Elaugaufein
Member
It's just as likely that the conscience vote exists because Gillard was against it. Now that the leader is supportive of the issue there may be more support in the party room to abolish the conscience vote.
Also there is a pretty loose connection between the factional allegiance of the MP and the seat they hold (I used to live in one of the most progressive seats in the country and it was held by an SDA type) and even if there was a connection they would lose. Most people vote according to party allegiance rather than the MP and there really aren't many votes anymore in appealing to traditional Labor voters who are also against same-sex marriage.
Yeah, true, especially in the safe seats since there's a lot of factional horse trading on that count, though sometimes it does bite them (but given that the actual party room is about 20% to the right of their base its a lot more likely to bite them from the left than the right).