Well, the idea was to discuss it before anyone ACTUALLY unvolunteered. Now I'm not really sure what to do. I'm alright with Darryl being on the mission because I'm pretty sure he's not the honeypot, but it's tough to say what other reasons he might have. A mafia watching the chat doesn't really matter this time cause ER has already claimed, and i doubt anyone else would be foolish enough to until we've verified ER somehow. It's basically going to be another chat room again.
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Archer [Mafia] |OT| Wait, I Had Something For This
- Thread starter Ourobolus
- Start date
Well, the idea was to discuss it before anyone ACTUALLY unvolunteered. Now I'm not really sure what to do. I'm alright with Darryl being on the mission because I'm pretty sure he's not the honeypot, but it's tough to say what other reasons he might have. A mafia watching the chat doesn't really matter this time cause ER has already claimed, and i doubt anyone else would be foolish enough to until we've verified ER somehow. It's basically going to be another chat room again.
Current votes:
El Topo (2)
Palmer_v1
Palmer_v1
YesNOnoNOYes
Seath (3)
roytheone
YesNOnoNOYes
Mazre
Seath
Palmer_v1
EzekelRAGE
Haly
Darryl
cabbeh
TheAwesomePossum
Burbeting
Hobohodo
cooljeanius (1)
Haly
cabbeh
Haly
Darryl (3)
QuantumBro
roytheone
TheGoddamn
TheAwesomePossum
squidyj (4)
Zubz
Septimus Prime
Seath
El Topo
Septimus Prime (3)
cabbeh
squidyj
Darryl
Mike_Hawk689 (0)
YesNOnoNOYes
Zubz (0)
Darryl
VOLUNTEERS
EzekelRAGE
Mazre
Palmer_v1
Darryl
Day 2 ends at:
El Topo (2)
Palmer_v1
YesNOnoNOYes
Seath (3)
Mazre
Burbeting
Hobohodo
cooljeanius (1)
Haly
Darryl (3)
roytheone
TheGoddamn
TheAwesomePossum
squidyj (4)
Zubz
Septimus Prime
Seath
El Topo
Septimus Prime (3)
cabbeh
squidyj
Darryl
Mike_Hawk689 (0)
Zubz (0)
VOLUNTEERS
EzekelRAGE
Mazre
Palmer_v1
Darryl
Day 2 ends at:
i'm running out of gin
You're still not getting that cost of living adjustment
Alright, I've been slacking, killing a doctor really took the wind out of my sails but now I'm all jacked up on shark testosterone and I'm ready to go.
I want to know what the fuck is going on here. Like here specifically, seath hasn't come out and said anything about this shit. This is exactly the thing seath was trying to trap me for (so ineptly) and it just blows right by. Also the fact that Topo can argue that there's no reason to lynch seath shows he's A. not paying attention to the thread where the arguments for getting rid of Seath have been made and B. not thinking too hard about the subject.
Then we have the last thing he says in this post. So we can assume that Topo is going to be suspicious of people who fly under the radar and don't draw attention to themselves, yknow, people who maybe don't hard push a lynch on a doctor day 1, people who are maybe not top-voted people of the day getting all sorts of attention from seath and other members of the scum community.
So at least he's consistent in his argumentation here but IN WHAT FUCKING WAY AM I SLIPPING THROUGH THE CRACKS?
It gets worse when you consider this dude's absolutely fucking woeful response to YNNY's questioning about shit he was talking about on day 1. Two day phases and he had three names with little blurbs next to them. fuck off with that bullshit m8. It reads to me like you're setting up your 'suspicion' of me.
And then he goes on to suggest that he doesn't think I'm a real suspect because, well.... look who he says the only real suspects are. I clearly don't fit that category but hey. who gives a fuck?
It just reads like he realized he needed to set up a flimsy excuse to be able to bandwagon on the squidyj lynch train but he's inconsistent in his own viewpoint and his arguments are inconsistent with reality.
I want to know what the fuck is going on here. Like here specifically, seath hasn't come out and said anything about this shit. This is exactly the thing seath was trying to trap me for (so ineptly) and it just blows right by. Also the fact that Topo can argue that there's no reason to lynch seath shows he's A. not paying attention to the thread where the arguments for getting rid of Seath have been made and B. not thinking too hard about the subject.
Then we have the last thing he says in this post. So we can assume that Topo is going to be suspicious of people who fly under the radar and don't draw attention to themselves, yknow, people who maybe don't hard push a lynch on a doctor day 1, people who are maybe not top-voted people of the day getting all sorts of attention from seath and other members of the scum community.
So at least he's consistent in his argumentation here but IN WHAT FUCKING WAY AM I SLIPPING THROUGH THE CRACKS?
It gets worse when you consider this dude's absolutely fucking woeful response to YNNY's questioning about shit he was talking about on day 1. Two day phases and he had three names with little blurbs next to them. fuck off with that bullshit m8. It reads to me like you're setting up your 'suspicion' of me.
And then he goes on to suggest that he doesn't think I'm a real suspect because, well.... look who he says the only real suspects are. I clearly don't fit that category but hey. who gives a fuck?
It just reads like he realized he needed to set up a flimsy excuse to be able to bandwagon on the squidyj lynch train but he's inconsistent in his own viewpoint and his arguments are inconsistent with reality.
Everyone who has voted for me is scum, scum-leaning, or MAYBE neutral to me. This is not a tit for tat thing, but rather a thing where none of the arguments are compelling, many of them hinge on me leading the vote on day1, and the rest is nonsensical.
[m] TheGoddamn
???
[m] roytheone
Just generally solid logic and reads, hes been helpful all game, his output hasnt been lacking, hes pretty townie to me.
[m] Arkos
I already made clear why I read him and Cabbeh as town
[m] cooljeanius
where is this dude? seriously? after barely skating by yesterday now hes not giving us anything. Oh wait, he whined about how all the big bad players made him cast votes where he didnt want to. Poor cooljeanius, so abused
[m] Septimus Prime
This guy has weird inconsistencies between day one and day 2 and in spite of seeming like a stronger player now hes still going after me on the basis of fuck all. Then he says he wants to not reveal his reads to town.
[m] Burbeting
Good guy townie, not much more to say about him, contributes, good logic.
[ - ] Darryl
Darryl has been good since getting here, greatlord earlier was scummy but darryl isnt really
[m] cabbeh
town like arkos
[m] Mike_Hawk689
The only motherfucker who had a decent observation about me that could be read as negative, and he hasnt even voted for me yet.
[m] Enker
where is this guy?
[m] El Topo
Didnt want to read posts or engage with the game in a meaningful way on day 1, now he defends seath in a way that I didnt that was more in line with seaths gotcha idea. Hes making big quote-laden posts without saying much of anything, giving fluff responses but the look of a hefty rebuttal. all style no substance.
[m] EzekelRAGE
Probably Archer, needs to step up his contributions though.
[ f ] YesNOnoNOYes
shes
[m] Zubz
[m] Quantumbro
[m] Palmer_v1
[m] Seath
Seath didnt really do much day 1 and didnt stand out to me, but then day 2 he claims to be conway stern for like 5 minutes before engaging in one of the worst gotchas in the history of mafia. I think hes probably neutral because I dont think either town or mafia would engage in something that dumb.
He also has a bad history of bandwagoning on votes but Im not quite convinced that he is mafia. Is this dude huffing paint?
Why did he suggest that mafia knew who archer was from the start of the game?
[m] Hobohodo
Still sort of neutralish, leaning town.
[m] Mazre
Havent really thought about this guy much at all, thats a bit of a problem
[m] Haly
I get the sense that he hasnt been as active in day 2 as day 1.
[m] squidyj
thats me!
[m] TheAwesomePossum
I found my day 1 interactions with Razmos to be confusing as he was quite defensive. The replacement thing leads me to believe he was perhaps genuinely upset, genuinely limited in time and not play-acting to be like Darryl from last game. So I think probably town? Since Possum has come in he hasnt been scummy either
Town Circle
Arkos
Cabbeh
AwesomePossum
EzekalRage
QuantumBro
Burbeting
Roytheone
Yesnononoyes (fuck your capitalization)
Myself (of course)
Top Scum
Zubz
El Topo
Seath
Septimus Prime
CoolJeanius
.
Enker?
[m] TheGoddamn
???
[m] roytheone
Just generally solid logic and reads, hes been helpful all game, his output hasnt been lacking, hes pretty townie to me.
[m] Arkos
I already made clear why I read him and Cabbeh as town
[m] cooljeanius
where is this dude? seriously? after barely skating by yesterday now hes not giving us anything. Oh wait, he whined about how all the big bad players made him cast votes where he didnt want to. Poor cooljeanius, so abused
[m] Septimus Prime
This guy has weird inconsistencies between day one and day 2 and in spite of seeming like a stronger player now hes still going after me on the basis of fuck all. Then he says he wants to not reveal his reads to town.
[m] Burbeting
Good guy townie, not much more to say about him, contributes, good logic.
[ - ] Darryl
Darryl has been good since getting here, greatlord earlier was scummy but darryl isnt really
[m] cabbeh
town like arkos
[m] Mike_Hawk689
The only motherfucker who had a decent observation about me that could be read as negative, and he hasnt even voted for me yet.
[m] Enker
where is this guy?
[m] El Topo
Didnt want to read posts or engage with the game in a meaningful way on day 1, now he defends seath in a way that I didnt that was more in line with seaths gotcha idea. Hes making big quote-laden posts without saying much of anything, giving fluff responses but the look of a hefty rebuttal. all style no substance.
[m] EzekelRAGE
Probably Archer, needs to step up his contributions though.
[ f ] YesNOnoNOYes
shes
[m] Zubz
[m] Quantumbro
[m] Palmer_v1
[m] Seath
Seath didnt really do much day 1 and didnt stand out to me, but then day 2 he claims to be conway stern for like 5 minutes before engaging in one of the worst gotchas in the history of mafia. I think hes probably neutral because I dont think either town or mafia would engage in something that dumb.
He also has a bad history of bandwagoning on votes but Im not quite convinced that he is mafia. Is this dude huffing paint?
Why did he suggest that mafia knew who archer was from the start of the game?
[m] Hobohodo
Still sort of neutralish, leaning town.
[m] Mazre
Havent really thought about this guy much at all, thats a bit of a problem
[m] Haly
I get the sense that he hasnt been as active in day 2 as day 1.
[m] squidyj
thats me!
[m] TheAwesomePossum
I found my day 1 interactions with Razmos to be confusing as he was quite defensive. The replacement thing leads me to believe he was perhaps genuinely upset, genuinely limited in time and not play-acting to be like Darryl from last game. So I think probably town? Since Possum has come in he hasnt been scummy either
Town Circle
Arkos
Cabbeh
AwesomePossum
EzekalRage
QuantumBro
Burbeting
Roytheone
Yesnononoyes (fuck your capitalization)
Myself (of course)
Top Scum
Zubz
El Topo
Seath
Septimus Prime
CoolJeanius
.
Enker?
I'm glad staring at the monitor at some of Topo's posts for a few minutes doesn't seem to be a unique reaction on my end.
Also, add a new Ezekel name error, EzekalRAGE!!!!
If anything he should moderate an Orphan Black-themed game of mafia where every role is a variation/typo of his namesake.
Also, add a new Ezekel name error, EzekalRAGE!!!!
If anything he should moderate an Orphan Black-themed game of mafia where every role is a variation/typo of his namesake.
Enker did post very early this morning, I quoted the filthy slanga. I'll do it again for you fine gentlemen.
No, I don't see a reason to lynch him because I am convinced he is neutral. I don't see the point of lynching a neutral player, when we don't know his goals or abilities, especially if Palmer is right and there really is no neutral killer.
I'm one of the most active players. I have made it pretty damn clear what I think of lynching (and posting) on the first day. I think I was among the first to vote for anyone and when I was writing my vote for GLT he was still far ahead of the rest, something which Palmer (and cabbeh) have also ignored in their attempt to get me lynched. Not that those two ever bothered to admit their errors, cabbeh just basically posted "Well, I disagree and stand by my theory, even though I wrote bullshit, but won't defend it or explain myself".
First I'm accused of jumping on the bandwagon by voting for GLT, now I'm accused for not jumping on the bandwagon by voting for Visualante2. I'm sorry, what?
Woeful response? I've repeatedly explained what I think of posts on the first day. I've taken a great effort to explain and defend myself, whereas those that accused me decided to move on. I even stepped down from the mission when I was told that me volunteering was suspicious.
I also don't get (at all) why you think I was setting my suspicion on you. I was asked to give names of who I suspect and I gave them. I also made it quite clear, that my suspicion of you was not based on some weird interpretation or tangible evidence, but (again) gut feeling. Unlike others I have been as honest and forthcoming as possible. I don't come up with bullshit theories like others, who subsequently don't defend them. I made it clear that I don't think there is much to work with, that I trust (to some extent) those that have role claimed, thus there is virtually nothing tangible to work with.
I have explained that there is only a limited amount of players who technically deserve suspicion. While some blame the death of Visualante2 on you, in which case you would certainly be a "real" suspect, I blame that death on all of us, unlike other players, that pretend that it was just bad luck.
Thus, I don't consider you as someone with noteworthy evidence against you. Do you want me to do it like Palmer and spread mistrust and suspicion, using huge walls of pointless text, only to never explain myself afterwards?
What kind of bandwagon? Just because you have some votes doesn't mean there's a bandwagon to jump on. I voted for you, because I said you were suspicious and several players (most notably Palmer and cabbeh) have made it very clear, that not voting is apparently a sign of evil.
Unlike certain players I have also made it clear that this is my personal decision, not some bullshit theory to convince others. I admit though that it would be unfair to vote for you without doing a thorough search, which I will begin now - instead of enjoying Netflix after several hours on a train - and I will attempt to give an honest analysis within the next two hours.
For the record though, I don't give a shit about the first day, so unless one of your posts is "I am mafia" or "I will kill all of you" I will ignore that.
Oh, whoops. I must have glossed over it. Thanks.
I don't remember saying not voting was evil, I remember saying you bumbling about in the middle of a Day 1 vote mess was suspicious.
So there's twisting my words.
Your reasons were guff. Your points basically came to "Well Day 1 is useless but.... and some people might view this.... and its only soft evidence..."
How can you say Day 1 is useless then talk about how others act on it, then follow up with saying it can be used as soft evidence with further evidence from later events?
It's either useless or it isn't.
I've changed my mind, accusing me of bullshit the third time was the red button event.
VOTE: El Topo
you or Septimus would be fine with me today.
So there's twisting my words.
Your reasons were guff. Your points basically came to "Well Day 1 is useless but.... and some people might view this.... and its only soft evidence..."
How can you say Day 1 is useless then talk about how others act on it, then follow up with saying it can be used as soft evidence with further evidence from later events?
It's either useless or it isn't.
I've changed my mind, accusing me of bullshit the third time was the red button event.
VOTE: El Topo
you or Septimus would be fine with me today.
I made it very clear, that there are players that are generally suspicious based on more than just random posts, those players are e.g. those that role claimed or those that volunteered twice. I said however that I have reason to believe those that claimed a role (to some extent), that Palmer seems too active for mafia (despite his bullshit) and that I had nothing on Mazre.
Then there is you, who I simply found suspicious because so far you flew under my radar. I thought I made it very clear that was my feeling, not some "He's mafia, see post xyz" theory. I don't see how that concept is difficult to understand. I have also said that I would go through your posts to see if my suspicion was justified, because voting on you just because of that feeling (at the end of the day) would not be fair.
I find it honestly unfair how everything I do is thrown against me.
you're taking the piss now right? this is literally what the game of mafia is.
So this is the kind of post that when left till late in the day gives no time to react, so let's do it now.
Vote: El Topo
So honestly I'd be happier getting Seath gone today, and the change in post quality seen in Septimus is setting off all sorts of alarm bells but ultimately Squidy is still reading as a useful town to me and I feel voting him out is a big mistake. Sure I haven't agreed with all his ideas (Razmos in particular) but that hasn't stopped me reading him as town. El Topo's shadyness has been well pointed out already, this also tips him into the lead so it's a win win.
Still not over Zubz mind. He really wants to avoid accepting his late day shenanigans with voting yesterday was like voting visualnte by proxy.
Vote: El Topo
So honestly I'd be happier getting Seath gone today, and the change in post quality seen in Septimus is setting off all sorts of alarm bells but ultimately Squidy is still reading as a useful town to me and I feel voting him out is a big mistake. Sure I haven't agreed with all his ideas (Razmos in particular) but that hasn't stopped me reading him as town. El Topo's shadyness has been well pointed out already, this also tips him into the lead so it's a win win.
Still not over Zubz mind. He really wants to avoid accepting his late day shenanigans with voting yesterday was like voting visualnte by proxy.
I have been called out explicitly twice for not voting:
YNNNY, YNNNY.
Palmer has also several times called us all to vote. That said, I misremembered things. Seems you didn't call me out for not voting, you called me out for asking on who I should vote for on the first day. Shit happens when you get accused the entire day by several players, not one of them ever bothering to defend their accusations.
I was accused for both Day 1 and Day 2 posts. I went through every accusation and explained myself, showing that despite what Palmer claimed or thought, I was not inconsistent, nor suspicious. I was accused because I had volunteered, so later I explained myself and later unvolunteered.
I was accused that my posts had not helped us find mafia, when absolutely no one had helped us find mafia yet. I was accused of not saying who I found suspicious, so I later presented a list and admitted that there was (in my opinion) no legitimate suspect (for me). I explained my stance on lynching neutrals, I admitted errors in analysis (regarding Honeypot and misremembering that Ezzi had been on a mission), I explained why I trusted Seath (to some extent).
I find your summary unfair and I think, given the effort I have put into explaining myself, that it is legitimate of me to criticize that my accusators have not responded to my defense properly, nor have they applied the same criteria to themselves. It is not a proper investigation, but crafting a narrative that fits an existing suspicion, which I have repeatedly said I think is not helpful.
In that light, while criticizing you, Palmer and YNNNY (and to some extent squidyj), I have made it very clear that I will not apply the faulty criteria on you.
I have explained that several times. It is utterly useless by itself. I'm sure if you CTRL+F "useless" you will find posts of me explaining that posts on the first day are not evidence by themselves.
Let's assume you have found out that player XYZ did something during the night. That is tangible evidence, but that alone is not enough, the player could be town after all. In that case, you might look at what the player did (even on the first day) to see whether there is any indication that he is mafia. Did he maybe purposely avoid players already revealed as mafia? When did he vote? Did he lead the charge on someone?
All that is utterly useless by itself, but combined with other evidence it can become useful, although for the record, I think the meta-data from the first day (when did someone post, who did he refer to, when did he vote, who did he vote for) is more valuable than the actual posts. Again, useless if you don't actually know more (e.g. certain mafia members).
I'm sorry, but I think it is completely legitimate of me to criticize that my accusators have not done an actual investigation, but (see e.g. Palmer's original post on how he suspected me even on Day 1) phrased a narrative that supports their suspicion. I consider the accusations thrown at me false, yet you guys have completely ignored my explanations.
You have accused me several times, yet not once have you taken apart my defense or proven me wrong. I think it is only fair that I criticize that, especially since I have nonetheless explained that I do not consider either of you (Palmer/cabbeh) mafia.
I honestly feel that this is a "Damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation for me. You have decided that I am suspicous, so anything I do is interpreted in a way that makes me look bad, even though I have done all I can to explain myself.
I invest a lot of time to defend myself, then someone comes along and basically posts "Yeah, I think that is bullshit", calls me suspicious and later votes for me. I get called shady, I explain myself, but get no proper response. I'm sorry, but I don't consider that efficient (nor fair) play.
It is one thing to investigate posts, analyze them and then come to a conclusion. It is another to have a suspicion, then frame everything in a way that makes it seem vaguely suspicious.
Again, I have explained my behaviour thoroughly. I honestly don't get how someone could call me suspicious based on that.
PS
lease don't expect an analysis of your posts within the next hour, given that I've already spent an hour defending myself (again). I'm honestly not in the mood for that stuff right now, given that even typing this I see another player has decided I am suspicious because of reasons.Septimus Prime
Member
Can someone give me a brief rundown of why cabbeh and Arkos are accepted Agency? Thanks in advance!
They made a post heavily hinting/outright saying part of the role for standard town prior to Ouro posting an example role. Unless Mafia or a Neutral role got accsess to the name in there role PM then cabbeh and Arkos are legit.
Evening all.
Re El Topo: I'm not personally feeling the KGB vibe but I don't have strong objections to the arguments being presented either. The one thing I will say is that ET may be the victim of an aggressive playerbase coupled with the underdamped nature of the early going of a mafia game. Even small things that seem off can seem to be a big deal at this stage, mix in a little back and forth and the effect can compound quickly.
That said if it came down to ET vs squidyj as it seems to stand my current inclination would be to vote ET and keep squidyj.
Re El Topo: I'm not personally feeling the KGB vibe but I don't have strong objections to the arguments being presented either. The one thing I will say is that ET may be the victim of an aggressive playerbase coupled with the underdamped nature of the early going of a mafia game. Even small things that seem off can seem to be a big deal at this stage, mix in a little back and forth and the effect can compound quickly.
That said if it came down to ET vs squidyj as it seems to stand my current inclination would be to vote ET and keep squidyj.
I'd wager that 0 or 1 mafia are currently voting for you (based on time of your posting). I'd be more suspicious of anyone who has voiced concerns but stopped short of voting (more so again without another stated vote for someone else), but again probably only 1 person in said group would be KGB (haven't gone back to examine this closely yet). Open collusion is in general dangerous for KGB, though as with everything in this game sometimes the worst strategy is the best strategy. (Or is it the other way around? Maybe both)
Re Me: If it makes you feel any better several people have voiced strong suspicion of me during this phase though none of these suspicions have presently resulted in any votes.
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
Morning gang
More posts today than yesterday I see I'll go through them now ! We're really counting down towards the final 24 hours prior to end of D2 so let's really get cracking today!
PS: El Topo, I am so sorry I left you hanging. I am on the evil Australian time zone and I went to sleep after I responded to you last night.
OKIES. Be right back with more words soon! o7
More posts today than yesterday I see
I'll go through them now ! We're really counting down towards the final 24 hours prior to end of D2 so let's really get cracking today! PS: El Topo, I am so sorry I left you hanging. I am on the evil Australian time zone and I went to sleep after I responded to you last night.
OKIES. Be right back with more words soon! o7
Okay, I read through the last five pages or so that have come here in my absense. Since I went through post-by-post some of this might be bit incoherent to read, sorry for it. I do have a section about ElTopo around the middle of this post. Heres some of my thoughts:
General stuff post-by-post part.1:
El Topos list of post count is kind of wasted in the long-run, since post-count does not really tell you much apart from seeing who people post awful lot and who almost nothing. Just posting postcount is especially problematic since it completely ignores all fluffy-filler posts or posts that are basically just one sentence long. More important is to look at how many posts are actually contributive, and even then you have to remember people have lives outside of the game. So yeah post-lists can be informative, but one shouldnt post only that, I guess.
I agree Mazre with this, and is one of the reasons why I think Palmers drone claims are more anti-town than pro-town in my eyes.
This is actually a pretty valid point. Like I said in Palmers case, it would be convenient for mafia to figure out reasons why they dont die during nights, the same thing I feel Palmer could use his claims for. Also another thing that came to mind just now for Ezekiel to make this claim was in order to make possible roleblocker to keep silent. Since, you know, if Ezekiels claim is not real, its possible that the kill was prevented by the blocker blocking the right scum-member.
That said, I still stand that I will believe Ezekiel, just because claiming Archer would be really dangerous since there would most likely be another archer here who could bust him.
Also, is ynnys (too long of a username!) posts always this filled with emoticons? It could be a scums way to try to look bit more innocent with the use of emoticons. I havent read his earlier game (AC according to ynny himself, right), so I dont have sufficient data to see if this style is consistent with that game.
For me its important to look at claims in detail, since with secret role-list a false claim could be very viable strategy. My suspicion for Ezekiels claim was mostly because I first thought that honeypot was a neutral party, which would have made her finding Archer much harder. Since its possible she might be kgb, Ezekiels claim is much more believable, since other mafia can make a guess they found Archer if no kill happens during night.
Mostly about ElTopo:
Now Palmers post-by-post analysis of El Topo is much more what I think is contributive than simply posting list of how much everyone has posted. I agree with some points Palmer makes, like how lot of El Topo himselfs are fluffy, although I do disagree with some as well too. For example I do agree with El Topo that people should believe real-world claims because lying about that is really stupid thing to do. But in general, great work Palmer! It has given lot of insight to El Topos posting.
ElTopo does response to this analysis and is it me, or is he suddenly really defensive like Razmos was in day 1? It could be that he is just generally annoyed, but usually losing your cool over accusations is mafia-type of behaviour since mafia-members have much more to lose by dying that town has in general. ElTopos answers have turned much more aggressive in course of this day. For example this post:
I still think it would be better if you told out loud your suspicions. Its pro-town behaviour to tell about suspicions, now this just sounds like Yeah I dont trust these guys but I aint telling why, which is not really helping us to discuss. Sulking like this almost feels like martyrism to me, which is anti-town behaviour in general.
I also agree with other people that its odd ElTopo said day 1 is useless, especially since this game has had lot of stuff happening in day 1 that could have an impact later on.
General stuff post-by-post part 2:
Id say three completely new people would be better, since there is the chance that honeypot was in the night 1 chat still. And yeah, Id say three-person chat would be better than two-person, since with three there wouldnt be that he-sais she-said situation you note.
---
Then Darryls volunteering comes, bit out of left field as well.
I disagree with Darryl being honeypot. It seems way way too obvious, and if Ezekiel dies next night, it would directly cast the spotlights on Darryl then. On the other notes the volunteering does make me raise my eyebrows, especially since I just said that three new missioners might be better than an older one over there. And now at the point Darryll volunteered, there was 50% of old already.
About Darryll volunteering: I still think honeypot isnt third party just because in my eyes that would make Ezekiels power unbalanced, and I trust Ourobolos that he has spent time making sure that the game stays balanced. If honeypot is KGB and doesnt have seperate win-condition at that, he wouldnt kill Ezekiel this early in the game with this huge amount of players outside the night-chat. It would make finding one of KGB really easy. Still, since there IS the chance that honeypot is third party, I feel bit unsecured about Darryll volunteering.
You seem to be pretty sure than squidjy is town then? If he is KGB, mafia wouldnt night kill you, since they could try to lynch you next day. If he really is town, you might have a case in your hands.
Agree with points here. If Squidjy is mafia, he wouldnt have said anything about Arkos and Cabbeh, and instead would have kept it as secret information between mafia, since the more they know than town, the better for mafia.
Since Cabbeh talks about Septimus, I think its a good point to give some points about him too. I agree with points made about him (about mistaking info that was already discussed before-hand. There was not that much posts at that point at least compared to now). There is a big change between his posts in D1 and D2, something that is pretty noticeable in Seaths posts too.
Alright, thats mostly everything I have to say about last five pages or so.
TL;DR
- ElTopo feels pretty suspective especially after reacting to other peoples accusations. I will still keep my vote with Seath though, since he is still giving biggest vibes of either neutral or scum, and in my eyes neutrals should be voted off too since Town needs them usually to die too in order to win.
- Darryll volunteering is bit nerving, but I cant see honeypot to act so transparently. Especially if honeypot is KGB.
- If squidjy is mafia, why would he have basically given Arkos and Cabbeh town-status? He would have kept that info to himself and mafia if he is scum.
- I think three new ones for night is better than last night-chatters since honeypot COULD be neutral even if I feel its not that propable because game balance.
General stuff post-by-post part.1:
El Topos list of post count is kind of wasted in the long-run, since post-count does not really tell you much apart from seeing who people post awful lot and who almost nothing. Just posting postcount is especially problematic since it completely ignores all fluffy-filler posts or posts that are basically just one sentence long. More important is to look at how many posts are actually contributive, and even then you have to remember people have lives outside of the game. So yeah post-lists can be informative, but one shouldnt post only that, I guess.
I agree Mazre with this, and is one of the reasons why I think Palmers drone claims are more anti-town than pro-town in my eyes.
This is actually a pretty valid point. Like I said in Palmers case, it would be convenient for mafia to figure out reasons why they dont die during nights, the same thing I feel Palmer could use his claims for. Also another thing that came to mind just now for Ezekiel to make this claim was in order to make possible roleblocker to keep silent. Since, you know, if Ezekiels claim is not real, its possible that the kill was prevented by the blocker blocking the right scum-member.
That said, I still stand that I will believe Ezekiel, just because claiming Archer would be really dangerous since there would most likely be another archer here who could bust him.
Also, is ynnys (too long of a username!) posts always this filled with emoticons? It could be a scums way to try to look bit more innocent with the use of emoticons. I havent read his earlier game (AC according to ynny himself, right), so I dont have sufficient data to see if this style is consistent with that game.
For me its important to look at claims in detail, since with secret role-list a false claim could be very viable strategy. My suspicion for Ezekiels claim was mostly because I first thought that honeypot was a neutral party, which would have made her finding Archer much harder. Since its possible she might be kgb, Ezekiels claim is much more believable, since other mafia can make a guess they found Archer if no kill happens during night.
Mostly about ElTopo:
Now Palmers post-by-post analysis of El Topo is much more what I think is contributive than simply posting list of how much everyone has posted. I agree with some points Palmer makes, like how lot of El Topo himselfs are fluffy, although I do disagree with some as well too. For example I do agree with El Topo that people should believe real-world claims because lying about that is really stupid thing to do. But in general, great work Palmer! It has given lot of insight to El Topos posting.
ElTopo does response to this analysis and is it me, or is he suddenly really defensive like Razmos was in day 1? It could be that he is just generally annoyed, but usually losing your cool over accusations is mafia-type of behaviour since mafia-members have much more to lose by dying that town has in general. ElTopos answers have turned much more aggressive in course of this day. For example this post:
I still think it would be better if you told out loud your suspicions. Its pro-town behaviour to tell about suspicions, now this just sounds like Yeah I dont trust these guys but I aint telling why, which is not really helping us to discuss. Sulking like this almost feels like martyrism to me, which is anti-town behaviour in general.
I also agree with other people that its odd ElTopo said day 1 is useless, especially since this game has had lot of stuff happening in day 1 that could have an impact later on.
General stuff post-by-post part 2:
Id say three completely new people would be better, since there is the chance that honeypot was in the night 1 chat still. And yeah, Id say three-person chat would be better than two-person, since with three there wouldnt be that he-sais she-said situation you note.
---
Then Darryls volunteering comes, bit out of left field as well.
I disagree with Darryl being honeypot. It seems way way too obvious, and if Ezekiel dies next night, it would directly cast the spotlights on Darryl then. On the other notes the volunteering does make me raise my eyebrows, especially since I just said that three new missioners might be better than an older one over there. And now at the point Darryll volunteered, there was 50% of old already.
About Darryll volunteering: I still think honeypot isnt third party just because in my eyes that would make Ezekiels power unbalanced, and I trust Ourobolos that he has spent time making sure that the game stays balanced. If honeypot is KGB and doesnt have seperate win-condition at that, he wouldnt kill Ezekiel this early in the game with this huge amount of players outside the night-chat. It would make finding one of KGB really easy. Still, since there IS the chance that honeypot is third party, I feel bit unsecured about Darryll volunteering.
You seem to be pretty sure than squidjy is town then? If he is KGB, mafia wouldnt night kill you, since they could try to lynch you next day. If he really is town, you might have a case in your hands.
Agree with points here. If Squidjy is mafia, he wouldnt have said anything about Arkos and Cabbeh, and instead would have kept it as secret information between mafia, since the more they know than town, the better for mafia.
Since Cabbeh talks about Septimus, I think its a good point to give some points about him too. I agree with points made about him (about mistaking info that was already discussed before-hand. There was not that much posts at that point at least compared to now). There is a big change between his posts in D1 and D2, something that is pretty noticeable in Seaths posts too.
Alright, thats mostly everything I have to say about last five pages or so.
TL;DR
- ElTopo feels pretty suspective especially after reacting to other peoples accusations. I will still keep my vote with Seath though, since he is still giving biggest vibes of either neutral or scum, and in my eyes neutrals should be voted off too since Town needs them usually to die too in order to win.
- Darryll volunteering is bit nerving, but I cant see honeypot to act so transparently. Especially if honeypot is KGB.
- If squidjy is mafia, why would he have basically given Arkos and Cabbeh town-status? He would have kept that info to himself and mafia if he is scum.
- I think three new ones for night is better than last night-chatters since honeypot COULD be neutral even if I feel its not that propable because game balance.
Disclaimer post: As was the case last week, I will not be available for the deadline rush tomorrow as it ends before 5pm EDT, so I will vote tonight and that will be my vote until the end.
I am currently rereading the entirety of D2, but my list of possibilities is currently (in no order):
Ezekel (if I come to the conclusion he is lying)
Darryl (for being the reincarnation of GLT + the sudden volunteer)
Palmer (Honeypot?)
Mazre (Honeypot?)
Arkos (Honeypot?)
Septimus (D1 to D2 change is striking)
I personally dont see the reason for voting for Squidy or El Topo right now more then the list above.
May change this vote later, but as Darryl currently has votes of the 3 Honeypot possibilities we know about + the volunteer thing...
VOTE: Darryl
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
Oh, not that many posts actually. Gosh, everyone's been drilling into El Topo, poor Topo~
I'm.... almost sorry.
:> I'm so horrible~ :3
Having said that, I actually have been bothered by something else last night. A weird thought emerged and I might need y'all help with figuring a weird thing out for me. Well, even if y'all just sit there and nod and agree with my illustrious self~
squidyj, why you only put "she's" against my name! :< i wants to hear moreeeeeee..........and who cares about capitalisation huzzah \o/
burbeting, I was in StarWars not AC ... dont remind me of it though~ PTSD ALERT~
I'm.... almost sorry.
:> I'm so horrible~ :3
No really, I'm kind of sorry but not enough to take that heat off yet since I'm still thinking about stuff...
Having said that, I actually have been bothered by something else last night. A weird thought emerged and I might need y'all help with figuring a weird thing out for me. Well, even if y'all just sit there and nod and agree with my illustrious self~
squidyj, why you only put "she's" against my name! :< i wants to hear moreeeeeee..........and who cares about capitalisation huzzah \o/
burbeting, I was in StarWars not AC ... dont remind me of it though~ PTSD ALERT~
I agree, the odds of Ezekel dying tonight are basically 0 due to all of the attention called to the Honeypot thing, thats basically asking for the other volunteers to be lynched one by one.
However, that could potentially be why he did volunteer - to defer suspicion. Just because Honeypot and Archer are in the same pool does not mean Honeypot has to kill Archer that night. As noted, Darryl is a potential Honeypot suspect because GLT was one for being in the first mission. Its a bit of an odd move to volunteer now, but it doesnt exactly imply Honeypot unless Ezekel dies tonight.
Thats the problem with trying to find the Honeypot. Either A) Its all a trick and he/she doesnt exist in the game, B) He/She does exist but we have no clues aside from 4 possibilities (but potentially a lot more then that) unless they are killed/lynched or Archer dies.
I've seen this argument a few times and while it's not incorrect it may be a bit overstated. Don't forget that mafia want to seem like town, and this is an easy way to appear so with little penalty to mafia. The fact that cabbeh and arkos are so heavily regarded as town this early in the game actually makes them appealing targets for mafia during the night.
If GLT was sick enough to drop out, I don't think we can hold his inactivity against him and, more importantly, hold it against Darryl as he picked up the slot.
The volunteering, yes, not so good, but we should leave GLT out of this.
The volunteering, yes, not so good, but we should leave GLT out of this.
QuantumBro
Banned
Are our choices for who to lynch really going to be between El Topo and Squidy? Both are pretty active and I have a good feeling that El Topo isn't Mafia. I'm thinking of voting between cooljeanus and mikehawk since both of them are pretty inactive and thus wouldn't be a big loss if they're town. No one else is jumping out at me as Mafia right now.
No one seems to be caring about the identity of Honeypot, so I'll come back to that tomorrow if I'm still alive.
No one seems to be caring about the identity of Honeypot, so I'll come back to that tomorrow if I'm still alive.
I just presume Mafia wants to hunt the power roles much more than they want to hunt the drones, so knowing two drones gives them a smaller list of candidates to kill power roles from.
I do agree that it's posaible Squidjy did it just to gather town-points in the eyes of other. Still, I would argue it was much more pro-town thing to do than anti.
Not a bad way to consider it. I was working from 'bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush' side of the equation.
Re: squidyj's behavior: Agreed, just wary about unchallenged arguments turning to facts within the group.
Yeah, I just should have said Honeypot candidate for Darryl, which is what I meant (as GLT was one of the first 4 volunteers)
If I'm reading the recent votes right it looks like ET(5), Seath(2), squidyj(4), Darryl(3), all others 1 or less. Hard to say how that shakes out in the next 24 hours given D1s sudden shift.
Doesn't Darryl also have 4 votes now?
You are correct, I missed Enker's vote.
Septimus Prime
Member
The exception, of course, is if Honeypot is a neutral whose win condition would be triggered by just killing Archer (or, worse, if Honeypot killing Archer would trigger a KGB win and end the game, but I find this unlikely), in which case it won't matter to him that he gets lynched after tonight, since he would have already won by then.
This possibility seems likely, even, since he has little to lose in going for it now, since the only way to stop it would be to lynch him right now, which we don't really seem to be interested in doing.
Septimus Prime
Member
With this in mind, actually, and seeing that Daryll actually has more votes on him than I thought, I'm going to switch my vote from squidyj to Daryll to try to preempt a potential Honeypot win.
UNVOTE: squidyj
VOTE: Daryll
UNVOTE: squidyj
VOTE: Daryll
Those that have voted against me, I implore you to reconsider.
I have not thrown theories at other players*, I have been (I think) pretty consistent, I have explained myself thoroughly, I have taken a clear stance regarding Seath and Ezzi, I have been fairly active, I have been honest and forthcoming, I even unvolunteered after I had been accused.
What could I reasonably do to convince any of you otherwise?
*I have been pretty clear that squidyj is just some feeling, not a "He is mafia" theory and I am willing to unvote him if you guys have a better plan. I just don't see it.
I simply have no one else. There's players that just joined or have too little posts, so it feels unfair to attack them, especially after the first day (and having been criticized for counting posts). There's players that should be official suspects, but I believe and/or trust them, to some extent, so I don't feel like voting for them.
If anyone has a better proposition on who we should lynch, I'm willing to do that. I just don't see any other candidate.
I have not thrown theories at other players*, I have been (I think) pretty consistent, I have explained myself thoroughly, I have taken a clear stance regarding Seath and Ezzi, I have been fairly active, I have been honest and forthcoming, I even unvolunteered after I had been accused.
What could I reasonably do to convince any of you otherwise?
*I have been pretty clear that squidyj is just some feeling, not a "He is mafia" theory and I am willing to unvote him if you guys have a better plan. I just don't see it.
I simply have no one else. There's players that just joined or have too little posts, so it feels unfair to attack them, especially after the first day (and having been criticized for counting posts). There's players that should be official suspects, but I believe and/or trust them, to some extent, so I don't feel like voting for them.
If anyone has a better proposition on who we should lynch, I'm willing to do that. I just don't see any other candidate.
Septimus Prime
Member
Dammit, I meant
NO VOTE: squidyj
NO VOTE: squidyj
For future reference casting a vote voids the previous one, you don't have to no vote/unvote prior to casting a new vote.
We should have a very good read that Honeypot is not neutral by the beginning of D3 when people volunteer. Based on who those folks are, and assuming Archer isnt dead tomorrow, then the Honeypot would not be acting in their own best interest with that win condition.
If they are neutral, as I noted before, we have already lost the game because Ezekel claimed Archer so its a matter of time. Unless hes not, of course.