Bernie Sanders Surges to First Place in New Hampshire Primary Polling

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I've been hearing a lot of "I want Bernie, but he probably won't win, so..."

I think if everyone that said that actually voted for him, we might have a chance.
 
One poll is one poll, it could be an outlier or the start of a trend. Given the other numbers we've seen recently my money is on outlier. That said, I do want him to be doing well but we have to be real with stuff like this.
 
B-Dubs said:
One poll is one poll, it could be an outlier or the start of a trend. Given the other numbers we've seen recently my money is on outlier. That said, I do want him to be doing well but we have to be real with stuff like this.
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Last two NH polls had him down 4-6 point range, he does better in NH than nationally, probably helps he neighbors the state.
 
B-Dubs said:
One poll is one poll, it could be an outlier or the start of a trend. Given the other numbers we've seen recently my money is on outlier. That said, I do want him to be doing well but we have to be real with stuff like this.
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NH is a very good example of the national sway. Trust me; I have the letters of the best state in the union in my name.
 
It's only one poll but I want this to be true all around. I don't see myself voting for Hillary, but I like a lot of what I hear about Sanders.
 
B-Dubs said:
One poll is one poll, it could be an outlier or the start of a trend. Given the other numbers we've seen recently my money is on outlier. That said, I do want him to be doing well but we have to be real with stuff like this.
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It's the first primary though. So if he can win there regardless of the situation, he'll be a real contender thanks to the media attention it brings.
 
starwarsfan541 said:
Didnt see this mentioned and we seem to have a lot of Sanders threads so why not one more,
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Bernie needs his own official thread.

I've been wearing my Bernie shirt throughout the past week just about everywhere I go. Had a cashier say she liked my shirt as well as a fellow customer at a UPS who was wondering when she'll get her shirts(took a month to get mine).

Bernie taking the lead in NH is no surprise since he's going to win the Nomination and the Presidency.
 
B-Dubs said:
One poll is one poll, it could be an outlier or the start of a trend. Given the other numbers we've seen recently my money is on outlier. That said, I do want him to be doing well but we have to be real with stuff like this.
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"I disagree with the numbers" = Outlier polls (you are saying the same in the Trump thread).

And what other numbers? All NH polls (the two or three of them) had Bernie a couple of points (5-6) behind Clinton 2 weeks ago.
 
OctoMan said:
It's the first primary though. So if he can win there regardless of the situation, he'll be a real contender thanks to the media attention it brings.
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I'm not talking about him winning or losing the state, I'm just saying that this poll doesn't gel with the others we have seen coming out of the state. It could very well be an outlier and indicative of nothing or it could be the start of a trend. If it was the start of a trend I think the swing would be a lot smaller, so I'm leaning towards it being an outlier.

Melkr_ said:
"I disagree with the numbers" = Outlier polls (you are saying the same in the Trump thread).

And what other numbers? All NH polls (the two or three of them) had Bernie a couple of points (5-6) behind Clinton 2 weeks ago.
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I'm saying you need to take any poll with all the other polls around it. No poll is 100% accurate, but if every poll puts Bernie down 5-6 points and this one puts him up that same margin it's likely an outlier. With the Trump one, every poll we've seen coming out of that debate has Trump holding steady or gaining ground, except for that one poll. You have to follow the line of best fit, if 9 polls say Bernie is down and 1 says he's up then he's likely down. That's how statistics work. No one poll is perfect, but when looking at a bunch at once we can see the trends and suss out the truth of the matter.
 
I'm kinda worried about Sanders winning the bid to be honest.

The democrats need someone who isn't afraid to speak louder than Trump. Sanders sounds like someone who "we wish was president" but can he actually lead his way there?
 
Looking through the tables it looks like they polled a lot of independents. I have a hard time believing that many independents will show up to polls for the democratic primary.
 
Melkr_ said:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

How? The tendency is there, if you know how to read numbers. Not liking the numbers doesnt make a poll into "an outlier".
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Because while he is trending upward, this is a huge swing. Huge swings either result from huge media events, like a shit debate performance or a huge scandal taking up all the headlines, or are a result of a faulty methodology. As there has been no huge debate or scandal in the time frame this poll would have been taken, as of right now it can be safely classified as an outlier. If other polls come out saying the same thing then it's legit, but if they don't then this is just statistical noise.
 
ErasureAcer said:
Bernie needs his own official thread.

I've been wearing my Bernie shirt throughout the past week just about everywhere I go. Had a cashier say she liked my shirt as well as a fellow customer at a UPS who was wondering when she'll get her shirts(took a month to get mine).

Bernie taking the lead in NH is no surprise since he's going to win the Nomination and the Presidency.
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Don't give up on Kucinich just yet bro.
 
Melkr_ said:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html

How? The tendency is there, if you know how to read numbers. Not liking the numbers doesnt make a poll into "an outlier".
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there's a difference between "not liking the numbers" and observing that the numbers don't really favor this being an accurate read of the race (especially if PPP was in the field just last week and still had Clinton leading), much like there's a difference between a rational supporter of Bernie Sanders and ErasureAcer
 
It's the same issue with Donald Trump: early state elections don't mean as much as the media acts like they do and very few primaries are actually winner take all the way the media implies.
 
Seventy70 said:
I've been hearing a lot of "I want Bernie, but he probably won't win, so..."

I think if everyone that said that actually voted for him, we might have a chance.
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Yeah perception plays such a big role in these popularity contests.

People don't want to vote for someone who they think is going to lose. People want to feel good when who they voted for wins.
 
eBay Huckster said:
there's a difference between "not liking the numbers" and observing that the numbers don't really favor this being an accurate read of the race (especially if PPP was in the field just last week and still had Clinton leading), much like there's a difference between a rational supporter of Bernie Sanders and ErasureAcer
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They are inside the margin of error. Just like the polls before, and the margin can favor any candidate, not just Sanders. If anything this poll shows they are tied atm.
 
Melkr_ said:
So now the polling center of the Franklin Pierce University is "bullshit"?

https://www.franklinpierce.edu/institutes/mfcc/polling.htm

If anything, the numbers may yet not be so in favour of Sanders winning NH since Biden is still included, and his voters overwhelmingly have Clinton as their second option.
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42.3% of respondents polled were independent, which is significantly higher than the voter makeup as of the 2012 election and seems unusually high.

Retrocore9 said:
As the Hillary email server scandal unfolds, her polls are going to drop. This is the beginning I think.

for those who don't know: Hillary had a private email server at her house which she used for Top Secret class government correspondence. Your not supposed to keep top secret documents in the home basement, much less a private email server :)

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article30714762.html
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Hey look, another person who has no idea what they are talking about.
 
Retrocore9 said:
As the Hillary email server scandal unfolds, her polls are going to drop. This is the beginning I think.

for those who don't know: Hillary had a private email server at her house which she used for Top Secret class government correspondence. Your not supposed to keep top secret documents in the home basement, much less a private email server :)

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article30714762.html
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yeah, like this post is just the beginning of people continuing to parrot an inaccurate read

Melkr_ said:
They are inside the margin of error. Just like the polls before, and the margin can favor any candidate, not just Sanders. If anything this poll shows they are tied atm.
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huh, didn't notice this had a MoE of 4.7%

even so, I'm more inclined to believe other polling (showing Clinton still up 5-10) on the grounds of 1) they're generally polling larger samples and 2) FPU literally started polling 5 months ago
 
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