The thing is, there's not much that changes over the first night to change this. Some people might have a role that generates knowledge for them, but they could easily lie about that. I'm willing to wait a bit and see if anyone has a reasonable argument to vote for a specific person.
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Animal Crossing Mafia |OT| - Making Animal Friends Is Awesome!
- Thread starter Karkador
- Start date
The thing is, there's not much that changes over the first night to change this. Some people might have a role that generates knowledge for them, but they could easily lie about that. I'm willing to wait a bit and see if anyone has a reasonable argument to vote for a specific person.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
Oh yeah we can vote now
I'll hold off on voting until Mazre gets back, just 'cause I'm interested as to where that's going
I'll hold off on voting until Mazre gets back, just 'cause I'm interested as to where that's going
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I'm getting antsy...
I think this is a great move to get the ball rolling, depending on how the village reacts to this starts giving us character and patterns for the village to make future decisions, just waiting and Not evicting its pretty much wasting our time =P.
Also, BREWSTER COFFEE IS REALLY DAMN GOOD.
I just put my old coach for sale un Re-Tail, its pretty cheap =P. Come on guys, thisis a face you can trust.
(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I'm starting to think this was the intention...
Everyone wants to wait now to see if Mazre has something game-changing, but he's got as much information as the rest of us; still, the thought he maybe knows something the rest of us don't is giving us pause. Whatever he knows is either from his role or he has extrapolated from the rules (which would probably just speculation). All of this assuming he isn't going to just lie.
I say we fight him by just voting and pushing this into night phase.
We honestly don´t know what the roles are, and the theme can have Day Roles, for example in other games you can pm the Game Master so he publishes the action, like Day-Killing, Public Announcements, or stuff like that.
Also the way the houses are setup and how, once someone is evicted the house becomes vacant, makes me think we are going to be able to freely move between evicted houses, maybe once a night or something, to avoid been evicted or stuff like that.
All this is speculation, but the potential is there.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
It wouldn't affect the day stuff, really, unless that person has a day role. But, there are 23 of us here and we might be able to get more information out of a rule only one of us knows about than they would on their own, like why the map is designed the way it is with players where they are. That's actually one of my bigger questions. We probably won't find that out until someone makes a move at night, though.
That's actually a pretty good theory.
Alright, I'll try to keep this to the point and not to rambly:
Firstly:
Nothing at all good sir. I wished to demonstrate concretely that I felt an eviction should occur. I generated a number via random.org and it corresponded with you on the player list, simple as that I harbor no suspicions about you one way or another.
Secondly:
As many have surmised I have a day action, however to clarify, it is not immediate and it's effect is rather minor. I consider it planting a seed at this point, we know that trees don't grow overnight (unless they do, I've honestly never played an AC game before). That said if the town had voted to no evict too soon I might have missed an opportunity to act. Thanks to all those who held off, action has been taken. There won't be any results till night and even then they are unlikely to be discernible to the majority of the town. In this regard the seed may be more a sapling, as attempts to chop it down early may yet leave some evidence of the saplings existence, a stump if you will. It's my hope that the tree (and this overdrawn analogy) may bare fruit down the line for my fellow townies.
Thirdly:
I take this action and share this information as I feel it is the strongest action I can take currently as well as potentially the strongest way to leverage my role. I feel that as a town inaction is one of our gravest possible errors and am acting in accordance. That said a no vote on day one isn't the worst thing, so long as there is some discussion surrounding it. We seem to have a fairly active group so far with I believe only 2 players not posting since the official kick-off so far. I recognize that I am drawing a lot of attention to myself very early on and consider that a positive even if it results in my demise on the first night, via the HHA, or soon after at the hands of my fellow townies. I urge all town members with roles to carefully consider there first nights actions should they have them.
TLDR;
1. I am town.
2. I have a role with a day action that has a night component.
3. This action is relatively minor.
4. Take action.
5. Ourobolus is not suspicious. (yet)
Finally, to the HHA, we may not know who you are, but rest assured we know what you are, and we know what you did to Karkador. We will find you and we will remove you from our new home, Devillage Ass. You have been warned.
<insert badass stare down gif here> (follow up with obvious avatar quote)
Firstly:
Nothing at all good sir. I wished to demonstrate concretely that I felt an eviction should occur. I generated a number via random.org and it corresponded with you on the player list, simple as that I harbor no suspicions about you one way or another.
Secondly:
As many have surmised I have a day action, however to clarify, it is not immediate and it's effect is rather minor. I consider it planting a seed at this point, we know that trees don't grow overnight (unless they do, I've honestly never played an AC game before). That said if the town had voted to no evict too soon I might have missed an opportunity to act. Thanks to all those who held off, action has been taken. There won't be any results till night and even then they are unlikely to be discernible to the majority of the town. In this regard the seed may be more a sapling, as attempts to chop it down early may yet leave some evidence of the saplings existence, a stump if you will. It's my hope that the tree (and this overdrawn analogy) may bare fruit down the line for my fellow townies.
Thirdly:
I take this action and share this information as I feel it is the strongest action I can take currently as well as potentially the strongest way to leverage my role. I feel that as a town inaction is one of our gravest possible errors and am acting in accordance. That said a no vote on day one isn't the worst thing, so long as there is some discussion surrounding it. We seem to have a fairly active group so far with I believe only 2 players not posting since the official kick-off so far. I recognize that I am drawing a lot of attention to myself very early on and consider that a positive even if it results in my demise on the first night, via the HHA, or soon after at the hands of my fellow townies. I urge all town members with roles to carefully consider there first nights actions should they have them.
TLDR;
1. I am town.
2. I have a role with a day action that has a night component.
3. This action is relatively minor.
4. Take action.
5. Ourobolus is not suspicious. (yet)
Finally, to the HHA, we may not know who you are, but rest assured we know what you are, and we know what you did to Karkador. We will find you and we will remove you from our new home, Devillage Ass. You have been warned.
<insert badass stare down gif here> (follow up with obvious avatar quote)
Fixt.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
While it's good you were able to carry out your action, I really hope that overlong explanation doesn't draw attention to yourself.
If you want to discuss how to vote on day one, where could we begin? Does anyone have any information to share? I suspect even the special roles wouldn't want to reveal themselves as such so they don't become targets. No one has really done anything suspicious, either
Unless someone else has something to say, I think we should move this to the night phase without an eviction.
On that note, Mazre, why do you believe an eviction should occur on this first day?
If you want to discuss how to vote on day one, where could we begin? Does anyone have any information to share? I suspect even the special roles wouldn't want to reveal themselves as such so they don't become targets. No one has really done anything suspicious, either
, except Ourobolus.
Unless someone else has something to say, I think we should move this to the night phase without an eviction.
On that note, Mazre, why do you believe an eviction should occur on this first day?
I'm just going to kind of repeat myself, now that Mazre has come back and stated his case - I'm still anti-evict on the first day, unless someone does something particularly suspicious and there's nothing I want to act on yet. I see where Mazre is coming from - just wanting to get the ball rolling. I agree that an inactive town spells death for our side but I'm not going to jump on a random evict. If the majority disagrees with me and we get an eviction, fine, but I just wanted to mention my thoughts on the matter.
tl;dr:
VOTE: No Evict
tl;dr:
VOTE: No Evict
FYI, if we No Evict this early after that information mafia are pretty likely to go after Mazre, which won't tell us much (other than he wasn't lying about his ability).
I mean, I'm OK with that. But we wouldn't necessarily learn anything that useful.
I personally think we let it bake for a day or two.
I mean, I'm OK with that. But we wouldn't necessarily learn anything that useful.
I personally think we let it bake for a day or two.
A No Evict effectively means that the game starts out at Night and HHA gets the first move.
I don't think anyone wants to evict an innocent townie else, but I understand where Mavre is coming from. Crab made the same suggestion in the recruitment thread.
By doing a No Evict, Town gives up its first turn advantage. Remember that the objective of the game isn't to make sure all Townies make it to the end, but that the HHA are taken care of.
I don't think anyone wants to evict an innocent townie else, but I understand where Mavre is coming from. Crab made the same suggestion in the recruitment thread.
By doing a No Evict, Town gives up its first turn advantage. Remember that the objective of the game isn't to make sure all Townies make it to the end, but that the HHA are taken care of.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Yeah, hmm, the landscape has changed now that Mazre has stated he has a role.
Then maybe we should evict the roomies. There's a higher chance we'd evict a mafia if we did that, even if we lose an ordinary villager or special role. Moreover, just the act of removing a villager at this point creates more information if their role is revealed upon their eviction or even just by reducing the amount of players.
If we're just going to choose at random, I think this increases our chances of success. I feel sorry saying that if one or both of the roomies is innocent.
Then maybe we should evict the roomies. There's a higher chance we'd evict a mafia if we did that, even if we lose an ordinary villager or special role. Moreover, just the act of removing a villager at this point creates more information if their role is revealed upon their eviction or even just by reducing the amount of players.
If we're just going to choose at random, I think this increases our chances of success. I feel sorry saying that if one or both of the roomies is innocent.
Well the problem is that statistically it's likely to have two townies though, right?
The last game had...3 Mafia vs something like 20+ Townies, I think.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Statistically, yes, whatever we do we're likely going to be doing to a townie and that applies to both sides. But, like Haly mentioned, the goal of the townies isn't that all of us survive - it's that we eliminate the HHA. Evicting the roomies just increases our chances that we'd take out an HHA member in our first turn.
Editing posts isn't allowed. >_<
According to the rules, the roles for each roomie is random. And they don't "necessarily know each other's roles or alignments".
It could be mafia in there, or a serial killer (or whatever the equivalent). But it's more likely to be two villagers.
At this early point, I rather evict one innocent, instead of potentially two. Now who knows, mafia might evict em off by the night phase anyways.
It could be mafia in there, or a serial killer (or whatever the equivalent). But it's more likely to be two villagers.
At this early point, I rather evict one innocent, instead of potentially two. Now who knows, mafia might evict em off by the night phase anyways.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
As someone who was previously on the other side of this situation, the continued cluelessness was pretty great at the beginning. Sucks to say, since I feel bad for whoever ends up on the bad side of this, but I think we should evict.
Just doing this on the basis of the situation surrounding the game, but I'm just gonna say
VOTE: tomakasatnav
Survived to the end of the last game (or pretty close at least) and is the only one in this game who did and got prodded. So yeah. Entirely based around the non-game situation, nothing personal dood. Just trying to get the ball rolling yo.
Just doing this on the basis of the situation surrounding the game, but I'm just gonna say
VOTE: tomakasatnav
Survived to the end of the last game (or pretty close at least) and is the only one in this game who did and got prodded. So yeah. Entirely based around the non-game situation, nothing personal dood. Just trying to get the ball rolling yo.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Yeah, it's pretty much a gamble no matter how you justify it.
I don't think I understand this part of the sentence?
UNVOTE: No Evict
In any case, we definitely need to discuss this further.
DON'T YOU FORGET IT
I'M SORRY ;_;
DON'T YOU FORGET IT
Fantastic.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
Yeesh, looking back that is super poorly phrased
What I meant was that out of the people from the last game who are also in this game, he is the only person who both survived to the end and had to be prodded into action at some point - ie. low activity and survived (I realise the irony of me bringing up that someone had low activity in the last game so we should get rid of them, but you know)
See, this sucks because you're not really wrong about voting for me and franconp. I'm not a bad guy, but it is certainly possible that my roommate is. And the odds of one of us being bad is indeed greater than the odds of any other single person.
I guess, as a counter point, there are some potential advantages to our situation and keeping us around. Since night actions get applied to both of us it doubles the value of all these actions for good and bad. An investigator can check both of us at once and we can protected as a unit at once. We also are a high value target for both sides from the start of the game and can draw attention away from the various powerful town roles.
I guess, as a counter point, there are some potential advantages to our situation and keeping us around. Since night actions get applied to both of us it doubles the value of all these actions for good and bad. An investigator can check both of us at once and we can protected as a unit at once. We also are a high value target for both sides from the start of the game and can draw attention away from the various powerful town roles.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Thanks for clarifying that.
Yeah, unfortunately, I don't really think there's going to just be a clear-cut solution even by the time night rolls around in a few days. For what it's worth, I'm 60% sure that you're a townie, but if your roomie is HHA, there's really only one way to get to him.
Deciding wether to lynch or not is so frustrating. A compelling case can be made for both points really. If we are to lynch however maybe we should draw inspiration from the Mafia recruitment thread in off topic and go for an inactive?
Does feel kinda harsh calling someone an inactive when the thread has been up for just about 2 days mind.
Does feel kinda harsh calling someone an inactive when the thread has been up for just about 2 days mind.
If we do vote to evict someone today, choosing someone will be difficult. The room-mates seems like a obvious choice for town and mafia but it might be obvious for a reason. It would be strange if one of them were mafia as they are the first person we jump to when we think of people to evict.
We still have a while until this day ends so I'm going to wait until people post a bit more to see if anyone stands out.
We still have a while until this day ends so I'm going to wait until people post a bit more to see if anyone stands out.
These notices will also be posted and updated in Post #3 of this thread, for easy finding.
Time Remaining in the Day Phase:
Current votes
(13 votes needed for majoritydecision):
Names with a
No Evict (4)
freakzilla149
Ourobolus
franconp
Tucah
Ourobolus(1)
Mazrus
tomakasatnav(1)
RobotNinjaHornets
Friendly reminder - We are using a plurality of votes in this game
In the event that the Day Phase ends without a majority decision, the option with the most votes wins (at least 2). Ties result in No Evict.
Otherwise, Day Phases end immediately when a majority is reached.
tomakasatnav
Member
I was prodded for inactivity (I missed the first 'day' of the game) and then somehow ended up surviving to the very end. I think it's just a way of picking someone to go on the first day than anything else!
With the housemates, my feeling is they'll be non plain roles for each side, with both being noticeable by someone else during the night, but not distinguishable? And the mafia won't want to take out the other housemate since they'll lose one of their own? Or that could be too obvious. I feel one must be a baddy, or they'd just take two out at the first opportunity?
Ignoring special roles, the possible combinations are:
- 2 Townies
- 1 Townie, 1 HHA
- 1 HHA, 1 Townie (reverse of the above)
- 2 HHA (unlikely, but possible)
Compare this with any eviction of a single home:
- 1 Townie
- 1 HHA
For a single action, we get two shots at taking out at least one HHA, compared to the one action for one shot if we evict a single story house.
On a meta-level, however, I don't think Karkador would've created this double house mechanic if he didn't also build in some protections into it so it doesn't get taken by either side on the very first cycle. I'm guessing either one of the housemates has a protection/immunity role, or one of the housemates is a mafia and it behooves them to draw attention away from themselves (because of the precariousness of their position), as Ultron has already done.
(Side note: The whole double housing mechanic could be a red herring by Karkador but I'm ruling this out as 2meta4me.)
More broadly, let's say there are 6 HHAs, and 17 Townies, a ratio of 1:4. The probability of one HHA being in the two-story is:
(6/23 * 17/22) + (17/23 * 6/22) = 102/253
Chances of two HHA being in the two-story:
(6/23 * 5/22) = 15/253
Altogether: 117/253 or 46%.
Contrast this with the probabilities in evicting a single house: 6/23 or 26%.
I'm not 100% confident in my math because probability is not my strong suit, but even if I fudged the numbers a bit it should be clear what a drastically superior move evicting that house is.
That being said... if someone has an investigative role, I highly suggest you target that house just to get it over with because otherwise we'll be second guessing it the entire time. Similarly, anyone who can provide immunity should also target that house so we can make sure we're not losing a specialist there either. Now that these numbers are in the open, you can be sure the HHA will be making use of them as well.
In other news, who wants some peach cobbler? I made plenty for everyone.
We are also not taking into account the posibility of a third party, you know, a role that only wins by eliminating everyone else.
But even then, I think it really is the best course of action to:
-No Evict this turn
-Wait for the Cop (Or the version of cop of this game) to get some info for us.
-Protect Mazre the first turn since he is most likely a good guy.
So, this is the strategy I would suggest for town:
-Protect Mazre
-Have the cop investigate Mazre to confirm his towniness.
-Once he is confirmed, the rest of town can claim to him his role.
-Once everyone has claimed his role to Mazre, he can let us know about the contradicting ones.
With this Mazre can inform us of contradicting role claims and we can start by analyzing who might be lying and who might not, effectively giving us an advantage over the mafia.
How does that sound? Remember, this is a face you can frost.
But even then, I think it really is the best course of action to:
-No Evict this turn
-Wait for the Cop (Or the version of cop of this game) to get some info for us.
-Protect Mazre the first turn since he is most likely a good guy.
So, this is the strategy I would suggest for town:
-Protect Mazre
-Have the cop investigate Mazre to confirm his towniness.
-Once he is confirmed, the rest of town can claim to him his role.
-Once everyone has claimed his role to Mazre, he can let us know about the contradicting ones.
With this Mazre can inform us of contradicting role claims and we can start by analyzing who might be lying and who might not, effectively giving us an advantage over the mafia.
How does that sound? Remember, this is a face you can frost.
But you are assuming 6 HHA, which I think is pretty high.
If we take the chance that by picking the double-house we'll evict two townies (using your assumption we've got 6 non-town roles):
Chance to evict two townies:
(17/23 * 16/22) = 53%
So, the inverse of that gives us the chance to evict at least one non-townie:
47%
Note hear that a) we probably don't have 6 non-townies, and b) we might have non-town roles that aren't HHA.
If we just go for a regular house...
Evict a townie by accident
(17/23) = 73%
To hit a HHA:
27%
Again, this is assuming we have 6 HHA, which I think is a hell of a lot. Last game we had 4.
If we change the math to 4 non-townies, we get:
19 townies, 4 HHA
Chance Double Evict hits two townies:
(19/23 * 18/22) = 81%
Double evict hits at least one non-townie:
19%
I don't think that's worth it at all. We have an 81% chance to evict 2 townies and then a pretty good chance that HHA will evict another townie over the night phase. That's 3 town down on N1. Not great.
Hello neighbors and townings! so during nights, I'll always throw parties!
Everyone is welcome!
You will want to come, rest assure that I throw the best night parties in town! As you all will see.
Party all night long. \o/
Looks delicious but I bet it has a lot of sugar, so I'll kindly pass.
Everyone is welcome!
You will want to come, rest assure that I throw the best night parties in town! As you all will see.
Party all night long. \o/
Looks delicious but I bet it has a lot of sugar, so I'll kindly pass.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
But if we're talking strictly probabilities, then there's an even higher probability we would evict a townie over an HHA from a single square. (19/23) = 82.6%
And, again, as heartless as it may sound - and I'm legitimately sorry to both ultron and franconp
unless either of you is an HHA bastard
Also, removing more townies increases our chances of correctly deducing who of the remaining villagers is an HHA member. So, even in the worst case scenario - there are two townies in the housemate block, and a third townie is picked off in the night - that still increases our chances of correctly evicting an HHA member in the following day phase, keeping in mind that other mechanics will be assisting us like the investigator's role.
I don't know if we should rely on a possible investigator role to help us find people. Last game didn't have one and if we assume we have one this game, they could be one of the three ( four if we have a neutral or town killing role) people who end up dying.
It's 67%, with 33% chance to hit at least one HHA.
That is to say, the chances of getting at least one HHA in the twostory is roughly double the chance of getting an HHA in any single home (4/23 = 17%).
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