the impression that different business models can't coexist, which is false. Each caters to a separate audience and some will overlap. You're also speaking in an extreme scenario that is very highly unlikely, that I'm half convinced that you're trolling. I'm familiar with your post history, so I'm going to assume you are.
Neuro
Member
Remember this generation we are entering with fewer number of big publishers and the big AAA devs teams have also shrunk is size, that is an indication of where things are going
Talking about consoles,how are the Shield and Ouya doing...Does anyone have any numbers on those, both are exclusive Andriod platforms (one high end and the other low end)
Talking about consoles,how are the Shield and Ouya doing...Does anyone have any numbers on those, both are exclusive Andriod platforms (one high end and the other low end)
RedAssedApe
Banned
With the news about the impending change to the MS Board of Directors, I wouldn't be surprised. But competition is good. I do not want to see this happen.
And as an aside, happy to see the Titanfall and cloud memes getting put to bed.
And as an aside, happy to see the Titanfall and cloud memes getting put to bed.