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[QuicheFontaine]

So, the UK is putting it's continuing EU membership to the vote in a public referendum on the 23rd of June. This is the official thread for anything Brexit related, including news, polls and associated commentary up to and including the big day itself.

So what's a "Brexit"?

"Brexit" is simply a portmanteau of "Britain" and "exit", the two words being smushed together in that fairly obnoxious way that the media likes to do.

Other -exits include Grexit, Nexit and Czexit (all excellent words for scrabble).

Who can vote?

Basically the same rules as for a UK general election. British citizens, Irish and Commonwealth citizens resident in the UK can vote, plus expats that have been abroad less than 15 years.

If you are an expat overseas, you should be able to vote by post. But I would register for that sooner rather than later!

Citizens of other EU countries resident in the UK don't get a vote unless they're Irish, or from Cyprus / Malta (by virtue of their Commonwealth membership).

Here's a BBC page that explains it: linky.

Where can I get the impartial facts about this?

Erm...that's a bit tricky. A lot of media outlets (and particularly newspapers) have already backed a 'side', and so impartiality can be hard to come by. I'm not going to give any recommended media sites in this OP other than the BBC, which I think most people will agree at least try to be impartial.

I hope everyone feels free to post articles from any source (with the obvious exception of banned sites) in order to foster debate.

What are the official campaign groups for each side?

Excellent question! Britain Stronger in Europe and Labour in for Britain for REMAIN, and Leave.EU, Vote Leave, Grassroots Out and Labour Leave for LEAVE. (credit to Uzzy)

Alright whatever, I don't really care about that anyway. What do people who I recognise from the telly think?

Well, in the REMAIN corner we have:

- current Prime Minister (alleged tax cheat and pig fornicator) David Cameron

- Communist, Queen-hater, and purchaser of suits from Primark, leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn (some people think he's not really all that pro-EU, but I'm bunging him here because it's the party position, and to keep Dave company). UPDATE (14-04-16): Jezza has made a speech stating that his support for the EU is "not half hearted"!.

In the LEAVE corner we have:

- "legend", national oaf, and Dave's rich chum from uni Boris Johnson

- sentient pint glass attached to a human "host" body Nigel Farage.

If you're unable to make up your own mind, any of the above will be happy to tell you how you should vote.

Cheers! Wait, when was the vote again?

Pay attention you cretin, I told you about 2 minutes ago - it's on 23 June 2016. You should receive your polling card soon telling you where to vote (you won't need to the card to actually vote though, just turn up).

I hereby declare the Brexit OT open! Let me know of any extra stuff that should be added to the OP.


Predictions

Dambrosi - 70% REMAIN, 30% LEAVE
Cobalt Izuna - 65% REMAIN, 35% LEAVE
phisheep - 60% REMAIN, 40% LEAVE
Broken Joystick - 57% REMAIN, 43% LEAVE
FliXFantatier - 57% REMAIN, 43% LEAVE
uncleniccius - 57% REMAIN, 43% LEAVE
milanbaros - 56% REMAIN, 44% LEAVE
T-Rex. - 56% REMAIN, 44% LEAVE
Dan27 - 55% REMAIN, 45% LEAVE
Tak3n - 55% REMAIN, 45% LEAVE
Bo-locks - 54% REMAIN, 46% LEAVE
ferrasvansen - 54% REMAIN, 46% LEAVE
Exterminieren - 53% REMAIN, 47% LEAVE
JonathanEx - 53% REMAIN, 47% LEAVE
Lego Boss - 52% REMAIN, 48% LEAVE
Beefy - 51% REMAIN, 49% LEAVE
Crab - 51% REMAIN, 49% LEAVE

liquidtmd - 50% REMAIN, 50% LEAVE
PVJ3 - 50% REMAIN, 50% LEAVE

QuicheFontaine - 49% REMAIN, 51% LEAVE
Psychotext - 48% REMAIN, 52% LEAVE
Rourkey - 48% REMAIN, 52% LEAVE
Roberto Larcos - 47% REMAIN, 53% LEAVE
cyberheater - 46% REMAIN, 54% LEAVE
danowat - 46% REMAIN, 54% LEAVE
Chinner - 40% REMAIN, 60% LEAVE

Shout out to JonathanEx for compiling all of the predictions!

Started compiling.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Atr8Mb1up4xLLJXJT1OqPgnqBEF_4iBz0Dbvy9mDWr0/edit#gid=0

 

[Chinner]

Please vote out of the EU to stop terrorists, so that we can smoke in pubs again and also have British jobs for British white people

 

[Kathian]

Missing out a good few people on both sides, no? I mean DC is clearly leading remain but Leave is a bit different and Boris seems to have ducked away recently. Suzanne Evans right now I feel is the best face of Leave.

 

[Jezbollah]

Cheers QF, nice.

Subscribed!

 

[Uzzy]

No link to the UKIP Calypso, the new national anthem after we vote leave? For shame.

I'd consider throwing up some links to the major groups on both sides, Britain Stronger in Europe and Labour in for Britain for the In side, and Leave.EU, Vote Leave, Grassroots Out and Labour Leave for the Out side.

 

[Dazzler]

Hoping Britain votes to remain in

It'll get real messy in Europe if they leave the EU

 

[TheOnlyOneHeEverFeared]

I have no idea which way I'm gonna vote right now. I'm out of the loop right now not living in the UK, so all I have is whats on the tv really.

 

[Sloane]

Can the EU vote if they want to keep the UK, too?

 

[JonathanEx]

If you are looking for a bit of fact fun, I'd recommend Full Fact, which check a lot of claims and are crowdfunding to better cover the referrendum.

 

[Izuna]

I am not a fan of Brexit, but I can't wait to listen to the debates. I won't miss this vote.

 

[Real Hero]

all the dodgiest fuckers, Nigel, Boris and Galloway are on the leave side, so fuck that

 

[Jimbob Smalls]

all the dodgiest fuckers, Nigel, Boris and Galloway are on the leave side, so fuck that

How I see it is the debate is like having two piles of turds and trying to figure out which pile smells worst whilst they both get mashed in your face.

This vote isn't about the people canvassing though, alas a lot will struggle to see past that.

 

[Walshicus]

When I see a politician arguing for Out who doesn't have an agenda to curb worker/consumer rights or otherwise regress the countries back to a state that better benefits a handful at the expense of the majority... Well that'll be the day.

 

[*Splinter]

How I see it is the debate is like having two piles of turds and trying to figure out which pile smells worst whilst they both get mashed in your face.

This vote isn't about the people canvassing though, alas a lot will struggle to see past that.

As long as the likes of Farage and Boris want us to leave - good.

 

[Frankfurter]

Just out of curiosity, whatever gets the absolute majority in the popular vote wins?

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Just out of curiosity, whatever gets the absolute majority in the popular vote wins?

Yeah, since we're not voting for MPs or the like.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Just out of curiosity, whatever gets the absolute majority in the popular vote wins?

Maybe I should have put that in the OP. Yes, the threshold is 50% +1 vote to win. No turnout requirement AFAIK.

 

[ScHlAuChi]

Enjoy your Splendid Isolation!

 

[Chittagong]

Lol , that's a pretty heavy handedly Labour-slanted OP

 

[Mii]

So what does the latest polling suggest will happen? Is Britian as obsessed with polling as the US?

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I'm calling this for 55/45 split towards Remain at the end of the day. It's dicey though. A lot will depend on exactly what demographics end up voting. The more young voters who turn out, the more likely Remain is to win.

A good Remain win will also have huge knock-ons for British politics - UKIP collapsing and the Conservatives entering a civil war phase.

Leave winning would be a lot of immediate heads rolling from the centre-leaning Conservatives. Not as immediate an impact. The real impact would be the likely recession.

 

[Daria Morgendorffer]

Lol , that's a pretty heavy handedly Labour-slanted OP

I read the OP another time after this comment and, no not really? It seems pretty impartial.

 

[Hasney]

My move out of the country may not be happening, although voting out may make me just find something else to do.

So what does the latest polling suggest will happen? Is Britian as obsessed with polling as the US?

The polling was so wrong for our general election that I barely care about polling until the exit poll.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I read the OP another time after this comment and, no not really? It seems pretty impartial.

It's a bit snarky and should at least mention the SNP and LD positions, but otherwise it's fine.

The polling was so wrong for our general election that I barely care about polling until the exit poll.

There's been a lot of reflection by the polling companies on GE2015. Ukpollingreport has some great writeups.

One really interesting thing about the polling in this referendum is that telephone and online polling is showing different results. Telephone polls seem to squeeze the Don't Knows more into Remain, whereas online polls don't have that squeeze effect, showing the two sides neck and neck.

My belief is that, unless Leave generates a really convincing and effective argument - which I don't think they can - people will simply choose to Remain as much out of inertia as a belief in the EU.

 

[Hasney]

Brexit is also the worst name of all time. May as well have called it Europegateghazi or some bollocks.

Or I'll just append Br to everything British like Richard Ayoade. Eat Breef.

There's been a lot of reflection by the polling companies on GE2015. Ukpollingreport has some great writeups.

One really interesting thing about the polling in this referendum is that telephone and online polling is showing different results. Telephone polls seem to squeeze the Don't Knows more into Remain, whereas online polls don't have that squeeze effect, showing the two sides neck and neck.

My belief is that, unless Leave generates a really convincing and effective argument - which I don't think they can - people will simply choose to Remain as much out of inertia as a belief in the EU.

Got a link to any? That might be an interesting read.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Lol, I don't think I've been accused of a Labour bias before. Apologies if the OP came across like that though, I tried to be non-partisan.

As for SNP and LD positions, I honestly just got tired of typing on my iPad - it wasn't a malicious omission. I will try and add more later, or if people want to do summarising posts I'll just copy and paste them, like I did with Uzzy's links.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

Lol, I don't think I've been accused of a Labour bias before. Apologies if the OP came across like that though, I tried to be non-partisan.

As for SNP and LD positions, I honestly just got tired of typing on my iPad - it wasn't a malicious omission. I will try and add more later, or if people want to do summarising posts I'll just copy and paste them, like I did with Uzzy's links.

If you add those, you'd probably have to add DUP. Firstly to balance it out a little bit, secondly because they actually have as many seats in Parliament as the Lib Dems.

 

[Best]

I'm voting remain because Jamie Vardy deserves a shot at the champions league next year

 

[dapperbandit]

I don't believe a netural source exists anywhere.

But that's partly because nobody knows exactly what would happen if we left.

My gut tells me this is some kind of faux pas but I came across this petition yesterday which may be of interest to those voting to exit:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/116762

 

[QuicheFontaine]

If you add those, you'd probably have to add DUP. Firstly to balance it out a little bit, secondly because they actually have as many seats in Parliament as the Lib Dems.

Amazing. I read that all the Lib Dem MPs can fit in a Mazda Bongo nowadays.

I don't believe a netural source exists anywhere.

But that's partly because nobody knows exactly what would happen if we left.

My gut tells me this is some kind of faux pas but I came across this petition yesterday which may be of interest to those voting to exit:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/116762

Signed that this afternoon after receiving Dave's pamphlet at lunchtime

 

[Roberto Larcos]

I'm voting remain because Jamie Vardy deserves a shot at the champions league next year

Legitmate question, would he get even a temporary travel visa with a criminal record? Would footballers need a work visa to play in the CL?

 

[Daffy Duck]

I'm voting remain because Jamie Vardy deserves a shot at the champions league next year

It wouldn't change the football would it?

 

[moojito]

I understand that whatever the outcome of this is, the snp are demanding a new Scottish independence referendum (part of the "constant re-votes until we get the result we want!" strategy), as clearly Scotland wanted the other result from what England gets.

 

[Chittagong]

I read the OP another time after this comment and, no not really? It seems pretty impartial.

Cameron, Boris and Farage descriptions are a bit more colourful than the sober Corbyn description, it could have used some commie flavour for example

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Cameron, Boris and Farage descriptions are a bit more colourful than the sober Corbyn description, it could have used some commie flavour for example

Ok ok, updated, just for you ;-)

 

[sohois]

It wouldn't change the football would it?

Well, there are a bunch of EU players that would need to apply for work permits in the PL and lower leagues, and a good chunk of them wouldn't get one with the current rules.

 

[Chittagong]

Ok ok, updated, just for you ;-)

Lol, pissing myself at the Primark bit

 

[Huw_Dawson]

If you add those, you'd probably have to add DUP. Firstly to balance it out a little bit, secondly because they actually have as many seats in Parliament as the Lib Dems.

I'd agree there.

Depending on the poll at the moment though, the LDs are anywhere between 5 and 10%, and are tracking to 16% in the locals - so in terms of influence they're close to equal with UKIP. (One estimate I saw was the LDs gaining about 200 councillors this time around - a good news story like that may well bounce them up above UKIP in the polls at least for a while, which would affect the campaign.) The DUP is obviously a lot less influential in the grand scheme of things outside of Northern Ireland.

I'd just put a line on each side mentioning the smaller parties. LDs, SNP, Greens and Plaid are all Remain.

 

[CharmingCharlie]

I would like to object in the strongest possible terms about Corbyn's description :-

- Communist, Queen-hater, and purchaser of suits from Primark, leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn (some people think he's not really all that pro-EU, but I'm bunging him here because it's the party position, and to keep Dave company).

In a topic that is supposed to foster an open dialogue it is clearly biased in favour of us voting to stay in the EU. I mean how else would you explain your little omission that Corbyn is a known terrorist sympathiser. I know he is cos Davy "oink oink" Cameron said so.

My own personal view is that "we are fucked one way if we stay in Europe and we are fucked another way if we leave Europe". That being said I reckon it is only a matter of time before the UK leaves the EU. So might as well get it over with now. I will be voting to leave the EU and can I say that Davy "oink oink" Cameron has been doing a marvellous job this week boosting the "leave" campaign with all his dodgy shit that he tried to hide.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

My own personal view is that "we are fucked one way if we stay in Europe and we are fucked another way if we leave Europe". That being said I reckon it is only a matter of time before the UK leaves the EU. So might as well get it over with now. I will be voting to leave the EU and can I say that Davy "oink oink" Cameron has been doing a marvellous job this week boosting the "leave" campaign with all his dodgy shit that he tried to hide.

Care to elaborate on how we're "fucked up one way if we stay in Europe"?

 

[Lucreto]

Well, there are a bunch of EU players that would need to apply for work permits in the PL and lower leagues, and a good chunk of them wouldn't get one with the current rules.

Then the club's need to get travel visas for every away match so ticket prices might go up.

 

[Stare-Bear]

As a Dutch man living in Wales, I read a lot of Dutch news sites. Europe is shitting themselves at the moment. If we leave, they lose their strongest ally. Eastern Europe will get more voting power within the Union.

Most articles say that the British economy will either shrink or grow by 1%. It's not the Brits that will be affected, it's Europe itself.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

As a Dutch man living in Wales, I read a lot of Dutch news sites. Europe is shitting themselves at the moment. If we leave, they lose their strongest ally. Eastern Europe will get more voting power within the Union.

Most articles say that the British economy will either shrink or grow by 1%. It's not the Brits that will be affected, it's Europe itself.

Holland, Denmark and the UK should all quit and make our own club.

 

[sohois]

Holland, Denmark and the UK should all quit and make our own club.

Have you seen what they call a sandwich in those countries? We couldn't possibly ally with such heathens

 

[CharmingCharlie]

Care to elaborate on how we're "fucked up one way if we stay in Europe"?

It is my belief that a vote to stay in Europe will drastically weaken the UK's ability to stand up to some of the bat shit insane crap Brussels comes out with. I can easily see it now, every single time the UK says anything remotely negative he will get "well you fucking voted to stay in so tough shit, matey" .

I am not a big fan of a United States of Europe but I can easily see the UK voting to stay in Europe will light a fire under the idea and will actually help that rubbish actually happen.

Holland, Denmark and the UK should all quit and make our own club.

Ohhhhh yes with black jack and hookers a plenty.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Ohhhhh yes with black jack and hookers a plenty.

We can provide the blackjack and Holland can provide the hookers. Not sure what the Danes are bringing to the table though. Bacon? Tuborg?

 

[Hasney]

It is my belief that a vote to stay in Europe will drastically weaken the UK's ability to stand up to some of the bat shit insane crap Brussels comes out with. I can easily see it now, every single time the UK says anything remotely negative he will get "well you fucking voted to stay in so tough shit, matey" .

I am not a big fan of a United States of Europe but I can easily see the UK voting to stay in Europe will light a fire under the idea and will actually help that rubbish actually happen.

Like what batshit insane stuff? Half the time people quote that and come up with things that were never passed or looking at sources, seems to be literally made up, like Boris Johnson wanting to recycle his teabags.... He actually can.

Not saying you don't have any specific examples that are true, but when "batshit stuff from Brussels" is brought up, it can go either way.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

It is my belief that a vote to stay in Europe will drastically weaken the UK's ability to stand up to some of the bat shit insane crap Brussels comes out with. I can easily see it now, every single time the UK says anything remotely negative he will get "well you fucking voted to stay in so tough shit, matey" .

I am not a big fan of a United States of Europe but I can easily see the UK voting to stay in Europe will light a fire under the idea and will actually help that rubbish actually happen.

Us voting to remain in Europe actually doesn't affect our ability as a member state to push forwards our national priorities in any legal terms. In fact, I'd argue that Leave damages our ability to push forwards our national priorities with regards to Europe much more - either we are cut adrift, fighting to re-establish pre-existing trade deals and isolated politically in Europe, or we end up like Norway, eating EU legislation and immigration laws without any ability to vote on those policies.

We have a strong voice within Europe via the Council and the Parliament. And, although I do think it's a bit of a bozo renegotiation, Cameron *did* prove you could get some reform directly out of Europe via applying a bludgeon to country leaders. I think the issue was more the competence of the PM there rather than the failures of Europe.

As you might also know, the big hubbub around Cameron's renegotiation featured us being opted-out of the "ever closer union" - although I don't honestly think we'll see a United States of Europe. We have a get-out clause if the stuff we really don't like about that idea started to happen. We always have, of course - again I think the renegotiation was a PR stunt - but it illustrates that the UK does have quite a lot of power and influence over the EU, which we lose if we vote Leave.

There are definitely points to think about.

 

[DECK'ARD]

I imagine this will go along similar lines to the Scottish referendum.

In the absence of a strong argument to leave people will vote for the status-quo. Too much uncertainty.

 

[CharmingCharlie]

Like what batshit insane stuff? Half the time people quote that and come up with things that were never passed or looking at sources, seems to be literally made up, like Boris Johnson wanting to recycle his teabags.... He actually can.

Not saying you don't have any specific examples that are true, but when "batshit stuff from Brussels" is brought up, it can go either way.

How about the Euro, that was a pretty bat shit insane idea that thankfully the UK was able to stay out of (not before the lovely ERM crapped all over us first, mind you).

We have a strong voice within Europe via the Council and the Parliament. And, although I do think it's a bit of a bozo renegotiation, Cameron *did* prove you could get some reform directly out of Europe via applying a bludgeon to country leaders. I think the issue was more the competence of the PM there rather than the failures of Europe.

We don't have a "strong voice" in Europe, they pay us lip service as it is. Whenever the UK objects to something there is usually a lot of argy bargy and "the bloody UK again whinging" and then they go "fine have a veto now let us get on with our shit will ya".

The last "re-negotiation" by Cameron was pathetic. The EU did not take any concerns on board they didn't offer anything meaningful. It was just a "oh here are a couple of vague promises and a half arsed veto (AGAIN) now shut up and let us get on with shit".

If we leave Europe then it won't matter if we have a voice with them or not. They can get on with running their little club whilst we get on with running our little bungalow. Obviously if we want to trade with them we can do so but on their terms (as it is with every country).