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[squidyj]

we have 14 players left?
lets assume we started with 5 mafia because its a good number for a town this size, the game could be harder or easier but 5 makes a lot of sense.
if we vote the roomies and another and we're wrong on both counts we drop to 10,
or 6 and 4

which would put us into MiLo the next day.

I think the only world where voting the roomies today is the best play is the one where ultron is the mafia and he's trying to get us not to lynch him. I believe we can generate two solid mafia leads today, I believe we already have the first one, I voted on him. It only gets harder for franconp to appear townie as the game goes on if he's really mafia cop, he's basically forced to give information every day and if his information isn't helping town at this point in the game it becomes very suspicious.

What I think we really ought to be doing is looking at behaviour from day 3 to day 4 and analyzing it under the microscope using what we know now. namely, that the best explanation we have for no night kill is that mafia found their silent partner.

 

[Timeaisis]

Right, but it was the...what, second night? He might not have gotten that far. And given the amount of people claiming ordinary villager the odds are in favor of that.

Fair enough. Probably just to earn trust then, knowing I was in chat with Razmos and probably revealed to him. So basically, a gambit that (at the time) seemed like:

1. Razmos is town
2. Time is town
2. Franconp is town

Basically, a three-for-one kind of deal. If one is lying, then all seem like they are lying. Seems logical.

 

[nin1000]

Why do you hate me nin ;_;

Spoiler

I'll stop posting. I didn't think I was bothering anyone posting some jokes, but I guess not

Keep it up mate Haha I don't hate you 😘

 

[Haly]

WHAT

 

[tomakasatnav]

Hmm, odd you investigated the one player that would normally fall in Kalor's range as well.

Not sure why Fran would lie about this, unless the numbers are getting close to HHA winning and people seeing I wasn't lying won't matter as the game is coming to an end?

 

[tomakasatnav]

Sorry, I've had a correction from Karkador, there was activity in my area last night!

 

[squidyj]

Sorry, I've had a correction from Karkador, there was activity in my area last night!

goddamnit kark >_<

 

[ultron87]

Sorry, I've had a correction from Karkador, there was activity in my area last night!

Well, this is awkward.

 

[Haly]

Toma can't lie about his role, otherwise he'd be a clairvoyant here:

It's nice to see that we definitely have another Light Sleeper and that we didn't end accidentally lynch you today.

While I believe you, I have a way of proving for definite that you are the other light sleeper. There is a piece of information about my role that I've said that was wrong. It wasn't on purpose at the time as I was told two conflicting pieces of information about my role but since then I've been corrected by Karkador. I decided to hold off on revealing this as I realized that it could be used to prove the other Light Sleeper. It's a small fact but it could change some stuff.

No problem. This is why I've split my information up and in my post above said I was going to wait for you. I didn't want to call you out as having lied since I've also had this clarified more recently.

Activity is BY people in our area as Kalor had said previously, but also things done ON people within our areas.

There is literally no way Toma could confirm Kalor's misinformation without being a Light Sleeper...

But that doesn't mean he can't be a Light Sleeper HHA! There was never a silent kill, but Toma was keeping information from us all along!

 

[Haly]

karkador plz

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

I think it's worth saying that Kark being wrong could be made up

Awkward situation if he genuinely was wrong though, given we only have tom's word on that

 

[tomakasatnav]

Yeah, I don't know if Kark can post anything to clear that up since me lying about it being corrected could totally be a thing once 'outed' by Fran.

Should make the start of today interesting at least!

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

Haly makes a valid point. Cool. Never mind. Now hopefully fran doesn't turn out to be HHA. Because then I'd be in the shit.

Wondering what use a HHA light sleeper would be. Not really enough info for them to go off for it to be useful, I don't think.

 

[Karkador]

I had to make a correction to something I sent a player; vague, but that's all I can confirm.

Sorry about that; there was a lot of stuff for this update!

 

[tomakasatnav]

Yeah, as Haly handily quoted up there, hopefully Fran didn't investigate RNH just to test the two (known) light sleepers since we kinda came together to confirm the role in full.

So, RNH could be an ordinary villager, or Fran combining that with Kalor and myself being able to confirm RNH hadn't been active at all in the first few nights to take attention away from RNH (don't think he's been caught up in any voting recently?)

 

[EzekelRAGE]

The whole thing with toma is fishy with him saying there was no activity and flipping. One way we can decided on Fran is to still evict RNH today. Was kinda weird he investigated RNH when he specifically said he wouldn't investigate in Kalor/Toma's area night 5 at some point the previous day. I say we vote no evict for one slot and RNH/Ouro or another candidate in the other. If I had my way, would vote Ouro as well. We could work together as town to make it happen to where they are both the top spots, but if we wrong, could kill two town. If we evict RNH, we can get more confirmation on Fran's alignment. If RNH isn't a good candidate, then Ouro.

 

[Haly]

I just don't know anymore, I'm drowning in despair.

Vote: Haly

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Ignore the toma part, since it seems to be cleared up?

 

[squidyj]

Fair enough. Probably just to earn trust then, knowing I was in chat with Razmos and probably revealed to him. So basically, a gambit that (at the time) seemed like:

1. Razmos is town
2. Time is town
2. Franconp is town

Basically, a three-for-one kind of deal. If one is lying, then all seem like they are lying. Seems logical.

as far as i am concerned you and razmos are confirmed town. I don't really buy into bigger plays, they're easier to dream up as town than they are to actually implement as mafia, they happen but town's more likely to fuck itself over by spending too much time looking for it, and fearing it when games are often simpler than that.

Of course I also have continual notes about you two behaving in a townie fashion most of the game so that helps.

 

[squidyj]

i dont know why people say toma. i always see "Tom AKA Satnav"

 

[Haly]

For what it's worth, even though I think Ultron is HHA, I think he's realizes that francorp being free to investigate is a much larger threat to the HHA as a whole, and this is also why he blew his ability just now, because he's willing to take an eviction to cripple us and force us into it.

I would not evict ultron/francorp until at least one other HHA is found.

 

[squidyj]

So maybe people who were there can explain a little bit more but nin was voted on day 3 and not at all on day 4, I'm rereading and there was discussion but it seemed mostly deflected away from nin into people who claimed vanilla town and he never got voted on again.

 

[tomakasatnav]

i dont know why people say toma. i always see "Tom AKA Satnav"

 

[squidyj]

wait we get two evictions today, if we evict one by strict majority we get the results immediately? like if we all just up and voted ourobolus, we would get his role back before the end of the day?

 

[ultron87]

For what it's worth, even though I think Ultron is HHA, I think he's realizes that francorp being free to investigate is a much larger threat to the HHA as a whole, and this is also why he blew his ability just now, because he's willing to take an eviction to cripple us and force us into it.

I would not evict ultron/francorp until at least one other HHA is found.

Whether killing us or not is the best move this is the absolute best time for us to have two evictions. We have a ton of new information with our first kill, especially considering we can look over two days where Hobohodo was on the voting block. Also, this might be the largest Town to HHA ratio we're going to have for the rest of the game unless things go super well for us. So this is the most votes we'll have to utilize both evicts as well.

 

[Kevyt]

 

[squidyj]

nevermind i read the fofllowup post kark made,

 

[Ourobolus]

Ultron's ability makes it imperative that we try to get as many mafia as possible today. Based on hobo's ability and ultron's usage of his ability, I'm thinking that neither he nor Fran is mafia (maybe one is neutral). But, regardless, I am suspicious of anyone Franconp has "confirmed." Fran may be covering for some sort of win condition, but I honestly have no idea.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

wait we get two evictions today, if we evict one by strict majority we get the results immediately? like if we all just up and voted ourobolus, we would get his role back before the end of the day?

Wish it was that way, but doesnt seem so. The two majorities, or no evict and person with majority gets it.

 

[Ourobolus]

i dont know why people say toma. i always see "Tom AKA Satnav"

Lol, that's how I read his name too.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Remaining Players:
Haly
Darryl
RNH
Toma
Ouro
Retro
ER
Nin
Franconp
Ultron
Razmos
Timeaisis
Squidyj
KingKitty

From Hobo's message, there are at least 3 more HHA, but let's say 4. So they when there are 8 players left in the game. S. We may have like 2 days where we can be wrong and still be ok? I say we leave roomies and force HHA to take out their own as well as investigator if they want him out so badly. I think Ultron used his ability because he figured we would come to the conclusion that he was the older nephew since his role is very similar to Hobo's. He probably felt like he had to use it in case it was his last chance night.

 

[Haly]

Ultron's ability makes it imperative that we try to get as many mafia as possible today. Based on hobo's ability and ultron's usage of his ability, I'm thinking that neither he nor Fran is mafia (maybe one is neutral). But, regardless, I am suspicious of anyone Franconp has "confirmed." Fran may be covering for some sort of win condition, but I honestly have no idea.

Wrong move.

Vote: Ourobolus

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Actually, they have to outnumber town, so maybe 3 days.

 

[squidyj]

Remaining Players:
Haly
Darryl
RNH
Toma
Ouro
Retro
ER
Nin
Franconp
Ultron
Razmos
Timeaisis
Squidyj
KingKitty

From Hobo's message, there are at least 3 more HHA, but let's say 4. So they when there are 8 players left in the game. S. We may have like 2 days where we can be wrong and still be ok? I say we leave roomies and force HHA to take out their own as well as investigator if they want him out so badly. I think Ultron used his ability because he figured we would come to the conclusion that he was the older nephew since his role is very similar to Hobo's. He probably felt like he had to use it in case it was his last chance night.

yeah 5 is probably the correct number of starting mafia

if we miss on 2 regular dudes today that puts us at 7-4 tomorrow
which would mean that a miss that day would take us to 5-4 the day after which would be LyLo

so we need to lynch one mafia in the next 4 tries to stay in this game but I think we're going to get ouro today and I'm sure he's mafia so we could go as high as 9-2 if we get another mafia with him

 

[ultron87]

Also the No Kill night was probably them activating their sleeper HHA person. So we probably don't have a doctor.

I realize that there is logical reason based on symmetry of abilities to believe this is me, but it is not.

 

[Timeaisis]

Remaining Players:
Haly
Darryl
RNH
Toma
Ouro
Retro
ER
Nin
Franconp
Ultron
Razmos
Timeaisis
Squidyj
KingKitty

From Hobo's message, there are at least 3 more HHA, but let's say 4. So they when there are 8 players left in the game. S. We may have like 2 days where we can be wrong and still be ok? I say we leave roomies and force HHA to take out their own as well as investigator if they want him out so badly. I think Ultron used his ability because he figured we would come to the conclusion that he was the older nephew since his role is very similar to Hobo's. He probably felt like he had to use it in case it was his last chance night.

Yeah, I'm kind of inclined to agree here. Does anyone have a link to ultron's role claim? I can't seem to find the post.

 

[squidyj]

i shouldnt have used the word correct, it makes people think i have perfect information about the number of mafia which i could only have if i was mafia. I just meant that 5 mafia would be about the right number for a game this size

 

[Haly]

Yeah, I'm kind of inclined to agree here. Does anyone have a link to ultron's role claim? I can't seem to find the post.

So, the pure statistics of the matter are all true, though I think the news about our specific roles being decided to be together throws most of that out the window. If the roles and alignments weren't randomly placed then we suddenly can't just play the statistics game. (I wish we didn't have to play "guess the designer's intent", but here we are.)

And I guess I might as well do this now.

Really, my town role doesn't really seem to have any particular relation to the roommate situation. I've got "Troublemaker", which lets me, once per game, declare during the night phase that there will be two evictions on the following day. The town would get informed I caused the double vote, but not if I'm town or not. I guess there's some sort of relation between the two of us being able to fall victim to a single vote and me causing people to have to vote for two people, but it certainly doesn't have anything to do with my partner directly or give me any knowledge about them. Any ability to use it effectively seems countered by being in the huge ass target house, since it gets better the later you are in the game, and me lasting late into the game seems pretty unlikely.

It's consistent, if that's what you were wondering.

 

[squidyj]

Also the No Kill night was probably them activating their sleeper HHA person. So we probably don't have a doctor.

I realize that there is logical reason based on symmetry of abilities to believe this is me, but it is not.

thats what I was talking about above, if they found their lost member on n3 we should really look at how interactions changed between d3 and d4, for example nin lost a lot of the heat he was catching in d3.

 

[Haly]

Also the No Kill night was probably them activating their sleeper HHA person.

The what?

 

[squidyj]

The what?

the night where nobody got 'Evicted'

 

[ultron87]

The what?

Read Hobohodo's role:

If you attempt to Evict your lost partner, they will instead become a full-fledged partner with eviction/night-chat privileges.

 

[Haly]

Wow I missed that part.

 

[Ourobolus]

thats what I was talking about above, if they found their lost member on n3 we should really look at how interactions changed between d3 and d4, for example nin lost a lot of the heat he was catching in d3.

I agree. There has to be something. I know for a fact that RNH can't make a decision without me making it for him first, for instance.

Wrong move.

Vote: Ourobolus

What move? It's an observation! If Fran is telling the truth, we get...
1) a mafia. Yay!
2) a mafia that can evict twice. Yay! Shit.

Since he clearly was truthful, we have two options:
1) he is town and had no ulterior motive with evicting hobo
2) he is HHA and is on with sacrificing his comrade otherwise

At this point I am inclined to evict those that have been out of sorts. We seem to discount the inactives as mafia, but we really don't kno

 

[Ourobolus]

W.

Stupid no edit rule.

 

[squidyj]

I agree. There has to be something. I know for a fact that RNH can't make a decision without me making it for him first, for instance.



What move? It's an observation! If Fran is telling the truth, we get...
1) a mafia. Yay!
2) a mafia that can evict twice. Yay! Shit.

Since he clearly was truthful, we have two options:
1) he is town and had no ulterior motive with evicting hobo
2) he is HHA and is on with sacrificing his comrade otherwise

At this point I am inclined to evict those that have been out of sorts. We seem to discount the inactives as mafia, but we really don't kno

I love you man but you're mafia and talking about other people sheeping your reads is the most delicious irony I have seen in this thread.

 

[Ourobolus]

Read Hobohodo's role:

Oh. Damn, I was thinking that was the commuter.

But still, they had a what, 3/23 chance at that point? There isn't much info to go on there other than the rest of the evictions.

 

[Haly]

You said neither ultron nor fran are HHA (the chances of this being true are very slight), and you threw suspicion on fran's "confirmed" targets when fran is the one that got this ball rolling in the first place!

How can this not be extremely suspicious?

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I just don't know anymore, I'm drowning in despair.

Vote: Haly

 

[Ourobolus]

I love you man but you're mafia and talking about other people sheeping your reads is the most delicious irony I have seen in this thread.

I answered your initial request. Other than that, you have nothing other than conjecture. Your suspicion amounted to "I think we should get this guy." I suggest you look elsewhere, because I haven't claimed for a reason. I don't want to say anything or else we will be at a severe disadvantage.