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[Kleegamefan]

http://news.designtechnica.com/talkback67.html

 

[Redbeard]

Both Products Lose: Dual Layer and Holographic Storage Wins

In the end, if one of these standards must win, Blu-ray has the inside track. But if we don’t end up with one standard (or maybe even if we do) the market is likely to stay with dual layer DVD for now as “good enough,” suggesting that the next big move, still years out, will be holographic storage.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Microsoft and Intel to Support HD-DVD
By Nate Mook, BetaNews
September 26, 2005, 10:24 PM

JUST IN Microsoft and Intel are expected on Tuesday to pledge their support for HD-DVD, the next-generation DVD format created by Toshiba. Microsoft had previously remained neutral in the standards war between HD-DVD and Sony-backed Blu-ray, as the company's VC-1 Windows Media Video codec will be included with both formats.

The announcement isn't that surprising, however. Microsoft's Xbox will soon begin a fierce battle with Sony's Blu-ray capable PlayStation 3 for living room dominance, and the company inked a deal in April for Warner Home Video to use VC-1 in its HD-DVD discs.

Other Microsoft rivals, including Apple and Sun, have thrown their support behind Blu-ray. Sun's Java Virtual Machine technology will power the menus and multimedia features in the new format.

In June, Microsoft also entered into a wide-ranging agreement with Toshiba that enables the two companies to share hardware and software technologies. At the time, Microsoft said it would investigate the feasibility of an HD-DVD player running Windows CE.

But in the end, copyright controls may have been the deciding factor for Microsoft and Intel. As the companies push out more Media Center enabled PCs, the movement of protected content around the home becomes an important factor.

Blu-ray will include advanced watermarking technology that favors standalone consumer electronics devices by requiring authorization codes built into the hardware to access content. Such security features could make it difficult for consumers bouncing video from a PC to a TV, or those streaming content between networked computers.

Backing from "Wintel" and other PC heavyweights could prove an important boost for HD-DVD, which has been losing momentum to Blu-ray in recent months. Toshiba acknowledged in late August that its high-definition DVD format would not be ready by the end of the year as originally planned, pushing HD-DVD into early 2006.

Still, it's unclear whether consumers will even express interest in high-definition DVD - especially with the confusion a fractured marketplace will bring. Movie studios could create hybrid discs that also contain original DVD content, but that won't encourage users to make the leap into HD.

http://www.betanews.com/article/Microsoft_and_Intel_to_Support_HDDVD/1127787846

 

[Culex]

Doesn't matter. No way MS is going to stop 50 million+ Blu-Ray players from being bought in the future.

 

[HokieJoe]

I bet Toshiba didn't even get a reach around on that deal.

Seriously though, that's a pretty big score for Toshiba. I have a feeling it won't make a difference either way though. This is shaping up to be a fine mess Ollie.

 

[Razoric]

Doesn't matter. No way MS is going to stop 50 million+ Blu-Ray players from being bought in the future.

Exactly. When PS3 is released, Blu-Ray wins.

 

[Pimpwerx]

HD-DVD has no chance. Let's not even mention it anymore. That said, has Plextor pledged allegiance to any specific format? What about Lite-On? Odd that I choose manufacturers at opposite ends of the spectrum, but I've had great success with LiteOn drives, and Plextor flat out rocks. PEACE.

 

[Ryudo]

Sun's Java Virtual Machine technology will power the menus and multimedia features in the new format.

For fuck sake, cant this company just piss of with their shitty software ? Their VM is so bloated and resource intensive it should be illegal.

 

[Speevy]

Call me ignorant, but I expect to walk in a video store in 2007 and still find the shelves lined with DVD's.

 

[VisionaryQuest0]

Call me ignorant, but I expect to walk in a video store in 2007 and still find the shelves lined with DVD's.

True, because in 2007 HDTVs will STILL be in only a very small percentage of homes.

 

[Hurricane_Chris]

Sun's Java Virtual Machine technology will power the menus and multimedia features in the new format.

For fuck sake, cant this company just piss of with their shitty software ? Their VM is so bloated and resource intensive it should be illegal.

AFAIK BRD devices will have a wide variety of sourced components adhering to a minimum specification. Some hardware independant runtime needs to be present to use software. JVM will be used but from what I've read the implementation could vary from vendor to vendor. Meaning Sun's actual implementation won't be used everywhere, also of course Sun is going to have to start from a toned down implementation able to deal with a resource constrained device like a BRD device (it's minimum hardware specs for running general software are relatively low)

 

[Lunar Aura]

BR will become the next UMD. niche running along side of its flagship product base. DVD for the win. HDTV isnt common enough right now. i'd bet more people have ps2s or broadband internet service than they have HDTVs with HDMI.

 

[Lardbutt]

JUST IN Microsoft and Intel are expected on Tuesday to pledge their support for HD-DVD, the next-generation DVD format created by Toshiba. Microsoft had previously remained neutral in the standards war between HD-DVD and Sony-backed Blu-ray, as the company's VC-1 Windows Media Video codec will be included with both formats.

If Microsoft really wanted to support HD-DVD, why didn't they just put a HD-DVD drive in the X360?....that decision is looking dumber and dumber by the day.

 

[Bebpo]

BR will become the next UMD. niche running along side of its flagship product base. DVD for the win. HDTV isnt common enough right now. i'd bet more people have ps2s or broadband internet service than they have HDTVs with HDMI.

If Blu-Ray is going to be a niche, than HDTVs are going to be a niche as well.

Seriously the fact of the matter is when people eventually move to HDTV they will also be moving to Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray will grow as the HDTV market does and eventually when everyone has an HDTV in 2010+ or something everyone will have a Blu-Ray player as well.

 

[Kintaro]

If Blu-Ray is going to be a niche, than HDTVs are going to be a niche as well.

Seriously the fact of the matter is when people eventually move to HDTV they will also be moving to Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray will grow as the HDTV market does and eventually when everyone has an HDTV in 2010+ or something everyone will have a Blu-Ray player as well.

And in 2010, a new medium will be out which will make Blu Ray look like complete shit and blah blah blah...NEW FORMAT blah blah blah Blu Ray what? blah blah blah...

 

[HokieJoe]

Just to throw a little more petrol on the proverbial fire, here's a white paper that was posted by a guy over at the AVS Forum:

EDIT: Oh, here's the link to the thread:

Blu-ray- The Emporer's New Clothes?

Blu-ray - The Emperor's New Clothes?
Attached please find a link to a white paper I wrote on concerns about the manufacturability of Blu-ray discs versus that of HD DVD. A little background on myself, I have been involved with optical media since the introduction of the CD in 1982. With DVD, I served as Senior Vice President and General Manager of Warner Advanced Media Operations (WAMO), where I led WAMO engineering and management as it developed and marketed the DVD format worldwide. I was later the CEO of Ritek Global Media and President of Deluxe Global Media Services.

In order for people and companies to invest enormous amounts of money, effort and intellectual capital developing new products and formats that will move the industry forward, they need accurate information and data to make an informed, objective assessment. As someone intimately familiar with the economics of media manufacturing, I can tell you that the numbers I’m seeing – or more importantly, not seeing -- don’t add up for a proven manufacturing process.

And the white paper:

The media manufacturing industry is on the verge of another milestone in its history. The introduction of the next-generation format of the optical disc is imminent, and I take a tremendous amount of satisfaction in having participated in the entertainment industry’s participation in this format, from the introduction of the CD in 1982 and a decade later with DVD, as Senior Vice President and General Manager of Warner Advanced Media Operations (WAMO), where I led WAMO management and engineering as it developed and marketed the DVD format worldwide. I was later the CEO of Ritek Global Media and President of Deluxe Global Media Services.

That’s why I feel that I have to speak out at this point. In order for people and companies to invest enormous amounts of money, effort and intellectual capital developing new products and formats that will move the industry forward, they need accurate information and data to make an informed, objective assessment. And as someone intimately familiar with the economics of physical media manufacturing, I can tell you that the numbers I’m seeing – or more importantly, not seeing -- don’t add up for a proven manufacturing process
The rate of DVD sales is beginning to flatten. That’s inevitable, as it is with any format over time, and the average price of DVD discs continues to decline, as it would with any commodity product. At the same time, major film studios continue to reap increasingly larger percentages of their profits from DVD home video sales. Why, at this critical time of transition, would an entire industry want to radically alter its manufacturing infrastructure, incurring massive new tooling capital costs and a huge new learning curve in the process?

The Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) has long asserted that its Blu-ray (BD) format is superior to the rival HD DVD format, and BD’s “revolutionary” buzz has understandably caught the fancy of certain technologists. But it should scare CEOs, because what the BDA does not sufficiently address is what lies behind those assertions. The numbers are stark: manufacturing BD discs will require an estimated $1.7 million cost per manufacturing line. Per line! Then, each major manufacturing facility would require the implementation of a minimum of two mastering systems, at a minimum cost of $2 million per system. DVD, at the height of its success, resulted in an estimated 600 manufacturing lines globally. Even allowing for a decline in systems costs over time as the manufacturing base expanded, the tab for radically overhauling the media manufacturing industry would approach a billion dollars worldwide or more. Already-beleaguered CFOs will be challenged to raise –and risk – this significant amount of capital.

Compare this to the estimated cost of retooling for the HD DVD format compared to BD ROM. HD DVD is able to utilize virtually the entire existing manufacturing infrastructure. The cost of upgrading an existing DVD line is about $150,000 – less than a tenth the cost of a BD line. A DVD mastering system can be upgraded for $145,000. Basically, HD DVD is a DVD-9 – a version of DVD we have enormous manufacturing experience with already – with a denser pit structure.

The manufacturing process of the BD format is not fully evolved. For instance, there remains a significant debate regarding the best way to create the 0.1-mm layer that forms the top layer of the disc. Both BD and HD DVD offer content owners and consumers dramatically larger amounts of digital real estate, which will be necessary to match the high-definition programming that is the future of entertainment media. But the BD format will require an already strained manufacturing base to invest massive amounts of capital in new manufacturing technology even as disagreements about just what that technology is rages around them. If consumer demand for HD is what projections predict, the simple fact is that BD will not allow the manufacturing base to retool fast enough to keep up with the demand curve.

Furthermore, there is little in the way of statistical verification of any actual production data for BD. Major disc manufacturers are still far from collecting statistically-significant samples with BD production lines that prove that BD ROM can be mass produced in a typical 6-sigma capable process, and there is virtually no previous experience upon which to base manufacturing. High production demand on an unstable manufacturing process significantly increases the risk of consumer failures. On top of that, those same replicators will still have to continue to operate their existing DVD lines as the market makes its transition from standard-definition formats to high-definition ones, even as that same market continues to mature and experience ever-tighter profit margins. You don’t need a degree in engineering or economics to realize that this is a recipe for disaster.
On the other hand, there is a wealth of manufacturing data available on DVD, virtually all of which is applicable to HD DVD manufacturing. DVD and HD DVD can be manufactured on the same line with only minor adjustments. This enables replicators to maximize the productivity of their equipment, altering it to the ebb and flow of demand for either format.

Strong home video titles require the ability to manufacture huge quantities of discs in a very tight time window. Failure to meet that demand because the industry is struggling to learn and refine manufacturing on a radically new format can not only jeopardize the sales of that title – it can strangle an entire industry that depends on hit titles. Inability to meet demand could ultimately sink the format and vastly diminish consumer confidence in any new format. As we’ve learned, new formats drive this industry in the long term.

With HD DVD, we understand all the critical variables in manufacturing discs already. That verifiable productivity means that the cost of manufacturing the format is estimated to be only 15 to 20 percent higher than that of standard DVD.

Given all this information, why risk the fortunes of an entire industry on a potentially disruptive, incompletely tested format when a highly reliable evolutionary format, one already familiar to tens of millions of consumers, is readily available? The amount of time, money and effort to so dramatically alter the manufacturing infrastructure has been substantially underestimated for BD. In fact, it’s responsible for delaying the roll-out of a much-needed upgrade for the home video industry, and has in effect held a portion of the industry resources hostage as a result. Thus, it’s disingenuous to suggest, as some in the BD camp have, that the competition is over. Once people realize the hidden costs of the Blu-ray format, they will also realize the extent to which it actually endangers their very industry.

Blu-ray is the Emperor’s New Clothes – it advances the agendas of a few select companies instead of the market’s and that of the consumer. No one – the studios, the disc manufacturers, the consumer electronics manufacturers – can afford a format war today. Consumers want a format that’s familiar and reliable. Shareholders want to see unhindered growth in packaged media, which remains a multi-billion-dollar-a-year industry. Game developers are targeting home video demographics. Cable and satellite delivery is betting big on high definition. HD DVD offers predictable, reliable manufacturing; high capacity; predictable, manageable costs; verifiable quality, enormous familiarity worldwide, and billions of dollars that the consumer will not have to pay that will instead be converted into profits for the entire home video entertainment industry. Even the name of the format is highly consumer-friendly -- any brand marketer will tell you that it would take millions of ad dollars and years of promotion for Blu-ray to build the caliber of brand equity enjoyed by a familiar sounding HD DVD brand.

We got DVD right and it gave the entertainment media industry a windfall. Right now, the process of introducing the next generation of entertainment media is spinning dangerously out of control and we are running out of time. Consumers are fickle. We better make sure we get HD right.

Of course, this is from a former Time Warner cat poo-pooing the BR standard so take it FWIW; but he does make some good points.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Call me ignorant, but I expect to walk in a video store in 2007 and still find the shelves lined with DVD's.

You can find tons of VHS tapes(and that format dates back to the 70s) on video store shelves today.....

 

[Kleegamefan]

Just to throw a little more petrol on the proverbial fire, here's a white paper that was posted by a guy over at the AVS Forum:



And the white paper:



Of course, this is from a former Time Warner cat poo-pooing the BR standard so take it FWIW; but he does make some good points.

HokieJoe, why dont you post the thread that came from, which *also* adds some intresting counterpoints to that whitepaper:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=584523


He failed to note that HD-DVD will require tolorences of new DVD lines ($1M) on top of the 150K HD-DVD costs so the *real* comparison to BRD is $1.15M vs, $1.7M, not $150K vs 1.7M


It seems like the consensus in that thread is this whitepaper is a bunch of FUD

 

[HokieJoe]

HokieJoe, why dont you post the thread that came from, which *also* adds some intresting counterpoints to that whitepaper:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=584523


It seems like the consensus in that thread is this whitepaper is a bunch of FUD

Sorry, I didn't get through the whole first thread yet. I really don't have a dog in this fight other than that I think BR is a superior format in most ways. I'm just trying to offer information.

 

[3rdman]

If Microsoft really wanted to support HD-DVD, why didn't they just put a HD-DVD drive in the X360?....that decision is looking dumber and dumber by the day.

You're not seeing the bigger picture. Sony is (as far as I can see) introducing a new format into a marketplace that has shown absolutely no desire for change. To force a change almost always results in failure...its a lesson they still haven't learned from ATRACor Betamax.

Add to this consumer apathy the fact that only a very small percentage of people will actually be able to benefit from the new format on their PS3's. B-Ray movies will be protected and without HDCP, movie quality will be vitually identical to a high-end DVD setup. So unless Sony is giving away HDMI empowered TV's, I'd say that they'd be lucky to get reach any kind of sizeable market. My HDTV simply doesn't have it and theres not much of a chance that I'll be able to in the near future.

The only benefit (for me anyways) is the increased disc space for games...but remember you'll also be getting a slower transfer rate compared to the 12x DVD in the 360. HD-DVD would have been a great choice in terms of both price and storage for any console, but MS made a wise business (money and reliability) decision even if it isn't a popular one. There is no demand for a new format...why bother?

 

[Kleegamefan]

Sorry, I didn't get through the whole first thread yet. I really don't have a dog in this fight other than that I think BR is a superior format in most ways. I'm just trying to offer information.

OK....I just noticed the link in your edit

The only benefit (for me anyways) is the increased disc space for games...but remember you'll also be getting a slower transfer rate compared to the 12x DVD in the 360.

So I take it you discovered the speed of the PS3's BRD-ROM drive!!

Thats great news


So how fast is it?

 

[Arcticfox]

With a standard DVD in the X360, Microsoft doesn't really matter. Its not like they will stop Blu-ray disks from playing in Windows.

Intel makes absolutely no sense, though. Dell, HP, Apple and pretty much the whole computer community supports Blu-ray because capacity is all that matters to them. If 90% of prebuilt Intel machines with HD disk drives have Blu-ray instead of HD-DVD, what would they gain by supporting HD-DVD?

 

[Lardbutt]

remember you'll also be getting a slower transfer rate compared to the 12x DVD in the 360.

WTF...this is the first time I heard of this...you're not making this up are you?

 

[Blimblim]

IHMO, Blu-Ray (and HD DVD of course) will go the way of the Laser Disc. Niche format.

 

[3rdman]

WTF...this is the first time I heard of this...you're not making this up are you?

No I'm not, but I'm also only regurgitating what I've read. I could be wrong.

 

[White Man]

IHMO, Blu-Ray (and HD DVD of course) will go the way of the Laser Disc. Niche format.

+1 The home video mass market isn't one that's willing to rebuy their collections every 5 years. A/V folks might be willing to do it, but no way will the masses.

 

[Jonnyram]

IHMO, Blu-Ray (and HD DVD of course) will go the way of the Laser Disc. Niche format.

This is looking exceedingly likely. Typical users aren't looking to upgrade for another 5 years or so, at which point optical media will probably have much higher capacity than today's HD-DVD and BRD solutions.

 

[drohne]

if "blu ray" is going to be the new video format, they ought to change the name. "i have to go return some blu rays. is that out on blu ray? doctor i have a blu ray stuck in my anus and i swear i don't know how it got there."

 

[Kleegamefan]

+1 The home video mass market isn't one that's willing to rebuy their collections every 5 years. A/V folks might be willing to do it, but no way will the masses.

Again, there is no need to rebuy anything......There will be catalog and new release BRD movies, just like DVDs.....you can continue to buy DVDs and then buy select BRD movies if you wish.....the player will play them both anyway which is quite unlike DVD player which could not play VHS tapes.....

 

[rastex]

It seems like the consensus in that thread is this whitepaper is a bunch of FUD

Not at all actually...

 

[Arluss]

I'm more scared off by the DRM crap that BR will have.

 

[jett]

Call me ignorant, but I expect to walk in a video store in 2007 and still find the shelves lined with DVD's.

I believe I just unmasked your identity, Captain Obvious.

 

[Liquid]

If Blu-Ray is going to be a niche, than HDTVs are going to be a niche as well.

Seriously the fact of the matter is when people eventually move to HDTV they will also be moving to Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray will grow as the HDTV market does and eventually when everyone has an HDTV in 2010+ or something everyone will have a Blu-Ray player as well.

but ummm...HDTV is already niche pretty much. i dont agree with ur "everyone will have an HDTV in 2010" statement either. i mean think about it. sony, nintendo and MS still have to sell RF adapters for their consoles. think about it.

 

[Kleegamefan]

Not at all actually...

Do you want me to drag out quotes from the thread??

 

[Fafalada]

if "blu ray" is going to be the new video format, they ought to change the name

Right, like we see people every day asking whether a new movie is out yet on Digital Versatiles.
People always used acronyms in the past, don't see why that would be changing. And at least acronym BRD can be pronounced without breaking your tongue (HDDVbzzrtdtffft).

 

[Tantric]

Again, there is no need to rebuy anything......There will be catalog and new release BRD movies, just like DVDs.....you can continue to buy DVDs and then buy select BRD movies if you wish.....the player will play them both anyway which is quite unlike DVD player which could not play VHS tapes.....

This still doesn't justify buying a movie for most people. Don't you agree that people will have more than one DVD player and TV in their home by then...why would I spend the extra money for a BRD that I can't even use outside of my PS3 in place like the bedroom?

 

[rastex]

Do you want me to drag out quotes from the thread??

I just read the entire thread, and while there was a good number of posters discounting the whitepaper few of them had substantive counterpoints. The best counter-argument was the one that mentioned how the whitepaper didn't address the cost of new lines (only redoing existing ones) and neglecting to calculate the decreasing cost over time. The other counters pretty much all stemmed from cynical conspiracy theories. And the author of the article has done a great job of backing up his statements, though he's talking about stuff that I don't really understand. But nobody has addressed his follow up posts, take that as you will.

 

[Ryudo]

I believe I just unmasked your identity, Captain Obvious.

Touche.

 

[Bodom78]

Meh, both formats suck as far as Im concerned. You know I have yet to meet anyone that even knows what Blu-Ray is, and when I do tell them, the first thing they say is "woh! I can burn heaps of movies onto that".

 

[Bebpo]

And in 2010, a new medium will be out which will make Blu Ray look like complete shit and blah blah blah...NEW FORMAT blah blah blah Blu Ray what? blah blah blah...

But....it won't.

See with Blu-Ray being 1080p, and hopefully getting a really nice bitrate while doing it...there really isn't any foreseeable reason for another VIDEO format (for computer media I can see new inventions all the time) until TV's going higher than 1080p come out and I think that's still 10-20 years away.

Rather than thinking of Blu-Ray like a Laserdisc, the way I see it is that DVD was a transition phase for getting people into digital media. It was reasonably priced, had a decent amount of space, and had good marketing. The problem is that even when dvd first came out it was already about to be outdated by the HDTVs on the market. This was fine because HDTV owners were such a niche group, but it was also an inevitable direction the market was going to go down and quite frankly dvd just doesn't cut it. The storage space is just way too small.

--It's great that DVDs took off because it got people to move into the digital age.
--It's kinda bad that DVDs took off as much as it did because DVD is a weak format that is totally outdated by todays standards and it's going to be really tough to ween people off of it.

Basically like the topic title says, if Blu-Ray doesn't win then nothing and nobody does. All it would mean is that people would be stuck watching ugly looking dvds on their HDTVs and being pissed off that there isn't any way to watch films at high quality besides recording HD material off TV with a Tivo or something.

Maybe it's just because I'm a videophile, but ever since I got an HDTV I can't stand dvds anymore. When I watched FF7:AC dvd the other day I couldn't help but think "god I wish this was in 1080". 480p movies suck especially with the medium to low quality bitrate many dvds run at >_<

 

[Diablos]

The thing that sucks about Blu-Ray is how much copy protection is built in. And also, how the firmware can detect, upon being updated by watching new movies, if you have actually played a copied Blu-Ray disc.

 

[Panajev2001a]

The thing that sucks about Blu-Ray is how much copy protection is built in. And also, how the firmware can detect, upon being updated by watching new movies, if you have actually played a copied Blu-Ray disc.

HD-DVD will be just as DRM-full as Blu-Ray IMHO if not in some cases worse: if there is one player I do not trust to play nice to consumers is Warner.

 

[Kleegamefan]

HD-DVD will be just as DRM-full as Blu-Ray IMHO if not in some cases worse: if there is one player I do not trust to play nice to consumers is Warner.

QFT....at by that I mean quoted for truth...not Quit Fucking Trolling

 

[DopeyFish]

warner? I'd be more afraid of universal personally.

 

[Blimblim]

HD-DVD will be just as DRM-full as Blu-Ray IMHO if not in some cases worse: if there is one player I do not trust to play nice to consumers is Warner.

Well Warner certainly did not support Divx (not the codec) back in the days, that's a good point in my mind. Remember that Disney/Fox/Paramount all entered the DVD market really late because they wanted to push Divx instead.

 

[Panajev2001a]

QFT....at by that I mean quoted for truth...not Quit Fucking Trolling

You better K. man .

.

 

[kaching]

People always used acronyms in the past, don't see why that would be changing. And at least acronym BRD can be pronounced without breaking your tongue (HDDVbzzrtdtffft).

Even better, the official acronym for Blu-Ray discs is BD.

 

[Agisthos]

I hope Blueray and HD-DVD dont become the SACD and DVD-A of the video world.

 

[open_mouth_]

I hope they come out with a hybrid HD/Blue Ray/DVD player to play all the discs on the market. This way, I could enjoy HD movies no matter which format.

 

[Borys]

I hope Blueray and HD-DVD dont become the SACD and DVD-A of the video world.

Interesting comment and not out of the realm of possibility.