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donny2112 · May 1, 2011

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, May 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 3-30 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: May 12th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[NDS]
[PS3]
[WII]

Code:

Good              Bad
[360] 400K        [360] 400 thousand
[360] 400,000     [360] 400.000
[360] 400000      [360] - 400000

Potential hardware impacting events in April:
Wii psuedo price drop to $169 @ lots of places

March's Results - thanks to Nirolak/Road/Nintendo

Hardware
Nintendo DS - 460k
Xbox 360 - 433K
Nintendo 3DS - 398K
Wii - 290k
PS3 - ~365K (from Nintendo's financial briefing)

Mar-10 -> Apr-10 transition:

Code:

      Mar-10  Apr-10   % change
360     338K    185K   - 45%
NDS     701K    441K   - 37%
PS3     314K    181K   - 42%
WII     558K    277K   - 50%

NPD Prediction Thread Archive

Dedication Through Light · May 1, 2011

How odd to get the PS3 number from Ninty.

[360] 360K
[3DS] 340K
[NDS] 280K
[PS3] 280K
[WII] 260K

that extra 0 for wii was a mistake!

Credo · May 1, 2011

[360] 320k
[3DS] 330k
[NDS] 390k
[PS3] 280k
[WII] 270k

confuziz · May 2, 2011

[360] 340k
[3DS] 320k
[NDS] 310k
[PS3] 240k
[WII] 235k

Megadragon15 · May 2, 2011

[360] 340K
[3DS] 265K
[NDS] 330K
[PS3] 245K
[WII] 250K

Saiyar · May 2, 2011

[360] 275k
[3DS] 400k
[NDS] 300k
[PS3] 225k
[WII] 200k

orion434 · May 2, 2011

[360] 350K
[3DS] 300K
[NDS] 325K
[PS3] 275K
[WII] 225K

Madao · May 2, 2011

[360] 400K
[3DS] 300K
[NDS] 400K
[PS3] 330K
[WII] 340K

onQ123 · May 2, 2011

[360] 390K
[3DS] 270K
[NDS] 390K
[PS3] 370K
[WII] 320K

[PSP]150K

I added the PSP because I think it's going to have a spike in sales this month

(this is my 1st time doing this by the way so I just played eeny meeny miny mo with the numbers)

Jokeropia · May 2, 2011

[360] 275k
[3DS] 380k
[NDS] 280k
[PS3] 230k
[WII] 220k

perfectchaos007 · May 4, 2011

[360] 350K
[3DS] 250K
[NDS] 400K
[PS3] 300K
[WII] 325K

Blitzzz · May 4, 2011

[360] 330K
[3DS] 500K
[NDS] 350K
[PS3] 230K
[WII] 200K

donny2112 · May 5, 2011

[360] 340K
[3DS] 440K
[NDS] 320K
[PS3] 240K
[WII] 325K

It's worth pointing out that the 3DS number in March was for 7 days of sales, and the April value will be for 28 days of sales. I think I'm pretty down on its performance with my prediction, but I'm the second highest predictor for 3DS, right now. :lol

NateDrake · May 5, 2011

[360] 350K
[3DS] 420K
[NDS] 300K
[PS3] 220K
[WII] 265K

Osuwari · May 5, 2011

[360] 330K
[3DS] 300K
[NDS] 340K
[PS3] 270K
[WII] 280K

Goldmund · May 5, 2011

[360] 300,000
[3DS] 318,000
[NDS] 260,000
[PS3] 190,000
[WII] 200,000

Graphics Horse · May 5, 2011

donny2112 said:

Mar-10 -> Apr-10 transition:

Code:

      Mar-10  Apr-10   % change
360     338K    185K   - 45%
NDS     701K    441K   - 37%
PS3     314K    181K   - 42%
WII     558K    277K   - 50%

Woww, is this sort of drop to be expected then?

starsky · May 5, 2011

[360] 375k
[3DS] 270k
[NDS] 350k
[PS3] 300k
[WII] 305k

confuziz · May 6, 2011

donny2112 said:
[360] 320K
[3DS] 450K
[NDS] 290K
[PS3] 240K
[WII] 295K

It's worth pointing out that the 3DS number in March was for 7 days of sales, and the April value will be for 28 days of sales. I think I'm pretty down on its performance with my prediction, but I'm the second highest predictor for 3DS, right now. :lol

yea...I'm not doing any dangerous 3DS predictions anymore =P

Aad · May 6, 2011

[360] 375,000
[3DS] 420,000
[NDS] 380,000
[PS3] 300,000
[WII] 330,000

Dedication Through Light · May 6, 2011

I thought people would side with caution with <400K predictions for the 3DS.

Hammer24 · May 6, 2011

[3DS] 375K
[360] 335K
[NDS] 305K
[WII] 295K
[PS3] 245K

andy_lhc · May 7, 2011

[360] 330K
[3DS] 350K
[NDS] 380K
[PS3] 290K
[WII] 300K

BLaZiN PRopHeT · May 7, 2011

360] 340k
[3DS] 380k
[NDS] 350k
[PS3] 270k
[WII] 265k

DarkestLight · May 7, 2011

[360] 290K
[3DS] 320K
[NDS] 330K
[PS3] 240K
[WII] 220K

Orgen · May 7, 2011

[360] 311K
[3DS] 412K
[NDS] 366K
[PS3] 247K
[WII] 268K

archnemesis · May 7, 2011

[360] 295k
[3DS] 410k
[NDS] 285k
[PS3] 230k
[WII] 250k

SuperBanjo · May 8, 2011

[360] 350K
[3DS] 270K
[NDS] 300K
[PS3] 260K
[WII] 250K

DR2K · May 8, 2011

[360] 450k
[3DS] 270k
[NDS] 410k
[PS3] 260k
[WII] 250k

Hiro_Kunimi_80 · May 8, 2011

[360] 325K
[3DS] 230k
[NDS] 260k
[PS3] 260k
[WII] 210k

Rekwest · May 8, 2011

[360] 340k
[3DS] 320k
[NDS] 350k
[PS3] 240k
[WII] 235k

mug · May 8, 2011

[360] 320k
[3DS] 300k
[NDS] 330k
[PS3] 220k
[WII] 200k

scottnak · May 8, 2011

[360] 305k
[3DS] 414k
[NDS] 300k
[PS3] 208k
[WII] 260k

botticus · May 8, 2011

[NDS] 350k
[360] 325k
[3DS] 400k
[WII] 275k
[PS3] 250k

dvolovets · May 8, 2011

[360] 400K
[3DS] 500K
[NDS] 350K
[PS3] 220K
[WII] 250K

Zero-Crescent · May 8, 2011

[360] 260K
[3DS] 350K
[NDS] 300K
[PS3] 210K
[WII] 185K

Yeah, I'm not seeing very many indicators that April's going to be a bigger month than past years.

jvm · May 9, 2011

[360] 340K
[3DS] 300K
[NDS] 390K
[PS3] 275K
[WII] 250K

Every year we discuss the effect of Easter on sales. Analysts often cite it. The only system I can see really getting an Easter bump is the NDS ... maybe the Wii, but not sure it's priced low enough. And if the stock of the cheaper NDS units is low, then it becomes a question of whether people will pay for the higher-end units. Then again, software should be the big beneficiary of Easter, so perhaps hardware isn't really the place to look... Thoughts?

antonz · May 9, 2011

[360] 390K
[3DS] 400K
[NDS] 430K
[PS3] 350K
[WII] 300K

Kafel · May 9, 2011

So who bets on the 3DS having big difficulties?

I don't know about the US but reports I had from Europe said that the first week's sales were amazing and then the next ones were awful.

antonz · May 9, 2011

Kafel said:
So who bets on the 3DS having big difficulties?

I don't know about the US but reports I had from Europe said that the first week's sales were amazing and then the next ones were awful.

Analysts are saying its pulling in between 80-100K a week in the US. How accurate that is who knows

Graphics Horse · May 9, 2011

[360] 361k
[3DS] 280k
[NDS] 342k
[PS3] 262k
[WII] 263k

jvm said:
Thoughts?

I still want to know what caused the huge dropoff last April shown in the OP. Or was that because in 2010 Easter happened to be very early April? (Apparently that NPD started on Easter Sunday)

doicare · May 9, 2011

[360] 310k
[3DS] 260k
[NDS] 280k
[PS3] 235k
[WII] 215k

Averon · May 9, 2011

[360] 390k
[3DS] 275k
[NDS] 250k
[PS3] 320k
[WII] 260k

jvm · May 9, 2011

Graphics Horse said:
I still want to know what caused the huge dropoff last April shown in the OP. Or was that because in 2010 Easter happened to be very early April? (Apparently that NPD started on Easter Sunday)

That means all the (non-clearance) Easter shopping happened in the March period.

Ydahs · May 9, 2011

[360] 386k
[3DS] 390k
[NDS] 400k
[PS3] 280k
[WII] 260k

NeoUltima · May 9, 2011

[360] 250k
[3DS] 430k
[NDS] 305k
[PS3] 215k
[WII] 175k

Pooya · May 9, 2011

[360] 335k
[3DS] 320k
[NDS] 350k
[PS3] 275k
[WII] 275k

pitseleh · May 9, 2011

[360] 310k
[3DS] 350k
[NDS] 320k
[PS3] 260k
[WII] 280k

kefka2030 · May 9, 2011

[360] 362k
[3DS] 425k
[NDS] 410k
[PS3] 305k
[WII] 259k

Dedication Through Light · May 9, 2011

Kafel said:
So who bets on the 3DS having big difficulties?

I don't know about the US but reports I had from Europe said that the first week's sales were amazing and then the next ones were awful.

If its truly getting 80-100k sales a week here, then I dont see a difficulty. Essentially 1 month to a million sales.

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