oh I don't think timmy and the lost partner would be one in the same, if we believe that mafia hit the roomies then It'd have to be franco as lost member but I don' tbelieve franco is mafia or at the very least isn't the mafia we should be looking at today.
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Animal Crossing Mafia |OT| - Making Animal Friends Is Awesome!
- Thread starter Karkador
- Start date
oh I don't think timmy and the lost partner would be one in the same, if we believe that mafia hit the roomies then It'd have to be franco as lost member but I don' tbelieve franco is mafia or at the very least isn't the mafia we should be looking at today.
I don't know how else to read this than you saying that the activation of a Triator wouldn't also protect that Traitor from the lynching. I hope you realize how ridiculous this sounds.
Okay, this is what you're effectively arguing:
Assumptions:
- If the Traitor is among the Roomies, and the sleeper gets activated, then the Villager Roomies get evicted but the Traitor wouldn't
Conclusion:
- Because both Ultron and franconp are alive, the Traitor is therefore not among the Roomies and they were never targeted
Here is my counterargument:
1) So far, every eviction, whether from HHA or Village has seen the house burned down, you're giving the double house an exemption from this pattern assuming the Traitor ever winds up in that house
2) What would this do to the remaining roommate, if he survives an eviction but his partner doesn't, when Karkador made a point of saying that any action taken against one of them affects both?
Your mental construct of the sleeper role includes many exceptions and caveats for what happens if the Traitor was a Roomie, but you never believed the Traitor is in the Roommates in the first place. Why have these additional rules for partial evictions if there was never a chance the Traitor winds up as a roommate in the first place? Kark was very explicit about this. Assignment of player to spaces was random, but all the roles and their positions were explicitly designed that way.
Come off it. You've never once made a compelling argument in this thread, and your "suspicions" are fueled purely by how much beef you have with this or that poster. This is why you're being ignored and why I'm ignoring you. Your "accusations" are so flimsy as to be not worth my time addressing.
I don't see the point about having this discussion at this point.
I don't think it's a good idea evicting us, it's what Ultron and HHA want us to do. That's why we didn't get evicted the last night phase and that's why Ultron used his role now, even when we don't have a clue about another HHA. Most of us are pretty sure Ultron is HHA but I think we shouldn't focus in him in this phase.
I think we should discuss who the two evicitions will be.
I don't think it's a good idea evicting us, it's what Ultron and HHA want us to do. That's why we didn't get evicted the last night phase and that's why Ultron used his role now, even when we don't have a clue about another HHA. Most of us are pretty sure Ultron is HHA but I think we shouldn't focus in him in this phase.
I think we should discuss who the two evicitions will be.
That was my point in all this.
Anyway I'll keep my vote on Ouro and it seems Kingkitty is going to take silver.
RIP kitty
The only poster I've ever had beef with was Mazre for calling me arbitrarily to the chopping block from the start, who I'd later do a 180 on and call one of the few people I felt were guaranteed villagers. I was at the opposite spot with you, who I felt like you were guaranteed villager from the start. I never had a problem with you until things in this village stopped adding up, I read a "how 2 play mafia" guide, and all of a sudden it became quite blatant at how you could be string pulling. And I refuse to end this game being so cleverly outplayed.
Ouro and Kingkitty, definitely. Haly is a close third, though.
And I'm still not convinced you aren't HHA, though.
So I'm going to outline why I think we absolutely need to vote Ouro out today in case somebody isn't up to date. The first argument is something that was noticed much earlier by Launchpad and RNH, they both found that ouro was basically a non-entity in the game. They read that as him having more information than he was letting on, basically being a power role.
So we start with an Ouro who isn't really doing much of anything and starting from when we get in the game I decide I want to pressure him. He responds like this
So particularly ezekal and myself begin pressuring him for his role and he is incredibly evasive and unwilling to give any sort of role information, which ultimately leads to this.
To which I reply as below and he acts like he never made his previous claims about what would happen if he revealed his role.
He also made this post which paradoxically divorces the towniness of franconp's checks from the towniness of franconp himself. If franconp is townie then he's not lying about his checks and therefore the people he checks as ordinary villager must be so, you can't believe one without the other and this marks a stunning failure in logic.
Finally he claims to be a power role that could get another townie killed during the day if we vote him out. Which taken together with the rest of his behaviour, cannot be seen as at all believable.
But Wait! There's More!
All throughout this process his defense has taken wildly different tones, when he first refused to claim his role he suggested I was something of a confused town who was just shooting in the dark, he transitioned that into accusing me of being mafia when he was further pressed and now he is being very accomodating "I don't expect you to believe me" Which is something that is particularly troubling when we consider the nature of the role he revealed at that point, if he's town and there's a 100% chance that voting him would get another town killed then this is the point I believe a townie would be MOST forceful in their defense, because if he was telling the truth we would be making a MASSIVE mistake to lynch him, instead he becomes conciliatory with those he earlier accused of being mafia, if you believe I'm mafia trying to railroad you why don't you appeal to the rest of town? why don't you do anything other than what you've done?
We have to evict Ourobolus, today. and if he's telling the truth then god help us all but I don't believe him for even a second.
So we start with an Ouro who isn't really doing much of anything and starting from when we get in the game I decide I want to pressure him. He responds like this
So particularly ezekal and myself begin pressuring him for his role and he is incredibly evasive and unwilling to give any sort of role information, which ultimately leads to this.
To which I reply as below and he acts like he never made his previous claims about what would happen if he revealed his role.
He also made this post which paradoxically divorces the towniness of franconp's checks from the towniness of franconp himself. If franconp is townie then he's not lying about his checks and therefore the people he checks as ordinary villager must be so, you can't believe one without the other and this marks a stunning failure in logic.
Finally he claims to be a power role that could get another townie killed during the day if we vote him out. Which taken together with the rest of his behaviour, cannot be seen as at all believable.
But Wait! There's More!
All throughout this process his defense has taken wildly different tones, when he first refused to claim his role he suggested I was something of a confused town who was just shooting in the dark, he transitioned that into accusing me of being mafia when he was further pressed and now he is being very accomodating "I don't expect you to believe me" Which is something that is particularly troubling when we consider the nature of the role he revealed at that point, if he's town and there's a 100% chance that voting him would get another town killed then this is the point I believe a townie would be MOST forceful in their defense, because if he was telling the truth we would be making a MASSIVE mistake to lynch him, instead he becomes conciliatory with those he earlier accused of being mafia, if you believe I'm mafia trying to railroad you why don't you appeal to the rest of town? why don't you do anything other than what you've done?
We have to evict Ourobolus, today. and if he's telling the truth then god help us all but I don't believe him for even a second.
Remember, you vote for me, you're voting for contradicting behavior.
1) You're voting for the reality that Mazre invited 2 mafia into his gossip chat!
2) You believe I was trying to gain the trust of mafia by having franconp out Hobodobo through an investigation. That Hobodobo was expendable.
3) But yet Hobodobo was not expendable??? That I would risk all suspicion by trying to save him at all costs??
The behavior doesn't make sense as mafia. It's clear as day. Voting for me is ignoring this issue. Ezkielrage has been reaching hard. He really thinks he's right, and is willing to ignore any behavior that puts holes in his theory.
1) You're voting for the reality that Mazre invited 2 mafia into his gossip chat!
2) You believe I was trying to gain the trust of mafia by having franconp out Hobodobo through an investigation. That Hobodobo was expendable.
3) But yet Hobodobo was not expendable??? That I would risk all suspicion by trying to save him at all costs??
The behavior doesn't make sense as mafia. It's clear as day. Voting for me is ignoring this issue. Ezkielrage has been reaching hard. He really thinks he's right, and is willing to ignore any behavior that puts holes in his theory.
EzekelRAGE
Member
My point the traitors ability wouldn't save the other room mate. You are wrong about there being a sleeper agent in the roomies.
I pm'd Kark about it. He didn't state whether the lost partner's ability would count as a passive or action, but he did specifically state that any entered command must be performed on both roomies.
If that was your point the whole time, why even bring it up in the first place? You were the one that brought up the argument that the Ultron was somehow both Timmy AND the lost partner. Which made no sense at all. It seems you only did all this to deflect a little attention off of Kingkitty.
I don't care about your lost partner theory. The contradiction is the behavior between trying to throw Hobodobo under the bus. But then moments later, do everything in my power to save Hobodobo. That's what puts doubt upon your lost partner theory. You have tunnel vision.
EzekelRAGE
Member
You ignored my response to you. I see you didn't mention my theory that you are the lost partner or how your vote counts still didn't add up. You did mention the hobo thing again though.
To go further with this. The protection of the roomie from the eviction wouldnt be an entered command.
I repeat. You suffer from tunnel vision.
EzekelRAGE
Member
You don't care about the lost partner theory because you can't do anything to refute it. Your only defense to it is "other games it is normal for normies to fake claim to draw attn away from power town roles" and "to distract mafia". You also still havent said anything about the vote count you say you did.
to move in another direction I'm surprised there hasn't been significant discussion of nin, nin is actually one of my top suspects for lost partner. I've mentioned one of the reasons why already but I'd rather hold the others a little closer to my vest to see if someone else in town can articulate them.
I outlined my logic for freak when I voted for him. But continue your witch hunt.
At this point nin is the most recent vote for me, and considering I've been suspicious of him, this actually may end up working out in the town's favor, which works for me.
No it's a great theory if it wasn't destroyed by clear contradictions. That's my defense. My behavior makes no sense.
Why would I try to throw Hobodobo under the bus? To gain trust with the townies.
But then moments later.
I do everything in my power to save Hobodobo at the last second, almost causing a tie, and effectively destroying any trust with the townies.
What sense is that? It makes no sense. But your tunnel vision is keeping you from considering that I might not actually be the lost partner. That my contradicting behavior wouldn't make sense as mafia.
And I already did talk my vote count, I counted "1,2,3,4,5". Let's not be obtuse.
EzekelRAGE
Member
1 - Once again, you keep on going on about the Hobo contradiction tearing a hole through the partner theory.
2 - As you have said, a HHA throwing a member on the bus to gain trust is nothing new.
3 - What is this "moments later"? A little after Hobo got around 2 votes you started in on the posts saying "don't evict Hobo, investigate him. Wouldn't be fair to evict him w/o giving him the chance to defend himself."
4 - Can you stop acting like you made some big scene about not voting for Hobo? You used the time constraint to your advantage and acted like you were confused.
5 - You didn't go into detail about your voting. I proved how your "1,2,3" counting still wouldnt make it a tie and you keep ignoring it.
But you do know I tried to throw Hobodobo under the bus by having franconp investigate him?
But then moments later I tried to save Hobodob at all costs by nearly causing a tie.
Why at one moment I believed Hobodobo to be expendable in order to gain townie trust. But then he wasn't expendable at all, and I was willing to throw all trust out of the window?
Can you reconcile these weird, contradicting behavior that doesn't make sense as mafia strategy?
EzekelRAGE
Member
It makes sense if the mafioso wanted to use the contradictory behavior as defense.
1- I keep going on about because that's my defense. And it's a good defense. It's a defense that you can only hand wave away.
2-Yes throwing a member (hobodobo) under the bus is nothing new. So why would I throw that plan out by then trying to save hobodobo no matter what??? Makes no sense.
3- Lol, don't get hung up on that. I'm pretty sure it was within a day this whole thing came down. You get weird nitpicky, maybe it's because you don't have a good argument?
4-A big scene? What are you going on about? I think you need to realize that maybe your whole theory is basicially in doubt when you consider the clear contradictions. By me voting at the last second, nearly causing a tie, I obviously made myself a huge target. Why make myself a huge target trying to save Hobodobo, when earlier I was willing to throw him under the bus. You have tunnel vision.
5-How wouldn't it make sense. I counted "1,2,3,4,5" like I just counted. You didn't prove jack. But if that's the one thing you want to argue about, and not the contradicting behavior. So be it. The contradicting behavior is the main thing that puts holes in your theory.
definition of reaching
EzekelRAGE
Member
Ok guys, King is just going to keep going in circles, dodging questions, and only cherry picking the questions he wants to answer. I think it's pretty clear he was the lost partner.
What? You're the one who is ignoring contradictions. Your tunnel vision has caused you look at only one piece of the puzzle, and then swat away anything that puts strong doubt upon your argument.
As the person who is being wrongly accused, I have every right to fight for my non-eviction. If that upsets you, then so be it. I would hope you would fight just as hard if you were wrongfully accused.
I clearly outlined my defense.
You vote for me, you vote for the logic that
1) Mazre invited 2(!) mafia into his gossip chat. And there's maybe 3-4 total mafia in the whole game.
2) That Hobodobo was expendable. So I tried to gain the trust of the town by throwing him under the bus by getting franconp to investigate him.
3) That Hobodobo was very non-expendable. So I was willing to throw townie trust out of the window and save Hobodobo at the last second, at all costs.
Even if you think 1 is somehow likely. 2 and 3 contradict. It doesn't make sense as mafia behavior. This is my defense. Lets not make the wrong decision here.
I think we should discuss Ourobolus roleclaim.
If what he is saying is true and evict him we almost lost. Thinking there may be 4 more HHA and we evict 3 townies this turn it means we are in a 6 townies and 4 HHA situation. We will have no margin of error. If we make a mistake HHA wins. It's too risky.
I can investigate him this night phase and confirm if his role is true or not.
If what he is saying is true and evict him we almost lost. Thinking there may be 4 more HHA and we evict 3 townies this turn it means we are in a 6 townies and 4 HHA situation. We will have no margin of error. If we make a mistake HHA wins. It's too risky.
I can investigate him this night phase and confirm if his role is true or not.
EzekelRAGE
Member
Even if he is correct, we could handle mislynch. Probably should invest someone else. It's very odd that he waited so long to role claim. None of his postings in prior days points to the fact that he was trying to get the HHA to purposely target him. If h wouldve claimed a power role, maybe. But so far he hasn't really started the discussions on who to vote. Think most the ppl he ended up voting for had doubt already caste on them as well.
Exactly, if that was my ability i'd be making myself the biggest target possible to the HHA as soon as possible, that way he could actually help the town.
As it stands it seems like a fake ability he made up to scare us away from voting for him, and it's a very transparent attempt.
If there are 4 HHA more there isn't any margin. It would put us in a 6 vs 4 situation. If the next day we evict another townie we lose.
Also I don't think Ourobolus could organize something with is Gossip group. Remember that his Gossip group was just Foshy, who didn't invite him until the second day and then went MIA.
I'm not saying I believe him. I don't trust him at all but the stakes are too high. I'm saying that you give me one turn to investigate him and see if he is lying or not.
Also I don't think Ourobolus could organize something with is Gossip group. Remember that his Gossip group was just Foshy, who didn't invite him until the second day and then went MIA.
I'm not saying I believe him. I don't trust him at all but the stakes are too high. I'm saying that you give me one turn to investigate him and see if he is lying or not.
Ouro did roleclaim as Ordinary Villager in the first night of my gossip group. (When Foshy was still running it.) He stated that he didn't want to claim because everyone else was claiming. However, it might have been a trap for Foshy, if he suspected Foshy/Me as being HHA.
This all assumes that his claim is true, of course.
all you're going to get back is role name and why would you even lie about that? you can spin abilities and alignment any way you want.
how would that be a trap? ordinary villager is like exactly who you don't want to be targetting if you're HHA. You already know who all the town are, you just need to find the power roles, him telling you he's not a power role is asking you not to kill him if you're HHA.
That is an excellent point.
I know. I have been saying that for a long time but if his role really is Vengeful Villager I think it does what he said it does. We wouldn't know of his aligment but at least it would give us some info.
Power roles would claim ordinary villager, not power roles.
People claimed Gossip because who cares? They just chat with people at night. Kalor claimed because it was necessary to give credence to his information (activity). It's something that's meant to be shared (and he still survived a few rounds with no one bothering him).
No, Villager claims are the ones to go after because they have something to hide.
People claimed Gossip because who cares? They just chat with people at night. Kalor claimed because it was necessary to give credence to his information (activity). It's something that's meant to be shared (and he still survived a few rounds with no one bothering him).
No, Villager claims are the ones to go after because they have something to hide.
Hobohodo lied about what his role did if he hadn't been dumb and said he targeted himself n4 how would we have shown that it wasn't the case? I don't believe Ouro's role does what he says it does precisely because it would be so awful for town if it was true. It's exactly the sort of ability you'd claim when your only goal is to not get lynched.
Then everybody claims Vanilla Town and the HHA is back to picking at random, either way it's not a trap.
RobotNinjaHornets
Banned
Good lord a lot of stuff happened today. Will get more involved tomorrow, my brain didn't want to do any thinking today
Also if his roleclaim were true, he's used it in the worst possible way
Can we get a vote count Kark?
damnit alcohol
Also if his roleclaim were true, he's used it in the worst possible way
Can we get a vote count Kark?
Lets suggest for a moment that he's town and you investigate him and verify his role name.
A. we're going to have to pick somebody else
we either pick two other people today or one and no evict, It looks like kingkitty and MAYBE nin to me? how do you feel about lynching them?
B. We're still going to need to ask ourselves whether we believe his claim tomorrow, and I can't see the desire to vote him decreasing because the only thing that would be surprising would be if vengeful villager wasn't his role name in which case it'd be even more obvious that he's mafia than it is now.
I don't think we gain anything by waiting for you to invest him.
Hopefully Ourobolus is lying. Otherwise we lose 3 townies in the day phase.
Scenario 1 (The least ideal situation):
We lose 3 townies today, and 1 townie in the night phase. 14-4=10
Worst case scenario, there are 4 mafia to 6 townies. That means Day 7 we can't make any mistakes. If we do a bad eviction, the day after it might 4 mafia to 4 townies.
Best case scenario, there are only 3 mafia. That means we get two days to get it right. Day 7 it will be 3 mafia to 7 townies. If make mistakes on that day, then Day 8 it might be 3 mafia to 5 townies.
Scenario 2:
We lose 2 townies today (Ourobolus was bluffing and was an innocent), and 1 townie in the night phase. 14-3=11
Worst case scenario, on Day 7 it will be 4 mafia to 7 townies. We make mistakes, and Day 8 it might be 4 mafia to 5 townies.
Best case scenario, on Day 7 it will be 3 mafia to 8 townies. We make mistakes, and Day 8 it will be 3 mafia to 6 townies. We make more mistakes, and Day 9 it will be 3 mafia to 5 townies.
Scenario 3 (the situation that seems like the best bet)
We lose 1 townie today (me), we kill 1 mafia, and we lose 1 townie in the night phase. 14-3=11
Worst case scenario, on Day 7 it will be 3 mafia to 8 townies. We make mistakes, and Day 8 it will be 3 mafia to 6 townies. Day 9 it will be 3 mafia to 4 townies. In the worst case scenario, we have maybe 3 more days to make bad mistakes.
Best case scenario, on Day 7 it will be 2 mafia to 9 townies. Day 8 it will be 2 mafia to 7 townies. Day 9 it will be 2 mafia to 5 townies. Day 10 it will be 2 mafia to 3 townies. We might have 4 more days to make bad mistakes.
Obviously this doesn't take in consideration the roomie situation. But generally, we probably have 2, maybe 3 days to be wrong. Also if I end up evicted, I expect a letter of apology by Ezekiel to my new address in Tacoville.
Scenario 1 (The least ideal situation):
We lose 3 townies today, and 1 townie in the night phase. 14-4=10
Worst case scenario, there are 4 mafia to 6 townies. That means Day 7 we can't make any mistakes. If we do a bad eviction, the day after it might 4 mafia to 4 townies.
Best case scenario, there are only 3 mafia. That means we get two days to get it right. Day 7 it will be 3 mafia to 7 townies. If make mistakes on that day, then Day 8 it might be 3 mafia to 5 townies.
Scenario 2:
We lose 2 townies today (Ourobolus was bluffing and was an innocent), and 1 townie in the night phase. 14-3=11
Worst case scenario, on Day 7 it will be 4 mafia to 7 townies. We make mistakes, and Day 8 it might be 4 mafia to 5 townies.
Best case scenario, on Day 7 it will be 3 mafia to 8 townies. We make mistakes, and Day 8 it will be 3 mafia to 6 townies. We make more mistakes, and Day 9 it will be 3 mafia to 5 townies.
Scenario 3 (the situation that seems like the best bet)
We lose 1 townie today (me), we kill 1 mafia, and we lose 1 townie in the night phase. 14-3=11
Worst case scenario, on Day 7 it will be 3 mafia to 8 townies. We make mistakes, and Day 8 it will be 3 mafia to 6 townies. Day 9 it will be 3 mafia to 4 townies. In the worst case scenario, we have maybe 3 more days to make bad mistakes.
Best case scenario, on Day 7 it will be 2 mafia to 9 townies. Day 8 it will be 2 mafia to 7 townies. Day 9 it will be 2 mafia to 5 townies. Day 10 it will be 2 mafia to 3 townies. We might have 4 more days to make bad mistakes.
Obviously this doesn't take in consideration the roomie situation. But generally, we probably have 2, maybe 3 days to be wrong. Also if I end up evicted, I expect a letter of apology by Ezekiel to my new address in Tacoville.
One more thing - I looked up Vengeful Villager online in the Mafia Wiki. It's a real role, but their description says that the targeted villager is able to kill/evict someone of their choice. (Like the Hunter role in Werewolf.) It's not a straight response.
I don't 100% know how this information is helpful, but I feel like it is.
Options as I see them.
1. Ouro could be lying about the role and misremembering a role from another game.
2. Ouro could be telling the truth but messing up the details to try and intimidate people.
3. Ouro could be completely correct, and I'm wrong. It's happened before.
I don't 100% know how this information is helpful, but I feel like it is.
Options as I see them.
1. Ouro could be lying about the role and misremembering a role from another game.
2. Ouro could be telling the truth but messing up the details to try and intimidate people.
3. Ouro could be completely correct, and I'm wrong. It's happened before.
like a town aligned jester.
I'm fairly convinced there isn't a doctor but I'm not entirely convinced there isn't some role that provides protection for town sort of like the opposite of hobohodo, slowing down mafia killings.
I don't think that his role, I think he is lying so when I investigate him we will know the truth. If he is lying and his role isn't what he says it is we should evict him. But if it is his role it will be difficult to evict him. We could lose another townie and be in a very risky situation. Kingkitty did the same count I did. If we make a mistake with him we are almost done.
I also think Haly is lying when he said he is a Ordinary Villager. Either Kingkitty or him have a role. Remember that Kalor detected activity within his range during the first night phase. We still don't know why. We know that Mazre is was a Gossip and that he doesn't trigger Kalor's role and RobotNinjaHornet didn't trigger Toma's so one of them is lying.
I'm ready to evict him now without that added convincing so I absolutely disagree that it would be difficult to evict him if that's his role. I believe that's the name of his role and I want him gone.
I don't know about a protection role, but there might be another commuter. If mafia attacks a commuter on the wrong day during the night, then it might increase our breathing room to make mistakes, or as I call it "pulling a Ezekiel".
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