So Forward Unto Dawn then. Unless they take a big risk. But at the rate at which the franchise is losing mindshare in the public (relatively quickly), the longer the wait the less they'll get as a return.
Should have been done 5 years ago at the latest.
More on topic; COD4/MW2 would be great flicks if done properly. COD4 especially has a lot of unique set pieces that may translate well onto camera, and unlike MW2 it isn't 100% Red Dawn implausible.
Forward Unto Dawn had an $8.5m to $10m budget. They could definitely do a good bit higher than that at least. Something in the $60-90m range even. But if I remember correctly, back in the day MS was wanting a budget that would put it among one of the most expensive films ever.
You're right though, it really should have happened sooner, and it's just going to get harder now.
As far as these CoD movies go, the thing is... I don't really get the point. It's going to be like Battleship or Ouija. It's going to be an "adaptation" in name only. It's just going to be a war movie from a less talented director than usual. I get why Activision wants to milk it, but still.