April 2011 NPD Predictions - closes May 9

Dedication Through Light said:
Wow, if 3DS only sold 200K in April...ouch, via Mr Pachter.
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His Portal 2 numbers seem way too high.
His Mortal Kombat numbers seem way too low.
Hardware numbers appear reasonable.
 
Dedication Through Light said:
Wow, if 3DS only sold 200K in April...ouch, via Mr Pachter.
Click to expand...

I'd be really, really surprised if Portal outsold Mortal Kombat, let alone outsold it 5:1 at retail. Especially with PSN being down.

I'd predict something closer to 1.2 million for MK, 900k for Portal 2.

3DS numbers wouldn't surprise me, numbers will be sluggish until some of the heavy hitters come out this summer. Hope Nintendo takes this into account when pricing (and making projections for) Project Cafe, pricey hardware is never going to come flying out of the gate in the slow launch period.
 
Sho_Nuff82 said:
I'd be really, really surprised if Portal outsold Mortal Kombat, let alone outsold it 5:1 at retail. Especially with PSN being down.

I'd predict something closer to 1.2 million for MK, 900k for Portal 2.

3DS numbers wouldn't surprise me, numbers will be sluggish until some of the heavy hitters come out this summer. Hope Nintendo takes this into account when pricing (and making projections for) Project Cafe, pricey hardware is never going to come flying out of the gate in the slow launch period.
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I got a feeling they'll still be pretty high around 300k (even tho I only posted 190k) every month until those heavy games start coming and then it'll rise up big time... or not. I don't even know with this thing

Didn't expect big MK numbers, certainly not that big. That's only good news of course! Commercial was pretty decent marketing too apart from some of the music
 
Dedication Through Light said:
Wow, if 3DS only sold 200K in April...ouch, via Mr Pachter.
Click to expand...

Well, I think people are smoking some serious weed in this thread. Why are people expecting such good sales? I don't care if it was only one week last month, those are the easiest sales you'll ever get in a console life. The hardcore who want the new hardware. The fact there was unlimited supply and it was demand that was weak means no demand carryover and April is not going to be better than March. If those people really wanted the 3DS that badly, March numbers would have been much higher. 200,000 would be fairly good in light of that. I was expecting more along 150,000.
 
Whoops. For some reason I had down that these closed on the 11th, not 9th. Arg. That tosses my year, so I'll try the predictions thing next year. Had a great Q1! :lol
 
GhaleonEB said:
Whoops. For some reason I had down that these closed on the 11th, not 9th. Arg. That tosses my year, so I'll try the predictions thing next year. Had a great Q1! :lol
Click to expand...

Remember, the top 10 months count for the year, so you can miss two (or just totally blow two) and still be fine. We're at n-1, currently. We'll switch to n-2 in September.

Dedication Through Light said:
that extra 0 was a mistake!!! please!
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Was coming to post about that. Usually if someone posts an out-there number, but it's marginal (i.e. someone predicting 2000K for 3DS last month or something), I'll stick with the out-there number. In a case like this where there's not basis for such an out-there number and the poster's not doing an obvious joke prediction, I usually go with what I figure they meant to post, so it'll be 260K for Wii for the month.

Will post aggregates shortly. :)

Edit:

April 2011 NPD NeoGAF Predictions

GAF Aggregate

1. 360 - 337K
2. 3DS - 336K
3. NDS - 333K
4. PS3 - 258K
5. WII - 257K

GAF_spec

1. 360 - 323K
2. NDS - 319K
3. 3DS - 309K
4. PS3 - 249K
5. WII - 230K
 
I'll try to post more reminders next month, since a number of regulars were either a bit late or forgot. Remember that the annual results will just be the Top 10 months that you have for the year, so missing a month doesn't mess up your annual total. :)

I was apparently quite high on the month based on the other predictions, so this might be one of my throwaways, too.
:lol
 
I'm starting to wonder if this old gem will need to be adjusted for the Wii soon.

2vnqt8w.gif
 
BMF said:
I'm starting to wonder if this old gem will need to be adjusted for the Wii soon.

http://i186.photobucket.com/albums/x160/bmfrosty/gaf/2vnqt8w.gif[IMG][/QUOTE]

I don't understand the low predictions for the Wii, myself. There was a cross-chain price cut to $170 in April. Granted, it was unadvertised, but that's got to do something. For May, Wal-Mart's already at $149 with others going there next week, so no worries about 100K in the U.S. anytime soon. Will be interesting if Anita Frazier comments on the performance of the Nintendo Select line for next month's NPD. Hoping a [b]good[/b] budget line will actually do something on Wii for the late-gen buyer.
Click to expand...
 
donny2112 said:
I'll try to post more reminders next month, since a number of regulars were either a bit late or forgot. Remember that the annual results will just be the Top 10 months that you have for the year, so missing a month doesn't mess up your annual total. :)

I was apparently quite high on the month based on the other predictions, so this might be one of my throwaways, too.
:lol
Click to expand...

Is there any reminder like "donny2112 posted a new thread" to my inbox? :p
 
majornelson Larry Hryb

Just saw some April NPD Data. Xbox continues to be the best selling console of 2011


aarongreenberg Aaron Greenberg
#NPD just released April sales & Xbox 360 continues to be best selling console of 2011 up 60% over last year
Click to expand...

hopefully have some numbers soon


would 60% make 296k this month for 360?
 
siyrobbo said:
would 60% make 296k this month for 360?
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Approximately. I'm sure that 60% was rounded up or down from a number in that ballpark but it seems clear X360 is flirting with 300K and everything else (console-wise) is below.
 
Pachter: An up month (and up a lot) for NPD. 'Bout time. Good games make a difference.

From Greenberg: 54 million Xbox 360 consoles sold now world wide
 
PS3 has been seeing "double digit growth," Sony says. Patrick Seybold, spokesman for SCEA, issued the following statement in reaction to today's NPD data report.

"NPD reported that the PlayStation 3 continues to see double-digit hardware growth. PS3 hardware sales are up nearly 13% and our PS3 software sales showed a 40% increase year-over-year. We continue to see a lot of great momentum at the retail level, and appreciate the support we've received from our partners, retailers and customers since the criminal attack on the PlayStation Network. We hope to have services restored as soon as we can."
Click to expand...

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/ps3-sales-up-13-in-april-despite-psn-breach/
 
Patrick Seybold said:
"NPD reported that the PlayStation 3 continues to see double-digit hardware growth. PS3 hardware sales are up nearly 13% and our PS3 software sales showed a 40% increase year-over-year. We continue to see a lot of great momentum at the retail level, and appreciate the support we've received from our partners, retailers and customers since the criminal attack on the PlayStation Network. We hope to have services restored as soon as we can."
Click to expand...

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/ps3-sales-up-13-in-april-despite-psn-breach/

nearly %13 => 204.5k
 
allan-bh said:
Up 60% is over april/10?
Or is over jan-apr 2010?
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That's a good point. I'm inclined to think it's 60% over April 2010 as 60% up for the year would lead to an unrealistically high X360 sales number, IMO.
 
Frillen said:
The whole PSN breach was only known for a few days in April though wasn't it?
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Not long enough to affect sales I wouldnt think. I would think being 100k behind the 360 would not be so good for Sony, but at least they were up. The real test will be next month where the outage should affect things if it is going to.
 
Frillen said:
The whole PSN breach was only known for a few days in April though wasn't it?
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Since the 20th.

And with those $100 off coupons going out, that'll probably help to some extent.
 
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