Yeah, actually, Haly's numbers are correct. Even if there's as few as 2 members, there's a 24.3% chance of hitting an HHA member in the roommates house, and 8.6% chance of hitting one in a single player home.
Also, the chances of getting a special role evicted are within the same range as HHA.
The arguments been covered fairly well I think it's what's in the town's best interest currently. I certainly understand the desire to slow play with a no evict though, at the very least I saw the vote moving very quickly and wanted to at least prompt some additional discussion on the matter and the state of the game in general. What I've seen since posting has been great. Also kudos to Ultron for getting us moving in the first place.
Even if we do we still have to get rid of them for town victory, had to double check myself but our win condition is no non-town remaining, not no HHA (though they're most likely our greatest threat atm.)
I cannot comment on any of the discussion so far, but as the person who makes the rules, I feel that I have to clarify the earlier explanation I made about how roles were assigned - because it's not exactly "random", and I don't want to see this game get sidetracked into pure statistics.
Let me clarify how I assigned roles in this game.
1. The map with 25 spaces was made - 3 spaces were removed to fit the player count, with the intention of having two players and two roles inhabit one space.
2. I assigned roles to the spaces, by design of the game
3. I then took the list of players, randomized it, and filled them into each house, row by row.
So it is accurate to say that players were assigned their roles randomly (as you would expect in these games), but inaccurate to say that roles were assigned to a space randomly. I apologize for the confusion.
Off to work soon, but seems like our current top eviction candidates are:
Ultron/FranconP (purely due to the math behind their eviction)
Darryl (least active poster so far, I saw a single post prior to game start and please correct me if I'm wrong nothing since, should probably withhold any final decisions if possible until he's had an opportunity to respond)
Myself (has clearly spewed the most crazy since we've begun, although I do have a pretty good feeling about this one, hard to say, lack of sleep may be catching up to me)
Keep that conversation going guys, as many have pointed out before it's our greatest strength.
It's 67%, with 33% chance to hit at least one HHA.
That is to say, the chances of getting at least one HHA in the twostory is roughly double the chance of getting an HHA in any single home (4/23 = 17%).
I figured as much, but I didn't find a confirmation in the rules. I don't know if I posted something about it earlier or if it was one of those posts I wrote and never actually submit because I thought it sounded dumb. xP
I think this basically affirms that there's something fishy about the housemates. I'm going to stick to my guns and say it's that at least one of them is HHA.
Off to work soon, but seems like our current top eviction candidates are:
Ultron/FranconP (purely due to the math behind their eviction)
Darryl (least active poster so far, I saw a single post prior to game start and please correct me if I'm wrong nothing since, should probably withhold any final decisions if possible until he's had an opportunity to respond)
Myself (has clearly spewed the most crazy since we've begun, although I do have a pretty good feeling about this one, hard to say, lack of sleep may be catching up to me)
Keep that conversation going guys, as many have pointed out before it's our greatest strength.
The math still holds up, even if the map was designed this way. Actually, I think it raises the chances that Kark designed this so that the roomies were actually on different sides, but protecting each other because of their shared fates. That's just speculation, though, but it would certainly make sense. Also, something that ultron said before makes me think this is true as well.
I also think Darryl is particularly suspicious. His lack of activity is concerning.
So Kark has deliberately put two specific roles in that house huh. He had to know that that house would have attention on it right out the gate and the fact that he reiterated this as we were delving to much in to statistics has got me thinking if there are some safeguards in place we don't know about to guarantee the housemates survival for a bit?
I still think evicting the roomies is a bad idea. 67% chance to hit two townies and then another likely hit tonight. That's 3 town potentially down in one day.
So Kark has deliberately put two specific roles in that house huh. He had to know that that house would have attention on it right out the gate and the fact that he reiterated this as we were delving to much in to statistics has got me thinking if there are some safeguards in place we don't know about to guarantee the housemates survival for a bit?
I considered this too, but I'm not sure if Kark expected us to act as soon as the first day. I don't think Mafia inherently has any roles that protect oneself, unless the doctor assigns himself as a target; if anything, it would have to be a new role. Regardless, if one of them is mafia, that at least protects the two from what would normally be considered the primary threat in this game.
This was where I was leaning. I'm concerned that there is some role with the roommates that may end up backfiring on an eviction as well, at least according to how Kark said he planned out what roles went where.
This was where I was leaning. I'm concerned that there is some role with the roommates that may end up backfiring on an eviction as well, at least according to how Kark said he planned out what roles went where.
I disagree with the musings of evicting the roommates. While we know that they both have special roles, we DON'T know what said roles entail. For all we know they could be here to help.
I still think evicting the roomies is a bad idea. 67% chance to hit two townies and then another likely hit tonight. That's 3 town potentially down in one day.
Exactly, while I'm not in favor of evicting those two quite yet, I'd like to hear their arguments as to why we shouldn't evict them immediately. We know statistics about evicting the people as a broad bucket, but I'd like to know what they think about it is a bad idea given that they have more information about their roles in the game.
I see most people are too scared of potentially eliminating two townies to pick the statistically superior vote. I can empathize, I feel apprehensive about it as well.
However, I firmly believe that it's in our best interest to evict at least one player on the first day, so I'm casting my vote for Mazre.
VOTE: Mazre
Mazre's been one of the most active posters so far, and the entire time he's been ingratiating himself as one of the Townies, to the point of martyring himself for their cause. This is a textbook strategy to get people invested in your position, because, as the reasoning goes, who in their right mind would try to harm themselves? Anyone who seems willing to do so must have good intentions at heart, because self sacrifice is a trait we associate with heroes. And he was also the first to cast a vote for the eviction of a particular player.
Arguments for Mazre being Town:
- Invested in getting discussion going (assumes legitimate stance)
- Willing to take a hit for the town (assumes legitimate stance)
Arguments for Mazre being HHA:
- Trumping himself up as Town (assumes manipulative stance)
- Tried to lead a vote for Ourobolus to get the ball rolling
- Suggested two more evictions (Roomies, Darryl)
- Did not rescind his vote for Ourobolus despite all the discussion thus far and his new suggestions. Most players quickly changed their tune when I did. Some others might not have had the opportunity to check this thread again. Only two players maintained their votes for other players, RobotNinjaH and Mavre.
Remember that the HHA know who their fellow HHA are, at least, in the variants of the game I can find.
Think of how you feel as someone without any information. You want to be cautious. You don't want to evict the roomies, because you're scared of taking out innocents, because you see yourself in their position. You also don't want to draw too much attention to yourself because otherwise you'll be a prime target for the first Night cycle (which is why I'm opposed to singling out Darryl for his inactivity).
This is the behavior I expect from Townies, whether first time players or returning ones. Mavre's behavior has been inconsistent with this. However, his behavior is consistent with someone who has information.
Simply put, there are three personalities Mavre might have (with many more that I consider too fringe to be worth mentioning).
Mavre as Earnest Townie: Really enthusiastic about this game and means everything he says.
Mavre as the Bluffing HHA: Using what information he has to get us to Evict someone on Day 1. while simultaneously building up a soft defense by playing himself up as "one of the guys".
Mavre as the Double Bluffing Specialist Townie: He's playing a double bluffing game using his role's special power. Immunity? Counter-eviction? I dunno, the sky's the limit here.
Every further personality (whether Townie or HHA) beyond the double bluff assumes even more intricate bluffing, involving powers I can't even conceive of. At that point it becomes pointless to speculate, which I why I end the possibilities at 2 levels of bluffing. Of those 3, my money is on the second.
The irony is not lost on me that I am putting myself in the same situation as Mavre.
Well, to be fair, a lot of these things apply to me as well. However, I think Mazre is who he says he is.
We know he at least has some sort of special role, be it townie or HHA. It's why he asked us to wait until he got back, so he could send his action. It seems a bit too well thought out to be a ruse, even a really elaborate one, to use time as a piece of evidence on his behalf. The first thing people would think of to try to lie is about their role title and role's abilities; he didn't tell us either of them, and the intent in telling us to wait until he returned with some information is so he could take his action and tell us about that. He kept it in vague terms because the HHA members would stand to gain more from knowing what his actions ultimately accomplish.
The Ourobolus thing was a joke, I'm pretty sure. He didn't follow up on it, but he hasn't decided what his ultimate vote will be, so he hasn't unvoted yet. We still have time, and one vote won't evict Ouro from the game anyway.
You know my stance on the roomies. I also suspect Darryl, not only because he's inactive, but because the inactivity makes me think he believes he's safe, for now at least. His action has also not been required yet, so he's probably not checked the thread very often. It's pretty tenuous, but it's more than I have on any other person in this thread.
He's also not the only person to suggest an eviction on the first day, and actually your post was the one that convinced me that we should make the first move.
The question is, what information has he displayed knowledge of that most of us don't? Other than talking a whole bunch about some vague action he's taken, he doesn't seem to know much more than any of us.
I see most people are too scared of potentially eliminating two townies to pick the statistically superior vote. I can empathize, I feel apprehensive about it as well.
However, I firmly believe that it's in our best interest to evict at least one player on the first day, so I'm casting my vote for Mazre.
VOTE: Mazre
Mazre's been one of the most active posters so far, and the entire time he's been ingratiating himself as one of the Townies, to the point of martyring himself for their cause. This is a textbook strategy to get people invested in your position, because, as the reasoning goes, who in their right mind would try to harm themselves? Anyone who seems willing to do so must have good intentions at heart, because self sacrifice is a trait we associate with heroes. And he was also the first to cast a vote for the eviction of a particular player.
Arguments for Mazre being Town:
- Invested in getting discussion going (assumes legitimate stance)
- Willing to take a hit for the town (assumes legitimate stance)
Arguments for Mazre being HHA:
- Trumping himself up as Town (assumes manipulative stance)
- Tried to lead a vote for Ourobolus to get the ball rolling
- Suggested two more evictions (Roomies, Darryl)
- Did not rescind his vote for Ourobolus despite all the discussion thus far and his new suggestions. Most players quickly changed their tune when I did. Some others might not have had the opportunity to check this thread again. Only two players maintained their votes for other players, RobotNinjaH and Mavre.
Remember that the HHA know who their fellow HHA are, at least, in the variants of the game I can find.
Think of how you feel as someone without any information. You want to be cautious. You don't want to evict the roomies, because you're scared of taking out innocents, because you see yourself in their position. You also don't want to draw too much attention to yourself because otherwise you'll be a prime target for the first Night cycle (which is why I'm opposed to singling out Darryl for his inactivity).
This is the behavior I expect from Townies, whether first time players or returning ones. Mavre's behavior has been inconsistent with this. However, his behavior is consistent with someone who has information.
Simply put, there are three personalities Mavre might have (with many more that I consider too fringe to be worth mentioning).
Mavre as Earnest Townie: Really enthusiastic about this game and means everything he says.
Mavre as the Bluffing HHA: Using what information he has to get us to Evict someone on Day 1. while simultaneously building up a soft defense by playing himself up as "one of the guys".
Mavre as the Double Bluffing Specialist Townie: He's playing a double bluffing game using his role's special power. Immunity? Counter-eviction? I dunno, the sky's the limit here.
Every further personality (whether Townie or HHA) beyond the double bluff assumes even more intricate bluffing, involving powers I can't even conceive of. At that point it becomes pointless to speculate, which I why I end the possibilities at 2 levels of bluffing. Of those 3, my money is on the second.
The irony is not lost on me that I am putting myself in the same situation as Mavre.
But then again, tonnura-san, his claim is a good thing to townies anyway, since he is going to be clearly the focus of the next night. We don´t really have to trust him, but we can certainly use the information he has given us about his role in the future.
He talked about planting a sapling, an action classic of Animal Crossing, of course he could be bluffing, but this is something we can easily check later on.
Also, I think there is a very good chance this game will have all kinds of roles that will aid the town to avoid the HHA, there is so many characters that can be used in a creative way that I would be disapointed if we start evicting people before we get a chance to see how they work.
No, but he is the very first player to propose a player for eviction. As we can see, my probability analysis pointed everyone's eyes to the roomies. Who is to say he wasn't attempting something similar? It's not so much that he wants Ouro gone, but that, if he was an HHA, it is to his benefit to get use bloodthirsty for anyone at all and he can make a suggestion without targeting his HHA compatriots, unless there's more than one HHA...?
The question is, what information has he displayed knowledge of that most of us don't?
He has shown behavior consistent with additional information, not that he has displayed any additional information itself. When I brought everyone's attention to the roomies, it is with plainly visible statistics. Said information wasn't hidden, can't possibly be hidden. Only, it may be overlooked because not everyone is comfortable with probability.
Mazre, on the other hand, came forth with: "I can do a thing, take my word for it, also we guys should evict someone".
You have to double-read your posts and then decide not to post half of them like me!
You should put this on in the background before you start reading this post.
Hohoho...
You make the assumption that he can't be an HHA with a day action. Nonstandard, sure, but this is a nonstandard game.
No, but he is the very first player to propose a player for eviction. As we can see, my probability analysis pointed everyone's eyes to the roomies. Who is to say he wasn't attempting something similar? It's not so much that he wants Ouro gone, but that, if he was an HHA, it is to his benefit to get use bloodthirsty for anyone at all and he can make a suggestion without targeting his HHA compatriots, unless there's more than one HHA...?
He has shown behavior consistent with additional information, not that he has displayed any additional information itself. When I brought everyone's attention to the roomies, it is with plainly visible statistics. Said information wasn't hidden, can't possibly be hidden. Only, it may be overlooked because not everyone is comfortable with probability.
Mazre, on the other hand, came forth with: "I can do a thing, take my word for it, also we guys should evict someone".
I tripled edited that one and I'm still not pleased with it.
Actually, I did say he could be an HHA with a special day role. I haven't ruled that out.
I think Mazre made his intentions pretty clear; he wanted to stir shit up by nominating some random choice to be evicted. It's true, he wanted to get us bloodthirsty, but I think it was just to get people excited and start some real discussion about where to point our crosshairs.
Now, is it possible he's HHA? Sure it is. I just have no reason to suspect him more than anyone else in this game. His action isn't immediately visible, so we don't know if he's been acting with additional information. Also, he hasn't told us to act based on any additional information, only that he wanted to incite us to take some action. Regardless, if it's true he has a day action, whether HHA or townie, he won't see the results of it until night time or possibly even the following day. So, even if he has this role, I'm not sure what additional information he could possibly have already and I haven't seen him act as if he knows something the rest of us don't.
What specific behaviors are you talking about?
I think Mazre is really just becoming a victim of being too vocal through this whole thing. I'm not entirely sure he's HHA or a townie, but I haven't seen anything conclusive yet. I rather stick to the probabilities than evict someone who I know has a special role, when I don't know what it does yet and I don't know if it help us in the long run.
Haly, we can accuse you of the same thing. It's day one. If HHA goes after Mavre, he dies anyway. If not, then we can start analyzing his intentions. I hope you realizing you've put yourself in the crosshairs pretty early in the game...
That being said, I don't have any suspects at the moment. Haly and Mavre are on my "interesting" list. But we do not have nearly enough information to go after either of them yet.
I think it's worth noting that Mavre claims his role will have an effect regardless of if he survives. Which I thought was interesting. If he was a mafia fake-roleclaiming this early you'd think he'd want to have an ability where he needs to stay alive.
Also, lets keep in mind that, if there is one day role... that means, chances are, there are MORE than one day role, since this kind of games are setup to have a counter for every role, so yeah, it is possible Mavre is HHA, but so can anyone be, realy.
And if anything, the revelation that the roomates are setup with their roles in mind pretty much confirms that there has to be a power role there, chances are one Evil and one townie, no way they are setup so both are evil or both are townies, but there is also the really high chance that the townie role must be either really really good or really really useless.
If I was designing this, I would know for sure that the roomates are made to be the prime target, so how do I keep the balance? Make one of the roomates have the ability to protect itself from night roles, and by protecting themselves, protects both the roomates.
So, as a sadist, I will make the other role evil just to get in a hilarious situation when we HAVE to evict one of them but at the cost of sacrificing the other one, who would have been most likely useful.
Again, lts so how the night roles work, at worst we lose two townies, but we will know a little bit more of how the roles work.
Not a foregone conclusion. Like I said, I believe one specialist is in the double house at least, with some sort of protection role or else Karkador would be doing anyone in that house a disservice just by putting them in there. But I agree with your general point.
But we do not have nearly enough information to go after either of them yet.
I believe that random Evictions favor town in the long run. As I alluded to earlier, the HHA is fighting a war of information, but Town is fighting a war of attrition. Since people seem to be too scared to Evict the Roomies, I proposed Mavre as a secondary choice. Either way, I think there should be at least one eviction on Day 1, and in lieu of any more information Mavre is my best guess. I have others, but they don't lend themselves to any convincing narratives, so I'm not going to mention them.
I think it's worth noting that Mavre claims his role will have an effect regardless of if he survives. Which I thought was interesting. If he was a mafia fake-roleclaiming this early you'd think he'd want to have an ability where he needs to stay alive.
I couldn't say either way. There's too many variables here, because of the unorthadox theme, to make any guesses as to what abilities do what. Until we know more about how the game actually works, I'll stick to picking apart posts and actions.
I think Mazre is really just becoming a victim of being too vocal through this whole thing. I'm not entirely sure he's HHA or a townie, but I haven't seen anything conclusive yet. I rather stick to the probabilities than evict someone who I know has a special role, when I don't know what it does yet and I don't know if it help us in the long run.
That's fine. As always, the Roomies is really the best choice but everyone is afraid of Evicting them. No one else has any alternative suggestions and well... if we picked Ouro as a compromise between Evicting the Roomies and Not Evicting on day 1... Wouldn't that be convenient for Mazre, if my guess is correct?
That's why I bring up Mazre as an alternative choice.
That's fine. As always, the Roomies is really the best choice but everyone is afraid of Evicting them. No one else has any alternative suggestions and well... if we picked Ouro as a compromise between Evicting the Roomies and Not Evicting on day 1... Wouldn't that be convenient for Mazre, if my guess is correct?
That's why I bring up Mazre as an alternative choice.
That's fine. As always, the Roomies is really the best choice but everyone is afraid of Evicting them. No one else has any alternative suggestions and well... if we picked Ouro as a compromise between Evicting the Roomies and Not Evicting on day 1... Wouldn't that be convenient for Mazre, if my guess is correct?
That's why I bring up Mazre as an alternative choice.
If your guess is correct that is. If its not, then nothing of value is loss if we don´t evict him.
I am not afraid of evicting them, and neither most people, in fact, using the word afraid is silly. Its just a move based on aiming for the easy way out. Power roles are made to sniff out the mafia, and if we are randomly kicking out people, then that is twice as bad if we kick out two of them.
There is an alternative... not to evict. Its a game of 21 member, losing one or two in the first night we can afford, chances are the HHA are going to pick either the roomates, mazre, you or me as their first choice, since we are the most active. Unless, of course, someone of us IS HHA.
I think the HHA will choose someone else entirely, tbh. Taking out any one of us gives up more information than taking out someone who hasn't really made a splash.
I'm still on the fence about the roommates (I'm definitely curious about their roles), but I can see Haly's logic with Mazre.
I'll sleep on it and maybe make a decision in the morning.
That's also another way to look at it. I mean, there's a decent chance we'll end up voting someone out accidentally at some point anyway.
Most importantly though, it's just a higher chance of taking out an HHA than if we choose a random square.
Actually, Timeaisis is looking kind of suspect right now. He's awfully concerned about those roomies... perhaps because he knows one of them is HHA? Hmmmm??
Two shots in the dark means higher chance to kill. We have to remember sacrifices will be necessary for the township to oust the HHA menace. We don't win by having more members left.
Two shots in the dark means higher chance to kill. We have to remember sacrifices will be necessary for the township to oust the HHA menace. We don't win by having more members left.
Well, of course. We ideally should be evicting every day. But we should at least have a decent reason for choosing who to evict. Shots in the dark just make this completely a probability game. A probability game favors the HHA.
I'm not going to say we should never ever evict the roommates. If we get some decent leads on either of them, it's worth exploring, of course. It just seems rushed at the moment in an effort to gain an upper hand. But think about the risks involved.
Well, of course. We ideally should be evicting every day. But we should at least have a decent reason for choosing who to evict. Shots in the dark just make this completely a probability game. A probability game favors the HHA.
I'm not going to say we should never ever evict the roommates. If we get some decent leads on either of them, it's worth exploring, of course. It just seems rushed at the moment in an effort to gain an upper hand. But think about the risks involved.
The whole discussion came from taking advantage of our first turn. If we're making a decision blind, may as well may it count. If you don't think we should act rashly, that's one perspective, but I don't see us getting any more information unless somebody starts talking about why they shouldn't be evicted. I think maybe the roomies should chime in on whether or not they should be. Ultron thought it was the right call, but he's been gone for a few pages. I'd like to hear what Fran thinks.
I know that's putting the burden of proof on them and that's an argumenttive fallacy, but Karkador designed the game around these roomies being a point of conflict. It's inevitable.
Well, of course. We ideally should be evicting every day. But we should at least have a decent reason for choosing who to evict. Shots in the dark just make this completely a probability game. A probability game favors the HHA.
I'm not going to say we should never ever evict the roommates. If we get some decent leads on either of them, it's worth exploring, of course. It just seems rushed at the moment in an effort to gain an upper hand. But think about the risks involved.
I agree here. 2 shots in the dark is twice the chance to kill a HHA, but it's also twice the chance to kill any potential information gathering roles. I don't think the best long-term course of action is to kill those 2 immediately. In the short-term, it's a good idea (because like you said, 2x chance). But we're also not anywhere near being in a huge rush to kill a HHA member, especially not at 2x the risk of losing a potentially useful power.
If we kill 1 HHA member, and 1 normal villager that's good, but it's also not like this is our only chance to evict them both simultaneously. Why put ourselves at twice the risk this early on?
Lunchtime, hooray, posting from phone though so no fancy formatting.
LMQ and Haly you two are doing great work. I can't really fault Haly's arguments, other than to say they are on the aggressive side. By the same token my approach has been as well. LMQ's thinking mirrors mine fairly closely. I sincerely hope both of you are town.
Don't know if it will help or hurt but I will update my vote to match my current feelings.
VOTE: franconp
Further post to follow...don't want browser to eat this.
